The Houston Astros are one of the most complete teams in baseball, which makes sense considering they've reached the World Series in two of the past three seasons, but if they have one hole at the major league level, it's starting pitching depth after the departures of Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley, and Corbin Martin. Conveniently, their farm system stands out for its incredible starting pitching depth, starting with the enigmatic Forrest Whitley and the rookie sensation Jose Urquidy and followed by enough arms that they'll need their own new sentence. In addition to Whitley and Urquidy, guys like Bryan Abreu, Brandon Bielak, Tyler Ivey, Cristian Javier, Rogelio Armenteros, and Brett Conine are knocking on the door to the big leagues, while guys like Luis Garcia, Nivaldo Rodriguez, and Jojanse Torres had breakout years down in A ball.
Even more impressive than their pitching depth is how they've built that depth – many of their best prospects came from the international market and signed for pennies on the dollar, and Javier, Garcia, Rodriguez, and Torres combined to sign for just $50,000. Throw in Urquidy, Abreu, and Armenteros, and that number only rises to $170,000 for eight legitimate pitching prospects, or about slot value for an eighth or ninth round draft prospect.
The story is very different on the hitting side. With Kyle Tucker graduated and Seth Beer in Arizona, there are very few impact prospects at the plate, and that makes breakouts from Abraham Toro and Jeremy Pena perhaps the best thing to happen to the system this year. Unfortunately, Toro and Pena are probably the only position players to significantly outplay their projections so far, and it's a light group overall.
Affiliates: AAA Round Rock Express, AA Corpus Christi Hooks, High A Fayetteville Woodpeckers, Class A Quad Cities River Bandits, short season Tri-City ValleyCats, complex level GCL and DSL Astros
Catcher
- Garrett Stubbs (2020 Age: 26-27): Stubbs, who will turn 27 in May, is pretty unremarkable as a prospect, but he does the little things right and with Robinson Chirinos departed via free agency, he has a chance to take over as the backup to Martin Maldonado in 2020. He was an eighth round pick out of USC back in 2015, then hit well in his first full season in 2016 (.304/.391/.469) to set himself up as one of the system's better catching prospects. He hasn't hit all that much since then, and in 2019 he slashed .240/.332/.397 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 38/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at AAA Round Rock, also hitting .200/.282/.286 with a 7/4 strikeout to walk ratio across 19 major league games. He doesn't hit for a ton of impact, but he puts the ball in play regularly and is tough to strike out, which should help him be at least a competent hitter at the major league level. Since he's almost certainly ticketed for a backup role, that's all that's really needed, as his defense is good behind the plate and he'll have no problem handling major league pitching from that end. He also runs pretty well for a catcher, which certainly doesn't hurt. His brother, C.J., is also a catcher and was the Astros' tenth round pick in 2019 and hit .249/.340/.459 in his successful pro debut.
- Korey Lee (2020 Age: 21-22): The Astros surprised some people by drafting Lee at the end of the first round in 2019, as many projected the Cal catcher to go in the back half of the top 100 picks or perhaps even later. He hit well in his pro debut, slashing .268/.359/.371 with three home runs and a 49/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games at short season Tri-City. He did that after putting up a big breakout in his junior season at Cal, in which he began to tap into his power much more consistently while maintaining good control of the strike zone. His lack of a track record means he comes with more risk than the typical first round college selection, though if Lee can continue on his upward trajectory, he could be a legitimate starting catcher with the pop to hit 20-25 home runs annually. Defensively, he has a cannon arm and is coming along with his glovework, but he needs more work there.
- Keep an eye on: Lorenzo Quintana, Michael Papierski, C.J. Stubbs, Nathan Perry
Corner Infield
- Abraham Toro (2020 Age: 23): Given his lack of real defensive value, Toro's bat has been fringy for a few years now, until he broke out in 2019 by slashing .324/.411/.527 with 17 home runs and an 82/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock, then hit .218/.303/.385 with two home runs and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 25 major league games. He generates a lot of hard contact from his slightly uppercut swing, and his patient approach at the plate enables him to find his pitches and drive them. Together, that's an outlook of 15-25 home runs per season and solid on-base percentages, which should be enough to profile wherever he ends up defensively. However, he's blocked in Houston by Alex Bregman at third base, by Yuli Gurriel at first base, and by Yordan Alvarez at DH. He's probably best off being traded somewhere he can have a path to starting, but even in Houston he should be a valuable role player who can pick up starts at multiple positions spelling the regular starters.
- J.J. Matijevic (2020 Age: 24): The Astros took Matijevic in the second competitive balance round out of Arizona in 2017, though because he's a borderline defensive liability, all of the pressure is on his bat. He slashed .277/.350/.538 with 22 home runs in his first full season in 2018, boosting his stock, but his rough 2019 pushed his stock in the other direction. A second failed non-PED drug test knocked him out for a month and a half, and when he was on the field, his bat played closer to average, as he slashed .251/.319/.441 with eleven home runs and a 101/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 games at High A Fayetteville and AA Corpus Christi. He's got some raw power from the left side, though his hit tool has been inconsistent and he hasn't quite gotten to it as consistently as perhaps he'd like. He's also a better hitter against right handed pitching, which combined with his lack of defensive value, means he might be ticketed to more of a platoon/bench role in the majors. He has experience in both the outfield and first base.
- Jake Adams (2020 Age: 24): Adams led all of Division I with 29 home runs for Iowa in 2017, but he lasted until the sixth round because power was just about all he offered. Fortunately, that power has played up, and he slashed .248/.311/.446 with 22 home runs and a 117/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A Fayetteville and AA Corpus Christi in 2019. While he still has swing and miss in his game, the strikeouts haven't been as big of an issue as perhaps they could have been, though he'll probably have to continue to refine his approach a bit in order to make it to the majors. If he does, he could be a nice platoon option with Matijevic as a right handed hitter.
- Keep an eye on: Taylor Jones, Colton Shaver, Joe Perez, Raider Uceta
Middle Infield
- Jeremy Pena (2020 Age: 22): The Astros drafted Pena in the third round in 2018 out of the University of Maine for his glove, hoping that he could just manage to hit enough to work his way up as a utility infielder. However, he ended up hitting for much more impact than originally expected, and in 2019 he slashed .303/.385/.440 with seven home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 90/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at Class A Quad Cities and High A Fayetteville. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he's begun to tap into it more with a more aggressive swing without hurting his plate discipline. He's found the barrel consistently and still hit .317 in High A, putting him ahead of schedule considering he didn't turn 22 until after the season. His real value is still in his defense, as he's very good at shortstop and will be able to handle the position every day in the majors if necessary. If he can repeat the offensive success he had in 2019 a couple of times, he could become the heir to Carlos Correa at shortstop in Houston, albeit without as much bat. If not, he still profiles well as a utility type.
- Freudis Nova (2020 Age: 20): Nova skipped over short season ball entirely in 2019, going straight from the Gulf Coast League up to Class A Quad Cities and slashing .259/.301/.369 with three home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 68/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games. He's much more about projection than current ability, though his ability to hold his own against older pitchers in the Midwest League was a nice sign for his future development. He's begun to tap some gap power, which should grow into over the fence power as he matures, and he makes consistent contact. Defensively, he's very good at shortstop and could be a plus defender at third base if he has to move there, which certainly buys the bat time to develop. He'll play all of 2020 at 20 years old with the chance to break out in High A.
- Grae Kessinger (2020 Age: 22): Kessinger was a really interesting second round pick out of Ole Miss in 2019 because almost the entirety of his value came from 30 game stretch in SEC play where he slashed .405/.472/.556 against college baseball's toughest competition. After being drafted, he slashed .232/.333/.308 with a pair of home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 36/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games at short season Tri-City and Class A Quad Cities. There's no question about Kessinger's hit tool, as he has proven he can control the strike zone and make quality contact against any level of advanced pitching, but he doesn't provide much else as of yet. There's not much power to speak of beyond some doubles and triples power, he doesn't run particularly well, and he might be a better fit for second base than for shortstop. If he can add a little pop, he has a shot at landing a starting second base job down the line, though otherwise he profiles pretty straightforwardly as a utility infielder.
- Luis Santana (2020 Age: 20-21): 2019 was a bit of a step back for Santana after he slashed .325/.430/.481 in 2017 and .348/.446/.471 in 2018, though he's still young and doesn't turn 21 until July. 2019 was also Santana's first year in the Astros organization after being acquired in the J.D. Davis trade, and he slashed .257/.337/.329 with two home runs and a 33/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games between short season Tri-City and AA Corpus Christi. It was a bit of a weird season for him, as he actually started the season up at AA, skipping multiple levels in the process, before being sent all the way back down to short season ball after slashing .228/.333/.263 in 18 games. He's just 5'8", but he plays hard and gets the most out of what he has, employing great plate discipline and feel for the barrel which makes what little power he has play up. I was obviously a bit more confident in him before his so-so 2019, but I still like him as a prospect with some upside and the ability to be a future second baseman, perhaps even a starter if he can get back on track. The Astros know a thing or two about undersized second basemen.
- Keep an eye on: Alex De Goti
Outfield
- Ronnie Dawson (2020 Age: 24-25): The Astros have a deep group of fringy outfielders in the upper minors between Dawson, Chas McCormick, Drew Ferguson, and Stephen Wrenn, though Dawson is the most interesting and he'll get the writeup. Drafted in the second round out of Ohio State in 2016, he's struggled more and more with strikeouts as he's moved through the minors and he slashed .207/.313/.385 with 17 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 152/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock in 2019. He has good solid power in his left handed swing that has produced 14, 16, and 17 home runs over the last three seasons and more than 20 doubles in each, though he also struck out 110, 130, and 152 times, respectively. That makes it hard to project him getting regular playing time in the big leagues, though with his combination of power and speed, he might stick out just a hair above the other guys at his level, at least for now.
- Cal Stevenson (2020 Age: 23): Stevenson was a tenth round pick out of Arizona by the Blue Jays in 2018, then hit a sensational .369/.511/.523 with 21 stolen bases in his pro debut. He skipped Class A entirely and was traded to the Astros as part of the mid-season Derek Fisher/Aaron Sanchez deal, slashing .288/.388/.384 with five home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 65/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between the two High A affiliates. He manages the strike zone exceptionally well, perhaps better than any hitter in this system, and that enables him to be an on-base machine day in and day out. He lacks impact at the plate, which is why is on-base skills are so critical, but his feel for the strike zone helps him find the barrel more often than not and hit for high averages. Stevenson is also a strong defender in center field and can steal a base, giving him a fourth outfielder projection.
- Jordan Brewer (2020 Age: 22-23): Brewer was the Astros' third round pick out of Michigan in 2019, though he slashed just .130/.161/.185 with a home run and a 6/2 strikeout to walk ratio across 16 games in his pro debut after a long run to the College World Series Championship against Vanderbilt. Though he performed well in the Big 10 and will turn 23 in August, Brewer is actually a bit more about projection than current ability, as he's raw around most of his game. He shows some power and lots of speed, giving him the chance to be an impact player if everything develops right. He does need to work on his plate discipline and finding the barrel against pro pitching, which he had a tough time doing in his brief pro debut, and he could use some refinements to better deploy his speed in the outfield and stick as a center fielder. That's the upside of a 15-20 homer bat with speed and defense, but it also comes with more risk than the typical college performer.
- Colin Barber (2020 Age: 19): Barber was drafted in the fourth round, right after Brewer, out of a Chico, California high school in 2019, then proceeded to hit .263/.387/.394 with two home runs and a 29/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League. As a high school bat, he's understandably raw, and his pro debut was more about learning to navigate pro pitching than it was about immediately hitting for impact. While he did have his share of strikeouts, he also drew his fair share of walks and got on base at a .387 clip, so we can call it a success in that regard. The next step for Barber, who will be just 19 for all of 2020, will be to start tapping the power in his quick left handed swing, which he certainly has the ability to do. It will take some time though and I wouldn't expect him to be knocking on the door to the majors any time soon.
- Keep an eye on: Chas McCormick, Drew Ferguson, Ross Adolph, Alex McKenna, Kenedy Corona, Rainier Rivas
Starting Pitching
- Forrest Whitley (2020 Age: 22): Whitley, a first round pick out of Alamo Heights High School in San Antonio in 2016, has been the most enigmatic prospect in the system ever since. His first full season in 2017 went about as well as possible, as he posted a 2.83 ERA and a 143/34 strikeout to walk ratio while reaching AA at just 19 years old, but his 2018 and 2019 seasons saw far from the same success. He missed most of 2018 for a combination of a drug suspension and nagging oblique problems, then pitched poorly in 2019 while missing time with shoulder problems. Overall, he had a 7.99 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP, and an 86/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings between the complex level Gulf Coast League, High A Fayetteville, AA Corpus Christi, and AAA Round Rock. With all those strikeouts, the stuff clearly wasn't the problem, but his previously solid-average command faded to well below average as he struggled to harness his explosive stuff. At his best, he sits comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds not one but two of the best breaking balls in the system in a curve and a slider, and his changeup has improved to the point where it too is a true out pitch. That all comes from a 6'7" frame that makes it tough to hit, so if he can get back to throwing strikes like he's capable of, he has true ace upside. The shoulder and command problems are certainly worrisome, though, and unfortunately there's still the chance he busts without ever becoming more than a back-end starter. I certainly would not give up on him yet though, and a shallow Houston rotation gives him every chance to make the big league club out of spring training if he starts throwing strikes again.
- Jose Urquidy (2020 Age: 24-25): We've all seen enough of Jose Urquidy to know exactly who he is, but he's technically still a prospect. In 2019, he burst onto the scene with a 4.46 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 134/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock, and he filled in effectively in the Houston rotation with a 3.95 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 40/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 innings – plus ten innings of one run ball and twelve strikeouts to two walks in the playoffs, including a dominant World Series Game Four win in Washington. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a decent curveball, but his changeup made him tough to square up as he placed it wherever he wanted it and sent batters flailing. That command also helps the rest of his stuff play up, and even with Lance McCullers returning and a bevy of prospects fighting for those last two spots in the rotation, Urquidy has the inside track and should stick as an Anibal Sanchez-type #4 starter.
- Bryan Abreu (2020 Age: 23): Abreu went from hard-throwing nobody in 2017 to legitimate impact prospect in 2018 by posting a 1.49 ERA and a 90/23 strikeout to walk ratio, then took another step forward by handling AA in 2019. Overall, he had a 4.83 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 126/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.1 innings at High A Fayetteville and AA Corpus Christi, and he also had a successful MLB debut by posting a 1.04 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 13/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.2 innings for the Astros, which helped him crack the team's ALCS roster. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and flashes a slider that can be sharp at times, but his real bread and butter is a power, downer curveball that's just about impossible to square up. His command comes and goes and his changeup needs work, but with the chance to crack the Houston rotation out of spring training, you can bet he'll be focusing hard on those two things over the offseason and in spring training. If he can improve one of the two, he can probably be a good starter, and if not, he still profiles well in the bullpen at present with that fastball/curveball combination.
- Brandon Bielak (2020 Age: 24): Bielak was an eleventh round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017, but he held a 1.91 ERA and a 173/44 strikeout to walk ratio between his pro debut and his first full season, putting himself firmly on the prospect map. He then effectively tackled the upper levels in 2019, posting a 4.22 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 119/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.2 innings at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock. He has no clear strengths or weaknesses, instead attacking hitters with a low 90's fastball and three good secondary pitches, commanding it all well but not to the point where you could call him a command artist. Even though he doesn't have Abreu's curveball or Urquidy's changeup and command, his lack of exploitable weaknesses means it all adds up to a well-rounded product that should fit well in the back half of the rotation in the near future if he can break through.
- Cristian Javier (2020 Age: 23): Nobody knew who Javier was when he signed for just $10,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, when he was already 18 years old, but they certainly do now after he's dominated literally everywhere he's gone with a career 2.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 33.8% strikeout rate over nearly 400 innings. In 2019, Javier posted a 1.74 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 170/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings at High A Fayetteville, AA Corpus Christi, and AAA Round Rock. Watching him pitch, nothing really stands out as remarkable, but hitters just can't seem to square him up. His fastball sits around 90 and can bump a bit higher, but its high spin rate makes it seem almost "invisible" leading to tons of swings and misses and pop outs. He mixes in a pair of good breaking balls in a slider and a curveball, and while his changeup isn't plus, it's coming along as well. His command comes and goes, but he's done a good enough job holding down the strike zone to where it hasn't been an issue yet. Overall, it's kind of a boom/bust profile at the major league level, but it will be really interesting to see if Javier can make that final leap into the big league rotation or if he ends up getting knocked to the bullpen, where his invisible fastball could be deadly.
- Tyler Ivey (2020 Age: 23-24): Due to the depth of starting pitching at the top of this system, Ivey is most likely ticketed for the bullpen, but he was so dominant in a small sample in 2019 that it's hard to rule him out just yet. His season got off to a bit of a slow start, as he was suspended briefly in May for using a foreign substance on his glove, then he missed a month and a half with elbow problems, but he returned in July and finished with a 1.38 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 68/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings at AA Corpus Christi with some rehab work in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at High A Fayetteville. He's a semi-hometown player who grew up on the east side of the DFW Metroplex, and he attended Texas A&M and Grayson Community College before being drafted in the third round in 2017. He has a bit of a funky delivery, but he's athletic enough to still throw strikes with his low to mid 90's fastball, big curveball, slider, and changeup, and he's seldom been hit hard as a pro. The injury in 2019 probably puts him a bit behind some of the other arms on this list, but a healthy and successful 2020 could put him into the thick of the rotation conversation late in the season should somebody falter or get hurt.
- Luis Garcia (2020 Age: 23): Garcia didn't sign until he was 20 years old in 2017, but he's taken his $10,000 signing bonus and hit the ground running. After posting a 2.00 ERA and a 98/41 strikeout to walk ratio in 2018, he put up a 2.98 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 168/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 108.2 innings at Class A Quad Cities and High A Fayetteville in 2019, adding a pair of dominant starts in the Carolina League playoffs to push him to 189 strikeouts on the season. He now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full set of secondary pitches, highlighted by a swing and miss changeup, though his command is fairly inconsistent. Given all the progress he made in 2019 stuff-wise, 2020 will be the year to focus on that command, and his current trajectory points to a spot somewhere in the back of the Houston rotation in 2021. If his command stalls, he could still profile in the bullpen by focusing on one of his breaking balls to play off his velocity.
- Peter Solomon (2020 Age: 23): Solomon was the Astros' fourth round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017, seven rounds before his teammate Brandon Bielak, and like Bielak he had a strong first full season in the Houston organization with a 2.32 ERA and a 114/32 strikeout to walk ratio. However, after allowing two runs on seven hits and four walks with 14 strikeouts in his first 7.2 innings at High A Fayetteville in 2019, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of the season. Solomon is a 6'4" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pair of good breaking balls, and while his command held him back in college, he improved that significantly in 2018 and was filling up the strike zone with average command. The stuff is good enough for him to be an impact starter, and maintaining the gains he made with his command will be absolutely imperative to making that projection become a reality. Everybody responds differently to surgery, but if he loses the strike zone again like he did in college, he probably profiles in the bullpen.
- Keep an eye on: Rogelio Armenteros, Brett Conine, Chad Donato, Cody Deason, Jairo Solis, Hunter Brown, Jayson Schroeder
Relief Pitching
- Enoli Paredes (2020 Age: 24): Paredes has moved quietly through this system, but it's hard not to notice him after he posted a 2.78 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 128/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings at High A Fayetteville and AA Corpus Christi in 2019. He's a skinny 5'11" right hander with a quick arm, one that produces low to mid 90's fastballs as a starter, and it's easy to see him sitting around 95-98 when he eventually becomes a full time reliever. He also adds a good slider that looks like a plus pitch at times, and out of the bullpen it could be consistently plus. His command is so-so, and I'm surprised the Astros have left him in the rotation for this long, but he has high upside as a very valuable reliever.
- Jojanse Torres (2020 Age: 24-25): The Astros are known for growing prospects out of nowhere, something Torres completely embodies as an international signee who didn't pitch professionally until he was almost 23 years old. He skipped a couple levels and spent 2019 in A ball, dominating to the tune of a 1.71 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 107/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.2 innings at Class A Quad Cities and High A Fayetteville. He sits easily in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider, which mid level hitters had no chance of hitting. Like many other Astros prospects, his command is still a work in progress, and that (combined with the fact that he'll be 25 in August) likely makes him a reliever, especially in this system deep in pitching. If moved to the 'pen, he could be up to 100 MPH with his fastball and sharpen that slider without worrying so much about command, and he could rocket up to the big leagues.
- Nivaldo Rodriguez (2020 Age: 23): Rodriguez, like pretty much every other arm in this system, came from absolutely nowhere, but his breakout 2019 gives the Astros yet another arm to figure into their long term pitching picture. In 2019, he posted a 2.40 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 114/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 innings at Class A Quad Cities and High A Fayetteville, though unlike many of the other arms in this system, he doesn't throw all that hard and sits in the low 90's with his fastball. He's derived his success from his excellent curveball, one that's right behind Bryan Abreu's as one of the best in the system, and that pitch alone gives him the floor of a middle reliever. A starter for most of 2019, the Astros shifted him to the bullpen in August, though I'm not sure if that was a permanent move or just for load management. Either way, his combination of low velocity and decent command means it'll be tough to remain a starter, especially in this system, and he'll probably be better off relying on that curveball out of the bullpen.
- Keep an eye on: Cionel Perez, Riley Ferrell, Willy Collado, Shawn Dubin, R.J. Freure, Jose Alberto Rivera
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