First off, steroids. My take on steroid users in the Hall has evolved over time, but it's also stayed the same in a lot of ways. I don't think cheaters deserve to be in the Hall, and for a while, I strongly opposed the induction of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens on that basis. I still do – the Hall is 90% about performance, but at least a small part should be about playing the game the right way, and I mean that in the loosest sense of the term, as in at the very least playing by the rules. Bonds and Clemens didn't meet that standard. However, neither did Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, or a lot of other Hall of Famers from that era who used amphetamines. And what about Hall of Famers like Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Piazza, who probably juiced but were never caught? The juicing question is something I'll never come to a satisfactory answer to, at least one up to my own satisfaction, so I landed on a compromise of sorts: I'll vote for Bonds and Clemens, but only in their tenth and final year of eligibility. That seems fair, I guess, right? Kind of? We'll go with that one.
Secondly, the Jeter-only ballots. A few writers have already released their ballots and showed that they voted only for Derek Jeter in the belief that he should be elected alone. Seriously?? Derek Jeter a) is not even close to being a Ruthian, Maysian, Ted Williams-ian inner-circle Hall of Famer, and b) far, far, far from the only deserving player on the ballot. Especially given that Larry Walker is in his last year of eligibility and can't simply "wait until next year" to get elected. Voting for Jeter alone might be the dumbest thing I've ever seen on a Hall of Fame ballot, and the bar was already pretty high on that one.
Now, here's my ballot, in the rough order of who I think is the most deserving. Wagner, Walker, and Schilling are all about equally deserving to me, so their order is more arbitrary. It's a shallower year for the HoF ballot and there are no true Griffey-like or Maddux-like standouts, and I'm a small Hall guy, so I went with six players.
1. Billy Wagner (1995-2010)
Career: 47-40, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 198.17 RE24, 1196/300 K/BB in 903 IP
Best season (1999): 4-1, 1.57 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 24.79 RE24, 124/23 K/BB in 74.2 IP
Billy Wagner is at least the third greatest closer of all time, and I'd even argue that he's number two behind Mariano Rivera alone. At the very least, I can't possibly wrap my head around any possible justification for electing Trevor Hoffman and leaving Wagner with less than 20% of the votes. Over the course of his 16 year career, he put up 13 seasons of at least 45 innings pitched, a sub-3.00 ERA, a sub-1.20 WHIP, and more than 50 strikeouts in relief. He did all this while pitching through the heart of the steroid era, and yet his career numbers still come up among the best ever. Among relievers with at least 500 innings pitched, he's fourth ERA (2.31), WHIP (1.00), and strikeout percentage (33.2%), despite all of those ahead of him in the latter category having pitched in a very different, much more strikeout-heavy era. He also has the second best relief-RE24 ever, behind only Mariano Rivera, meaning that he's kept more "expected runs" off the board than even Hoffman in more than 180 fewer innings. To say Wagner doesn't belong in the Hall is really to say that relievers in general don't belong in the Hall, because Rivera is the only one ever that we can confidently say was better.
2. Larry Walker (1989-2005)
Career: 383 HR, .313/.400/.565, 230 SB, 140 wRC+, 68.7 fWAR in 1988 games
Best season (1997): 49 HR, .366/.452/.720, 33 SB, 177 wRC+, 9.1 fWAR in 153 games
Walker is in his last season of eligibility, and it really shouldn't have taken this long. He hit nearly 400 home runs, held a .400 on-base percentage through his career, and stole over 200 bases while playing solid outfield defense. Of course some of those numbers are inflated by playing his home games at Coors Field, but really, could we stick some non-Hall of Famer in Coors Field from 1997-1999 and watch slash .369/.451/.689 over three full seasons? I'll answer that for you, no. And if we want to go to stats that alter for home park, Walker's 140 career wRC+ ranks 69th all time among players with at least 5000 plate appearances – that's ahead of mashers like Albert Belle (139), Reggie Jackson (139), and Vladimir Guerrero (136), among many others. Splitting his stats home vs road the traditional way, he did slash .348/.431/.637 with 215 home runs at home but also .278/.370/.495 with 168 home runs on the road – that's still a 336 home run pace with a high on-base percentage on the road, even though Coors Field has been shown to negatively affect hitters' road performance, not just positively impact their home stats. He's a Hall of Famer to me and a pretty clear one.
3. Curt Schilling (1988-2007)
Career: 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3116/711 K/BB in 3261 IP
Best season (2002): 23-7, 3.23 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 316/33 K/BB in 259.1 IP
A lot of people in the media won't vote for Curt Schilling because they don't like him. That's stupid and that's all I'm going to say on the matter. For a ten year period from 1995-2004, right through the heart of the steroid era, Schilling was untouchable for the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox, going 148-86 with a 3.25 ERA and a 2241/423 strikeout to walk ratio over 2123.2 innings. In that decade-long span, 92 pitchers threw at least 1000 innings, and Schilling's 3.25 mark over 2000+ innings ranked behind only Pedro Martinez (2.67), Randy Johnson (2.70), Kevin Brown (2.79), Greg Maddux (2.89), and John Smoltz (2.96), the latter of whom spent time time as a closer anyways. Over that span, Schilling also ranked third in strikeouts (behind Johnson and Martinez), reached 300 strikeouts in a season three times, and out-pitched Roger Clemens (3.46 ERA, 2116/768 K/BB). He was also effective for his ten non-prime years, and he finished his career with a 3.46 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and 3116 strikeouts in 3261 innings despite pitching straight through the heart of the steroid era. He was even more effective in the postseason, going 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 120/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 133.1 innings, picking up the 1993 NLCS MVP and the 2001 World Series MVP. To me, he's a no brainer.
4. Derek Jeter (1995-2014)
Career: 260 HR, .310/.377/.440, 358 SB, 119 wRC+, 73.0 fWAR in 2747 games
Best season (1999): 24 HR, .349/.438/.552, 19 SB, 156 wRC+, 7.4 fWAR in 158 games
Jeter's Hall of Fame case to me is more about longevity than peak value. Aside from a couple seasons here and there, he was never truly elite, reaching 5.0 fWAR in a season just five times in twenty years, but he was a consistently above average player for a very long time and put up 13 straight seasons with at least 3.4 fWAR from 1997-2009. He also had an extensive postseason career with a .308/.374/.465 line, 20 home runs, and 18 stolen bases (121 wRC+) in 158 games, about in line with his career averages, and he won five World Series as part of some stacked Yankees teams that also included Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera and Mike Mussina. Media coverage aside, while his on-field play looked pretty borderline Hall of Fame level for much of his career, the end result was well over 3000 hits, 500 doubles, 250 home runs, 350 stolen bases, 1000 walks, and 73.0 total fWAR over 20 years. The longevity and consistency he displayed earned him his spot in the Hall.
5. Andruw Jones (1996-2012)
Career: 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.0 fWAR in 2196 games
Best season (2000): 36 HR, .303/.366/.541, 21 SB, 127 wRC+, 7.7 fWAR in 161 games
Jones doesn't get nearly the attention he deserves on this ballot, especially with the way voters talk about a similar player, Omar Vizquel. While Vizquel was an all-time glove with a mediocre bat, Jones was an all-time glove with an above average bat. While he wasn't a first tier or even a second tier hitter in his time, he was still a very valuable bat that was at least 12% better than league average eight times in nine years from 1998-2006. He also put up four straight 20-20 seasons, totaled seven 30+ home run seasons, and topped out with a 134 wRC+ in 2005. Of course, those offensive stats only qualify him for the Hall of Very Good, but when your glove is as absolutely elite as his is, I'd call him a Hall of Famer. Fangraphs only began tracking UZR in 2002, which cuts out five full seasons of his career, but his 126.4 UZR still ranks second only to Ichiro since then and his 17.4 UZR per 150 games is first by a long shot over second place Mookie Betts (14.3) and by an even longer shot over third place Jason Heyward (11.9). It's hard to prove, but there's a case to be made that Jones is up there with Willie Mays as one of the top couple of defensive outfielders ever to play the game, and unlike Omar Vizquel, he can actually hit.
6. Scott Rolen (1996-2012)
Career: 316 HR, .281/.364/.490, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 69.9 fWAR in 2038 games
Best season (2004): 34 HR, .314/.409/.598, 159 wRC+, 9.0 fWAR in 142 games
I'm a small-Hall guy, and Rolen is pretty borderline for me. On this shallow ballot though, I'll include him in my sixth and final slot that I'm using. Rolen wasn't necessarily elite on either side of the ball – he was a very good hitter and a very good defender. Does that equal Hall of Fame? It's really close, especially since his career barely cracked 2000 games. I'll go with yes for now, as he still finished with over 500 doubles, 300 home runs, 100 stolen bases, a high on-base percentage, and great defense. From 1997-2004, an eight year period where he slashed ..287/.379/.524 with 222 home runs and 91 stolen bases, he was third in all of baseball with 48.0 fWAR, trailing only Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez and topping guys like Chipper Jones, Jeff Bagwell, Derek Jeter, and Manny Ramirez in their primes. He didn't have the longevity of some of his counterparts, but the more you look at his case, the harder it is to say that Rolen is not a Hall of Famer.
Close Calls
- Bobby Abreu (1996-2014)
Career: 288 HR, .291/.395/.475, 400 SB, 129 wRC+, 59.8 fWAR in 2425 games
Best season (2004): 30 HR, .301/.428/.544, 40 SB, 148 wRC+, 5.7 fWAR in 159 games
Abreu, like Rolen, is so close, but he falls just a bit short for me. He was a great player with a power/speed/on-base combination that few could match and he rarely got hurt, but the whole package is just a bit light for the Hall of Fame. He wasn't an elite power hitter, hitting more than 25 home runs in a season just twice, he wasn't an elite base stealer, cracking 35 stolen bases just twice, and he was just an okay defender in right field. Now on the other hand, he was a great on-base player who finished near .400 for his career. He was never elite, but he had an on-base percentage above .400 eight times in nine years from 1998-2006 and only narrowly missed it with a .393 mark in 2001, he had seven straight 20-20 seasons from 1999-2005 (and two more in 2008 and 2010), and he was a two time 30-30 player. He's a shoo-in for the Hall of Very Good, but unfortunately, he just misses the Hall of Fame for me.
- Todd Helton (1997-2013)
Career: 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 54.9 fWAR in 2247 games
Best season (2000): 42 HR, .372/.463/.698, 5 SB, 162 wRC+, 8.3 fWAR in 160 games
Helton is another close one because he's probably the greatest player in Rockies history (while Larry Walker beat him in production, Helton made up for it in longevity with the team). And through 2005, even though he was a first baseman playing in Coors Field, he hit plenty enough to be on a Hall of Fame track with a .337/.433/.607 line, 271 home runs, and 44.3 fWAR in 1279 games. However, because all of his talent was tied to his bat and because his 148 wRC+ was 14th in baseball from 1998-2005, he probably had to keep hitting after his 32nd birthday in 2005 in order to get himself over the hump. However, from 2006 to the end of his career in 2013, he slashed .289/.388/.448 with 98 home runs and 10.6 fWAR over those final 968 games. Those aren't awful numbers for the end of a career, but for a first baseman who wasn't elite with the glove (though he was solid there for much of his career), I'd like to see a bit longer of a prime than eight years, or at least not see him taper off so quickly.
- Omar Vizquel (1989-2012)
Career: 80 HR, .272/.336/.352, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.5 fWAR in 2968 games
Best season (1999): 5 HR, .333/.397/.436, 42 SB, 115 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR in 144 games
To me, Andruw Jones is a Hall of Famer, but Omar Vizquel is not. Both were elite, perhaps all-time defenders, but Jones could hit (111 wRC+) and Vizquel could not (83 wRC+). His glove was truly elite, and he's up there with Ozzie Smith as one of the greatest defensive shortstops of all time. And while Smith wasn't a great hitter either (90 wRC+), he played at a time where the game was a bit more pitcher-friendly and teams weren't scoring five to six runs a game. Vizquel's complete lack of power and average on-base skills were a black hole in the Mariners, Indians, and Giants lineups he was a part of when every team was launching the ball out of the park. Even in his best offensive season, 1999, he still failed to reach a .400 on-base percentage. I completely respect Vizquel's glove and I searched his offensive stats looking for something I could consider "good enough" to put him in the Hall, but stealing 30 bases a year isn't enough.
- Andy Pettitte (1995-2013)
Career: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB in 3316 IP
Best season (2005): 17-9, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 171/41 K/BB in 222.1 IP
Pettitte is certainly in the 90's/00's Hall of Very Good rotation, as he was as reliable a mid-rotation starter as they came for the Yankees and Astros who also popped for a couple of ace-like seasons in 1997 (18-7, 2.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) and 2005 (17-9, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP). He threw over 3000 innings while keeping his ERA under 4.00 despite pitching through the steroid era, threw at least 175 innings in 15 separate seasons, and had plenty of postseason success (19-11, 3.81 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 183/76 K/BB in 276.2 IP). However, in an era that also included Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, Roy Halladay, and Johan Santana, it's hard to justify Pettitte as a Hall of Famer despite being a mid-rotation talent for most of his career.
Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens: See top of article.
Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa, Manny Ramirez: These players all have varying levels of allegations of steroid use, and while a lot of it is speculation, they all have fairly borderline cases even without considering the steroid usage. I'm both extremely anti-cheater and anti-speculation at the same time, but with their cases already being borderline, the steroid usage knocks them off my ballot.
3. Curt Schilling (1988-2007)
Career: 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3116/711 K/BB in 3261 IP
Best season (2002): 23-7, 3.23 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 316/33 K/BB in 259.1 IP
A lot of people in the media won't vote for Curt Schilling because they don't like him. That's stupid and that's all I'm going to say on the matter. For a ten year period from 1995-2004, right through the heart of the steroid era, Schilling was untouchable for the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox, going 148-86 with a 3.25 ERA and a 2241/423 strikeout to walk ratio over 2123.2 innings. In that decade-long span, 92 pitchers threw at least 1000 innings, and Schilling's 3.25 mark over 2000+ innings ranked behind only Pedro Martinez (2.67), Randy Johnson (2.70), Kevin Brown (2.79), Greg Maddux (2.89), and John Smoltz (2.96), the latter of whom spent time time as a closer anyways. Over that span, Schilling also ranked third in strikeouts (behind Johnson and Martinez), reached 300 strikeouts in a season three times, and out-pitched Roger Clemens (3.46 ERA, 2116/768 K/BB). He was also effective for his ten non-prime years, and he finished his career with a 3.46 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and 3116 strikeouts in 3261 innings despite pitching straight through the heart of the steroid era. He was even more effective in the postseason, going 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 120/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 133.1 innings, picking up the 1993 NLCS MVP and the 2001 World Series MVP. To me, he's a no brainer.
4. Derek Jeter (1995-2014)
Career: 260 HR, .310/.377/.440, 358 SB, 119 wRC+, 73.0 fWAR in 2747 games
Best season (1999): 24 HR, .349/.438/.552, 19 SB, 156 wRC+, 7.4 fWAR in 158 games
Jeter's Hall of Fame case to me is more about longevity than peak value. Aside from a couple seasons here and there, he was never truly elite, reaching 5.0 fWAR in a season just five times in twenty years, but he was a consistently above average player for a very long time and put up 13 straight seasons with at least 3.4 fWAR from 1997-2009. He also had an extensive postseason career with a .308/.374/.465 line, 20 home runs, and 18 stolen bases (121 wRC+) in 158 games, about in line with his career averages, and he won five World Series as part of some stacked Yankees teams that also included Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera and Mike Mussina. Media coverage aside, while his on-field play looked pretty borderline Hall of Fame level for much of his career, the end result was well over 3000 hits, 500 doubles, 250 home runs, 350 stolen bases, 1000 walks, and 73.0 total fWAR over 20 years. The longevity and consistency he displayed earned him his spot in the Hall.
5. Andruw Jones (1996-2012)
Career: 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.0 fWAR in 2196 games
Best season (2000): 36 HR, .303/.366/.541, 21 SB, 127 wRC+, 7.7 fWAR in 161 games
Jones doesn't get nearly the attention he deserves on this ballot, especially with the way voters talk about a similar player, Omar Vizquel. While Vizquel was an all-time glove with a mediocre bat, Jones was an all-time glove with an above average bat. While he wasn't a first tier or even a second tier hitter in his time, he was still a very valuable bat that was at least 12% better than league average eight times in nine years from 1998-2006. He also put up four straight 20-20 seasons, totaled seven 30+ home run seasons, and topped out with a 134 wRC+ in 2005. Of course, those offensive stats only qualify him for the Hall of Very Good, but when your glove is as absolutely elite as his is, I'd call him a Hall of Famer. Fangraphs only began tracking UZR in 2002, which cuts out five full seasons of his career, but his 126.4 UZR still ranks second only to Ichiro since then and his 17.4 UZR per 150 games is first by a long shot over second place Mookie Betts (14.3) and by an even longer shot over third place Jason Heyward (11.9). It's hard to prove, but there's a case to be made that Jones is up there with Willie Mays as one of the top couple of defensive outfielders ever to play the game, and unlike Omar Vizquel, he can actually hit.
6. Scott Rolen (1996-2012)
Career: 316 HR, .281/.364/.490, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 69.9 fWAR in 2038 games
Best season (2004): 34 HR, .314/.409/.598, 159 wRC+, 9.0 fWAR in 142 games
I'm a small-Hall guy, and Rolen is pretty borderline for me. On this shallow ballot though, I'll include him in my sixth and final slot that I'm using. Rolen wasn't necessarily elite on either side of the ball – he was a very good hitter and a very good defender. Does that equal Hall of Fame? It's really close, especially since his career barely cracked 2000 games. I'll go with yes for now, as he still finished with over 500 doubles, 300 home runs, 100 stolen bases, a high on-base percentage, and great defense. From 1997-2004, an eight year period where he slashed ..287/.379/.524 with 222 home runs and 91 stolen bases, he was third in all of baseball with 48.0 fWAR, trailing only Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez and topping guys like Chipper Jones, Jeff Bagwell, Derek Jeter, and Manny Ramirez in their primes. He didn't have the longevity of some of his counterparts, but the more you look at his case, the harder it is to say that Rolen is not a Hall of Famer.
Close Calls
- Bobby Abreu (1996-2014)
Career: 288 HR, .291/.395/.475, 400 SB, 129 wRC+, 59.8 fWAR in 2425 games
Best season (2004): 30 HR, .301/.428/.544, 40 SB, 148 wRC+, 5.7 fWAR in 159 games
Abreu, like Rolen, is so close, but he falls just a bit short for me. He was a great player with a power/speed/on-base combination that few could match and he rarely got hurt, but the whole package is just a bit light for the Hall of Fame. He wasn't an elite power hitter, hitting more than 25 home runs in a season just twice, he wasn't an elite base stealer, cracking 35 stolen bases just twice, and he was just an okay defender in right field. Now on the other hand, he was a great on-base player who finished near .400 for his career. He was never elite, but he had an on-base percentage above .400 eight times in nine years from 1998-2006 and only narrowly missed it with a .393 mark in 2001, he had seven straight 20-20 seasons from 1999-2005 (and two more in 2008 and 2010), and he was a two time 30-30 player. He's a shoo-in for the Hall of Very Good, but unfortunately, he just misses the Hall of Fame for me.
- Todd Helton (1997-2013)
Career: 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 54.9 fWAR in 2247 games
Best season (2000): 42 HR, .372/.463/.698, 5 SB, 162 wRC+, 8.3 fWAR in 160 games
Helton is another close one because he's probably the greatest player in Rockies history (while Larry Walker beat him in production, Helton made up for it in longevity with the team). And through 2005, even though he was a first baseman playing in Coors Field, he hit plenty enough to be on a Hall of Fame track with a .337/.433/.607 line, 271 home runs, and 44.3 fWAR in 1279 games. However, because all of his talent was tied to his bat and because his 148 wRC+ was 14th in baseball from 1998-2005, he probably had to keep hitting after his 32nd birthday in 2005 in order to get himself over the hump. However, from 2006 to the end of his career in 2013, he slashed .289/.388/.448 with 98 home runs and 10.6 fWAR over those final 968 games. Those aren't awful numbers for the end of a career, but for a first baseman who wasn't elite with the glove (though he was solid there for much of his career), I'd like to see a bit longer of a prime than eight years, or at least not see him taper off so quickly.
- Omar Vizquel (1989-2012)
Career: 80 HR, .272/.336/.352, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.5 fWAR in 2968 games
Best season (1999): 5 HR, .333/.397/.436, 42 SB, 115 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR in 144 games
To me, Andruw Jones is a Hall of Famer, but Omar Vizquel is not. Both were elite, perhaps all-time defenders, but Jones could hit (111 wRC+) and Vizquel could not (83 wRC+). His glove was truly elite, and he's up there with Ozzie Smith as one of the greatest defensive shortstops of all time. And while Smith wasn't a great hitter either (90 wRC+), he played at a time where the game was a bit more pitcher-friendly and teams weren't scoring five to six runs a game. Vizquel's complete lack of power and average on-base skills were a black hole in the Mariners, Indians, and Giants lineups he was a part of when every team was launching the ball out of the park. Even in his best offensive season, 1999, he still failed to reach a .400 on-base percentage. I completely respect Vizquel's glove and I searched his offensive stats looking for something I could consider "good enough" to put him in the Hall, but stealing 30 bases a year isn't enough.
- Andy Pettitte (1995-2013)
Career: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB in 3316 IP
Best season (2005): 17-9, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 171/41 K/BB in 222.1 IP
Pettitte is certainly in the 90's/00's Hall of Very Good rotation, as he was as reliable a mid-rotation starter as they came for the Yankees and Astros who also popped for a couple of ace-like seasons in 1997 (18-7, 2.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) and 2005 (17-9, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP). He threw over 3000 innings while keeping his ERA under 4.00 despite pitching through the steroid era, threw at least 175 innings in 15 separate seasons, and had plenty of postseason success (19-11, 3.81 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 183/76 K/BB in 276.2 IP). However, in an era that also included Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, Roy Halladay, and Johan Santana, it's hard to justify Pettitte as a Hall of Famer despite being a mid-rotation talent for most of his career.
Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens: See top of article.
Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa, Manny Ramirez: These players all have varying levels of allegations of steroid use, and while a lot of it is speculation, they all have fairly borderline cases even without considering the steroid usage. I'm both extremely anti-cheater and anti-speculation at the same time, but with their cases already being borderline, the steroid usage knocks them off my ballot.
Your analysis is great. Smart, filled with insights, and to the point. Thanks.
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