The Yankees' system isn't quite what it was just a few years ago, but they still have one of the better collections of arms in the minors. Per MLB.com, ten of their top twelve prospects and 17 of their top 23 are pitchers, with the Yankees doing especially well on the international market. Interestingly, every one of those pitchers is right handed. However, their core of hitters is very thin, especially behind top prospect Estevan Florial. This discrepancy between hitting and pitching depth probably makes the Yankees' system the most lopsided in baseball.
Affiliates: AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre RailRiders, AA Trenton Thunder, High A Tampa Tarpons, Class A Charleston RiverDogs, Short Season Staten Island Yankees, rookie level Pulaski Yankees, complex level GCL and DSL Yankees
Advanced Arms: RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP Chance Adams, RHP Domingo Acevedo, RHP Michael King, and RHP Trevor Stephan
There are so many interesting pitchers in the Yankees system, so I'm just going to move through the system from top to bottom. The advanced pitchers, all right handed, show a good mix of skills; some are starters, some relievers, some get by on command, and some just overpower their opponents. 24 year old Jonathan Loaisiga, whose name I am finally learning to spell, is the most recognizable name for numerous reasons. The 5'11" Nicaraguan isn't the biggest guy but comes in with a mid 90's fastball and an equally dangerous curveball/changeup combination, all of which he commands very well. He bounced around quite a bit in 2018, overall posting a 2.89 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a wicked 67/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings between one rehab start in complex ball and time split between High A Tampa and AA Trenton. He also made it into nine major league games, posting a respectable 5.11 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 33/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.2 innings. With his command of three good pitches, he is ready to take over as a major league starter full time if the Yankees decide to use him to replace Sonny Gray, with the ultimate projection of being a mid-rotation starter. 24 year old Chance Adams, for the first time in his career, did not dominate the minors in 2018. At AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre this year, he posted a 4.78 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 113/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 innings, also tossing 7.2 major league innings with a 7.04 ERA and four strikeouts and walks apiece. His stuff and control are both a bit closer to average than Loaisiga, so he has a chance to be a fifth starter but more likely ends up one of those long relievers that the Yankees (smartly) love to use. 24 year old Domingo Acevedo has been a highly regarded prospect since forever, missing a lot of time to injuries along the way. In 2018, he posted a 2.99 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 55/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings between short season ball and Trenton, battling blister problems along the way. The huge 6'7" Dominican sits in the mid 90's with good command and decent secondaries, but he naturally struggles with consistency because he can't stay healthy. A healthy Acevedo can be a useful mid-rotation starter, but he probably ends up a hard throwing reliever if that doesn't materialize; he can run it up to 103 in short stints. 23 year old Michael King, statistically, had the best season in the minors, at least statistically, this year by going 11-5 with a 1.79 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 152/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 161.1 innings between Tampa, Trenton, and Scranton-Wilkes Barre. That success came from his advanced pitchability which should make him a serviceable #4 or #5 starter, even though his stuff is just average. A New Englander out of Boston College, his instincts on the mound give him a shot to crack the Yankee rotation in 2019, if not with the highest ceiling. 23 year old Trevor Stephan was just drafted out of Arkansas in the third round (92nd overall) in 2017, posting a 3.69 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 140/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings between Tampa and Trenton. He was better at Tampa, the lower level, but held his own in Trenton with a similar skill set to King. He's a bit bigger than King and throws a better slider, but his command and pitchability aren't quite as advanced.
Mid Level Arms: RHP Deivi Garcia, RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Garrett Whitlock, RHP Nick Nelson, and RHP Clarke Schmidt
The middle of the system naturally features more upside and more risk, again with no notable left handed pitchers. 19 year old Deivi Garcia came into the season as an exciting prospect to watch, but 14 starts later, he might just be the best pitching prospect in the system. The 5'10" righty had a fantastic breakout season, posting a 2.55 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 105/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 innings between Class A Charleston, High A Tampa, and AA Trenton, getting better and better with each promotion. His most notable start came on August 6th with Tampa, when he struck out 12 of the 21 hitters he faced over seven perfect innings against Clearwater (Phillies). He throws in the low 90's with room for more velocity, spins a great curveball, and has advanced command for his age and stuff. Really, the only question with Garcia is durability, as he is skinny at just 5'10" and 165 pounds, and his 74 innings in 2018 actually marked a career high. He turns just 20 in May, and while he could be major league ready at some point next season, the Yankees will likely continue to handle him cautiously to help him build up strength. When it's said and done, he has ace potential and a higher floor than most prospects his age. 23 year old Albert Abreu, like Domingo Acevedo, has struggled with injuries but shows great upside. Fighting numerous nagging injuries in 2018, he posted a 5.20 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 74/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 72.2 innings across four levels, though most of his season was spent at Tampa. The 6'2" righty has exceptional arm strength, throwing his fastball in the mid 90's while also tossing very good secondary stuff. He doesn't command it consistently, but that may be a product of his inability to stay healthy and get consistent reps in. The Yankees have developed him as a starter and hope he can remain one, as he is talented enough to do so, but they may be forced to move him to the bullpen where he could run his fastball up to 100. 22 year old Garrett Whitlock and 23 year old Nick Nelson were mainstays in the Tampa rotation this year, along with Abreu, both showing mid-rotation potential at the major league level. Whitlock posted a 1.86 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 122/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.2 innings between Charleston, Tampa, and Trenton, while Nelson posted a 3.55 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 144/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.2 innings at the same three levels. Like Abreu, both spent most of the season at Tampa. Both have similar stuff from the right side, though Whitlock is just a little bit more advanced with both his stuff and command, making him the better bet to develop into something useful for New York. 22 year old Clarke Schmidt was a first round pick (16th overall) out of South Carolina in 2017 despite having recently undergone Tommy John surgery, so he didn't get his pro career started until 2018. The Yankees were very cautious with the 6'1" righty, limiting him to eight appearances where he had a 3.09 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 30/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings of rehab work in complex and short season ball. There is no question about his stuff, with a low to mid 90's sinker and a great array of secondary pitches, all of which he can command moderately well. Once fully healthy in 2019, he should be a fast riser through the system and could be a mid-rotation starter shortly.
The Youngest Arms: RHP Roansy Contreras, RHP Luis Gil, RHP Luis Medina, RHP Matt Sauer, RHP Nolan Martinez, and RHP Juan Then
At this time last year, Deivi Garcia would have been classified in this group, and he broke out in a big way to become arguably the system's top pitching prospect. Meanwhile, the Yankees continue to be active in the international market and have another group of talented young pitchers coming up through the bottom of the system, and any of them could be 2019's Garcia. Many of these pitchers have high ceilings, but as with any teenage pitchers, the risk is very high, with potential injuries or failures to hone command being likely obstacles. 19 year old Roansy Contreras began to break out in 2018, posting a 2.42 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 60/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 63.1 innings between Short Season Staten Island and Class A Charleston. He's raw with a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, the same building blocks Garcia had last year, with the best place for improvement being his command and his changeup. He's a long way off, but further development in those two areas could make him a mid-rotation starter at the major league level or better. 20 year old Luis Gil pitched well as well, posting a 1.96 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 68/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 innings between rookie level Pulaski and Staten Island. He throws harder than Contreras but his command is very much a work in progress, as he struggles to locate his pitches and hurts himself with walks. He has a high ceiling but at 20 years old, it's time for him to show at least some feel for the strike zone. 19 year old Luis Medina spent the year at Pulaski and was hit around a little, posting a 6.25 ERA, a 2.17 WHIP, and a 47/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings. His stuff is as good as anybody's in the system, tossing and upper 90's fastball with a great curveball/changeup combination, but his command is behind even Gil's as he simply cannot throw strikes. He's constantly falling behind in the count and then gets hit when he leaves pitches over the plate, but if he could at least somewhat know where the ball is going, he could start missing bats at staggering rates. He could be anything from a future ace to an A ball flameout, so his 2019 will be important to track. 19 year old Matt Sauer spent the year at Staten Island and posted a 3.90 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 45/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings, showing more command and pitchability and less stuff than the two Luis's ahead of him. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball with a good curveball and plenty of arm strength, looking like a classic mid-rotation prospect with his fair share of work to do given that he's still a teenager. 20 year old Nolan Martinez has been slow to get his career moving, just making it to full season ball this year after being drafted in the third round (98th overall) out of high school in California in 2016. This year, he posted a 3.36 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 41/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings between Staten Island and Charleston, looking a lot better in Staten Island than Charleston. He's a projectable arm with a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, but he's still raw despite a few years of experience. The Yankees will continue to run him out as a starter but the bullpen may be in his future. Lastly, I really like 18 year old Juan Then. The skinny 6'1" righty posted a 2.70 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 42/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings in complex ball, showing great strike-throwing ability for his age to go along with pretty good stuff. He's going to add more velocity to his low 90's fastball and he already has good feel for a changeup, with his command and pitchability proving to be beyond his years. Definitely watch Then in 2019.
The Hitters: OF Estevan Florial, SS Thairo Estrada, C Anthony Seigler, C Josh Breaux, OF Ryder Green, and OF Everson Pereira
The Yankees really don't have much position player depth, with only one true impact prospect and only a couple that I could really see evolving into impact prospects. The big name right now is 21 year old Estevan Florial, a toolsy outfielder with a high ceiling. He spent 2018 split between High A Tampa and complex ball rehab, slashing .283/.377/.422 overall but just .255/.354/.361 with three home runs, eleven stolen bases, and an 87/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games at Tampa when you take out his complex ball work. He has both power and speed, and his plate discipline took a step forward this year, but he hasn't been able to put everything together quite yet and is still producing pedestrian numbers. The Yankees hope a healthy 2019 will be the year where he puts it all together and potentially ends up in the Bronx, where he could be an impact player. For now though, we're still playing wait and see as to whether he can get to his power enough to make an impact. 22 year old Thairo Estrada missed most of 2018 with a back injury, slashing .192/.210/.231 with 17 strikeouts to zero walks in the 18 games he did get into between Tampa and AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. He lacks power but gets on base consistently when healthy, and with his solid glove at shortstop, he has a high floor as a utility infielder in New York. If he can continue to get on base consistently at the major league level and the Yankees can find a spot for him, he could start, and on a less competitive team he could be looking at competing for a starting spot out of spring training. However, he's a Yankee for now, so utility infielder is his future for now. 19 year old Anthony Seigler was the Yankees' first round pick (23rd overall) out of a Georgia high school this year, then slashed .266/.379/.342 with a home run and a 12/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games between complex ball and rookie level Pulaski in his debut, looking better at the lower level. He's a competent defender who should stick as a catcher, and while his bat looks like hit over power at this point, there's more for him to tap into. I wasn't a huge fan of the pick when the Yankees made it, having ranked him 44th on my draft rankings, but if the Yankees can develop his bat while maintaining his defense, they could have a starting catcher on their hands. 21 year old Josh Breaux was the second round pick (61st overall) right after Seigler, coming from a Texas JuCo. He's also a catcher, and while there is significant risk that he ends up at first base rather than behind the plate, he has more power than Seigler but has more swing and miss, fitting the description of a high ceiling/low floor prospect. The power is real but I'm definitely concerned about his ability to get to it consistently, especially if he has to move off of catcher and his bat has to carry him. After taking Breaux, the Yankees took 18 year old Ryder Green out of a Knoxville high school in the third round (97th overall), and he slashed .203/.316/.392 with three home runs and a 35/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games in complex ball. A power hitting outfielder, I actually ranked him four spots ahead of Breaux in my draft rankings (83 vs 87). He has power but I'm worried that his swing isn't geared towards making contact in pro ball, so he'll have to alter it just a little to get his barrel in the zone for longer. If he can successfully make those mechanical changes, he could end up a solid power hitter. Lastly, 17 year old Everson Pereira is an extremely advanced player for his age, having slashed .263/.322/.389 with three home runs and a 60/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games at Pulaski. He plays a great center field and makes ready contact against older competition, and once he starts to develop some power and draw some walks, he should move through the minors relatively quickly for a player signed so young.
No comments:
Post a Comment