Consecutive runs to the 2014 and 2015 World Series, including the big win the second time around, left the farm system completely barren, which is absolutely a tradeoff worth making. In fact, they have actually gotten the farm system back into respectable shape surprisingly quickly, and while at this point I would hesitate to call it anything better than that, "respectable," they deserve credit. The groups of pitchers and hitters are pretty different, with most hitters looking like the toolsy high ceiling/low floor types and most of the pitchers looking like safe bet, low ceiling types. After missing badly on four straight top ten picks in Christian Colon (4th overall, 2010), Bubba Starling (5th overall, 2011), Kyle Zimmer (5th overall, 2012), and Hunter Dozier (8th overall, 2013), in addition to Ashe Russell (21st overall in 2015), the Royals have righted the ship over the last two seasons with eight of their top ten prospects (per MLB.com) having been drafted in the top four rounds of the last two drafts.
Affiliates: AAA Omaha Storm Chasers, AA Northwest Arkansas Naturals, High A Wilmington Blue Rocks, Class A Lexington Legends, Rookie level Idaho Falls Chukars, Rookie level Burlington Royals, complex level AZL/DSL Royals
Pitchers from the 2018 Draft: RHP Brady Singer, RHP Jackson Kowar, LHP Daniel Lynch, LHP Kris Bubic, RHP Jonathan Bowlan, and LHP Austin Cox
The Royals farm system took a step forward when they added a few impact bats in the 2017 draft, but the farm system really took a huge step forward with the 2018 draft as they loaded up on college arms and all have either held their stock or moved forwards. We'll start with 22 year old first round pick (18th overall) Brady Singer, a 6'5" right hander who is the prototypical high upside college pitching prospect. He had a chance to go first overall but slid during a moderately inconsistent junior season at Florida, though he still finished with a 2.55 ERA and a 114/22 strikeout to walk ratio, mostly against tough SEC lineups. He throws a running low to mid 90's fastball with a great slider, and while his command isn't pinpoint, it's pretty good and will allow him time to develop his changeup, which is coming along rapidly. Though his mechanics can get out of sync at times, he has a loose arm and is said to be a hard worker and an even tougher competitor, both of which bode well for his development into a potential #1 or #2 starter. He did not pitch in pro baseball this year, but should move quickly upon making his minor league debut in 2019. Right behind Singer in the draft was fellow Florida Gator and 22 year old Jackson Kowar, who the Royals took in the compensation round with the 33rd overall pick. They dropped him straight into Class A Lexington, where he dominated with a 2.48 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 32/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.1 innings, including the postseason. Like Singer, he's a 6'5" righty with a moving low to mid 90's fastball, but instead of having Singer's sharp slider, his go-to secondary pitch is his dropping changeup. His curveball is behind the other two pitches and will need to add power, and his command is a hair behind Singer's, but he looks like a good bet to move quickly and end up a #3 starter. With the very next pick, the Royals took UVA 22 year old Daniel Lynch 34th overall, and he's off to the best start of any of their draftees. The 6'6" lefty dominated in his pro debut, posting a 1.37 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 68/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings (playoffs included) between rookie level Burlington and Class A Lexington. He has no one standout pitch but mixes his deep arsenal well, and he really took off when he ignored the advice of the UVA pitching program and started throwing his fastball more, now sitting in the low to mid 90's with more velocity possible. I like Lynch as a prospect a lot and while he was the least well known of the first four arms the Royals took this year, he at least has a chance at being the best. Six picks later, with their competitive balance selection, the Royals took now-21 year old Kris Bubic 40th overall out of Stanford, and he got off to a moderately hot start at rookie level Idaho Falls. In 38 innings, he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 53/19 strikeout to walk ratio, not throwing as many strikes as hoped but also racking up more strikeouts than expected. He's a 6'3" lefty known mostly for his excellent changeup, but with marginal low 90's velocity and only a decent curveball, he will have to rely on staying consistent with that command. I liked him less than some other sources before the draft, and it's the one pick the Royals made that I'm not too high on. He has the chance to be a #3 or #4 starter but more likely ends up in the bullpen, in my opinion. 22 year old Jonathan Bowlan, the Royals' second round pick (58th overall) out of Memphis, joined Bubic at Idaho Falls and posted a 6.94 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP, and a 23/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 innings. While he was hit hard, it was nice to see the huge 6'6" right hander throwing strikes with his low to mid 90's fastball and good slider, and the poor numbers may have just been a result of Royals pitching coaches easing him into pro ball by just having him throw strikes. He also has reliever risk but the Royals will try to refine his secondary pitches enough to keep him in the rotation. Lastly, 21 year old Austin Cox was their fifth round pick out of Mercer, had a nice start at Burlington by posting a 3.78 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 51/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.1 innings. The 6'4" lefty is still fairly inconsistent with his stuff, but at his best he misses a ton of bats with a low 90's fastball and a hard curveball to go along with a slider and a changeup. The big thing for the Royals will be tightening that stuff and helping him use it more effectively.
Other Pitchers: RHP Josh Staumont, LHP Richard Lovelady, RHP Trevor Oaks, LHP Daniel Tillo, RHP Carlos Hernandez, and RHP Yefri Del Rosario
Most of the top pitching prospects in this system, especially with 18 year old Elvis Luciano being plucked out in the recent Rule 5 Draft, came from that 2018 draft but there are still a few interesting arms that were here beforehand. We'll start with 24 year old Josh Staumont, a flamethrowing 6'3" righty that posted a 3.51 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, and a 103/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.1 innings at AAA Omaha this year. He can hit 102 with that fastball and add movement with his two seamer in the upper 90's, and his curveball has stepped forward to the point where it is a swing and miss pitch in its own right. However, he can't throw strikes to save his life, and major leaguers can lay off 102 if it's not in the zone or hit it if they're ahead in the count and sitting on it. If he wants to stick as a major league reliever, throwing strikes will be important, but he has high upside if he does. 23 year old Richard Lovelady is a more conventional reliever, coming in with good control of a mid 90's fastball and a good slider. At Omaha in 2018, he posted a 2.47 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 71/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 innings, often going multiple innings at a time. He is a safer bet than Staumont with a lower ceiling, and he's a lefty too. 25 year old Trevor Oaks came over from the Dodgers in a three-way trade last winter, then posted a solid 2018 at Omaha with a 3.23 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 70/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 128.1 innings. He throws in the low to mid 90's but his secondary stuff is just average, leading to low strikeout rates, though he's fairly good at throwing strikes and keeping the ball on the ground. He has a #5 starter projection with the chance to make the Opening Day roster in 2019. 22 year old Daniel Tillo is lower down in the system, having been drafted in the third round (90th overall) in 2017, The 6'5" lefty was just decent in 2018, posting a 4.76 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 100/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 134.1 innings between Class A Lexington and High A Wilmington. His fastball/slider combination has worked so far for him as a starter in A ball, but with just an average changeup and command, he probably ends up in the bullpen where he could have a similar profile to Lovelady, with the added caveat that he is five inches taller. 21 year old Carlos Hernandez and 19 year old Yefri Del Rosario did everything asked of them in their full season debuts in 2018, both holding down rotation spots with consistency for much of the season. Hernandez posted a 3.29 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 82/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.1 innings, while Del Rosario, a former Braves prospect who was forcibly released due to sleazy contract details on the Braves' end, posted a 3.19 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 72/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 innings. Both are tall righties that throw reasonably hard, with Hernandez showing the better changeup and Del Rosario having the better slider. Of course, Del Rosario is two years younger, though Hernandez signed late and is progressing quicker than expected.
Lexington Hitters: 1B Nick Pratto, C M.J. Melendez, OF Seuly Matias, OF Brewer Hicklen, OF Michael Gigliotti, OF Kyle Isbel, and SS Jeison Guzman
For a farm system that didn't have a ton of impact talent prior to the 2018 draft, a lot of exciting hitters passed through Class A Lexington this year, many of whom came from a hitting-oriented 2017 draft. The best prospect in that group is 20 year old Nick Pratto, a first baseman who slashed .280/.343/.443 with 14 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 150/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games with Lexington. Having played the whole season at just 19 years old, he showed an advanced approach and good power, even if his strikeout rate was a bit high. He also surprisingly stole 22 bases in 27 tries, even with mediocre speed, as he has good instincts for the game all around. While the overall numbers weren't all that exciting for a first baseman, the 2017 first rounder (14th overall) has skills that will translate upwards and he should have no problem handling High A in 2019. 20 year old M.J. Melendez was right there with Pratto in that Lexington lineup all season long, slashing .251/.322/.492 with 19 home runs and a 143/43 strikeout to walk ratio in 111 games. While he has just as much power as Pratto, the 2017 second rounder (52nd overall) isn't as advanced at the plate. That is okay, because he is a good defensive catcher that should be able to stick back there, meaning as long as he keeps hitting for power and getting on base at a reasonable rate, his glove will get him to the majors as at least a back-up catcher. If he can improve his plate discipline, he could be a starting MLB catcher down the road. 20 year old Seuly Matias was yet another exciting hitter in the Lexington lineup, slashing .231/.303/.550 with 31 home runs and a 131/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 games. His bat is even less developed than that of Melendez, but he has the best raw power in the system. He really needs to improve that plate discipline, as higher level pitching will eat him up, but if he can cut down on that strikeout rate he has the highest ceiling among this trio of hitters, at least with his bat. 22 year old Brewer Hicklen, a seventh rounder from that same 2017 draft that produced Pratto and Melendez, struggled at High A Wilmington (.211/.263/.310) before being demoted to Lexington, where he was much better (.307/.378/.552). Overall, he slashed .289/.357/.507 with 18 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 124/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games, showing both power and speed, but the plate discipline needs a lot of work for someone who was drafted out of college and is older compared to the Class A competition (Pratto and Melendez were drafted out of high school). Because his production came against younger competition, Hicklen is most likely a fourth outfielder at the major league level, but his power and speed could help him contend for a starting spot down the road. Yet another name from that 2017 draft class is 22 year old Michael Gigliotti, a fourth rounder who only made it into six games (and slashed .235/.435/.471) due to an ACL tear. After a down junior season at Lipscomb University in Nashville, he has shown surprisingly advanced plate discipline in the minors, drawing a ton of walks while still spraying line drives all over the field and running the bases well. Once healthy in 2019, he could move quickly and he has a better chance at starting than Hicklen. 21 year old Kyle Isbel was a 2018 third rounder (94th overall), the Royals' first non-college pitcher pick after taking five before him, got to Lexington quickly. Over 64 games between rookie level Idaho Falls and Lexington, he slashed .326/.389/.504 with seven home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 60/26 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a power hitting corner outfielder who I think could be an impact bat in Kansas City relatively soon, though he'll have to watch his strikeouts. Lastly, 20 year old Jeison Guzman split the season between rookie level Burlington and Lexington, slashing .254/.327/.356 with four home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 74/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games. His bat is a bit light but he's a good fielding shortstop, which buys the bat time, and he does have a fairly advanced approach for his age. He looks like a utility infielder for now.
Higher Level Hitters: OF Khalil Lee, SS Nicky Lopez, 3B Kelvin Gutierrez, 3B Emmanuel Rivera, and OF Blake Perkins
Most of the system's most hitting exciting talent was in Lexington this year, with the majority of the non-Lexington group looking mostly like future role players. The exception is 20 year old Khalil Lee, an outfielder who was drafted in the third round (103rd overall) out of a northern Virginia high school in 2016. In 100 games between High A Wilmington and AA Northwest Arkansas, Lee slashed .263/.382/.390 with six home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 103/59 strikeout to walk ratio, showing advanced plate discipline for his age and the levels he was playing at. Skinny and just 5'10", his power is sporadic but there is definitely some thunder in the bat when he gets into one. He's fast, too, and his broad set of tools gives him the highest high ceiling among position players in the system if he can tap into that power a bit more, considering he has improved his plate discipline as he has been promoted. He doesn't turn 21 until June, giving him plenty of time to continue to develop. 23 year old Nicky Lopez is a smooth fielding shortstop who broke out with the bat in 2018, slashing .308/.382/.417 with nine home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 52/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games between Northwest Arkansas and AAA Omaha. His exceptional control of the strike zone means he will have no trouble hitting at the major league level, with the question being just how much. Right now, he looks like more of a utility infielder than a future regular, but with the Royals' infield situation in a bit of a transition, he has a chance to break through and start. There's not much power, so if he does start at points in 2019 and 2020, I think his long term role is indeed as a utility infielder. 24 year old Kelvin Gutierrez and 22 year old Emmanuel Rivera come with similar profiles, both being third basemen in similar stages of development. Gutierrez, who came over from Washington in the Kelvin Herrera trade, slashed .275/.329/.400 with 11 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 108/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at AA, while Rivera slashed .274/.326/.416 with six home runs and a 65/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 106 games, mostly at High A Wilmington. Both are average hitters across the board, though Rivera has a better feel for the strike zone for his age. Meanwhile, both are great defenders at third base, with Gutierrez generally being considered the better of the two there, and the Royals will hope one of them takes a step forward with the bat so they can compete for a third base job. Lastly, 22 year old Blake Perkins came over with Gutierrez in the Herrera trade, showing well in some areas and lacking in others. At High A in 2018, he slashed .237/.362/.305 with three home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 134/92 strikeout to walk ratio, showing exceptional patience at the plate to go along with great speed but completely lacking in power. There is hope that he can add some power and hit upwards of ten home runs per season in the majors, but he isn't there yet and the clock is ticking. With no additional power development, he's a fifth outfielder that can draw a walk, steal a base, and hold down center field if asked.
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