First 5 rounds: Brendan McKay (1-4), Drew Rasmussen (CBA-31), Michael Mercado (2-40), Taylor Walls (3-79), Drew Strotman (4-109), Josh Fleming (5-139).
Also notable: Zach Rutherford (6-169), Phoenix Sanders (10-269), Gavin Williams (30-889), Chris Williams (31-919), J.J. Schwarz (38-1129).
The Rays are a small-market team, so they know that nailing the draft is crucial to success. Luckily for Tampa Bay, they did a pretty good job this year. The Rays are one of the better teams in baseball when it comes to developing pitching, but they have struggled to develop raw hitting talent. They know this, so they took 9.5 pitchers with their first twelve picks (we'll get to McKay) and didn't pop a high school hitter until the 37th round. I like what they got, though, drafting to their strength in development so they can trade for/sign what they need later.
1-4: 1B/LHP Brendan McKay (my rank: 3)
Brendan McKay was the most interesting player in this draft, so this will be a long paragraph. A favorite to go #1 overall throughout the spring, he fell to the Rays at #4, who snatched him up with glee. The hitter vs pitcher debate has raged since he was a prep star at Beaver Falls High School in western Pennsylvania, and we still don't have clarity on it today. The Rays officially drafted him as a first baseman after he slashed .328/.432/.533 with 27 home runs over three seasons Louisville, one of the best teams in the country, but McKay will actually play both ways, at least in the short run. In addition to his monster career at the plate for the Cardinals, McKay has also gone 31-10 with a 2.15 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 53 games (46 starts). The Rays will likely make him a hitter, where he has both a high floor and a good ceiling as an All Star first baseman. On the mound, he is as safe a bet as any to start in the majors, and he realistically projects as a mid-rotation starter with a low 90's fastball and one of the best curveballs in the class, all of which he commands well. I said earlier that the Rays struggle to develop hitting to its full potential; that is OK with McKay, because he's so advanced at the plate (and the on the mound) that he won't need much developing anyways. For now, it will be exciting to see a two-way star in the minor leagues.
CBA-31: RHP Drew Rasmussen (my rank: 86)
It's tough to get a read on Rasmussen because last year's Tommy John surgery limited him to just twelve appearances in the past two seasons, but he has performed well in those games, going 7-1 with a 2.45 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP while striking out 64 to just 15 walks for Oregon State. The 6'1" righty throws in the low to mid 90's with a decent slider/changeup combination, and he could be a big league starter if he can stay healthy. However, he's more likely to end up in the bullpen, especially given Tampa Bay's starting pitching depth in their system, where his fastball can touch the upper 90's and he can focus on one offspeed pitch. He did throw a perfect game against Washington State as a freshman in 2015.
2-40: RHP Michael Mercado (my rank: 50)
I really like this pick, especially for the Rays. Mercado is an advanced high school righty with a low 90's fastball that he can command well, and while his curveball, cutter, and two-seamer are closer to above average than plus, he has a feel for all of them, giving him a relatively high floor for a high school pitcher. Skinny and projectable, he has a higher ceiling than most pitchability right handers, and the Rays have gotten the most out of pitching prospects like this in the past (Jacob Faria, Chih-Wei Hu).
3-79: SS Taylor Walls (my rank: 115)
I don't love this pick as much as the Mercado pick, but Walls is exactly the type of hitter the Rays like: advanced at the plate, athletic in the field. After a huge sophomore season for Florida State (.355/.479/.516, 6 HR), he saw his stock fall when he struggled in 2017 (.276/.421/.428, 8 HR), though he did get hot down the stretch, which I failed to account for in my rankings. Walls has an innate ability to get on base, drawing 174 walks over three years at FSU to give himself a career OBP of .426. Though he hit 14 home runs during his career for the Seminoles, I doubt he ever hits for even average power, with a swing that is geared towards line drives and one that swings and misses more when he tries to hit for power. I saw him play when FSU came to Virginia Tech in March, and I came away thinking of him as a future Greg Garcia-like utility guy.
6-169: SS Zach Rutherford (my rank: 113)
Rutherford is a similar player to Walls as a college shortstop, but he is scrappier, has less power, and less of a keen eye than Walls. He slashed .332/.397/.472 with a pair of home runs for Old Dominion University this year, but what makes him stand out is his hard-nosed, competitive attitude. He doesn't have the pretties mechanics, but he will compete with Walls going up the ladder to see which can crack the Rays' bench, or starting lineup, first.
38-1129: C/1B J.J. Schwarz (my rank: 144)
Schwarz is a bit of an enigma. His monster freshman season in 2015 (.332/.398/.629, 18 HR) in the SEC put him on the map as a potential first overall pick in 2017, but he has struggled to live up to expectations over the past two seasons for Florida (.281/.383/.463, 19 HR). His stock really fell when he looked completely lost out of the gate this year, and only a late-season surge was able to save his draft stock from disappearing completely. He has a clean swing, but SEC pitchers have been able to expose holes in his pitch recognition fairly easily, and because Mike Rivera spent the season as the Gators' starting catcher, scouts didn't get many looks at Schwarz behind the plate. It's unlikely that he sticks back there, but he does have a chance to be a catcher. However, because he was drafted in the 38th round, I think it's highly likely that he returns to school and tries to improve his stock.
Others: 4th rounder Drew Strotman is a power pitcher out of St. Mary's College of California, where he has never really been a big performer, but his stuff will play well in the bullpen. Once he converts to relieving full time, his fastball could sit in the mid 90's while his slider could reach the upper 80's. 5th rounder Josh Fleming is the first player ever drafted out of Webster University in Missouri, where he was arguably Division III's best pitcher with a 90 MPH fastball that he commanded extremely well. He's a project because his secondaries need lots of work, but the Rays know what they're doing when it comes to young pitching. 10th rounder Phoenix Sanders was the ace of the South Florida pitching staff this year, going 6-2 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP for the Bulls, striking out 109 in 97 innings. Though undersized at 5'10", his proven track record in the American Athletic Conference is a good get in the tenth round. 30th rounder Gavin Williams cracked my rankings at #119, but he's unlikely to sign this low in the draft. Williams, a high schooler from North Carolina, stands 6'6" and can already run his fastball into the mid 90's, and his curveball could be a plus pitch if developed right. Currently, it's a softer pitch, and his mechanics need an overhaul, but he's a high ceiling guy who will likely end up at East Carolina University. In the 31st round, Tampa Bay picked up Clemson catcher Chris Williams, who shows big time power (14 HR this year) but has trouble getting on base consistently (.320 OBP), and he may have trouble catching up to pro pitching. It looks like he'll return to Clemson for his senior year.
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