First Tier: Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore, Shane Baz
Second Tier: DL Hall, Sam Carlson, Trevor Rogers, Blayne Enlow, Matt Sauer, Hans Crouse
Third Tier: Alex Scherff, Joe Perez, Jake Eder, Landon Leach, James Marinan, Caden Lemons, Bryce Bonnin
Others: C.J. Van Eyk, Gavin Williams, Jackson Rutledge, Nick Storz, Daniel Ritcheson, Cade Cavalli
Sticking with the high ceiling theme, let's look at the one thing more risky than a toolsy high school hitter: a raw high school pitcher. Now, not all of these guys are raw, especially in the first and second tiers, but some of those guys in the "others" section basically just throw fastballs at this point. This list encompasses most high school pitchers, but I'm focusing on ceiling here so I left out the Hagen Danners and Tanner Burns's to focus on those who could legitimately be top of the rotation forces. Of course, most of these guys won't ever be impact arms on an MLB staff, but then again, some may win Cy Young Awards.
Tier I (Greene, Gore, Baz)
We all agree that Hunter Greene is the top talent in this class. He has the best chance on this list to be an ace, coming in with easy upper 90's velocity and some secondaries that flash plus. No other high schoolers in this draft can match his velocity, and unlike the guys further down the list that come close, he has solid pitchability. MacKenzie Gore and Shane Baz aren't the same pitcher, but the deeper you look, the more similarities you find with them. Both began the season on the fringes of the first round conversation, but have positioned themselves to easily go in the top half of the first round. Scouts love both of their competitive spirits, and both are armed with low to mid 90's fastballs that they can bump up to 97. With full arsenals, they easily project as starters, though Gore commands his pitches better and has the advantage of being left handed. Gore also has a higher ceiling due to his more raw mechanics, and will likely go about five or so picks ahead of Baz, but you can't go wrong with either of these guys.
Tier II (Hall, Carlson, Rogers, Enlow, Sauer, Crouse)
Standing at 6'1", DL Hall is the second shortest guy on this list ahead of only the 6' Bryce Bonnin, but with his small frame, he fits into the "undersized lefty" demographic, which doesn't typically have a high ceiling. However, Hall can absolutely bring it, coming in in the low to mid 90's with arguably the best curveball in the class. As a long-established prospect, he's very different from the other high ceiling arm that sits right next to him on overall big board, Sam Carlson. A Minnesota product, Carlson surprised everybody by adding 5 MPH to his fastball this spring, now sitting in the mid 90's, with a power slider and a surprisingly good changeup for a cold weather high schooler. He commands it all from a 6'4" frame, giving him a higher floor than most prep arms. Trevor Rogers and Blayne Enlow share a lot of similarities despite different handedness. The 6'6" Rogers will likely go a little before the 6'4" Enlow because he is left handed, though both saw their draft stock dip a bit this spring with decreased velocity. Rogers throws a little harder, in the low 90's, while Enlow sits around 90, but Enlow's excellent curveball, which rivals that of Hall, is more advanced than Rogers' decent slider. Both are projection plays, as it's easy to envision both getting into the mid 90's when they fill out their projectable frames and clean up their mechanics, with Rogers having more work to do than Enlow. The 6'4" Matt Sauer and the 6'5" Hans Crouse both look like relievers at this point, with tall frames and high effort deliveries. Both throw very hard and project to be drafted in the same range, 25-35ish, so teams considering one are bound to be considering the other at the same time. Crouse's skinnier frame is a little bit more projectable, and he sits in the mid 90's a little bit more consistently than Sauer. That said, Sauer's slider is a little better than Crouse's curveball. If they both end up relievers, I think Crouse will be the better pitcher, but I am more optimistic about Sauer's ability to stick in a starting rotation. He has a thicker build and a very different pitching motion from Crouse. While Crouse generates his velocity by leaning back and then short-arming his delivery, Sauer does so by the sheer strength of his arm and by extending his long arms (it's important to note that Crouse has similar arm strength and long arms). I think Sauer's delivery is inefficient, and cleaning it up/getting him more on line to the plate can pay huge dividends. In contrast, I don't see much a team can do to tinker with Crouse's delivery without changing his entire profile as a pitcher, so he's probably best being left as he is with some minor adjustments. Because of all of this, I rank Sauer a few spots higher than Crouse, but it wouldn't be unjustifiable to take Crouse first.
Tier III (Scherff, Perez, Eder, Leach, Marinan, Lemons, Bonnin)
Alex Scherff is an interesting pitcher. He's a full year older than the typical high school senior, and he has transferred high schools three times, pitching at three different schools in his first three years of high school before transferring back to the original one for his senior year. It all adds up to a very weird profile before he even steps on the mound, but the stuff is premium. A shorter righty at 6'2", he can run his riding fastball into the mid 90's deep into starts, and his full arsenal is highlighted by an excellent changeup, possibly the best in this high school draft class. His slider and curveball need work, but the slider does have some late bite, and he could be a mid rotation starter if it all comes together. I'm going to skip around and compare Joe Perez to James Marinan, both of whom are projectable right handers who pitch in south Florida. They also both popped onto scouts radars this season, quite literally as Marinan found a mid 90's fastball and Perez touched the upper 90's. They both have a lot of work to do on their offspeeds, though Marinan's curveball is coming along well and he has a better chance of sticking in a starting rotation. Perez is more of a projection play because he only started pitching recently, and he is also the second youngest player in the entire list of potential top 100 picks, trailing only fellow south Floridan Mark Vientos by three days. Perez's ceiling easily fits in with Tier II, but the distance he has to get there keeps him in Tier III. Jake Eder and Caden Lemons can be compared to each other as tall, projectable picks with terrible mechanics. The 6'4" Eder and the 6'6" Lemons can both sit in the low 90's easily. Both will need complete overhauls of their mechanics, but being able to do what they do as it is is pretty incredible. Eder's mechanics are simply all over the place, while Lemons looks like he's just walking up to the mound and throwing the ball. 6'4" Canadian Landon Leach has similar stuff to Eder, though he is right handed and has a cleaner delivery. He's a safer bet, but also probably has a lower ceiling. Lastly, Bryce Bonnin has a devastating fastball/slider combo, sitting in the low to mid 90's depending on when you see him and throwing hitters off with that nasty slider. He may profile best as a reliever down the road due to his shorter stature (he's 6') and inconsistencies with being able to maintain his command. If he does end up in the bullpen, he has the kind of stuff that can play up there and be very valuable.
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