Major Additions: Ian Desmond, Mike Dunn, Greg Holland, Alexi Amarista
Major Losses: Nick Hundley, Daniel Descalso, Boone Logan, Jorge De La Rosa
Strengths: Offense
Weaknesses: Rotation Depth
Potential Breakout Stars: David Dahl, Raimel Tapia, Tony Wolters, German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela
*Keep in mind that stats from Rockies' players will be inflated due to Coors Field, making hitters seem better and pitchers seem worse. wRC+ adjusts for park effects, so that won't be inflated. I'll include ERA- for pitchers, which adjusts for park and in which lower is better.
The Rockies could go in any number of directions, but I believe one of those directions could be towards the playoffs. This is one of the better teams they've fielded in a while, thanks in no small part to their ability to actually build a pitching staff. Jon Gray, the third overall pick of the 2013 draft, put up a 4.61 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 29 starts last season, which is actually really good when you consider he was pitching in Coors Field. His ERA- of 94 means that he was 6% better (100-94) than the average starter. While Gray took the big step forward the Rockies were hoping for, Tyler Chatwood took the step forward nobody expected. His 3.87 ERA (79 ERA-) and 1.37 WHIP were some of the best we've seen from Rockies starters. Tyler Anderson (3.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 72 ERA-) was a similar surprise. After those three, though, it gets a bit murky, especially considering the uncertain status of Chad Bettis (4.79 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 98 ERA-), who is battling cancer and is out indefinitely. Five young arms will continually compete for those last two spots, including Jeff Hoffman, Antonio Senzatela, German Marquez, Harrison Musgrave, and Kyle Freeland. Freeland and Hoffman were taken with back to back picks in the first round of the 2014 MLB Draft, with Freeland going to Colorado at #8 overall and Hoffman ending up with the Blue Jays at #9 overall. Hoffman briefly reached the majors for eight games (six starts) in 2016 (4.88 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, 100 ERA-), while Freeland split the season between AA and AAA. Marquez and Senzatela are highly regarded prospects in their own rights, with Marquez reaching the majors at 21 years old last season (5.23 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 107 ERA-) and Senzatela impressing the team this spring. Lastly, Harrison Musgrave is more likely to wind up in the bullpen, but he did reach AAA as a starter in 2016. The bullpen could have one of the best relievers in the game in Greg Holland if he's healthy, and Adam Ottavino and Jake McGee aren't bad options either. Mike Dunn essentially replaces Boone Logan, and Carlos Estevez and Jason Motte are solid pieces as well. Of course, in Coors Field, everything comes down to hitting, and the Rockies have plenty of it per usual. Nolan Arenado (.294/.362/.570, 124 wRC+), Charlie Blackmon (.324/.381/.552, 130 wRC+), and Carlos Gonzalez (.298/.350/.505, 108 wRC+) form a solid offensive core, while Trevor Story (.272/.341/.567, 120 wRC+) and DJ LeMahieu (.348/.416/.495, 128 wRC+) are also nice pieces. Neither Story nor LeMahieu are likely to keep up the pace they set in 2016, but this offense is not something to mess with, especially in Coors Field. Once Ian Desmond (.285/.335/.446, 106 wRC+ not in Coors) comes back from his hand injury, the team will only get better. Some young guys to watch include Cristhian Adames, Raimel Tapia, and of course, David Dahl, who was successful in his 63 game stint last season (.315/.359/.500, 111 wRC+). Tony Wolters, another young guy at just 24 years old, will do the catching after a moderately successful 71 game rookie stint (.259/.327/.395, 75 wRC+). Dustin Garneau and Tom Murphy, once he comes back from his arm injury, will push Wolters for playing time behind the plate.
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