For the second consecutive season, the Washington Nationals have won the MLB Draft Lottery, and for the third straight year they have positioned themselves for a top-two pick. They were ineligible to claim that number one overall pick last year and wound up selecting Seaver King tenth overall, but this time they'll do so for the first time since selecting Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper first overall in back to back drafts in 2009 and 2010. There is no clear frontrunner at this point, with bats Ethan Holliday and Jace LaViolette seemingly separating themselves as the most famous prospects in the draft for now, but pure hit tool questions are present for both. Behind them, two college arms have risen to the top of a shallow class in that regard, while Holliday narrowly leads an incredibly deep class of high school bats.
LHP Jamie Arnold, Florida State. My rank: #1.
Between Jamie Arnold and Tyler Bremner, the clear cut top two college arms in this class, Bremner is the more traditional prospect while Arnold brings a more unique, new school profile. That would seemingly make Bremner the more likely target for Washington, a more traditional organization, but Arnold has been so good that he's certainly worth keeping an eye on and he has pushed to the top of my draft board. In a year where offense was up across the board, Arnold seemingly missed the memo and went 11-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 159 strikeouts, the latter of which was far and away the highest total of any underclassman in the country – the next best sophomore was Wofford righty Zac Cowan, whose 124 strikeouts came while pitching against weaker competition in the SoCon as opposed to Arnold's ACC schedule. The stuff here is dynamite. Arnold's low to mid 90's fastball peaks at 97, impressive velocity for a lefty in its own right. His best pitch is a plus slider that dives across the plate with a foot of sweeping action, sending ACC hitters flailing and likely to make even MLB hitters look foolish when he snaps it right. While he primarily relies on the fastball and slider, his changeup has made strides and is looking like a solid average pitch with above average flashes and could be a game changer if it continues to improve. Everything plays up out of Arnold's hand due to his sidearm delivery, creating an ultra low release height that creates a very uncomfortable at bat for hitters. The low release point puts more run and sink on his fastball than ride, but it's still effective both up and down in the zone. Meanwhile, the 6'1" lefty has one more trait that makes him a unicorn, and that's his command. If it's tough enough facing a sidearming lefty with a fastball up to 97 and a devastating slider, he compounds that by pounding the strike zone and walking just 5.8% of his opponents last year, a feat virtually unheard of from his profile. The Tampa native has true ace upside if he can continue to develop on a normal path.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: The book is straightforward here. The fastball and slider are good to go. Arnold's biggest focus should be refining his changeup, as continuing its positive trajectory by upping its usage in 2025 and truly incorporating it into his arsenal will make him a complete pitcher. I believe he can do it. Then of course, command is always the last X factor. Arnold has the command right now, so he'll simply need to avoid taking a step back in that regard in 2025. Though it's not the profile the Nationals look for, a three pitch lefty with explosive stuff and above average command will be hard for Mike Rizzo to overlook.
OF Jace LaViolette, Texas A&M. My rank: #2.
At this point, Jace LaViolette appears to be the very slight frontrunner as the best prospect in the class. A superstar since his very first days on campus at Texas A&M, he has done nothing but blast fifty home runs and slash .297/.433/.683 in 132 games for the Aggies so far, all before he could legally buy a drink. If the Nationals want an impact bat at the top of the draft, they should look no further. The power is unquestionable. Standing 6'6", LaViolette's left handed swing is naturally geared towards lofting balls to the pull side while his extra large frame provides the power to send balls rocketing off his barrel. While the swing is more pull-oriented, he has more than enough power to leave the park to any field at any time, and his 29 home runs in 2024 were the most by any non-draft-eligible college hitter last year. The Houston-area native is a patient hitter who also led all underclassmen with 64 walks last season, helping him spit on breaking balls and get that fastball he loves to crush. LaViolette's primary weakness is against quality offspeed in the zone, with his long levers causing some swing and miss issues that led to an elevated 24.3% strikeout rate last year. No matter how much power you have, striking out a quarter of the time makes it tough to get drafted in the first round, let alone first overall. Last year, only two first rounders ran strikeout rates of 20% or higher – #12 pick Braden Montgomery (20%) and #22 pick Vance Honeycutt (27.5%). LaViolette is a solid runner underway, though at his size he lacks the quick twitch first step to play center field and likely settles into right field, where he should be an above average defender with an above average arm. These days many tall college sluggers get compared to Aaron Judge, but it's an apt comp for LaViolette with the caveat that he bats left handed. As it stands today, no hitter in this draft has a better chance to anchor a big league lineup as an MVP-caliber bat.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: The power is there. The approach is there. He's gotten opportunities to play center field while in college and while proving he could stick there would go a long way towards slotting him into the first overall pick, that does seem a bit unlikely and the Nationals are probably more or less comfortable projecting him as a right fielder. That leaves the hit tool as the primary barometer here. If he can continue to keep the chases down and cut down the in zone swing and miss, getting his strikeout rate under about 20% or preferably even lower would be the best thing he could do for his chances to go first overall.
RHP Tyler Bremner, UC Santa Barbara. My rank: #3.
It's a very different profile, but Tyler Bremner is every bit as talented as Jamie Arnold and as a more traditional starting pitcher, he probably fits the Nationals' mold a little better. Bremner was one of the better pitching prospects in Southern California in 2022, but made it to campus at UC Santa Barbara and broke out for an excellent 2024 in which he went 11-1 with a 2.54 ERA and a 104/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings. The fastball sits mid 90's and touches 98, a tick harder than Arnold, coming in with a ton of riding life out of a relatively low release point. He throws a plus slider that works between a sweeper and more of a gyro pitch, getting the type of break he needs for the situation. A separator here from Arnold, though is his changeup. While Arnold is mostly a fastball/slider guy right now, Bremner might have the best changeup in the draft with massive drop that just dives under bats with ease. Listed at 6'2", 190 pounds, he's big enough to handle a starter's workload and repeats his delivery well, helping him pound the strike zone with average command and above average control. It's an extremely well-rounded profile with no holes, with a high probability of becoming a mid-rotation starter or better.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Bremner already has a chance for three plus pitches, so there's nothing on the to-do list there. Like most college pitchers, he'll just need to focus on the two classics – stay healthy and stay in the strike zone. Having already thrown 144 innings over two years in Santa Barbara thus far, health hasn't been an issue yet, and his 6.4% career walk rate is plenty low enough to satisfy a picky front office. Fine tuning his command within the zone while maintaining his high end stuff could get him over the hump to the first overall pick.
SS Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]. My rank: #4.
Three years ago, Jackson Holliday was the first overall pick of the 2022 draft, but younger brother Ethan enters his senior season at Stillwater High School in Oklahoma as a much better prospect. Jackson entered the 2022 draft cycle with more of an early second round projection, then came out for his senior year looking significantly more physical and put up a fantastic season to push his way to the top of the draft. Ethan, however, is already there and the 1-1 spot is well within reach. First off, he has four inches and fifteen-plus pounds on his older brother, leading to a very different profile. While Jackson was a hit-over-power type who grew into his pop, Ethan easily projects for plus power with a powerful left handed swing that naturally lofts the ball to make use of his imposing 6'4" frame. Having grown up around the game with a pair of Oklahoma State head coaches in his family and an MLB All Star father, Holliday's high baseball IQ is apparent on the field. He controls the strike zone well and taps his power in games, though at this point his long levers can create some swing and miss in the zone. At the top of the draft, defensive value is important, and Ethan provides that as well. A shortstop at present, he shows the same polish and baseball IQ on the dirt with smooth actions and a strong arm, though his size and lack of first step quickness will likely push him to third base in the long run. He'll still be solid to above average at the hot corner. While some prospect fatigue may have set in at this point, it would be perfectly reasonable for Holliday to match his older brother's draft position on his way to belting 30+ home runs annually to go with solid on-base percentages with a strong glove on the left side of the infield.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Holliday's biggest obstacle may be prospect fatigue at this point, having been closely followed since his freshman year of high school, which was also his brother's senior year. No one is questioning the power, but he'll have to make more contact than perhaps others in his position to stop that prospect fatigue from creeping up. More evaluators have questioned his pure bat to ball over the past six months ago, and while he won't face the toughest competition in northern Oklahoma, he'll want to keep the swing and miss to a minimum. Additionally, it will be helpful to show a little more athleticism to give hope he can stick at shortstop.
RHP Seth Hernandez, Corona HS [CA]. My rank: #6.
No high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and with NIL drawing more talent to college and teams pivoting just a little bit away from pitchers early in the draft, it seems less likely than ever to happen. Over the past seventeen years, the Nationals have drafted just one high school pitcher, Mason Denaburg (2018), in the first round. Seth Hernandez, though, has a chance to be the best high school pitching prospect since Jackson Jobe in 2021, and for that reason it's not out of the question that he ends both of those droughts. It's a huge right arm that sits in the mid 90's and reached triple digits over the summer, though the pitch stands out more for its velocity than its movement. His breaking ball is still searching for its identity, ranging from slurvy curveball to a cuttery sweeper to more of a bullet slider. At this point, that's the lone hole in his profile. Similar to Tyler Bremner, he throws a devastating changeup with late diving action that leaves high school hitters helpless, a true separator for a teenage pitcher. Though he's up there tickling triple digits, Hernandez has a smooth, athletic delivery with little wasted movement and nice extension down the mound. That lets him pound the strike zone with reasonably solid command, which should hold as he continues to fill out. The Southern California native has top of the rotation upside if he puts it together.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Health and command are evergreen checkboxes in this section for any pitcher, and of course Hernandez needs to stay healthy and throw his share of strikes. The big opportunity here, though, will be his breaking ball. His fastball and changeup are already both plus pitches, so finding a more consistent slider and/or curveball could make him a truly complete pitching prospect. At present, he probably belongs more in the 5-10 range on talent (bonus demands notwithstanding).
SS Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS [OK]. My rank: #7.
We're going to talk about Jackson Holliday again. While his younger brother, Ethan, is arguably the most famous name in this draft and has his sights set on 1-1, it's actually Eli Willits who shares the most similarities to the Orioles' shortstop of the future. Willits, like Holliday, is the son of a former major leaguer and current college coach, Reggie Willits, and lives in rural Oklahoma. With a similar average frame that isn't quite physically mature yet and a game predicated more on polish than present physicality, extending further similarities to Holliday. Holliday came out for his senior season in 2022 looking more physical than he had in the past, and early indications are that Willits may be in the same boat which is creating significant heat for the prep infielder. He's a switch hitter with a very simple swing from both sides of the plate, using his excellent plate coverage to go with the pitch and drive the ball with authority to all fields consistently. This has enabled him to be one of the top performers on the showcase circuit for a long time despite playing against much older competition – he only turned 17 in December, making him a full year younger, even a year in a half in some cases, than most of his counterparts. The power isn't quite there yet, as he's listed at just 165 pounds for now and needs to really turn on and crank the ball to get it out. That's where the age comes in again, with the hope that his youth brings significant added physicality going forward. Similar to his offense, he brings a polished glove at shortstop with above average arm and range to give him a good shot to stick at the premium position. He's also quick enough to play center field if needed, but the Nationals likely won't need that with much more depth in the grass than the dirt.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Jackson Holliday entered his senior season with a strikingly similar profile to Eli Willits, then came out looking much more physical in the spring. It appears Willits is tacking on physicality as well, so if added impact and over the fence power comes this spring as well, he could follow the exact same path to the first overall pick. He's set to play his entire pro debut at 17 years old, so the power should be coming. Proving he can stick at shortstop, which is not unlikely, will also help.
SS Aiva Arquette, Oregon State. My rank: #11.
The top prospect in a loaded Oregon State lineup that also includes Trent Caraway (#26), Gavin Turley (#33), and Dallas Macias (unranked), Aiva Arquette is a scout favorite who seems to be a "pick to click" for many. A highly regarded high school prospect from the Honolulu area, he put up a strong sophomore season at Washington in 2024 (12 HR, .325/.384/.574) then raised his profile further by hitting .291/.357/.437 on the Cape and impressing evaluators as he improved throughout. Clocking in at 6'4", 220 pounds, he has a big league body right now and has seen his on-field production steadily improve to match. He channels that size into above average power which he taps naturally with the ability to drive the ball in the air with authority. His approach is somewhat aggressive, which has led to subpar strikeout to walk ratios in Seattle and on the Cape, but he makes plenty of contact despite a swoopier right handed swing and is trending hard in the right direction. His bigger size might make shortstop a tough sell, but he has the mobility and arm strength to play an above average third base down the road. Similar to his offense, scouts have been impressed by the progress he's made with his glove and some believe he can stick at shortstop. With his glove and bat both trending hard in the right direction, he has a chance to turn himself into an above average all around hitter with the defense to stick on the left side of the infield and a track record of hitting through high school, college, and summer leagues.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Arquette may not be the flashiest option at the top of the draft, but if he cuts his chases in 2025, the strikeout rate will likely follow and he'll have a very productive season in Corvallis. Additionally, continuing to show well at shortstop will up his value if the Nationals believe he can stick there. If Arquette does go first overall, he would likely be an under-slot option due to a lower ceiling.
LHP Cameron Appenzeller, Glenwood HS [IL]. My rank: #15.
Glenwood High School just outside of Springfield, Illinois has produced numerous major leaguers, most notably former Nationals star Jayson Werth. If Mike Rizzo wants another Glenwood alumnus, Cameron Appenzeller could be an interesting option. As mentioned under Seth Hernandez, the Nationals have taken just one high school pitcher in the first round over the past seventeen years, but it can always happen. Appenzeller is a 6'6" lefty, which will already make scouts sit up and take notice. The fastball isn't overwhelming, sitting in the low 90's and peaking around 94, and he works between both a four and two seam. He has a nice, deep slider with plenty of sweep that he shows good feel for, working it to both sides of the plate and understanding how to deploy it to get the best results. His changeup gives him a third solid option with nice fade. Appenzeller does not sell out for velocity, instead using an athletic, free and easy delivery to help him pound the strike zone with better command than most high school pitchers. His low three quarters arm slot creates a tough look for hitters, with a low, wide release point and an east-west profile. He's not quite a top ten pick at this point, but he could get there quickly as soon as the Southern Illinois weather warms up this spring with all the ingredients to become an ace.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Command is always the X factor, and while he shows good command for a high school arm, Appenzeller of course has a long ways to go in that regard like any teenager. In order to vault into the 1-1 conversation, though, he'll need to add significant velocity to his fastball and power to his breaking ball. With plenty of projection, that could certainly happen if he comes out a little more filled out this spring. Those strength gains would also allow the velocity to come naturally so that he can keep pounding the strike zone with his low effort delivery. Appenzeller has ace upside if he adds power across his arsenal.
SS Dean Curley, Tennessee. My rank: #18.
We're moving farther away from the current contenders for the first overall pick, but I'm a believer in Dean Curley's skill set and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit his way to the top. It's not easy to barge into Knoxville and claim the starting shortstop role as a freshman, but Curley did just that and hit .285/.386/.502 in 67 games last year. Having turned 19 while he was still in high school, he entered school the age of a college sophomore and will be draft-eligible and age-appropriate this year. He's a lean, physical 6'3" with an efficient right handed swing that causes the ball to jump off his bat with eye-popping exit velocities, lending to above average power. Meanwhile, he's a disciplined hitter that makes contact at a high rate, which kept his strikeout rate to a reasonable 17.5% as a freshman and which will likely help him lower it further in 2025. Together, as he fills out his still-projectable frame, he has a chance to become an above average hitter with above average power. He doesn't have quite as much juice as last year's eighth overall pick and former Volunteer Christian Moore, and he's a better pure hitter, but his balanced bat could help him break out in a similar way in 2025. To this point, Curley has shown well at shortstop with the requisite instincts and mobility to go with a cannon right arm. Most projections have him moving to third base in time, where like Aiva Arquette he'll fit better given his size and lack of explosive athleticism.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: I don't think there is one specific X factor for Curley. Last year, his under-the-hood numbers were better than his surface numbers, and he'll look for the latter to catch up to the former in 2025. The Nationals don't necessarily need major leaps from Curley in any one area, rather they'll look for him to elevate his game by about a half grade or so in all aspects - power, contact, defense, and overall athleticism. I'm a believer that Curley can do that.
RHP Chase Shores, Louisiana State. My rank: #38.
If the draft were today, Chase Shores may not even go in the first round, but he may have the best chance of any non-first round prospects at this point to push himself into consideration at the top of the draft. Shores was a well-known prospect out of high school in West Texas, then showed well to start his freshman season at LSU in 2023. Unfortunately, he went down with Tommy John surgery after seven appearances and missed his entire sophomore season, so he enters 2025 with just 18.1 innings under his belt. However, his huge stuff gives him every chance to vault forward. Listed at a massive 6'8", 245 pounds, he comes with as much arm strength as any pitcher in the class, capable of sitting in the mid to upper 90's for innings at a time and touching as high as 102 back in high school. The slider has big potential, too, with his best flashing plus with hard two-plane snap, though it can be inconsistent. His changeup plays well off his fastball and could be an above average pitch with increased usage, giving him a chance for three above average to plus pitches. The delivery is a bit raw at this point, but it's important to note that he hasn't had much chance to work on it since coming to campus. He showed fringy command in his brief stint in 2023.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: To put it simply, everything. They'll want to see him come back healthy, first and foremost, and shoulder a full season's load. Then, they'll look to see if he has ironed out his delivery now that he's healthy and hopefully work to average or better command. Above average command would of course be a long shot, but the stuff is so loud that he might still be a National with average command if everything else breaks right. If that slider that has ranged between average and plus can come out more consistently plus this spring, and if the changeup can emerge as consistently above average, then he might be just fine with average command and a fastball approaching triple digits. It's a long to-do list, but Shores has very little mileage on his arm since coming to Baton Rouge and a clean bill of health could be just what the doctor ordered.
Other Options
#5 3B Xavier Neyens, Mount Vernon HS [WA]
#8 OF Cam Cannarella, Clemson
#9 SS/RHP Billy Carlson, Corona HS [CA]
#13 OF Sean Gamble, IMG Academy [FL]
#16 LHP/1B Kruz Schoolcraft, Sunset HS [OR]
