Tuesday, August 29, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Boston Red Sox

Full list of draftees

The Red Sox had seven of the first 151 picks in this year's draft due to the losses of Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi, giving them a lot more wiggle room to get creative. Indeed, after a fantastic first pick in which they saved over $650,000 on a consensus top ten talent in Kyle Teel, they used their next two picks to go nearly $2 million over slot combined and bring in two of the better high school bats in the class. In all, the Red Sox were more focused on contact bats than they have been in years past, perhaps looking to balance after previously searching for power bats in the middle rounds.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-14: C Kyle Teel, Virginia {video}
Slot value: $4.66 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($663,100 below slot value).
My rank: #8. MLB Pipeline: #7. Baseball America: #10. Prospects Live: #6.
Taking draft position and signing bonus into account, this may be one of the best picks of the entire first round. Kyle Teel was a virtual consensus top ten prospect in this draft, but lasted until the Red Sox at pick #14. Not only that, but they got him for a large under slot signing bonus, signing him for less than the slot value of the #18 pick and saving more than $650,000 against their bonus pool. Teel is a big time addition to the Red Sox' system, with many scouts pointing to the notion that he may have the quickest path to becoming one of the best at his position in the majors of any player in this draft. He was a potential top 100 pick as a high school senior in 2020, but pulled his name from the draft and made it to campus at Virginia, where he immediately established himself as one of the best catchers in the ACC. However, he took a step back in 2022 and hit "just" .276/.402/.439 on the season before really struggling over the summer both with the US Collegiate National Team and on the Cape (.146/.271/.195 combined in 14 games). Eager to re-establish himself as a blue chip prospect in 2023, he did so and then some with a massive junior campaign in which he slashed .407/.475/.655 with 13 home runs and a 36/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games. Previously employing a rigid, noisy setup, he cleaned that up in 2023 and it paid major dividends. His setup is still rhythm-based, with reduce stabbing action in his load before exploding onto the ball with average power. Teel employs a professional approach at the plate, working counts well and making plenty of contact (you don't hit .400 if you don't), so the hit tool is comfortably above average. Together, that could mean 15-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, with something of a Joe Mauer offensive ceiling (maybe sans that outlier 2009 MVP season). The North Jersey native is also a much better athlete than most at his position, with the ability to play the infield or outfield if needed. His athleticism helps him behind the plate as well, where he's a solid blocker and receiver with a plus arm, so he'll stick back there and the extra positions will help his profile more in the form of versatility than a backup option. Teel has continued his hot hitting ways so far in pro ball, slashing .435/.534/.565 with one home run and a 7/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 13 games between the Florida Complex League and High A Greenville.

2-50: 3B Nazzan Zanetello, Christian Brothers HS [MO] {video}
Slot value: $1.7 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($1.3 million above slot value).
My rank: #42. MLB Pipeline: #52. Baseball America: #110. Prospects Live: #54.
Nazzan Zanetello was a consensus second round prospect (not sure what Baseball America is doing over there), but the Red Sox are clearly smitten with the star infielder after giving him close to the slot value for the #27 pick here at #50 to sign away from an Arkansas commitment. And with good reason. Zanetello is extraordinarily talented and has been coming into his own on the field in a big way, and Boston is thrilled to get in on the ground floor. He has lightning quick hands in the box that help him produce explosive bat speed, giving him above average raw power that could grow into more in time as he fills out his 6'2" frame and learns to elevate with authority. He has gotten streaky against higher quality pitching and will likely need some refinements to that right handed swing, though he has already impressed evaluators with his ability to take professional at bats. With the bat speed, line drive-oriented stroke, and a bat path that can get choppy at times, the Red Sox have a lot to play with to mold him into the kind of hitter they'd like him to be. I could see Zanetello developing in any number of directions offensively, but I'm confident the end product will be a good one. His athleticism also plays on the defensive side, where he ranges well side to side and his strong arm helps make him a pretty complete defender. The Red Sox interestingly drafted him as a third baseman when I thought he had a chance to at least try his hand at shortstop, but the St. Louis native should be above average at the hot corner. This is an exciting profile to mold from a young age, though he has started slowly, slashing .158/.319/.237 with a 15/9 strikeout to walk ratio through 13 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Salem.

3-83: SS Antonio Anderson, North Atlanta HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: $846,800. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($653,200 above slot value).
My rank: #59. MLB Pipeline: #77. Baseball America: #68. Prospects Live: #87.
The Red Sox spent big again in the third round, going more than $650,000 above slot value to sign Antonio Anderson away from a Georgia Tech commitment. He's already a very well-rounded hitter with a chance to be above average all around. A switch hitter, he has a more power-oriented stroke from the left side but is a bit quicker and more line drive-oriented from the right. Already physically mature at 6'3", 205 pounds, the ball really jumps off his bat to all fields and he doesn't have to sell out to get to his power. He also takes very professional at bats and makes lots of contact, though his left handed swing can get long when he does begin searching for power. Many high school switch hitters take longer to develop, but Anderson should be able to make the jump to pro ball pretty seamlessly. He's certainly more about strength over athleticism, with fringy speed and more methodical actions in the field rather than the quick twitch you see from most shortstops. For that reason, I actually thought Nazzan Zanetello had a better shot at sticking at shortstop, but the Red Sox drafted Zanetello as a third baseman and Anderson as a shortstop. It's mostly symbolic, but it does provide a lens into the organization's aspirations. The Atlanta native has plenty of arm strength and should be able to handle third base so long as he doesn't slow down too much more, where he profiles as an all-around impact bat that can hit near the middle of the lineup. So far, he's slashing just .167/.259/.250 with a 10/3 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Salem, but of course it's very early.

4-115: RHP Matt Duffy, Canisius {video}
Slot value: $580,200. Signing bonus: $350,000 ($230,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #474. Prospects Live: #234.
Kyle Teel's discount only covered Antonio Anderson's bonus, so the Red Sox began saving money for Nazzan Zanetello here with Matt Duffy. Not to be confused with Royals infielder Matt Duffy or with recent Astros infielder Matt Duffy, this Matt Duffy has been a consistent stalwart for Canisius for a while now. In 2023, he posted a 4.32 ERA and a 124/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.1 innings. Duffy has a bit of a back-end starter profile for now, but there's more in the tank. For now, he sits around 90, usually a tick above, and tops out around 95 with his fastball. He has tremendous feel for his breaking balls but at this point they're a bit soft, and he does work in a solid changeup. It's not the most exciting profile on the surface, but the Red Sox have reason to believe there is upside to tap. The 6'2" righty is extremely athletic on the mound, getting great extension while also generating riding life on his fastball, making the pitch play well above its modest velocity. His athleticism also helps him fill the strike zone with above average command, and he's projectable enough to see perhaps a few ticks of added velocity once he gets stronger. That added velocity will really benefit his breaking balls, because with a little more power, he could really keep hitters off balance with his feel to manipulate shape and locate. The Toronto-area native gives the Red Sox a lot to play with here. He tossed a clean inning in his Florida Complex League debut, striking out one.

4C-132: SS Kristian Campbell, Georgia Tech {video}
Slot value: $492,700. Signing bonus: $492,700.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #255. Prospects Live: #245.
There were a lot of famous high contact, lower power bats in this year's class, and Kristian Campbell was perhaps considered a tier behind names like Christian Knapczyk and Tommy Hawke, but the Red Sox saw something in him and popped him for full slot value here in the post-fourth round compensation round. Campbell didn't play as a true freshman in 2022, and because he was old for his class he was already draft eligible as a sophomore, so he need to establish himself quickly. He certainly did so, slashing .376/.484/.549 with four home runs and a 17/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games. Campbell is an elite contact hitter with exceptional bat to ball skills, leading to just a 7.8% strikeout rate despite a fairly aggressive approach that has him offering at balls all over the zone. He sets up in a bit of a crouch with his weight held over his back leg, then rocks forward to send line drives around the field. It's mostly a line drive and ground ball approach, but the Atlanta-area native is a big guy at 6'3" and could tap more power as he learns to elevate in pro ball. Given his innate ability to find the barrel consistently, he should have no issue with a swing change that prioritizes power a little bit more. Campbell is also a versatile defender that could end up anywhere on the field, really, though he'll need more refinement to stick in the infield. If he moves to the outfield, his plus speed could help him stick in center field. He is red hot to begin his career, slashing .387/.537/.677 with one home run and an 8/5 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Salem.

4C-133: 2B Justin Riemer, Wright State {video}
Slot value: $487,800. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($12,200 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #185.
One pick after they picked up Khristian Campbell for $492,700, the Red Sox grabbed a very similar profile in Justin Riemer for $500,000. Riemer, like Campbell, did not play his true freshman season, then burst onto the scene with a big redshirt freshman season in 2022 in which he slashed .329/.454/.459 with two home runs and a 12/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. It took him just twelve games to top 2022's home run total this year, but that twelfth game would be his last of the season (and his third home run would be his final at bat) due to a knee injury and he finished slashing .323/.563/.645 with an incredible 2/15 strikeout to walk ratio. As you might expect, Riemer has an elite approach in the box that led to a minuscule 6.0% strikeout rate for his career compared to an extremely high 19.7% walk rate. It's really, really hard to beat him in the zone, but he won't chase out of the zone so as a pitcher you just have to pray for weak contact and trust your defense. Riemer has a quick, whippy right handed swing but at a skinny six feet tall, he has below average power and will always be hit over power. He's a solid runner but the same lack of physicality that limits his power potential also limits his arm, so he'll likely play second base long term. The Northern Virginia native may have just been beginning to break out when he went down with that ill-timed knee injury, and the Red Sox certainly believe he was so they're happy to draft way higher than most boards listed him. 

5-151: LHP Connelly Early, Virginia {video}
Slot value: $408,500. Signing bonus: $408,500.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #305.
Connelly Early spent his first two years at Army then transferred to home to Virginia, where he didn't miss a beat and posted a 3.09 ERA and a 100/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 87.1 innings. Early sits in the low 90's with his fastball which can play up with crossfire action, while also spinning a pair of breaking balls and a changeup that play up from his angle. The changeup is likely the best of his four pitches for now, and together it's a solid big league arsenal. The 6'3" lefty has a nice combination of present physicality and future projection, repeating his delivery well and throwing plenty of strikes. It's a nice back-end starter profile with a chance for more if he can add a little bit of power. Unlike Noah Song, Early will not have to deal with a military service commitment.

11-328: OF Nelly Taylor, Polk State JC [FL] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($150,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #432.
The Red Sox spent the last of their bonus pool money on Nelly Taylor, a Florida JuCo product that had been committed to transfer to Florida State. Taylor had a great season at Polk State, where he slashed .353/.467/.620 with six home runs, 31 stolen bases, and a 42/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games. As you might expect for a 20 year old JuCo bat, Taylor is fairly raw at the plate but he has a ton of talent. Wiry and strong at 6'1", he has an explosive left handed swing but to this point has hit more balls into the gaps than over the fence. He ran a bit of an elevated strikeout rate at 18.2% with some swing and miss in the zone, so it remains to be seen how he will handle more advanced stuff when pitchers start attacking him over the plate. The Tampa-area native is a plus runner that should stick in center field long term, which will help him profile well as a fourth outfielder if the hit tool doesn't fully come around. There is upside, though, which is why the Red Sox spent an extra $150,000 against their bonus pool to grab him for sixth round money. 

12-358: RHP Max Carlson, North Carolina {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #385. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Carlson family is well known to scouts. Sam Carlson was the 55th overall pick in 2017 and is currently a reliever in High A for the Mariners, while younger brother Max was a well known prospect in high school that made it to campus at UNC. Results were up and down, and he finished his 2023 season with a 5.45 ERA and a 76/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings. Carlson is an extremely athletic right hander that explodes gracefully down the mound, with a long arm stroke and a reasonably clean delivery. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 95 at best, and his changeup plays off it beautifully with fading action to the arm side. To find success in pro ball, he'll have to get more consistent with spinning the breaking ball, as he doesn't really trust it at this point and prefers to live in the zone with the fastball and changeup. Carlson pounds the strike zone but is definitely more control over command, and his lack of an effective breaking ball can lead to him getting hit over the plate. While he has been used almost exclusively as a starter in Chapel Hill, he's probably a reliever long term and I think he could be an interesting prospect in that role. Like Matt Duffy, he tossed a clean inning in his Florida Complex League debut, striking out two.

18-538: LHP Zach Fogell, Connecticut {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
It took eighteen rounds, but the Red Sox did draft a New Englander here at the end of the draft. Zach Fogell grew up in Cumberland, Rhode Island, attending Cumberland High School in the northeastern corner of the state just 32 miles southwest of Fenway Park. He spent the first four years of his career at Brown University, but only pitched in 2019 and 2022 due to the Ivy League's extreme lockdown measures that extended through the entire 2020 and 2021 seasons. Transferring to UConn for his graduate year, he dominated the Big East to the tune of a 1.87 ERA and a 45/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings exclusively as a reliever. Fogell sits in the low 90's with his fastball, which can have some sneaky late life at times. His slider has nice depth and can really be tough on lefties, while his changeup is a third pitch that can get firm. The 5'11" lefty has fringy command and profiles best as a left handed middle reliever in pro ball, where that fastball/slider combination will be tough in a matchup situation. He allowed a hit and a walk in his first one inning appearance in the Florida Complex League, but he got out without any damage and earned a strikeout.

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