Lacking a second and a fifth round pick after signing Xander Bogaerts didn't stop the Padres from going all in on high schoolers yet again, plucking six preps including with five of their six largest signing bonuses. It was a bit of an old school class, focusing more on speed, defense, and command than on electric stuff or big power. Starting with Dillon Head, a hit over power speedster, continuing with J.D. Gonzalez, a glove-first catcher, and also including command-oriented preps like Blake Dickerson, Dane Lais, and Adler Cecil, with much more projection than present stuff. Overall, the Padres saved money early and found themselves more than $600,000 below slot after seven rounds, then spread that money around to numerous overslot bonuses in rounds 8-13.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.
1-25: OF Dillon Head, Homewood Flossmoor HS [IL] {video}
Slot value: $3.17 million. Signing bonus: $2.8 million ($365,400 below slot value).
My rank: #40. MLB Pipeline: #27. Baseball America: #34. Prospects Live: #36.
The Padres never shy away from preps early in the draft, and stayed true to form with one of the more exciting talents in the draft in Dillon Head. Head stands out first for his plus-plus speed, earning top of the scale grades from some evaluators that makes him a menace on the basepaths. He also shows strong bat to ball skills and rarely swings and misses, giving him ample opportunity to show off that speed in games. Over the summer, he was viewed more in the second round range than the first because of questions over his potential impact, but he came out looking stronger in 2023 and showed more ability to drive the ball to the pull side, now looking like he could reach double digit home runs in time. It's still very much a hit over power profile and always will be. If there's one more piece to nitpick about his bat, it's that he can pull off balls on the outer half trying to turn on them and with his skill set, he'd be better served using the whole field a little bit better. Still, it's a true leadoff profile with the chance for high on-base percentages and high stolen base totals. Defensively, the Chicago-area product could become a plus defender in center field with his speed and feel for reading the ball off the bat. With increased physicality has also come some nice arm strength. It's a very well-rounded profile for a prep, especially as a left handed hitter. He signed away from a Clemson commitment for well below slot value, giving the Padres the chance to spread some bonus money around.
3-96: C J.D. Gonzalez, Anita Otero Hernandez HS [PR] {video}
Slot value: $698,600. Signing bonus: $550,000 ($148,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #213. Baseball America: #214. Prospects Live: #250.
The Padres made Jandaniel "J.D." Gonzalez the first player drafted out of Puerto Rico this year (and second Puerto Rican overall after Sabin Ceballos), taking him a little earlier than some expected and giving him a slightly under slot bonus to buy him away from an Indiana State commitment. Gonzalez is a glove-first catcher that stands out first and foremost for a plus arm behind the plate, gunning down runners no matter where the pitch is thrown. Beyond that, he's a strong defender overall that moves well behind the plate with a sturdy but not bulky 6', 180 pound frame. He'll stick back there, which is something not many prep catchers can guarantee, especially if they can hit. Gonzalez's bat is not as proven as his glove, but he shows off good power from an uppercut left handed swing, especially to the pull side. The swing can get a little long and disjointed at times, so the Padres will want to clean that up a little bit and get him more direct to the ball so he can tap his power in games. It's hard to call this a high upside play because it's not as if his exit velocities are other-worldly, but the offensive bar is much lower for catchers, especially strong defenders like him, and any kind of offensive impact would be a real boon to the profile. To top it off, Gonzalez is very young for the class, not turning 18 until October. That only makes him the second youngest prominent catching prospect in the system behind the famous Ethan Salas, who only just turned 17 in June and is already in Low A.
4-128: OF Homer Bush, Grand Canyon {video}
Slot value: $511,600. Signing bonus: $511,600.
My rank: #99. MLB Pipeline: #94. Baseball America: #84. Prospects Live: #82.
Homer Bush is a really interesting prospect that could develop in a number of directions for the Padres. The son of former Yankees, Blue Jays, and briefly Marlins second baseman Homer Bush, the younger Homer has gotten better and better every year at Grand Canyon University. After barely playing as a freshman in 2021, he took on a larger role as a sophomore in 2022 before breaking out in 2023, slashing .370/.478/.500 with a pair of home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 27/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games. He has an extremely projectable frame at 6'3" that looks like it could add a ton of strength, but for now, he's much more of a line drive/slash hitter than a slugger. With a short, choppy right handed swing designed to put the ball in play, he can get to balls all over and outside the zone with little swing and miss, in fact running a strikeout rate below 10% in 2023. With that choppy swing comes very little present game power, with just four career home runs and a 90th percentile exit velocity below 100 that puts him among the lowest of all early round draft picks. In terms of discipline, Bush is an aggressive hitter that is confident chasing pitches he thinks he can work with, but it's controlled aggression and he still ran a solid 10.4% walk rate in the Cape Cod League last year and 13.1% at Grand Canyon this year. The Padres will have to decide what they value here, as he could potentially hit for significantly more power as he fills out if they help him swing with more loft and intent, accepting some swing and miss along the way. That's probably the way they'll go, but his current slasher mentality has worked so far and it pairs well with his plus speed. That speed also helps the DFW native in the outfield, where he has a chance to be a plus defender in center field with a strong arm. In his first pro game in the Arizona Complex League, he went 1-3 with a walk and a stolen base.
6-191: 2B Jay Beshears, Duke {video}
Slot value: $287,700. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($37,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #191.
Jay Beshears began his career at Northwestern, where he parlayed a strong sophomore campaign into the opportunity to transfer to Duke, where he then slashed .330/.435/.584 with 15 home runs and a 45/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games in 2023. There is no standout tool here, but Beshears has a very solid all around offensive profile. He's big and strong at 6'4", 215 pounds, and has the ability to do damage against all pitch types while keeping his strikeout rates reasonable. He shows above average power and especially likes to turn on the ball and pull it down the left field line, though he can shorten up and go the other way if he needs to. The whole offensive profile is continually trending in the right direction and could continue to tick up in pro ball, where his power will play with wood, and he has a shot to be a 15-20 home run bat with solid on-base percentages if all goes well. The glove is a little less clear, as he has appeared all over the diamond but doesn't necessarily look above average anywhere. The Padres drafted him as a second baseman and will look to get a bat-first product there, but he may ultimately move to the outfield. In his first pro game in the ACL, he walked and struck out twice in his three plate appearances.
8-251: RHP Kannon Kemp, Weatherford HS [TX] {video}
Slot value: $188,800. Signing bonus: $625,000 ($436,200 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #209. Baseball America: #383. Prospects Live: #272.
After saving money in the early rounds, the Padres finally began to spend it in the eighth round, giving Kannon Kemp early fourth round money to buy him away from an Oklahoma commitment. They're mostly buying the raw arm talent, but Kemp has been trending in the right direction in a lot of ways and the Padres want to get in on the ground floor. The North Texas native presently sits in the low 90's, touching 95 at his best with running action. His slider is inconsistent but shows flashes of becoming a quality breaking ball with late bite, looking above average on its best days already. He also shows a changeup and a curveball a little less frequently, but they're there. The 6'6" righty is extremely physical and will almost certainly continue to add velocity in pro ball as he streamlines his delivery, which features extremely short arm action that may be holding him back a little. Similarly, his command has been trending in the right direction and now looks average, which is great for a kid with his size and arm strength at this age. Kemp is a little bit on the older side for the class and has a ways to go in his development, but the Padres are confident they can keep him moving in the right direction and get him there.
11-341: RHP Carson Montgomery, Florida State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($50,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: #163. MLB Pipeline: #211. Baseball America: #172. Prospects Live: #293.
Carson Montgomery represents one of the more interesting cases in the class. He was one of the better prep pitchers in the 2020 class and ranked as the top incoming freshman in all of college baseball when he reached campus at Florida State that fall, but unfortunately never put it together for the Seminoles. In three years in Tallahassee, he ran a 5.60 ERA and put up his worst year yet in 2023, with a 7.00 ERA and a 42/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 innings. Moving to the Cape Cod League to take one more shot at improving his draft stock this summer, he ran an 8.25 ERA and walked more than he struck out. So where does he stand now? The Orlando-area native has plenty of arm talent, running his fastball up to 98 at its best albeit with inconsistent velocity and generic movement. His slider is his best pitch, flashing plus with hard vertical bite, and that's the main thing that keeps me interested. He can work that slider into a cutter and is also continuing to refine his changeup, but the entire package is very inconsistent and he struggles to land all of his pitches for strikes. The 6'3" righty has a very athletic, projectable frame and has slowly refined his delivery, though he still struggles to repeat it and it includes a double leg lift as he breaks towards the plate. San Diego will need to completely overhaul the profile, taking the good (size, projectability, arm strength, feel for spin) while separating out the bad (lack of fastball deception/movement, inconsistent stuff, below average command). Montgomery is very young for a college junior and still won't turn 21 until August, giving the Padres a little extra time to sharpen things up. There's a nice ceiling here in this reclamation project but it will take serious work to get there.
12-371: LHP Blake Dickerson, Ocean Lakes HS [VA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($350,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: #129. MLB Pipeline: #158. Baseball America: #197. Prospects Live: #159.
For the second time in three years, Virginia Tech watched a blue chip pitching recruit make it through days one and two of the draft only to be scooped up by a West Coast team for a large over slot bonus on day three. While Mason Albright is throwing well in the Angels system, Blake Dickerson joins the Padres after signing for late fourth round money here in the twelfth round. He's a big, tall, projectable lefty that has a chance to develop into a real horse in the rotation. The stuff is a little light for now, with his fastball sitting around 90, usually a tick above, and only topping out around 93. He showcases a solid slider that could develop into a sneaky above average pitch, while his changeup has steadily come along as well. He won't blow you away, but he has a free and easy delivery featuring very little effort and as such he can fill up the strike zone with above average command uncommon for high schoolers. As the 6'6" Virginia Beach native learns to channel his size and power a little better, it's easy to see the stuff continuing to tick up while maintaining that command. That definitely will need to happen, though, because at this point the stuff is a little light for the higher levels.
13-401: RHP Dane Lais, Oregon City HS [OR] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $350,000 ($200,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Padres went above slot one more time to grab Dane Lais, who profiles a bit like a right handed Blake Dickerson. Lais has seen his stuff tick up and now sits in the low 90's, touching 93 like Dickerson. His slider has taken a step forward and has the makings of an average offering, perhaps above average in time, while he has continued to show good feel for a changeup to round out a three pitch mix. Like Dickerson, he has a free and easy delivery that promises more velocity as he begins to throw with more intent, and he fills up the strike zone well for his age. The 6'4" righty is plenty projectable and could become a very solid back-end starter as he fills out. He's also fairly young for the class to boot. Committed to Oregon State, Lais instead signed with the Padres for early sixth round money.
19-581: LHP Adler Cecil, Temecula Valley HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Padres couldn't help themselves, needing one more high schooler to round out their draft. They went way, way off the beaten path with this one, grabbing Adler Cecil who like Dane Lais was not ranked on any major boards but in this case didn't even secure a college commitment until late in the process. Cecil is a local kid out of Temecula Valley High School, in the southwestern corner of Riverside County just up I-15 from San Diego. He was headed to San Diego anyways with a commitment to Palomar College in San Marcos, so the Padres just pulled him a little farther down 15 to PETCO Park to sign his contract. Cecil is rail thin at a listed 6'4", 160 pounds, and didn't turn 18 until May putting him on the younger side for the class. The stuff is not there yet, with his fastball sitting in the low to mid 80's as of the fall before touching 92 in the spring, while his curveball is big and slow and his changeup seems to be coming along nicely. Cecil will need to add at least thirty or forty pounds in pro ball, so you know the Padres will be stuffing him full of steaks and protein shakes, and from there they're betting big that the velocity will come along with the physicality. Cecil also shows some sneaky good spin on his stuff, giving San Diego even more to work with. This is about as "sleeper" as it gets.
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