2022 draftees: 27. Top school: Iowa/Ohio State (4)
2022 preseason writeup (published 9/24/2021)
Top 2022 draftees:
2-53, Padres: RHP Adam Mazur (Iowa)
CBB-69, A's: OF Clark Elliott (Michigan)
4-132, Brewers: C Matt Wood (Penn State)
5-154, A's: RHP Jack Perkins (Indiana)
6-188, Blue Jays: RHP TJ Brock (Ohio State)
7-218, Blue Jays: 1B Peyton Williams (Iowa)
8-227, Orioles: RHP Cameron Weston (Michigan)
The Power Five is a football term, with the Big East in basketball showing they might have a Power Six over there and the Big Ten in baseball showing us it may be more of a Power Four over here. In baseball, they haven't had a top fifty pick since Minnesota's Max Meyer and Ohio State's Dillon Dingler went third and 38th overall, respectively, in 2020. Last season, no school had more than four players drafted, whereas every team in the SEC except Texas A&M (3) reached that total. However, things are looking up for baseball in the B1G. At least a half dozen players are within striking distance of the top two rounds right now, whereas only one went in that range last year, and a couple could even go in the first round. Meanwhile, the conference is a few years away from welcoming UCLA and USC, the former of which is one of the premier programs in all of college baseball. And with conference realignment raging out of control as it is, more could follow. It's looking like it could be a big year for Maryland, who leads the conference with three names on the top ten list below (including the top prospect in the conference) and has begun to turn into one of the premier programs in the Big Ten.
1. SS Matt Shaw, Maryland.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'11", 185 lbs. Born 11/6/2001. Hometown: Brimfield, MA.
2022: 22 HR, .290/.381/.604, 12 SB, 46/34 K/BB in 60 games.
Matt Shaw has done nothing but hit since arriving in College Park. He slashed .332/.408/.543 as a freshman then more than tripled his home run output to 22 as a sophomore, good for second in the conference behind only his teammate Chris Alleyne's 24. After that, he further boosted his stock in the Cape Cod League, where he slashed .348/.434/.571 with six home runs in 44 games, planting himself firmly in first round consideration. Shaw lacks a carrying tool, but he can impact the game in a wide variety of ways. Hitting from a closed off stance much like Giancarlo Stanton (except that he's seven inches shorter), he's very good at getting his arms extended and using the whole field, showing above average power to all fields. He takes good at bats and has run just a 16.2% strikeout rate during his career at Maryland, then despite an elevated 22.2% rate on the Cape, he was able to work around that and do plenty of damage against the best arms in the country. An above average runner as well, he's aggressive on the basepaths and uses his speed well, which should also give him a shot to stick at shortstop going forward so long as he doesn't slow down with age. Standing just 5'11", he's not going to wow you with long home runs, highlight reel plays, or .400+ on-base percentages, but he'll get the job done on both sides of the ball, using the whole field as a hitter and showing some versatility with the glove. At peak, he could hit 15-20 home runs a year with solid on-base percentages while potentially holding down an everyday shortstop role, making for a Dansby Swanson-like profile if the glove holds up.
2. SS Mitch Jebb, Michigan State.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 185 lbs. Born 5/13/2002. Hometown: Saginaw, MI.
2022: 6 HR, .356/.448/.511, 20 SB, 16/38 K/BB in 54 games.
Now this, this is a fun profile. After not making much impact as a freshman, he broke out with a huge 2022 in which he had more stolen bases (20) than strikeouts (16), certainly not something we see often these days. He followed that up with a fantastic run through the Cape Cod League, matching Matt Shaw almost step for step by slashing .337/.411/.459 with another 27 stolen bases in 44 games, though his 30 strikeouts were just above that. Prospects Live hit the nail on the head when they described Jebb as a "Japanese-style slap hitter," because the resemblance between Jebb's game and his East Asian counterparts is uncanny. The central Michigan native is a very slim guy at 6'1", working from a crouched setup in which he slowly rocks back and then forwards before flinging the barrel at the ball with an exaggerated finish. The result is exceptional bat control that led to his elite 6.1% strikeout rate at Michigan State last year, followed by a still very solid 15.2% on the Cape. He finds holes, hits good pitching, and sprays the ball around the field with the best of them, then uses his plus speed to make the most of his balls in play. He will never be a home run threat, though he can swipe one out to the pull side if you're not careful, again due to his elite ability to find the barrel. Defensively, he may be a bit stretched at shortstop, but he could fit well at second base and has a high floor as a utility infielder that gets on base. Jebb is also on the younger side for the class, only turning 21 two months before the draft, giving him a little extra time to fill out and possibly find more of a power stroke.
3. OF Ryan Lasko, Rutgers.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 6/24/2002. Hometown: Jackson, NJ.
2022: 16 HR, .349/.431/.643, 13 SB, 43/30 K/BB in 58 games.
Rutgers' 44 wins last year established a new program record, and a large amount of their success was owed to first team all-Big Ten outfielder Ryan Lasko. He has his strengths and weaknesses, but overall he does a lot well. His whippy right handed swing and strong six foot frame give him above average power that he can spread out to all fields, and he handled Big Ten pitching extremely well with just a 14.2% strikeout rate to go along with his loud slash line. While he crushes average pitching, there are questions as to his ability to continue to perform with wood bats and against better competition, as he slashed just .257/.329/.316 on the Cape and struck out 23.7% of the time as the jump in competition forced him out of his approach a little bit. Proponents will point to his age, as he's young for his class and won't turn 21 until shortly before the draft, and also the fact that he did start swinging the bat better late in the Cape season, including a .348/.348/.522 run through the playoffs. Lasko is not just a bat, though. The central Jersey native is also an above average defender in center field, where he should stick in the long run and take some pressure off his right handed bat. He's a strong athlete overall that could make a great fourth outfielder, and if the bat adjusts to better competition like it looks like it's capable of, he could be a starting center fielder that hits 15-20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages and good defense.
4. RHP Ty Langenberg, Iowa.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 190 lbs. Born 12/8/2001. Hometown: Urbandale, IA.
2022: 7-2, 3.71 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 74/23 K/BB in 63 innings.
Ty Langenberg was a seldom-used reliever as a freshman in 2021, then took a step forward to become Iowa's Sunday starter in 2022 with solid results. After a strong run through the Cape Cod League (4.13 ERA, 36/6 K/BB in 24 IP), he looks poised to take another step forward of equal magnitude. The top pitching prospect in the conference, Langenberg sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can comfortably run it up to around 95, getting some life on the pitch that hasn't quite found its identity yet. His slider doesn't always have consistent shape, sometimes showing downer action but playing better as a sweeper and flashing above average in the latter shape. Lastly, he rounds his arsenal out with a plus changeup that misses a ton of bats, giving him the best three pitch arsenal in the Big Ten. Iowa is one of the more data-driven programs in the country, so he's in the right place for it all to come together for his junior season. Beyond the stuff, the 6'2" righty shows an athletic, repeatable delivery that helps him control the strike zone, running a solid 8.2% walk rate at Iowa last year before dropping to 5.9% on the Cape. In 2023, he'll look to miss more bats with his fastball and establish himself as a true mid-rotation option, as his great run through the Cape came as a reliever that averaged fewer than two innings per appearance.
5. C Luke Shliger, Maryland.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 5'9", 180 lbs. Born 9/25/2001. Hometown: Danbury, CT.
2022: 12 HR, .353/.495/.602, 14 SB, 42/54 K/BB in 62 games.
Matt Shaw isn't the only sub-six footer in Maryland's lineup projected to go in the first couple of rounds. Luke Shliger was a light hitting backup in his freshman year in 2021, but busted out for a huge sophomore season in which he led the Big Ten in on-base percentage and his 1.097 OPS comfortably topped Shaw's .985. Though his power didn't really show up, he kept getting on base at an elite clip on the Cape, where he slashed .266/.404/.291 in 28 games. If there is a bat in the conference that is advanced enough to make the jump to pro ball, it's his. The western Connecticut native rarely chases, taking extremely professional at bats that led to walk rates above 16% both at Maryland and on the Cape, the latter of which you rarely see. He recognizes offspeed stuff and is unfazed by velocity, which also helps him get his barrel to the ball with great consistency. Combine that pitch selection and barrel accuracy with a natural uppercut that maximizes his power, and he can really ambush you. The problem comes when you account for his lack of actual raw power, as he stands just 5'9" with an average build. While the ambush power works great with metal bats, it didn't show up on the Cape with wood and there are questions over how much will come in pro ball. He's limited at that size, but if he can get on a pro conditioning program and bulk up a little, his swing and approach are geared to get the most out of it. Defensively, Shliger is a good athlete with the agility to stick behind the plate, though the finer aspects of his game do need some work and he'll need to prove he is physical enough to handle a full season back there. It's probably a backup catcher/utility man profile that can play some corner outfield and get on base, with a chance for more if he bulks up in the right program and unlocks more offensive impact.
6. 3B Max Anderson, Nebraska.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 195 lbs. Born 2/28/2002. Hometown: Omaha, NE.
2022: 10 HR, .299/.349/.513, 6 SB, 26/14 K/BB in 53 games.
With glasses and an average build, Max Anderson doesn't look like a top prospect. However, between a .314/.366/.507 career line at Nebraska and a long track record of success in the Cape Cod League, it's hard to knock the performance. He played on the Cape in both 2021 and 2022 and combined to slash .297/.356/.405 in 78 games, showing no issues with the jump in competition from the Big Ten either after his freshman or sophomore campaigns. Anderson is an aggressive hitter that would rather chase a borderline pitch than get caught looking at a quality strike, leading to a 6.8% career walk rate at Nebraska, but his strong bat to ball skills really limit the swing and miss so he still rarely strikes out with an 11.7% career rate. It evens out to an average hit tool that could become above average if he gets a little more selective, and he's already moving in that direction having bumped his walk rate from 6.0% his first year on the Cape to 10.7% this past summer. The Omaha native also shows average power stemming from his ability to find the barrel consistently, making for a very well-rounded offensive profile with an accurate and potent barrel. He's going to want that bat to play up, because he's an average athlete that will have to work hard to stay at third base without the explosive range or arm strength you get from many converted shortstops that end up there. If he's forced over to first base or a corner outfield spot, the power will really have to come around (and he'll have to find a way to cut down on the chases against higher quality offspeed stuff) if he wants to play every day. Otherwise, it's a bench/platoon bat profile.
7. LHP Jason Savacool, Maryland.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 210 lbs. Born 5/21/2002. Hometown: Baldwinsville, NY.
2022: 8-3, 2.93 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 123/28 K/BB in 107.2 innings.
One of the top prospects to reach campus from the 2020 high school class, Jason Savacool jumped straight into the Maryland weekend rotation as a freshman then took a step forward in 2022, even if his stuff remains largely the same as high school. He actually led the Big Ten in strikeouts by a wide margin this past season and also finished atop the conference in innings pitched, giving the Terrapins an absolute horse at the top of their rotation heading into 2023. Savacool does not have much of a fastball, sitting around 90 and topping out around 92 most days with average movement, and it likely won't miss many bats at the next level. He adds an above average slider that acts as his best pitch, also changing pace with a distinct curveball and a solid changeup. He's successful, though, because of his pitchability. The 6'1" righty goes right after hitters with above average command, hiding the ball very well behind his big frame and mixing his pitches effectively to keep hitters off balance. That helped his stuff play up to a 28.5% strikeout rate last year, but to this point it's hard to see him finding much success beyond a #5 starter role in pro ball unless he sees an uptick in velocity. However, if he can get into the low 90's more consistently and perhaps touch 94-95 at peak, suddenly it becomes a mid-rotation starter outlook that can stick in a big league rotation for a long time, even if he doesn't have standout life on his stuff. To top it off, he is younger for the class with a May birthday and has that much more time to find that velocity bump.
8. RHP George Klassen, Minnesota.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 170 lbs. Born 1/26/2002. Hometown: Port Washington, WI.
2022: 0-2, 14.09 ERA, 2.61 WHIP, 8/14 K/BB in 7.2 innings.
Now this is a profile you don't see every day, as George Klassen exists on the opposite end of the spectrum from Jason Savacool. He missed his freshman season with Tommy John surgery, then stumbled to 7.2 extremely ineffective innings in 2022 as he walked or hit 42% of the hitters he faced. You read that correctly – that's fourteen walks and seven hit batsmen in 7.2 innings. He did go to the Northwoods League this summer and showed better with a 5.16 ERA and a 43/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings (good for a much better 12.4% walk rate), but the track record remains sparse. As you may have guessed, though, the stuff is off the charts. Klassen sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and has run it as high as 102, coming in with explosive life that puts it up there with fellow Golden Gopher righty Max Meyer for the best heater the conference has ever seen, at least if you ignore command. Klassen also adds a hard slider that can really fool hitters cheating on the heat, making for a deadly two pitch mix if he can stay ahead in the count. To this point, though, that hasn't been the case. The 6'2" righty has a very long arm path with a violent head whack that makes it extremely difficult to repeat his release point, giving him bottom of the scale command on his worst days and still well below average on his best. As he gets further from that surgery, he'll hope to smooth out the delivery a little bit and it looks like he has begun to, but it's a pure relief look unless something drastic changes. If he can get to even 40 grade command, though, that fastball/slider combination could become diabolical out of the bullpen and he could be on his way to a high leverage relief role. I'm not confident he can make that happen, but the stuff is so loud that once the third round or so rolls around, it might be time to start thinking about rolling the dice.
9. OF Keaton Anthony, Iowa.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 210 lbs. Born 6/24/2001. Hometown: Hoschton, GA.
2022: 14 HR, .361/.455/.678, 0 SB, 40/28 K/BB in 53 games.
Keaton Anthony got just one at bat as a freshman, but earned an every day role as a sophomore and put up a huge breakout season that earned him day two draft interest as an eligible sophomore. Instead he'll return to Iowa City to build off that big season, because with a right-right corner outfield profile, the offensive bar is high. Anthony has an advanced bat, using the whole field effectively with above average power that plays to all fields, helping him put up 36 extra base hits in 53 games last season. Easily the biggest man on this list at 6'4", 210 pounds, he's physically developed and that power comes very naturally. He also makes plenty of contact at the plate, running solid strikeout (16.4%) and walk (11.5%) rates with the ability to do damage all over the zone. If he handles the step up in competition from the Big Ten to pro ball, he has a chance at 55 hit, 55 power, but that's obviously a big if. Anthony's defensive profile doesn't do him any favors, as he is a below average runner and lacks the big arm you often see from this kind of profile. A right fielder for now, he'll probably move to left field in pro ball and may end up at first base. He's also older for the class having been eligible last year, exactly one year to the day older than the #3 man on this list, Ryan Lasko. Still, it might be the most complete bat in the conference outside of Matt Shaw, with a chance at 20+ home runs and solid on-base percentages at his ceiling and a more median outcome of a platoon bat well within reach.
10. SS Brice Matthews, Nebraska.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 175 lbs. Born 3/16/2002. Hometown: Humble, TX.
2022: 7 HR, .261/.379/.446, 12 SB, 56/25 K/BB in 45 games.
Brice Matthews is one of those multi-sport athletes that you are just waiting to see put it together. He has posted solid numbers so far at Nebraska (.266/.380/.453 over two years) but is yet to break out, though he did take a step forward against solid competition in the Northwoods League over the summer (.278/.452/.487) with improved strikeout and walk rates. Matthews is sort of the opposite of his teammate, Max Anderson, at the plate, with a very patient approach that helps him rack up the walks but can also get him behind in the count if he's not careful. He's still working on that pure bat to ball ability and when he falls into those 2-2, 3-2 counts in pro ball, he may have a hard time finishing them off. He does have good feel for the barrel and usually hits it hard when he hits it, so finding the right balance in his approach should eventually help him take off into an impact hitter. As he gets a little stronger, he could have above average power in time to go with all those walks. Unlike Keaton Anthony, Matthews' glove boosts his profile. He's an above average runner with enough range and arm strength to stick at shortstop so long as he cleans up some of the finer aspects of his game and doesn't slow down with age. If a better defender pushes him to the hot corner, he'll still provide plenty of value with his glove. It's a very solid all-around profile from a good athlete looking for a breakout year, and if it comes, he could go in the top couple of rounds. For now, he fits more in the middle of day two.
No comments:
Post a Comment