Another year, another cycle of Hall of Fame discourse that will range anywhere from fascinating to toxic. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are unfortunately gone from the ballot, but the steroid discourse is far from over with names like Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, and others still present. For my full thoughts on cheaters and the Hall of Fame, click here, but the quick summary is that I think almost all of them should get in.
My ballot this year is a bit sparse. Last year, I voted for the full ten players, but this year I'm down to six after David Ortiz earned induction, Bonds, Clemens, and Curt Schilling ran out of eligibility, and Bobby Abreu dropped off my ballot. No newcomers made their way on, but A-Rod is an addition from last year after the one year steroid penalty I applied. Below, let's first walk through the players I would vote for on my hypothetical ballot, then let's walk through the ones that I wouldn't vote for and why that is. As a reminder, players need 75% of the vote to get into the Hall of Fame.
YES VOTES
3B Alex Rodriguez (1994-2016)
Regular Season: 696 HR, .295/.380/.550, 329 SB, 141 wRC+, 113.7 fWAR in 2784 games.
Postseason: 13 HR, .259/.365/.457, 8 SB, 116 wRC+ in 75 games.
Last year, I had Alex Rodriguez wait in "time out" because I didn't want to (hypothetically) make a cheater a first ballot Hall of Famer. Now that we're past that, though, it's time to let A-Rod into the Hall. You can't argue with the results. Nearly 700 home runs, over 300 stolen bases, over 500 doubles, and an on-base percentage approaching .400 while playing stellar defense makes for an inner-circle resume. His 113.7 fWAR ranks thirteenth all time, ahead of names like Mickey Mantle (112.3), Mike Schmidt (106.5), and Rickey Henderson (106.3). But of course, that's not the point. Not only did Alex Rodriguez cheat, he did so at a time when it was clearly against the rules and he served a yearlong suspension in 2014. So he didn't just cheat, he is a cheater. That said, as I mentioned in my thoughts on cheaters and the Hall of Fame, so are dozens of players already enshrined. There is no purity to preserve. Put him in, and do the same with Bonds and Clemens while we're at it.
LHP Billy Wagner (1995-2010)
Regular Season: 2.31 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 1196/300 K/BB in 903 innings.
Postseason: 10.03 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 1.97 WHIP, 13/2 K/BB in 11.2 innings.
Okay, Billy Wagner has been on the ballot for long enough. He finally crossed the 50% threshold last year in his seventh attempt, and now at number eight I'm starting to lose patience. Left handed relievers are obviously extremely important, given that every team always ensures that they have one in the bullpen, yet there is not a single one in the Hall of Fame. Billy Wagner isn't just the best lefty reliever of all time – it's not even close. There aren't many cumulative stats available for relievers (no, I don't care about saves), but Wagner leads all lefty relievers in strikeouts (1196, ahead of Jesse Orosco's 1169), fWAR (24.0, ahead of Aroldis Chapman's 20.1), RE24 (198.2, ahead of Orosco's 154.5), and WPA (28.4, ahead of Chapman's 19.9), four stats I think are very good measures of long term success. And aside from strikeouts, none of these are even close, with a 19% lead in fWAR, a 28% lead in RE24, and a massive 43% lead in WPA. Take handedness out of the question, and he still stacks up extremely well to the six true relievers in the Hall of Fame right now. Mariano Rivera is head and shoulders above everybody, but looking at the others – Trevor Hoffman, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Lee Smith, and Bruce Sutter – Wagner has a better ERA, FIP, WHIP, RE24, and strikeout rate than all of them. 903 innings isn't a huge number, but it's big enough and he was so dominant in those 903 innings that the case is clear. The lone blemish on his resume is a rough, small sample postseason line, but that's hardly enough to keep him out. Wagner should have been in the Hall of Fame years ago and I hope 2023 is finally the year.
OF Andruw Jones (1996-2012)
Regular Season: 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.0 fWAR in 2196 games.
Postseason: 10 HR, .273/.363/.433, 5 SB, 108 wRC+ in 76 games.
The more time goes by, the more clear-cut Andruw Jones' case looks. We are talking about a player in the conversation for the greatest defensive outfielder of all time, and that alone at least puts him in the conversation. Throw in that he hit 434 home runs, including 25+ in ten straight seasons, and had four different seasons in which he posted an on-base percentage above .360. Yeah, the end of his career was pretty abysmal, as he slashed just .214/.314/.420 and put just just 6.0 fWAR in 589 games from his age-30 season onwards. But what he had done before that was nothing short of tremendous. From 1998-2006, a stretch of nine seasons, he slashed .270/.347/.513 with 319 home runs and 110 stolen bases, which together with his defense was enough to help him rack up the third most fWAR in all of MLB behind only Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. And that's no fluke – that's nearly a decade sitting in the top three in the sport. That's a Hall of Fame-caliber prime by any measure, and even with the drop off at the end, it's hard to argue with a guy who hit 434 home runs on his way to being an 11% better than league average hitter, appeared in over 2000 games, and showed well in the postseason, all while playing some of the best outfield defense ever seen. That's pretty clear to me.
3B Scott Rolen (1996-2012)
Regular Season: 316 HR, .281/.364/.490, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 69.9 fWAR in 2038 games.
Postseason: 5 HR, .220/.302/.376, 0 SB, 78 wRC+ in 39 games.
Many people have taken up Scott Rolen as their "guy" in this cycle, and more power to them. Personally, I see him more as a guy I'd like to see get in rather than the one I'm going to stump the hardest for (that would be Wagner and Jones), but I'm still on Team Rolen. Back when he was playing, I don't think many people thought they were watching a future Hall of Famer (though his 34 HR, .314/.409/.598, 9.0 fWAR 2004 season was a Hall of Fame-caliber season), but when you zoom the camera out, the profile looks better and better. Already a high level defender, he went eight straight seasons from 1997-2004 with at least a 121 wRC+, meaning at any point in that stretch he was no less than 21% better than league average with the bat. During that time, he had the third most fWAR in baseball behind only Bonds and A-Rod, though unlike Jones he didn't have that huge drop off at the end of his career. So we have a high level defender, a well above average bat, a consistent bat that held his production over a long period of time (enough to rack up 300+ home runs, 500+ doubles, and 100+ stolen bases if you like counting stats), and best of all for some old school voters, a guy who did it clean. Yeah, he never really looked like a Hall of Famer outside that huge 2004 season, but in aggregate, I think he was.
OF Manny Ramirez (1993-2011)
Regular Season: 555 HR, .312/.411/.585, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR in 2302 games.
Postseason: 29 HR, .285/.394/.544, 1 SB, 140 wRC+ in 111 games.
Manny Ramirez presents a very interesting case. Like Alex Rodriguez, he cheated, he got caught, and he cheated at a time when it was clearly against the rules. So now I have to apply that penalty to his numbers, which on their own are pretty comfortably up to Hall of Fame standards. I noted that borderline players who were caught or at least have a consensus around them using PED's would not make my ballot, but because Ramirez is fairly comfortably above that threshold, he then becomes a borderline case after the PED penalty has already been factored in. Still, even with the PED's, it's hard to go ahead a guy that finished well above 500 home runs and nearly reached a .300/.400/.600 career line in over 2300 games. Only five hitters ever can match all three legs of Manny's slash line – Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, and Hank Greenberg. None of those players appeared in a game after 1960, and among that group, only Ruth out-homered Ramirez. He is a top-25 hitter of all time by wRC+, a feat made more impressive by the fact that offense was at an all time high when he played, and he reached a 140 or better wRC+ fifteen times in a sixteen year stretch from 1995-2010. So for a decade and a half, he was no less than an elite hitter at virtually any time. Throw in the fact that he is the all time postseason home run leader at 29, and I feel comfortable getting over the PED penalty and the poor defense.
OF Gary Sheffield (1988-2009)
Regular Season: 509 HR, .292/.393/.514, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR in 2576 games.
Postseason: 6 HR, .248/.401/.398, 1 SB, 120 wRC+ in 44 games.
Gary Sheffield is a very borderline case, and I won't die on this hill. Given that he likely used PED's, he would seem to fit the bill as a player with a borderline case who was disqualified because without those PED's, he probably doesn't put up a HoF resume. But with that said, his PED usage is not as clear-cut as guys like Bonds, Clemens, A-Rod, or Manny Ramirez, and I've mentioned that I tend to look for at least widespread consensus if not full on proof. I would flip my vote to "no" if proof came out, but to this point I don't find "probably" to be a strong enough adverb to apply that penalty. So let's take his case for what he did on the field. Sheffield clubbed over 500 home runs and over a thousand extra base hits in total while holding a slash line that nearly reached the .300/.400/.500 threshold despite a very long, 22 year career. Finishing with a career 141 wRC+, he had three qualified seasons in which he was up over 170 (an elite number) and six in which he was up over 150. And unlike many big power hitters, he rarely struck out, topping out at a measly 83 punch outs in 2004 and 2008. So he has the counting stats and he certainly looked the part of a Hall of Famer for a few different sustained periods in his career, and for me that's just enough even if he wasn't a great defender. The numbers don't look quite as great coming after Manny Ramirez, but it's important to note that Manny was playing with the PED penalty while Sheffield is not.
NO VOTES
OF Bobby Abreu (1996-2014)
Regular Season: 288 HR, .291/.395/.475, 400 SB, 129 wRC+, 59.8 fWAR in 2425 games.
Postseason: 1 HR, .284/.392/.418, 2 SB, 111 wRC+ in 76 games.
Last year, I voted yes on Bobby Abreu, but I mentioned that I was right on the fence and leaned 51-49 towards my yes vote. This year, I'm still extremely on the fence but I'm leaning 51-49 towards a no vote. It's simply the most borderline case I've encountered so far. Bobby Abreu had a great career, clubbing nearly 300 home runs and nearly 600 doubles while getting on base at a nearly .400 clip and stealing 400 bases. From 1998-2006, he posted an OBP above .400 eight times in nine seasons, he hit at least fifteen home runs in thirteen straight seasons from 1998-2010, clubbing at least 30 doubles in eleven of those, and stole at least nineteen bases in fourteen straight seasons from 1998-2011. He was an on-base machine, could hit for some power, and was an extremely smart baserunner that maximized his speed on the base paths. Add in that he played in over 150 games in thirteen straight seasons from 1998-2010, and he was a model of consistency that contributed to the Phillies, Yankees, and Angels offenses in a wide variety of ways. It's a rock-solid offensive profile, if not the most flashy, but his glove doesn't do him any favors. With an average glove, I think I would vote Abreu in. But he was a net-negative in the field, especially in the second half of his career, so the pressure is on the bat. And it was very, very good. But was it truly great? I think it was close, but I do lean towards a small Hall philosophy and ultimately Bobby Abreu falls victim to that this year. Maybe he'll be back on my ballot next year, we'll see.
1B Todd Helton (1997-2013)
Regular Season: 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 54.9 fWAR in 2247 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .211/.303/.281, 0 SB, 48 wRC+ in 15 games.
Todd Helton is very, very close, but my small Hall mindset is going to keep him out for now. As a first baseman playing his home games at Coors Field, the offensive bar is going to be incredibly high to reach the Hall of Fame, and during his peak from 1999-2005, he did just that by slashing .341/.442/.621 with 241 home runs in 1092 games. Over that seven year stretch, it was good for the fourth most fWAR in baseball behind Bonds, A-Rod, and Andruw Jones. But unfortunately, the decline was pretty steep; from 2006-2013, he slashed .289/.388/.448 with 98 home runs in 968 games. Even for a first baseman at Coors Field, holding an on-base percentage near .400 through your post-prime years is impressive, and it's almost enough to get him into the Hall for me. Jones followed a similar career arc and I see him as a clear-cut Hall of Famer, but it's important to note that Jones' prime lasted nine years while Helton's lasted seven, so it was almost 30% longer. It's also not his fault that he only got to play in fifteen postseason games, but Helton did not take advantage of that small sample opportunity so there's no addition to the resume there. In the end, we have to decide if seven years of elite hitting is enough by itself to warrant a Hall of Fame vote – in my opinion as someone with a small Hall mindset, that's a no.
LHP Andy Pettitte (1995-2013)
Regular Season: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB in 3316 innings.
Postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 183/76 K/BB in 276.2 innings.
The phrase "Hall of Very Good" gets thrown around often, and I think Andy Pettitte can be a prime example of what that looks like. The closer you look at his resume, the better it looks, with a very long career that provided a tremendous amount of value to the Yankees and the Astros. He was a true workhorse that topped 200 innings ten different times and 185 innings thirteen different times, and for the most part he kept his ERA in the 3.50 to 4.30 range most years despite pitching in hitter-friendly parks in the Steroid Era. His postseason resume is impressive, too, as his numbers did not dip at all and he earned the 2001 ALCS MVP Award. Fans can underestimate the value of a strong #2 or #3 starter, and Pettitte provided that for nearly two decades, even popping for ace-like seasons in 1997 and 2005. There is a place in the Hall for consistency and longevity, but ultimately I see it as a place for the all time greats, not just those who were able to string together enough cumulative value to make it. For as great as he was, aside from those two great seasons I don't think opposing teams looked at the lineup card in the morning and thought "uh oh, Andy Pettitte is pitching." Obviously nobody looked forward to facing him, and he still provided a very tough matchup, but the point stands. Andy Pettitte was very, very good for a very long time, but I just don't see a Hall of Famer.
2B Jeff Kent (1992-2008)
Regular Season: 377 HR, .290/.356/.500, 94 SB, 123 wRC+, 56.0 fWAR in 2298 games.
Postseason: 9 HR, .276/.340/.500, 1 SB, 119 wRC+ in 49 games.
It's Jeff Kent's last year on the ballot, and he's very close to a Hall of Famer. He brings a great combination of longevity and consistent, high level performance, having posted eight consecutive 20 HR/30 double seasons, ten consecutive seasons with a wRC+ of 120 or higher (and sixteen straight at league average or better), and nine consecutive seasons with at least 3.3 fWAR. In 2000, he popped for a tremendous season, slashing .334/.424/.596 with 33 home runs and 7.4 fWAR. And given that he played in over 100 games in all seventeen seasons of his career, he was able to rack up solid counting stats with nearly 400 home runs, well over 500 doubles, and nearly 2500 hits in all. He wasn't a standout defender, but he was certainly solid over there at second base. Throw in good postseason performance with a .276/.340/.500 line over 49 games, and it's a well rounded profile. Ultimately though, it feels just a little light. For all his consistency and longevity, he only popped for a 140 or better wRC+ twice, only reached 5.0 fWAR twice, only once hit more than 33 home runs in a season, and only once posted an on-base percentage above .385. So similar to Andy Pettitte, he was very good for a very long time, but there's no peak here that really wows you beyond his one great season in 2000 and another very good one in 2002. I feel better comparing Jeff Kent to the great second basemen of the era, like Craig Biggio, Roberto Alomar, and Chase Utley, than I do to the greats of all time.
LHP Mark Buehrle (2000-2015)
Regular Season: 214-160, 3.81 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 1870/734 K/BB in 3283.1 innings.
Postseason: 2-1, 4.11 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 16/1 K/BB in 30.2 innings.
Mark Buehrle is closer than you'd think, but ultimately not quite a Hall of Famer. He was a model of consistency, going fifteen straight seasons with at least 198.2 innings pitched while only once allowing his ERA to rise above 4.28 or his FIP above 4.46. He generated a lot of weak contact, took care of some of it himself with a standout glove, and gave the White Sox and later Marlins and Blue Jays a rock near the top of their rotations. However, he also spent much of his career pitching in a weaker AL Central and he was never particularly dominant, save for perhaps his 2005 season (3.12 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 149/40 K/BB) and of course his 2007 no-hitter and 2009 perfect game. It's hard to get into the Hall based on consistent solid performance rather than periods of true standout performance, and if you were going to give Buehrle a shot, you probably would have wanted to see him throw more than sixteen seasons.
SS Omar Vizquel (1989-2012)
Regular Season: 80 HR, .272/.336/.352, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.5 fWAR in 2968 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .250/.327/.316, 23 SB, 70 wRC+ in 57 games.
I wasn't a big Omar Vizquel fan before the abuse/sexual assault allegations came out against him, and while I tend not to be concerned about a player's off field behavior, the allegations are pretty serious. Still, I don't need those to know that he's not a Hall of Famer. I do think there is a place in the Hall for the game's elite defenders, but Ozzie Smith (90 wRC+) and Andruw Jones (111 wRC+) are not in the same tier as Vizquel (83 wRC+). Jones clubbed 434 home runs and was a well-above league average hitter for most of his career, while Smith was 10% below league average but did pop for seven seasons in which he was above league average. Vizquel, meanwhile, was 17% below league average for his career and only twice in his 24 seasons could be considered above league average by wRC+ (115 in 1999, 102 in 2002). In an era when offense was at an all time high, Vizquel was a black hole in those Mariners, Indians, and Giants offenses that hit for no power and didn't even get on base at a terribly high clip. He finished with a .336 on-base percentage for his career and never reached .400 in any single season. The counting stats are good – nearly 3000 hits, over 450 doubles, and over 400 stolen bases – but they're not enough to make up for the lack of impact at the plate even with the special glove.
OF Carlos Beltran (1998-2017)
Regular Season: 435 HR, .279/.350/.486, 312 SB, 118 wRC+, 67.8 fWAR in 2586 games.
Postseason: 16 HR, .307/.412/.609, 11 SB, 169 wRC+ in 65 games.
Because he cheated pretty egregiously with the Astros in 2017, Carlos Beltran will get his automatic one year "time out" from my ballot. Going forward, I'm open to voting for him – over 400 home runs, over 1000 extra base hits, over 300 stolen bases, seven different seasons more than 5.0 fWAR, and elite postseason performance certainly warrant strong consideration. But I'll leave deeper thought on that for next year.
RHP Francisco Rodriguez (2002-2017)
Regular Season: 2.86 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 1142/389 K/BB in 976 innings.
Postseason: 2.95 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.36 WHIP, 49/18 K/BB in 36.2 innings.
The bar for relievers to get into the Hall of Fame is high, and it should be. The fact that Billy Wagner isn't in proves that, and I'm all in on Wagner's case. Francisco Rodriguez, I believe, is close to having a Hall of Fame case, but it's not quite enough. Among relievers, he's twentieth all time in fWAR, ninth in RE24, and thirteenth in WPA. For a span of fourteen years from 2003-2016, he was more often than not among the best closers in the league, and that's certainly a loud statement. But inconsistent command kept him from truly joining the game's elite closers for the most part, and I don't think he's in the same tier as Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner (and of course nobody is in Mariano Rivera's tier). I think he's closer to Joe Nathan, who narrowly missed my ballot last year but failed to receive the necessary 5% to get another shot. I do hope K-Rod gets the 5% so we can give him a few looks, but I'll ultimately be okay if Rivera, Hoffman, and hopefully eventually Wagner are the only relievers from that era to make the Hall.
RHP Jered Weaver (2006-2017)
Regular Season: 150-98, 3.63 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 1621/551 K/BB in 2067.1 innings.
Postseason: 2-1, 2.60 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 0.98 WHIP, 28/12 K/BB in 27.2 innings.
Jered Weaver almost had it. Over the first nine seasons of his career, and at the time of his 32nd birthday, he was 131-69 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, which is probably a Hall of Fame pace. A reasonable decline in his thirties would have given him a case, but unfortunately, his velocity disappeared and he would pitch just three more seasons, going 19-29 with a 5.15 ERA and finding himself out of baseball by his 35th birthday. I don't consider him to be close to the Hall, but I do want to give credit where it's due given how good he was over the first nine seasons of his career.
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