The Pirates made a huge splash by drafting potential superstar Termarr Johnson fourth overall, then fell back onto a very pitching-heavy strategy that included 15.5 pitchers (Jack Brannigan is a two-way player) over their remaining 20 picks. They targeted a wide variety, from power armed, likely relievers like Brannigan, J.P. Massey, and Cy Nielson to more polished starter types like Thomas Harrington, Hunter Barco, and Michael Kennedy. Athleticism was a big theme here for many.
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1-4: SS Termarr Johnson, Mays HS [GA]. My rank: #3.
Slot value: $7.01 million. Signing bonus: $7.22 million ($213,200 above slot value).
It is very, very easy to dream on Termarr Johnson as a future superstar for the Pirates. Long one of the most famous names in the high school class, he may have been the victim of prospect fatigue this spring as the conversation moved from the top five range to more of the 4-10 range, but by giving him more than seven million dollars to sign at fourth overall, Pittsburgh clearly stayed on him. We're talking about one of the most advanced young hitters we have seen in a long time, one that could reach the majors well before he turns 21. Johnson is an extremely disciplined hitter that takes some of the most professional at bats in the class, looking right at home in the box against the top pitchers in the class. Meanwhile, he puts his barrel on virtually everything he swings at, and if you need proof, here he is barreling up a baseball in the opposite batter's box. It all amounts to a double-plus hit tool that could be 80 grade in time. He's not just a slap hitter, though. Johnson possesses very real, plus power despite standing just 5'9", generating a huge amount of torque and lift from a rotational swing and a very strong lower half and quick wrists. Together, it could amount to 30+ home runs a year with very high on-base percentages, which would be perennial All Star caliber. My only concern with the offensive profile is very, very slight, the true definition of a nitpick, but the barrel isn't in the zone for all that long because he cocks the bat a little before swinging, has a little uppercut, and possesses at ton of bat speed that has the bat here and gone in a flash. But really, everything else about his hit tool is so strong that it's virtually moot. Defensively, he's probably not quite explosive enough to stick at shortstop, but he's very smooth on the dirt and could profile as an above average second baseman that makes all of the routine plays if he doesn't slow down at all. When you're handing out $7 million-plus signing bonuses, playing a premium defensive position like catcher, shortstop, or center field is often a priority, but Johnson's bat is so strong that the Pirates or more than happy to overlook it. For an MLB comp, we can go with peak Daniel Murphy but with better defense and potentially more power if the Atlanta native reaches his ceiling. He's off to a slow start to his pro career, slashing .125/.256/.188 with a 10/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games, but he only just turned 18 in June.
CBA-36: RHP Thomas Harrington, Campbell. My rank: #44.
Slot value: $2.15 million. Signing bonus: $2.05 million ($100,300 below slot value).
Thomas Harrington was one of the higher profile risers this spring, and the Pirates will happily grab him in the competitive balance round for below slot value. Lightly recruited out of his North Carolina high school, Harrington walked onto the baseball team at Campbell just up the road from his hometown and immediately found success as a true freshman in the rotation. He took it to another level in 2022, posting a 2.54 ERA and a 111/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings and going at least six innings in every single start except for one, and he was only pulled from the one due to a lengthy rain delay. Harrington is one of the most balanced pitchers in the class with very few weaknesses. His fastball has steadily ticked up and now sits in the low 90's with a peak around 96, and he follows it up with a deep arsenal. His slider, curveball, and changeup are all consistently at least average, often above average and occasionally plus, and together they helped him strike out 30% of his opponents. The 6'2" righty's best attribute is his plus command, which helps him execute all of those average to above average pitches with precision and rarely ever hurt himself with walks. It's a very clear starting pitching profile that should move quickly through the minors, and while he may not be an ace, he has a very good chance to be a #3. He's durable, he only turned 21 shortly before the draft, and it's very hard to find any holes in his game.
2-44: LHP Hunter Barco, Florida. My rank: #74.
Slot value: $1.78 million. Signing bonus: $1.53 million ($251,100 below slot value).
While few scouts knew Thomas Harrington's name out of high school, Hunter Barco was one of the most famous prospects in his high school class, earning even some first round interest. He made it to campus at Florida, had a couple of very good but unspectacular seasons as an underclassman, then looked like he was breaking out with a 2.50 ERA and a 69/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.1 innings this spring. Unfortunately, he left a mid April start against Vanderbilt with an elbow injury and wound up succumbing to Tommy John surgery, so we won't see him pitch until mid 2023. Still, there is plenty to like. Barco has had inconsistent fastball velocity throughout his amateur career, touching 96-97 on some days and sitting around 90 on others, coming from a lower slot albeit with average life. His plus, sweeping slider is his best pitch, missing a ton of bats as it dives across the plate. He also throws an above average split change to round out his arsenal, giving him a very solid three pitch mix when the fastball velocity is there. The Jacksonville native is aggressive on the mound and pounds the strike zone, leading to low walk rates, though his in-zone command can be inconsistent. He was at his best throughout throughout out 2022 and it looked like he was putting it all together until he got hurt, and all things considered, it's not the worst time to get the surgery since he obviously isn't ready to contribute to the big league club anyways. The 6'4" lefty also brings plenty of projection to the table with an ideal pitcher's frame, and as he gets stronger post-surgery, the Pirates believe he'll be touching the mid 90's much more regularly. It's a high probability #3/#4 starter profile with a floor as a very solid three pitch reliever.
3-83: 3B/RHP Jack Brannigan, Notre Dame. My rank: #184.
Slot value: $770,700. Signing bonus: $770,700.
Jack Brannigan was ranked #164 by MLB Pipeline, #168 by Baseball America, #182 by Prospects Live, and #184 on my board, so it's safe to say this is much earlier than most thought he would go. Not only that, but the Pirates drafted him as a two-way player, so this will be loads of fun to watch. Brannigan (who by the way has to have the most Notre Dame name of all time) has more experience as a hitter, but the talent is equally intriguing on both sides of the ball and I'll admit I may have been too low on him with my ranking. Starting with the bat, he had an up and down 2022 season and slashed .291/.360/.540 with 12 home runs and a 49/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, showing off big physical tools but not always the ability to tap them in games. Although he's a bit undersized at 6', 190 pounds, he's quietly one of the best athletes in the class, not just with above average speed but with his natural ability to just move well on the diamond. There is above average power in the tank due both to his strength as well as that natural athleticism and ability to channel that strength, though his swing can get swoopy leading to some swing and miss concerns. He can sometimes struggle with breaking balls and overall is just not consistent with his hit tool. This could be a case of giving up pitching and finding more rhythm in the box, where his natural ability could take over and make him a 20+ home run hitter with decent on-base percentages. Over at third base, he has a chance to be a plus defender there with an absolute cannon of a right arm and the aforementioned athleticism that touches every part of his game. On the mound, he's considerably more raw and has thrown just 23.1 innings over three years at Notre Dame, but he could throw a lot more than that with Pittsburgh. After pitching sparingly in 2020 and 2021, he took on a slightly larger role in 2022 and posted a 7.93 ERA and a 28/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.2 innings out of the bullpen. The fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and can touch triple digits at his best, with plenty of arm side run to miss barrels. He adds a rapidly improving slider that is starting to flash plus when he commands it, and he's worked to add a changeup as well. The Chicago-area native has seen his command improve from perhaps 30 grade to 40 grade, which is still comfortably below average but playable. He doesn't need good command with his stuff, just enough to get strike one and elicit chases. With long arm action and that below average command, he's almost certainly a reliever long term unless he gave up hitting right away and focused exclusively on stretching out, which I don't see happening. He hasn't pitched yet in the minors, but he is slashing .250/.366/.400 with two home runs and a 19/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Bradenton.
4-110: LHP Michael Kennedy, Troy HS [NY]. My rank: #92.
Slot value: $554,800. Signing bonus: $1 million ($445,200 above slot value).
Michael Kennedy is a very interesting prospect that you might miss if you're not watching closely, as he's had a bit less exposure up in Upstate New York and doesn't throw particularly hard. Kennedy sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 94 and occasionally dipping into the upper 80's, so he does need to add velocity. He flips in an above average, sweepy slider and shows solid feel for his changeup, giving him a good three pitch mix but not one that will stand out among pro prospects. He has a fairly stocky build at 6'1", 205 pounds that lacks projection, but he's a better athlete than you might think and moves very well on the mound. With a crossfire delivery, he gets down the mound with good extension and gets a low release height on his pitches, making them play up. Additionally, the Albany-area native pounds the strike zone with above average command and works those pitches well off each other, making for a very solid all-around product. Now in the Pirates system, it's time to focus on sharpening up his stuff and adding velocity, which I believe he'll do. Throw in that he's extremely young for the class and won't even turn 18 until after Thanksgiving, and you have a kid who could develop into a very solid #3 starter in time.
5-140: OF Tres Gonzalez, Georgia Tech. My rank: #157.
Slot value: $414,600. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($67,100 below slot value).
Tres Gonzalez brings a bit of an old school profile here, a hit-over-power type that could reach the majors quickly. After battering elite Cape Cod League pitching with a barrage of singles last summer, he did the same in the ACC this spring and slashed .339/.458/.474 with five home runs and a 27/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games. He's an extremely disciplined hitter that just looks too advanced to be playing college baseball, managing the strike zone as well as anybody in the class and doing so even against elite arms. He also has excellent bat to ball skills, which combined with that approach led to a sub-10% strikeout rate this spring, spraying line drives around the field with a loose, quick swing. Listed at 5'11", 185 pounds, he is not overly physical and does not project for much power at all, and instead will rely on posting high on-base percentages with plenty of singles, doubles, and walks. A plus runner, he'll be able to make the most of those balls he puts in the gaps. The Atlanta-area native played left field for Georgia Tech but might be able to cut it in center field at least in a part time role. That's important, because with his fringy arm, it's hard to profile in left in any role if you can't hit for power. If he does stick in center, there's an outside chance he can play every day if everything else translates up, but the most likely projection is that of a fourth outfielder that gets on base at a high clip. So far, he's slashing .333/.407/.375 with a 7/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Bradenton.
6-170: RHP Derek Diamond, Mississippi. My rank: #187.
Slot value: $311,600. Signing bonus: $311,600.
Derek Diamond has been an interesting prospect throughout his time at Ole Miss, but it's hard to know what to make of him. He jumped into the Rebels' rotation right away as a true freshman in 2020 and showed well, then battled through an up and down 2021 season to still make 20 appearances (14 starts) and throw 75.1 innings. 2022 was more down than up, as he posted a 6.89 ERA and a 57/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings, mostly as a starter, but barely pitched in the postseason as manager Mike Bianco chose to put his faith in more consistent arms. Just as it was looking like he would fall out of day two consideration, he showed very well in pre-draft bullpens and got teams interested again. Diamond can touch 97 with riding action on his fastball but, like Hunter Barco, doesn't always hold that velocity and can dip into the upper 80's. His slider and changeup both flash above average, but again, are inconsistent. The 6'2" righty stands out best for his athleticism on the mound, enabling him to repeat his delivery extremely well and show consistently above average command, which is why he's managed to stick as a starter all this time. When the fastball is around 90 and the secondaries aren't biting, no amount of command is going to make that work, but the stuff he's shown at his peak including just before the draft absolutely will. The Pirates will want to help build up Diamond's stamina to help get him more consistent with his stuff, and if it clicks, it's hard not to like a plus command arm that gets up into the mid 90's with two quality secondaries. He's off to a strong start in the Florida Complex League, tossing four shutout innings on three hits and one walk while striking out four in three relief appearances.
7-200: RHP J.P. Massey, Minnesota. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $243,000. Signing bonus: $150,000 ($93,000 below slot value).
Big Ten evaluators have been waiting for a J.P. Massey breakout for some time, but haven't gotten it just yet. He was draft eligible as a junior in 2021, but walked 33 batters in 20 innings and returned to school. While you can't call it a breakout, he did get himself figured out a little bit in 2022, holding down a rotation spot and posting a 6.52 ERA and a 63/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings. It's odd to say this about a 22 year old college senior, but Massey is a projection play. His fastball currently sits in the low 90's and touches the mid 90's at best, and he adds a slew of secondaries in a slider, curveball, and changeup that are all extremely inconsistent but show promise. Throw on below average command stemming from troubles with his mechanics, and you have yourself a project. But Massey is listed at 6'5", 205 pounds with great athleticism and moves very naturally on the mound, so scouts continued to come back and watch his starts even as he struggled to a career 6.70 ERA and 17.1% walk rate over four years at Minnesota. The Chicago native does have feel for spin as well on top of his natural athleticism, and a change of scenery away from Minneapolis and into a pro development system might finally help him pull it all together. It's probably a relief profile though unless the Pirates can work some miracles.
8-230: LHP Cy Nielson, Brigham Young. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $193,200. Signing bonus: $175,000 ($18,200 below slot value).
Cy Nielson has been known for some time now as one of the more electric left handers in the Rocky Mountain region, and after walking 17.3% of his opponents in 2021, his command took a big step forward in 2022 as he dropped that number to 5.1%. The result was a 3.21 ERA and a 45/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings as a reliever, as well as some impressive outings in the Cape Cod League. Nielson sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can get up to 97, showing great riding action that helps him miss plenty of barrels. His slider is fairly inconsistent, but flashes above average and can be especially potent against left handed hitters from his crossfire delivery. The Utah native also adds a changeup and has gotten much more consistent with his delivery, making for a serious MLB relief candidate. He has some experience as a starter on the Cape, but it seems best for the Pirates to play it straight up and let his three pitch mix continue to eat in a relief role. If he can hold his command together and get more consistent with his secondary stuff, he could be a highly valuable left handed reliever in short order. So far, he has allowed three runs in 3.2 innings between the Florida Complex League and Low A Bradenton, with three strikeouts to four walks.
14-410: LHP Julian Bosnic, South Carolina. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Julian Bosnic had significant day two interest in 2021, where he posted a 2.84 ERA and a 78/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.2 innings for South Carolina, but bet on himself and went back to school. Unfortunately, he wound up missing the entire 2022 season with an elbow injury, so he signed with the Pirates for $125,000 in the fourteenth round. Bosnic has big stuff, starting with an explosive low to mid 90's fastball that can get up to 97 with excellent riding life. He drops in a hammer curveball that plays extremely well off his fastball, giving him two potential plus pitches to work off while the changeup is a bit behind. As a nearly-23 year old two pitch guy who has never stuck around in a rotation for long, the 6'3" lefty has an uphill climb if he wants to start, though he does show enough command at his best to give it a shot if the Pirates are willing to be patient. More likely, though, is a future where he stays in the bullpen and maxes out that excellent fastball/curveball combination with enough command to make it work. Of course, the first step will be getting healthy.
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