AL MVP
Winner: RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani, Angels.
46 HR, .257/.372/.592, 26 SB, 152 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR in 158 games.
9-2, 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 156/44 K/BB, 3.0 fWAR, in 130.1 innings.
Runner-up: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays.
48 HR, .311/.401/.601, 4 SB, 166 wRC+, 6.7 fWAR in 161 games.
Honorable mention: SS Marcus Semien, Blue Jays.
45 HR, .265/.334/.538, 15 SB, 131 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 162 games.
To me, this wasn't particularly close. Yeah, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a great season at the plate, but it wasn't an outlier even just looking at the past few seasons. His AL-leading 166 wRC+ was four points behind Bryce Harper for the MLB lead, and it would have placed fourth in 2019 behind Mike Trout (177), Christian Yelich (174), and Alex Bregman (167). Combine Guerrero's 166 wRC+ with little defensive value and you still have a very good, MVP-caliber season, but I don't think we can pretend it was some historical run that Shohei Ohtani is unjustly overshadowing because of some novelty. "If he's always going to pitch and hit, should we just give it to him every year?" If he does it at this level, and nobody steps up with a better season, then yes. It's not just "some novelty" and here's why.
Ohtani owns this award through and through. Critics will point to his .257 batting average and 189 strikeouts, but that's about it and it's a terrible argument. The guy walked in nearly 15% of his plate appearances to turn that unremarkable .257 average into a very strong .372 on-base percentage, while his 46 bombs (just one less than Vladdy) meant that he slugged nearly .600 on the year. His 152 wRC+ was actually the second highest in the American League behind only Guerrero and directly ahead of Aaron Judge (149), Matt Olson (147), and Kyle Tucker (146). And he stole 26 bases. Are you going to tell me that's not a great season? On its own, it's definitely not enough to unseat Guerrero as the best hitter in the American League, but it's reasonably close, isn't it? Throw in the fact that he pitched to a 3.18 ERA and struck out nearly 30% of his opponents while making 23 starts, and it more than makes up for the not-that-big gap in offensive production.
Other critics might point to the Blue Jays finishing fourteen games ahead of the Angels in the standings, but Guerrero was teaming with a star-studded cast including Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Robbie Ray, etc., etc., while Ohtani had, like, a month and a half of Mike Trout? I mean I'm sorry he couldn't will an Angels team that didn't have *a single other pitcher* complete one hundred innings to the playoffs, but he did more than anybody else could have. I don't use WPA (win probability added) when choosing my MVP's, but for those that value tangible contributions to winning real baseball games, it's about as accurate a stat as you can get. And Ohtani led all MLB hitters with 5.36, not including his pitching. That's right, just his bat did more to put the Angels in a position to win real baseball games than any other MLB hitter, including Guerrero.
If I sound negative towards Guerrero, I don't mean to. I absolutely believe Ohtani is the AL MVP, but Guerrero had a damn fine season in his own right. He and Bryce Harper were the only two hitters to reach the .300/.400/.600 threshold, and going back to the last full season in 2019, it was only Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich. Not only was he the best hitter in the American League by a comfortable margin, he did it while playing in all but one game and striking out in just over 15% of his plate appearances, something that you just don't often see from power hitters. In fact, he was one of just two American League hitters (along with Jose Ramirez) to hit at least 32 home runs while striking out less than 16% of the time, and he hit 48. I also want to give some love to Marcus Semien, who blasted 45 home runs while playing standout defense at shortstop and appearing in every single game. Jose Ramirez was also considered here.
NL MVP
Winner: OF Bryce Harper, Phillies.
35 HR, .309/.429/.615, 13 SB, 170 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 141 games.
Runner-up: SS Trea Turner, Nationals/Dodgers.
28 HR, .328/.375/.536, 32 SB, 142 wRC+, 6.9 fWAR in 148 games.
Honorable mention: OF Juan Soto, Nationals.
29 HR, .313/.465/.534, 9 SB, 163 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 151 games.
I actually think Trea Turner provided the most value of any player in the NL, and not just because he led in fWAR, but I can't bring myself to give my MVP to a player who split his season between two teams. So it comes down to Bryce Harper and Juan Soto, who had extremely similar seasons, with Harper showing a little more pop and Soto getting on base a touch more and playing ten more games. They also both started (relatively) slowly before heating up in the second half. Harper hit .282/.378/.520 in the first half before turning it around to a .338/.476/.713 line, while Soto was even more extreme at .283/.407/.445 and .348/.525/.639. Additionally, both played moderately decent defense, with Soto winning in OAA (5 to -5) and DRS (3 to -6) and Harper getting the edge by UZR (1.8 to 1.3).
Beyond WAR, I value longevity and consistency highly, and Soto played more while Harper was more consistent. Ultimately, I had to give it to Harper because in the first half of the season, Soto just didn't hit for power. He had just eight extra base hits in his first forty games, so even his second half power surge meant he finished with just 51 to Harper's 78. Soto got on base a lot more, but to be fair, pitchers just weren't throwing to him in the second half with Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Yan Gomes gone from the lineup, and he saw the seventh fewest strikes of any qualified NL hitter in the second half (and all the names above him were extremely aggressive, chase-happy hitters). Absolutely huge credit to him for taking his walks and still doing massive amounts of damage on the balls he did get in the zone, but I still see more value in Harper's second half power surge than Soto's willingness to take his walks.
As a Nationals fan, I don't mean to downplay Juan Soto or his second half discipline – I think he's the single most impressive hitter I've seen since prime Albert Pujols, when I was too young to meaningfully analyze what I was watching beyond emulating his batting stance in backyard wiffleball games. Soto is incredible, and he had an incredible season that's borderline MVP-worthy. And I wouldn't fight you too hard if you picked him over Harper. The consistency and power surge just won me over a tiny bit more than the discipline, while the slow start in terms of Soto's power sits with me a little too much.
Now back to Trea Turner. He led all MLB position players with 6.8 fWAR, but his value goes beyond that. 28 home runs is good, as is a .375 on-base percentage, especially when it's driven by extra base hits and not walks. He went 32/37 in stolen base attempts and played great defense at two positions. It's the most well-rounded profile out there. But I think there's a certain unquantifiable value add that comes with true game-breaking speed like Turner's. When he's on base, it becomes a different baseball game altogether, with pitchers focusing as much on him as they are on the batter. And they have to, because if they forget about him, he'll be on the next base. He wasn't quite the hitter that Juan Soto or Bryce Harper was, but he was on a similar level and added much more defensive value plus that speed. Not just useable speed, but game changing speed. I guess that's where the subjectivity comes in, because he's the MVP if it weren't for the split season.
AL Cy Young
Winner: LHP Robbie Ray, Blue Jays.
13-7, 2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 248/52 K/BB in 193.1 innings.
Runner-up: RHP Gerrit Cole, Yankees.
16-8, 3.23 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 243/41 K/BB in 181.1 innings.
Honorable mention: LHP Carlos Rodon, White Sox.
13-5, 2.37 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 185/36 K/BB in 132.2 innings.
This one was fairly easy for me. Robbie Ray led the AL in innings, ERA, RA9, WHIP, strikeouts, and starts (tied), and he did so in a division with four ninety win teams while traveling around without a home park. Those are traditional stats to value, but I value them. I understand and agree with managers' decisions to shorten the leashes on their starting pitchers because that's what wins ballgames, but that doesn't mean I devalue a pitcher who can pitch deep into games and continue to be effective like Ray. Really, the only blemish was his 33 home runs allowed, fourth most in the AL and enough to inflate his FIP to 3.69, but good pitchers give up dingers. He limited baserunners, he limited runs both earned and unearned, he did it over a large body of work, and he didn't have a home stadium for much of the season. That's a job well done to me.
Gerrit Cole was a pretty easy runner-up for me, too. He was second in strikeouts, WHIP, and FIP, third in ERA and RA9, and fifth in innings. He also did so in a hitter-friendly park and like Ray pitched in that gauntlet AL East. Thirteen of his thirty starts came against the Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays, making for very consistent tough matchups week in and week out. Cole was gutsy and always a competitor, going at least five innings in 28/30 starts, matching Ray's mark of 28/32 in two fewer starts.
For the last spot, I went between Carlos Rodon and Nathan Eovaldi, who each had very unique pitches for this spot. Rodon's 132.2 innings weren't the traditional big body of work I like to see, but batter for batter, he was the most dominant starting pitcher in the majors. If we dropped the innings qualification to 130, he would have led in ERA, RA9, FIP, and strikeout rate. It's too bad he couldn't tack on perhaps ten to twenty more innings or I might have considered him for the #1 spot. Eovaldi, meanwhile, did not have the traditional stats with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, but he was playing in a hitters' park in a strong division with a poor defense behind him, so a 3.75 ERA in that context becomes a lot more impressive. His .327 opponents' BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was the worst in the league, again pointing to a defense that was of no help to him, while his 195/35 strikeout to walk ratio was a strong note. Lance Lynn also earned consideration.
NL Cy Young
Winner: RHP Corbin Burnes, Brewers.11-5, 2.43 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 234/34 K/BB in 167 innings.
15-4, 2.46 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 236/36 K/BB in 179.1 innings.
14-10, 2.78 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 247/46 K/BB in 213.1 innings.
I originally leaned towards Wheeler over Scherzer given his larger body of work, which I value, but then I checked what exactly Wheeler had on Scherzer. In order to get from Scherzer's line to Wheeler's, you'd have to post a 3.97 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP, and an 11/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 innings. I wouldn't necessarily have been looking for Cy Young-caliber numbers in those 34 innings to put Wheeler ahead, but I would have at least wanted #3 starter-caliber performance and that's more like a #5. Throw in that Wheeler pitched his entire season in the weak NL East while Scherzer's final seven starts were a gauntlet (Padres, Braves, Cardinals, Padres, Reds, Rockies at Coors, Padres), and that seals Scherzer's edge for second place (though he only had to face one Giants batter all season, LaMonte Wade, when he was still a National). In Scherzer's "smaller sample" 179.1 innings, he was virtually untouchable, leading the NL in WHIP while finishing second in strikeouts and ERA, third in RA9, and fourth in FIP.
Zack Wheeler had a very strong season, one that was more than deserving of consideration. I really value that he led the NL in innings pitched and strikeouts while also finishing fifth in ERA and WHIP. He went at least five innings in 30/32 starts and at least six in 27/32, and he allowed four or fewer earned runs in 30/32. He also never struck out fewer than four batters and never walked more than he struck out. Wheeler was as consistent a workhorse as they come, and he did so without the traditional pitch to contact method. Behind this trio was Walker Buehler, who earned some consideration but was safely behind.
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