2022 MLB Draft: an early look at the Pac-12

2021 draftees: 45. Top school: UCLA (10)
2021 preseason writeup (published 12/17/2020)

Top draftees:
1-17, Reds: SS Matt McLain (UCLA)
2-38, Rangers: OF Aaron Zavala (Oregon)
2-55, Yankees: RHP Brendan Beck (Stanford)
2-63, Rays: 1B Kyle Manzardo (Washington State)
CBB-70, Cardinals: OF Ryan Holgate (Arizona)
3-82, Nationals: 1B Branden Boissiere (Arizona)

Though the Pac-12 snapped a streak of three straight seasons of at least three first round picks (including at least one in the top five overall), it still showed well in 2021 with every school except Utah having at least three players drafted and UCLA's Matt McLain leading a barrage of ten Bruins as the league's sole first rounder. This year, the league could get back on that pace, with some huge bats in Daniel Susac, Brock Jones, Dylan Beavers, and Ethan Long all having very real first round aspirations heading into the season. Throw in Max Rajcic and any pop-up prospects that could come along, and we should hear a lot from the West Coast early on. Overall, this is a hitter-heavy list, led by Arizona State placing three. Heading into the 2022 season, the top prospects for the upcoming draft are:

1. C Daniel Susac, Arizona.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6'4", 205 lbs. Born 5/14/2001. Hometown: Roseville, CA.
2021: 12 HR, .335/.392/.591, 0 SB, 47/19 K/BB in 61 games.
In 2020, Daniel Susac had a chance to go near the back of the five round draft, but ultimately teams could not meet his asking price and he headed south to Arizona for school. The younger brother of MLB catcher Andrew Susac and a cousin of incoming freshman Anthony Susac, Daniel's massive freshman season now has him ready to take over as the best player in the family. Earning a starting role from day one, he took absolutely no time to adjust to the college level and hit right in the middle of arguably the top offense in college baseball, even rising to the challenge with a .363/.397/.669 line in conference play. Because he's a full year older than much of his high school graduating class, he'll be eligible as a true sophomore but that huge season means he already has plenty of track record. Susac stands out in a variety of areas, bringing a profile that offers both upside and balance. He has plus raw power from both sides of the plate, a product of his long-limbed 6'4" frame that's packed with strength from top to bottom. While he can be an aggressive hitter, he still makes very consistent hard contact and keeps his strikeout rates to a reasonable level, especially for an underclassman. At this point, he rarely walks, but that's not a huge issue for now given his feel for the barrel. On the defensive side, the Sacramento-area product moves very well for his size and will stick behind the plate, adding a plus arm with a quick, effortless release that helps him gun down runners. There are very few holes in Susac's game, with the upside of an All Star catcher who can hit 25-30 home runs per season while getting on base at a solid clip and playing good defense. That's a first round projection, with a chance to hit his way into the top half of the round if he can draw a few more walks.

2. OF Brock Jones, Stanford.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6' 205 lbs. Born 3/28/2001. Hometown: Clovis, CA.
2021: 18 HR, .311/.453/.646, 14 SB, 59/49 K/BB in 56 games.
I went back and forth between Daniel Susac and Brock Jones for the top spot on this list, and even though I eventually landed on Susac, Jones might have an even higher ceiling. He's a stud athlete that also played ten games at the safety position for Stanford's football team in 2019, then after hitting an unremarkable .228/.323/.316 in the shortened 2020 season, broke out for a .311/.453/.646 line this spring with his focus solely on baseball. He packs a ton of strength into a compact six foot frame, giving him the best combination of physical tools and performance in the entire conference. Jones shows off plus raw power from the left side, with a very simple, direct swing effectively channeling his strength into game power with 18 home runs in 2021. He's also an above average runner that can make things happen on the bases, and that translates to plenty of range in the outfield. Safeties don't throw the football very often and he doesn't have that big left arm you often see from these compact power hitters, so if he gets pushed off of center field by a better defender, left field is his most likely destination. The good news is that the Fresno product should hit plenty enough to profile as an every day player even at that less in-demand position and could be an above average defender there. Jones works a lot of deep counts and while he draws his fair share of walks, he can also get into trouble with strikeouts sometimes. The pure hitting ability is there and as he gets farther removed from his football career, we could see a reduction in his strikeout rate from the 22% we saw in 2021. If that happens, he should go off the board relatively early in the first round, and for now it's probably a back of the first round profile.

3. OF Dylan Beavers, California.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'4", 205 lbs. Born 8/11/2001. Hometown: Paso Robles, CA.
2021: 18 HR, .303/.401/.630, 10 SB, 53/32 K/BB in 55 games.
Dylan Beavers is another huge 2021 performer with upside still untapped that could push him into the top half of the first round with a strong 2022. He's extremely young for a college junior, nearly three months younger than true sophomore Daniel Susac, which is something scouts like to see. Beavers produces above average raw power from the left side that he taps very consistently in games, and with his lanky, projectable 6'4" frame, there is probably plus power in the tank. He's really loose in his swing, often just dropping his hands to the ball and letting his natural strength and leverage do the work rather than really selling out for power. A little bit of mechanical refinement to really get him driving up through it will help in that power projection as well. He's fairly aggressive at the plate and struck out in more than 20% of his plate appearances, something he'll want to cut down in 2022, but for now it's not a huge issue and he projects as at least an average hitter if not above average. Beavers' natural athleticism serves him well in the outfield as well, where he has an outside chance to stick in center field if the team that drafts him doesn't have a better option, and he could make a very solid right fielder or a well above average left fielder if it came down to it, showing more arm strength than Brock Jones. For now, because he doesn't control the strike zone as well as the top tier of college hitters in this draft (and an unremarkable eight game run through the Cape Cod League doesn't help either), he probably projects in the second round, but his youth and frame give him every chance to climb boards in 2022.

4. RHP Max Rajcic, UCLA.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 205 lbs. Born 8/3/2001. Hometown: Fullerton, CA.
2021: 2-1, 1.65 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 36/8 K/BB in 32.2 innings.
Like Daniel Susac, Max Rajcic had a chance to go in the back of the shortened 2020 draft if he were signable, and also like Susac, he's eligible again in 2022 because he's old for the class, though still two and a half months younger than his Arizona counterpart. Rajcic is the top pitching prospect in the conference heading into the season, having posted a strong freshman season as the UCLA closer followed by a very respectable run through the Cape Cod League as a starter (4.32 ERA, 28/8 K/BB in 25 IP). He consistently touched 95-96 as a reliever last spring, then sat comfortably in the low 90's as a starter on the Cape with good command of that fastball. His bread and butter is a wipeout slider with extremely high spin rates, coming in with tight, late bite that makes it a plus pitch. For now, he does command his fastball better than his slider, but it has been extremely effective for him nonetheless. Rajcic also throws a changeup with some fade, but doesn't quite have quite as much feel for it as his fastball and slider and he mainly sticks with those two pitches in games. In order to pitch his way into the top two rounds in 2022, he'll want to establish that changeup as at least a consistently useable game pitch, and without it he's more of a third round type. The other big item on his to do list is proving his durability as a starter and holding his stuff throughout the spring, as he'll get less benefit of the doubt as a physically maxed-out six footer with some effort in his delivery. For now, the Southern California product projects in the third round range but I have a hunch he's going to change that.

5. 1B Ethan Long, Arizona State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 215 lbs. Born 5/10/2001. Hometown: Gilbert, AZ.
2021; 16 HR, .340/.417/.704, 0 SB, 46/18 K/BB in 51 games.
Ethan Long is in the same boat as Daniel Susac and Max Rajcic as a true sophomore that's eligible this year with an early birthday, and he's actually the oldest of the three and will turn 21 before many true juniors. Long rounds out the quartet of Pac-12 mashers with Susac, Brock Jones, and Dylan Beavers, and his 1.121 OPS in 2021 healthily bested all three of the others. For now, he's mostly a one tool player, but it's a loud one. The Phoenix-area native has plus raw power from the right side, flinging the barrel through the zone with ease with a ton of bat speed that helps him blast baseballs impressive distances to all fields. He taps that power very consistently in games and needed no time to adjust to Pac-12 pitching, still holding a .330/.423/.680 line against in-conference opponents. For now, that power comes with a healthy amount of swing and miss, with his 24% strikeout rate also the highest of the quartet stemming from an aggressive approach and the need to better identify pitches. He also does not provide much defensive value as a below average runner, but more seasoning and exposure in the field this spring could shed light as to whether he could stick in a corner outfield spot or just be limited to first base. Long's strong arm has run fastballs up to 97 and he even earned 6.2 (scoreless) innings out of the Sun Devil bullpen in 2021, so that could help make right field work. If he comes out in 2022 with a more selective approach at the plate and cuts his strikeout rate to under 20%, he could mash his way into the top couple of rounds with an Aaron Sabato/Seth Beer type of profile.

6. LHP Cooper Hjerpe, Oregon State.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'2", 190 lbs. Born 3/16/2001. Hometown: Capay, CA.
2021: 3-6, 4.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 98/27 K/BB in 77 innings.
Cooper Hjerpe is a favorite sleeper among Pacific Northwest area scouts, with a profile somewhat similar to TCU lefty Austin Krob, except that he's a year and a half younger with more time to build on his game. Hjerpe sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can run it up as high as 97, adding a sweeping slider and a sinking changeup. The fastball comes in with a flat approach angle, while his slider can pop out of his hand at times but can also show big lateral break, while his changeup has great separation from his fastball. Everything plays up because he comes from a low three quarters, nearly sidearm slot, making everything tough to pick up and producing a unique movement pattern. The fact that he fills up the strike zone with all three pitches is a bonus as well, with a repeatable delivery and a strong frame helping him project as a starter in pro ball. For now, he doesn't quite have the out pitch to profile in the top couple rounds, but a step forward with pretty much anything in 2022 could send him flying up boards. It's a back-end starter projection with a chance for more.

7. RHP Will Frisch, Oregon State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 225 lbs. Born 7/14/2000. Hometown: Stillwater, MN.
2021: 3-0, 2.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 54/24 K/BB in 56.2 innings.
Will Frisch was eligible as a sophomore last spring due to an early birthday, coming in at #201 on my board, but when the money wasn't there, he decided to head back to school and try his luck again. He's coming off a very strong season as a swingman for Oregon State, often throwing multiple innings and going five innings in strong starts against New Mexico, Washington, and Oregon. Frisch sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has popped for as much as 98 in short stints, coming from a lower arm slot that gives the pitch a flat approach angle, with the ability to run and sink the ball when he needs to. He flips in an average slider and flashes an above average changeup, though I have seen him struggle to keep the latter down at times. The 6' righty doesn't have much projection remaining but does generally do a good job of filling up the strike zone, though he can be scattered at times. He projects as a back-end starter or a long reliever for now, with the chance to improve that projection if he can tighten up his slider and/or get more consistent with his location within the zone, both with his fastball and offspeed stuff. The Minnesotan will also be gunning for more innings in the rotation, which with Kevin Abel (Reds, seventh round) and Jack Washburn (transfer, Ole Miss) gone, should be easier in 2022.

8. OF/RHP Steven Zobac, California.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'2", 200 lbs. Born 10/14/2000. Hometown: San Jose, CA.
2021: 5 HR, .240/.344/.359, 4 SB, 35/20 K/BB in 52 games.
2021: 2-2, 4.66 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 19/8 K/BB in 19.1 innings.
Steven Zobac is an interesting two-way player that has a chance to work his way into the top couple of rounds in either role. I prefer him slightly as a hitter, where he's yet to make a big impact at Cal but did hit .305/.443/.542 with more walks (12) than strikeouts (11) in 21 games in the California Collegiate League this summer. He has a compact left handed swing and manages the strike zone well, giving him a good shot at an above average hit tool in time. With a strong 6'2" frame, I could see him growing into average power as well if he adds a little bit of loft, and together that's a very balanced offensive profile. As you'd imagine, he has a strong arm in the outfield that will make him a solid right fielder, and he's athletic and fast enough to steal a few bases here and there. To me, it seems like the kind of profile where everything could click once he focuses solely on hitting. On the mound, I haven't seen any velocity numbers for Zobac since high school, where he sat around 90 with his fastball, so I'd imagine he's probably a slight tick above that now. He has a short but sharp cutter/slider that functions as his primary bat-missing pitch, and in general he throws strikes. The San Jose product will need to prove he can handle longer outings after typically throwing one to two innings at a time last spring and over the summer, and in general he looks a bit more natural at the plate than on the mound in my opinion. He looks like a late day two option as a hitter, which could become an early day two profile with a singular focus.

9. 2B Joe Lampe, Arizona State.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 185 lbs. Born 12/5/2000. Hometown: Petaluma, CA.
2021: 3 HR, .294/.383/.461, 6 SB, 27/21 K/BB in 54 games.
Joe Lampe played with Spencer Torkelson at Casa Grande High School just north of San Francisco, then after a very successful year at Santa Rosa College (.424/.477/.687 in 20 games), he followed in Torkelson's footsteps down to Arizona State for the 2021 season. He may not have produced the loud numbers of his predecessor, but he was one of the Sun Devils' most consistent hitters last year and figures to provide a similarly steady presence in 2022. Lampe makes a ton of hard contact and struck out in just 12% of his plate appearances in 2021, showing excellent bat to ball skills and using the entire field extremely well. He'll likely always have well below average power, having knocked just two extra base hits in 37 Cape Cod League games this summer, but his plus speed will likely help him hit plenty of doubles and triples as he shoots line drives from gap to gap. He's selective at the plate and usually finds good pitches to hit, and when he gets them, he's adept at going with the pitch and getting his best swing off. His future position is a bit up in the air, but he should provide positive value wherever he ends up, whether that's shortstop (probably only in the best-case scenario), second base, or the outfield. Lampe looks like a late day two pick and projects as a super-utility type who can get on base consistently.

10. 2B Sean McLain, Arizona State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'11", 170 lbs. Born 3/22/2001. Hometown: Tustin, CA.
2021: 7 HR, .322/.386/.519, 6 SB, 52/13 K/BB in 52 games.
Matt McLain has earned most of the attention as a two-time first round pick, but the McLain family has far more to offer. The youngest, Nick, just reached campus at UCLA after turning down six figure offers out of high school, while middle brother Sean is coming off a strong breakout season at Arizona State and could be a high draft pick this spring. Sean has a fairly similar profile to Matt if you take perhaps a half grade off most of his tools, with a consistent line drive bat that has taken very well to the Pac-12. He utilizes a compact right handed swing, again not unlike his brother, with the chance to tap into average power if he adds some loft. The Orange County product is a very aggressive hitter at this point in his career and rarely walks, so he'll want to show better zone control in 2022 to prove to teams that he'll be ready for pro pitching. His speed and athleticism make him a good candidate to stick at second base in pro ball.