After the 2020 draft, we saw an unprecedented number of draft-eligible college stars return to school because of the shortened draft, headlined by players like Florida's Tommy Mace, ECU's Gavin Williams, and Ohio State's Seth Lonsway (as I wrote about after the fact). Williams ended up being the first 2020-eligible player drafted in 2021 at 23rd overall, followed by Florida State's Matheu Nelson at 35th overall and Fordham's Matt Mikulski at 50th overall. While we certainly don't have the same depth in the 2021 class of returners given the fifteen extra rounds, we may have even greater star power at the top after a couple of early picks went unsigned, of course led by the high profile Kumar Rocker debacle. Let's take a look at the top ten draft prospects returning to school after being eligible in 2021. Rankings are from my personal board and the list goes by that board, not their 2022 draft status.
1. RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt (?). 2021 rank: #10.
2021 stats: 14-4, 2.73 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 179/39 K/BB in 122 IP.
Most of us have heard all about this one by now. Kumar Rocker, the most famous name in college baseball, was drafted tenth overall by the Mets and initially agreed to a $6 million signing bonus, but a dispute over his medical led to New York completely rescinding their offer, deciding the compensation they'd get in 2022 would be more valuable than giving him even a single penny to sign. Of course, that leaves Rocker in a pickle because he was in effect barred from playing affiliated professional baseball as a result, through no fault of his own. It sounds like he won't be going back to Vanderbilt in 2022, where he would head up a rotation with some ultra talented up-and-comers like Patrick Reilly and Christian Little. That could change, and as a fan of college baseball myself, I'd love to see that happen. There are plenty of independent league teams throughout the US that would kill for the opportunity to get him on their club, and he could also take the Carter Stewart route through Japan or another foreign professional league. Or he could just work out on his own and throw bullpens for scouts, which to me sounds pretty boring but could be the best way for him to control his future. If his stuff stays where it is now and he proves fully healthy one way or another, then he'll likely hear his name called in back to back first rounds a la Mark Appel (though let's hope his career goes a bit smoother than Appel's). We've all heard plenty about the stuff by now, but let's talk about it one more time. The 6'5" righty pounds the strike zone with a low to mid 90's fastball that can get into the upper 90's, though at times it can play a bit true and scouts have nitpicked his ability to command it within the zone. He throws a slider that can be double-plus at its best, such as when he used it to finish all nineteen of his strikeouts in a super regional no-hitter against Duke as a freshman, though at times it got a bit slurvy in 2021. Rocker has also developed a cutter that looks like an above average pitch and has shown solid feel for a changeup, though the latter was hit hard at times in 2021. There's obviously huge upside here as a true ace, but of course he has a lot of questions to answer in 2022.
2. OF Jud Fabian, Florida. 2021 rank: #22.
2021 stats: 20 HR, 46 RBI, .249/.364/.560, 6 SB, 79/40 K/BB in 59 games.
Like Kumar Rocker, Jud Fabian was drafted early (in this case 40th overall), but it was a slightly different situation. While Rocker and the Mets disagreed over his medicals and the Mets outright refused to offer him a dollar, Fabian and the Red Sox disagreed over money. Fabian made it clear he wanted something in the ballpark of $3 million and it was rumored that other teams farther down in the second round were willing to give it to him, but Boston took him earlier and offered him a fraction of that. Because Fabian is extremely young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until September, he held extra leverage and was able to hold his ground for the bonus he wanted, and ultimately the Red Sox couldn't meet it. He'll return to Gainesville for a fourth season and will fit right in age-wise with the 2022 first-time college draftees, perhaps a hair on the older side but still in the same range as guys like Jace Jung, Hayden Dunhurst, and Chase DeLauter. Fabian stands out for a combination of feel and tools at a young age, showing plus raw power that he taps consistently in games including not one but two home runs off of second overall pick Jack Leiter. He had one of the best eyes in the class at determining balls from strikes and also did well with fastballs versus offspeed pitches, so he rarely chased even against quality SEC stuff. The only problem here was the pure bat to ball skills, as the Ocala native struggled mightily with swing and miss even on pitches in the zone. This was due to a quick uppercut that naturally comes with more swing and miss, but he got so streaky at times (including sixteen strikeouts in a five game span against South Carolina and Ole Miss) that teams were too nervous to give him his money in the first round. Back in Gainesville next year, he'll work to prove that he can catch up to premium SEC fastballs, and if he can have a slump-free run next spring, we could be talking top half of the first round.
3. RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia. 2021 rank: #99.
2021 stats: 4-2, 3.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 57/13 K/BB in 63.1 IP.
Jonathan Cannon entered the spring with a chance to pitch his way into the first round, and in January I had him right on the fringes of that first round range. He missed the start of the season with mono, then tossed six shutout innings over his first two starts against Georgia Southern and Lipscomb as he got back on track. However, he ultimately ended up looking much more "good" than "great," with seven scoreless innings against Vanderbilt on April 10th being his only true gem. Cannon sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can reach back for up to 96-97 early in starts, and there have been times where he's been able to touch the mid 90's late in starts as well. He adds a horizontal slider with some snap and a changeup with nice fade, and while they both have their moments, they look closer to average than plus. The big 6'6" righty does an excellent job of filling up the strike zone and only walked multiple batters in three of his thirteen starts, though to this point the control is ahead of the command and he can get hit when he leaves pitches over the plate. Right now, the profile seems *this close* to being that of an impact starter, and he'll look to get over that hump back in Athens in 2022. If he can get just a little more consistent with his offspeed stuff or perhaps tighten his in-zone command just a hair, we have a top two rounds prospect. The Atlanta-area native was eligible as a sophomore last year with a July birthday so he'll be just slightly older than most first-time eligible players in 2022.
4. LHP Andrew Walling, Eastern Oklahoma State JC -> Mississippi State. 2021 rank: #103.
2021 stats: 10-2, 2.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 107/27 K/BB in 69.2 IP.
Eastern Oklahoma State College in Wilburton, Oklahoma compiled an extremely talented rotation in 2021, one that sent Christian McGowan to the Phillies in the seventh round and could have sent Andrew Walling to pro ball even earlier if he was signable. Instead, he'll head east to Mississippi State, where he'll help the Bulldogs fill the massive holes left by their top two starters, Will Bednar (Giants, first round) and Christian MacLeod (Twins, fifth round). Walling began his career at Oregon State but threw just 10.1 innings from 2019-2020 (while walking eleven), and consistent innings in Wilburton turned out to be just what he needed. His control improved to fringe-average, which helped his big stuff play up. The Longview, Washington native sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has touched 97-98, holding that velocity throughout his starts for the most part. He has great feel to spin the ball and shows a big curveball with depth and a sharp slider that he locates well, in addition to a decent changeup. The 6'3" lefty has a durable frame and a pretty repeatable delivery, and he has a very good chance to take over a weekend rotation spot in Starkville even as he competes with Jackson Fristoe, Landon Sims, and other holdovers. I would consider myself one of the high guys on Walling as far as the 2021 draft goes, and while he'll be on the older side in 2022 as he'll pitch the entire season at 22 years old, I definitely see mid-rotation upside.
5. OF Isaiah Thomas, Vanderbilt (?). My rank: #109.
2021 stats: 13 HR, 40 RBI, .305/.361/.583, 12 SB, 63/9 K/BB in 59 games.
Vanderbilt is returning a hell of a lineup next spring, with catcher CJ Rodriguez (A's, fifth round) and third baseman Jayson Gonzalez (White Sox, seventeenth round) being the only major losses. They didn't think they'd be getting back right fielder Isaiah Thomas, who might have the highest offensive ceiling in the entire program aside from potential 2022 first rounder Carter Young, but here we are. Few players anywhere in college baseball can scorch a line drive like Thomas, who packs a ton of lean strength into his 6'3" frame and shows plus raw power from the right side. He's also shown a very accurate barrel that has consistently punished quality SEC pitching, which is especially notable because he was one of the most aggressive hitters in the draft class last year. Thomas swings at pretty much everything even remotely hittable, walking an average of just once every six and a half games while striking out at a 25.7% clip. Honestly to me, that makes his ability to do consistent damage against high-end pitching very impressive, and I really think the sky is the limit. In 2022, the South Florida native will really need to tone down his approach and show the ability to work counts rather than just hacking away until something happens, and if he can even get his K/BB ratio to something like a 2:1 or 3:1 rather than the 7:1 he showed in 2021, he could be one of the first seniors drafted.
*Update, the day after I published this article, Isaiah Thomas announced his intention to step away from the Vanderbilt baseball program for mental health reasons.
6. RHP Dylan Ross, Northwest Florida State JC -> Georgia. My rank: #158.
2021 stats: 6-2, 3.88 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 77/28 K/BB in 60.1 IP.
Dylan Ross began his career at Eastern Kentucky, but earned just four innings out of the Colonels bullpen and transferred to Northwest Florida State in the panhandle. He showed flashes of dominance, such as when he struck out fifteen against Tallahassee JC, and now he'll return to his home state of Georgia to join Jonathan Cannon in the Bulldogs rotation and replace Ryan Webb (Indians, fourth round). Ross is all about power. His fastball sits consistently in the mid 90's and has touched as high as 99, so triple digits are not out of the question in 2022. He adds a short, tight slider in the mid to upper 80's that can miss bats when it's located, while his equally hard splitter really gets hitters off balance. The 6'5" righty has long levers and throws with some effort, so he often has a hard time keeping everything in sync and can get scattered. He was able to blow baseballs by Florida JuCo hitters and that masked some of his control questions, but the transition to more polished SEC hitters in 2022 will be closely watched. The Statesboro native also faces relief questions because everything he throws is hard, and he currently lacks the ability to change speeds and mess with hitters' timing like you'd expect from a starting pitcher. If the Georgia staff can help him develop something softer, perhaps a changeup or a curveball, that could go a long way, but of course the command does need to be addressed as well. He'll be age appropriate in 2022, pitching the whole season at 21 years old.
7. RHP Troy Melton, San Diego State. My rank: #163.
2021 stats: 4-5, 6.14 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 83/30 K/BB in 73.1 IP.
Troy Melton continues the theme of younger players who weren't yet 21 on draft day. He's fairly new to pitching and when you combine that with his extreme youth, scouts were willing to give him more slack than most other prospects. However, he still wasn't quite effective enough this spring to give scouts confidence in projecting him as a starter, allowing at least four runs in six of his last seven starts. Melton is a natural on the mound with a low to mid 90's fastball that he can run up to 97, while his lower release point and nice extension make the pitch play up. He adds a sweepy slider and a more top to bottom, get-me-over curveball, as well as a decent changeup. While he has a tendency to leave pitches over the plate, he shows average command and has a very repeatable delivery. The 6'4" righty moves extremely well on the mound and shows the kind of profile that will be really malleable once he gets into pro ball. Now that he'll be age-appropriate rather than a full year younger than his drat-eligible peers (he doesn't turn 21 until December), scouts will want to see a little more development in his game, but overall it's still a really fun ball of clay to work with. The Orange County native will go back to San Diego State in 2022 to prove that he can make it as a starting pitcher, hopefully taking that next step that scouts have been hoping for.
8. RHP Mack Anglin, Clemson. My rank: #183.
2021 stats: 2-6, 3.99 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 75/33 K/BB in 56.1 IP.
Mack Anglin was actually drafted by the Nationals in the thirteenth round as backup in case Brady House or Daylen Lile didn't sign, but they both did and Anglin wanted more money than Washington could offer him. He was eligible as a sophomore due to a July birthday, so after being relatively young for last year's class, he'll just be relatively old for this one. Anglin stands out for his ability to just rip through a baseball on the mound, getting exceptionally high spin rates on his stuff that really make the ball dance. His fastball sits in the mid 90's while his curveball and slider are unique, plus pitches. However, it's clearly a relief profile at this point because he has a high effort delivery and can struggle to throw consistent strikes, and for that reason, teams didn't want to meet his asking price. The central Ohio native has a chance to go back to Clemson and smooth things out a bit, and if he can, the pure stuff fits in the top one hundred picks. He was sharp in the Cape Cod League and struck out sixteen in 12.2 innings, but the delivery still looked a bit rushed and he still has a reliever profile for now. We'll see where that stands after another full season in the ACC.
9. RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech. My rank: #184.
2021 stats: 4-1, 3.06 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 36/9 K/BB in 35.1 IP.
I'd like to congratulate Brandon Birdsell for making this list two years in a row, as he ranked fifth a year ago coming out of San Jacinto JC. At this point last year, he was just breaking out as a prospect and had a ton of helium behind his name, but the fact that COVID shut down his breakout season meant that teams weren't quite comfortable enough with his track record to sign him away from a Texas Tech commitment. Birdsell continued that breakout in 2021 and allowed no more than one earned run in any of his final five starts, but unfortunately went down with a shoulder injury in April and never got back on the mound. Shoulders are really scary and teams were justifiably nervous to pay him like an impact pitching prospect, so he'll head back to Texas Tech in 2022 where he will look to prove his health. He has a good opportunity there with Mason Montgomery (Rays, sixth round), Ryan Sublette (Dodgers, seventh round), Hunter Dobbins (Red Sox, eighth round), and Patrick Monteverde (Marlins, eighth round) all gone to pro ball, as well as Micah Dallas having transferred to Texas A&M and Connor Queen graduating, so the Red Raiders are wide open for innings next spring. When healthy, the Southeast Texas product has two big league pitches in a mid 90's fastball that has gotten up to 99 as well as a power upper 80's slider. He also adds a newer curveball and a changeup that look solid at times but need more consistency. Birdsell pounds the strike zone and shows average command when healthy, so he has a chance to really improve his stock with a healthy 2022. That and further refinement of his curve or changeup will help teams project him as a starter, whereas if any of that lags, he might have more of a reliever outlook. The 6'2" righty was drafted by the Twins in the eleventh round this year but didn't sign.
10. LHP Austin Krob, Texas Christian. My rank: #186.
2021 stats: 8-1, 3.81 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 96/37 K/BB in 85 innings.
Austin Krob looked to be an interesting late day two option, but instead he went undrafted and is heading back to TCU for a third season, which was preceded by a year at Kirkwood JC in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Since he'll turn 22 in September, he's the oldest player on this list and will therefore be nearly 23 by the time he gets into pro ball. He was pretty dependable this spring and with Russell Smith (Brewers, second round) and Johnny Ray (White Sox, twelfth round) gone to pro ball, he's the only returning member of the weekend rotation. The 6'3" lefty is up to the task, showing solid command of a quality four pitch mix. His fastball sits in the low 90's and gets up to 94-95, while his sweepy slider and fading changeup are regularly above average. He can morph that slider into more of a downer curveball, though it's better when it's a true slider. Krob uses a low three quarters delivery that puts some lateral angle on the baseball, and while he doesn't figure to miss a ton of bats in pro ball, he profiles well as a back-end starter that can eat innings and generate weak contact. The Iowa native seems like he is what he is as a prospect, so staying healthy and continuing to miss bats in the Big 12 will be on his to-do list in 2022.
Others:
#191 LHP Julian Bosnic, South Carolina
#192 1B Dominic Keegan, Vanderbilt
#194 LHP Pete Hansen, Texas
#196 1B Ivan Melendez, Texas
#201 RHP Will Frisch, Oregon State
#203 RHP Mason Pelio, Boston College
#216 OF Levi Usher, Louisville
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