The Yankees have recently shifted their drafting philosophy from toolsy athletes to players with strong work ethics and high baseball IQ's, and judging by the success of guys like Anthony Volpe, Ken Waldichuk, and Josh Smith (traded to the Rangers at the deadline), among others, it seems to be working. The Bombers continued that philosophy in 2021, and they're hoping to get another strong draft class out of it that outperforms expectations. They only made one big over slot signing in third rounder Brock Selvidge, instead spreading slight under slots (for the most part) to their other day one and two picks. Still, they came away with a strong class and I think I'm most interested in first rounder Trey Sweeney as my favorite pick, especially considering they got him below slot.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
1-20: SS Trey Sweeney, Eastern Illinois. My rank: #16.
Trey Sweeney was a late riser in 2021, just mashing his way into the first round against a weaker schedule. He ranked back to back with #5 overall pick Colton Cowser in my rankings, because honestly I saw a lot of similarities in their games and you could make a very strong argument that Sweeney is actually the better player. He burst onto the scene this year with a ridiculous .382/.522/.712 slash line, 14 home runs, and an exceptional 24/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games against a weaker schedule in a hitter-friendly conference, but those numbers are not a mirage. Sweeney picked up two hits against the man drafted immediately behind him, Cubs first rounder Jordan Wicks, and finished that series against a strong Kansas State pitching staff 5-13 with a home run and just one strikeout. The Louisville native simply shows exceptional plate discipline everywhere he goes, to the point where the Yankees are comfortable that it will translate to the much better pitching he'll face in pro ball. There's above average raw power in there as well, as he's posted high exit velocities on his plethora of line drives and home runs this year. It's a bit of a loud setup with some bat waggle, a big leg kick, and a slight hitch in his left handed swing, but still he struck out in just 10.6% of his plate appearances this year and swing and miss should not be an issue. Opinions are split on his defense, with proponents seeing his strong arm and just enough glove to stick at shortstop and detractors seeing a lack of speed better fit for third base. Given the presence of Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza in this system, plus the fact that the Yankees are rumored to be interested in a long term deal for Corey Seager or Trevor Story this offseason, might push him to third anyways. Regardless, I really like the upside here and Sweeney has a chance to produce 20+ home runs annually with high on-base percentages in New York. He signed for $3 million (about $240,000 below slot) and has homered and walked once each in four plate appearances in the FCL.
2-55: RHP Brendan Beck, Stanford. #91.
Brendan Beck was another late riser this spring, and honestly I wish I pushed him up my board a little further before the draft came around. The younger brother of Giants prospect Tristan Beck, Brendan was eligible last year but was thought of more as a sixth to tenth round arm and went unselected in the shortened draft, then raised his stock this spring with a 3.15 ERA and a 143/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 108.2 innings. Perhaps his signature moment came in Stanford's super regional opener on June 11th, when the temperature hit 106 degrees in Lubbock (something the Bay Area kids are likely not used to at all) and he decided to choose the black jerseys because "it was going to be Texas Tech's funeral." Indeed it was, as Beck struck out thirteen Red Raiders and the Cardinal won the game 15-3. I really respect that move not only because it sounds badass, but because it speaks to a deeper level of competitiveness. It is not easy for anybody to travel out to the West Texas flatlands, which are about as different from Palo Alto as it can possibly get, then play the #8 national seed on their home turf in sweltering heat. Rather than try to make the best of it by wearing white, which would have been a perfectly respectable choice, I love that he leaned into the challenge and basically said "screw it, let's go to war and just wear black." Anyways, onto Beck's stuff, which ticked up late in the season. The southern California native now sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has been touching 95-96, adding an above average curveball and a distinct, average slider. The changeup is currently his fourth pitch, but with his aptitude for pitching, he should be able to deploy it as a solid option in the big leagues. Beck goes right after hitters and pounds the strike zone, showing above average command and pitch execution that makes everything play up. The 6'2" righty has also proven extremely durable, throwing nearly 300 innings in his Stanford career (with a 3.11 ERA no less) and getting better and better throughout. While there's likely not a #1 or #2 ceiling here, he strikes me as a high probability big leaguer who will almost certainly earn MLB innings in some capacity, something that is hard to say for most players picked outside the top fifty picks. The ceiling is that of a #3 or #4 starter, and I think he'll move quickly once turned loose in the minors (though that could come relatively slowly as he shouldered a heavy load in Palo Alto this year). He signed for $1.05 million, which was about $260,000 below slot value, despite being set to turn 23 after the season.
3-92: LHP Brock Selvidge, Hamilton HS [AZ]. My rank: #156.
This was the big over slot pick, so while Trey Sweeney had the biggest bonus in the first round, there will be a lot of pressure to get this one right. Brock Selvidge was one of the best arms in the West over the summer last year, showing a projectable frame and the potential for two plus pitches, but he struggled in the spring and tumbled down draft boards. He was likely bound for LSU until an exceptional showing at the MLB Draft Combine in June reversed his fortunes, and the Yankees gave him as much money as he might have expected had the draft been before that rough spring. Selvidge is a 6'3" lefty with plenty of projection in his athletic frame, and his fastball touches 95-96 with high spin rates when he's at his best. There's a slider that was above average last summer, fringy this spring, and back to above average at the combine, and additional refinement with pro coaching could make it a plus pitch. He throws a curveball and a changeup at times, with the changeup flashing average and the curve looking like a distant fourth pitch. His delivery has gone through many iterations; last summer, it looked like he was jerking his way through it at times even when his stuff was at its best, leading to fringy command. This spring, he was throwing with more effort overall, pushing his command down another half grade. Then at the combine, he showed a smoother delivery than even last summer, and he filled up the strike zone consistently. The Yankees will have their work cut out for them to bring the best version of Brock Selvidge, but they've had a lot of success developing prospects lately so they're pretty confident in their ability to do so. The Phoenix-area native signed away from that LSU commitment for $1.5 million, which was $862,400 above slot value.
4-122: 2B Cooper Bowman, Louisville. My rank: #234.
This is another safe-bet money saver. Cooper Bowman began his career at Iowa Western JC, one of the top JUCO's in the region, before transferring over to Louisville this year. While many Cardinals had down seasons, Bowman was one of their steadier players, slashing .293/.387/.455 with eight home runs, twenty stolen bases, and a 32/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games. The Rapid City native is looking to become what I believe would be the only active major leaguer from South Dakota (Sean Doolittle was born in Rapid City as well but grew up in New Jersey), and he should be able to move towards that relatively quickly. He shows strong plate discipline and held a strong 14.3% strikeout rate against a tough schedule this year, with moderate gap power that will keep pitchers honest in pro ball. He's a plus runner that can make things happen on the bases, and his potential to produce relatively high on-base percentages should enable him to make the most of that speed. Bowman doesn't quite have the arm for shortstop but should be a solid second baseman, and overall it's a utility infielder outlook. He signed for $353,000, which was $116,000 below slot value, then got off to a hot start in the FCL with four hits (including a home run) in eight at bats.
5-153: 1B Tyler Hardman, Oklahoma. Unranked.
In the fifth round, the Yankees picked up arguably the best hitter in the Big 12 this year. After never hitting more than six home runs or batting above .306 in any of his previous three seasons at Oklahoma, Tyler Hardman busted out for a .397/.481/.661 slash line, twelve home runs, and a 59/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. The southern California native, who actually grew up in the same hometown (Corona) as second rounder Brendan Beck, shows big raw power from the right side that he gets to consistently in games, and in 2021 he also showed the ability to handle advanced Big 12 pitching consistently. It's a patient approach for the 6'3" slugger that leads to a slightly elevated strikeout rate (22.5% this year), but he draws his walks (13%), and he fits right in with the right handed power bats Yankees fans have come to know for better or for worse. Hardman is limited to first base defensively even as his defense has gotten better there, so all of his value will be tied to his bat. He's a bit older given that he turned 22 in January, but he has enough thump in his bat to potentially profile as a regular at first base or if not, a strong platoon option. Hardman signed for $200,000, which was $146,800 below slot value, and has two doubles in five at bats so far in the FCL.
6-183: RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn. My rank: #139.
Richard Fitts has been perhaps one of the most difficult players in this draft cycle to get a read on. A day two prospect coming into his junior season, he was electric in fall practice and showed three above average or better pitches while pounding the strike zone with all of them. Had the draft been over the winter, he may not have even been available when the Yankees picked in the first round. It turned out to be a nightmare spring, however, and he finished with a 5.88 ERA and a 41/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.1 innings, even losing his rotation spot some weeks as he battled a foot injury. He did seem to find his groove a bit in May, where he went six and eight innings while allowing just one hit apiece against LSU and Missouri in two of his final three starts, though that was sandwiched around a rough start against Texas A&M. When the Birmingham-area native is at his best, he attacks hitters with a low to mid 90's fastball, an above average downer slider, and an above average splitter, all while pounding the strike zone and controlling at bats. This spring, though, both of his offspeed pitches lost their bite, and hitters could sit on his fastball and crush it when he left them over the plate. The 6'3" righty has a durable frame and is relatively new to starting, so the Yankees likely think this was more of a hiccup than anything else and would love to get him into their development system. There's huge upside to be had here if things do work out, but you're also looking at a 21 and a half year old who really only has a few good starts on his resume spread out between fall practice and the end of his spring season. Fitts signed for $346,800 ($80,800 above slot value), marking the Yankees only other above slot pick on day two besides Brock Selvidge.
10-303: SS Benjamin Cowles, Maryland. Unranked.
I like to highlight hometown picks in these reviews, and tenth rounder Benjamin Cowles somewhat gives me a chance to do that. Cowles grew up in Newark, but not the one across the Hudson – he's an upstater from Newark, New York, which is a small town between Syracuse and Rochester. Cowles headed south to Maryland for school, where he's gotten better and better every year. After slashing .200/.317/.314 as a freshman, he improved to .241/.364/.463 as a sophomore then broke out in 2021, slashing .287/.409/.632 with 18 home runs and a 57/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games. He draws his power from a quick, clean uppercut from the right side, using his 6'1" frame to put great loft on the ball and tap his average raw power very consistently in games. There's a bit of bat wrap and uppercuts often lead to some swing and miss, and he did strike out in 26% of his plate appearances this year. You're usually projecting infielders as utility guys at this point in the draft, but Cowles' ability to tap his power gives him the ceiling of an everyday guy. He signed for $140,000, which was $4,100 below slot value, and has singled, tripled, and walked in seven trips to the plate in the FCL.
11-333: RHP Jack Neely, Ohio State. Unranked.
With their first pick on day three, the Yankees took a flier on Jack Neely, a flame throwing right hander who has bounced around quite a bit. He began his career at Texas, but walked 14 batters in 9.2 innings and allowed eighteen runs. Transferring to Iowa Western JC (where he played with fourth rounder Cooper Bowman), he was dominant in a small sample, then held his own in a larger sample at Ohio State this year with a 6.10 ERA and a 62/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.1 innings. The massive 6'8" righty saw a velocity bump this spring and now sits comfortably in the mid 90's and even hit triple digits with his fastball. His offspeed stuff is fringy but the slider took a step forward this year, looking like at least an average pitch, while his curveball and changeup remain below average. His command has improved from non-playable to simply below average, which given his velocity and the step forward with his slider, you'll take. There is still a lot of work to be done and the San Antonio native still probably projects as a reliever, but the Yankees are buying the size and arm strength hoping for something more. Neely signed for $150,000, of which $25,000 counts against the bonus pool.
13-393: RHP Zach Messinger, Virginia. Unranked.
The Yankees biggest bonus of day three went to Virginia righty Zach Messinger, who couldn't quite crack the Cavalier rotation on a regular basis but showed well when he was on. He finished the season with a 4.89 ERA and a 64/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 innings, including a ten strikeout relief performance against VCU on April 20th. The 6'6" righty has plenty of arm strength and can get into the mid 90's in relief, adding an above average slider as well as a fringier curve and changeup, not unlike Jack Neely. He shows close to average command and if he can refine either the curve or changeup a little bit more, he does have the build and delivery to start. The Yankees have been very good about finding diamonds in the rough lately and Messinger seems like he could be one. The Evansville, Indiana-area native signed for $225,000, of which $100,000 counts against the bonus pool.
15-453: RHP Danny Watson, Virginia Commonwealth. Unranked.
I want to get another semi-hometown pick in. Danny Watson may be at VCU, but he grew up in the upstate town of Nassau, New York (not to be confused with Nassau County) and attended Columbia High School across the river from Albany. This year in Richmond, he posted a 4.06 ERA and a 55/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 44.1 innings out of a swingman role. He brings a really unique look to hitters as a massive 6'7" righty with a very low three quarters, nearly sidearm slot. That creates an extremely tough look on his fastball, which has ticked up into the mid 90's in relief, and his slider looks like a weapon in pro ball as well. He hasn't always been consistent though and his fringe-average command will likely keep him in the bullpen going forward, but if developed right, he could be a late inning weapon. Mason McRae, who in my opinion is one of the best evaluators out there and got plenty of looks at him attending VCU, does have a stern warning not to develop him as a sinkerballer, which he believes would be "catastrophic." Watson signed for $125,000.
17-513: OF Grant Richardson, Indiana. Unranked.
Grant Richardson hit a respectable .264/.335/.491 as a freshman in 2019, then got off to a scorching start with a .424/.453/.797 line in a brief 14 game stint in 2020. He earned looks at the back of the shortened draft, but returned to Indiana and hit .320/.397/.517 with seven home runs and a 35/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games this year. Richardson may remind some of a left handed Matt Gorski, who was a second round pick of the Pirates in 2019 out of Indiana, standing out for his athleticism in addition to his performance. The Indianapolis-area native is a plus runner who can impact games on both sides of the ball, and he has a knack for finding the barrel that has held up over longer stints in Big Ten play. With a chance for average power and contact to go along with that plus run tool, I'm a bit surprised he lasted this long, though he is somewhat raw for a player who turned 22 on day three of the draft. Richardson does have to refine his plate discipline a little, as he's very aggressive and has a tendency to chase, though that aggressiveness did not hurt his production in college ball at all. It's a similar story in the outfield, where he has the wheels and arm to stick in center, but he needs to refine his reads and routes. This is a fourth outfielder profile on the surface but I think he has what it takes to play full time one day. He signed for $125,000 and has singled and walked in six trips to the plate in the FCL.
No comments:
Post a Comment