The Brewers deployed a really interesting draft strategy, going with exclusively established performers early on in their first six picks. In doing so, they definitely leaned more on floor than ceiling, going the low-risk route and hoping to get a solid group of major leaguers rather than cashing the chips in for one star. The script flipped on day three, however, when they went after numerous high end prep talents they thought thought they might maybe could sign with leftover money from second rounder Russell Smith ($440,000 below slot) and ninth rounder Brannon Jordan ($107,400 below slot), among others. They couldn't quite reel in Roc Riggio, Hunter Hollan, or Will Rogers, but they did land Caden Vire, Quinton Low, and Jace Avina, significantly adding to the upside in their class. My favorite pick was pretty easily Sal Frelick in the first round, because I thought he was a legitimate top ten talent, while I also liked Alex Binelas in the third round and simply the fact that they were able to land the trio of Vire, Low, and Avina on day three.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
1-15: OF Sal Frelick, Boston College. My rank: #7.
I love this pick for the Brewers. Sal Frelick was legitimately the second best college position player in this draft in my opinion and as a Nationals fan, I would have been very happy if we took him four picks sooner at #11. He'll follow in the footsteps of Garrett Mitchell as an ultra-athletic power conference outfielder, though his skill set is a bit different. In a year where many college bats underwhelmed, Frelick got off to a red hot start and maintained it all season long, slashing .359/.443/.559 with six home runs and a 28/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games. He's a plus hitter who can adeptly manipulate the barrel to make contact with virtually anything thrown at him, whether that's velocity or offspeed or whether it's in the zone or out. At times, he's willing to sacrifice his "A" swing in order to get the barrel to the ball, which saps his power, but it also helped him strike out in just 12.3% of his plate appearances this spring against very good pitching. Undersized at 5'9", there's plenty of twitchy strength to project on so when he does get good pitches to hit, he can still take you deep and projects for at least 10-15 home runs per season. Once on base, the Boston-area native shows plus speed that enabled him to steal 38 bases in 102 career games at Boston College, and that also serves him on defense, where his hustle and all out style of play should make him a plus defender in center field. Frelick gets high marks for his work ethic and enthusiasm for the game, giving him a chance to become a fan favorite in Milwaukee. I really like this kid and I think he will maximize his skill set, with the ceiling of a Denard Span type but with more power. He signed for $4 million, which was about $110,000 above slot value, and is slashing .467/.529/.667 through four games in the ACL.
CBA-33: 2B Tyler Black, Wright State. My rank: #45.
Tyler Black has been a favorite of the Midwest area scouting community for a while now, and a strong 2021 season pushed him into the national spotlight. He was exceptional as a freshman at Wright State (.348/.465/.614) but never got a chance to catch his stride in his shortened sophomore season (.239/.340/.370), then put it all together with a massive junior season by slashing .383/.496/.683 with 13 home runs and a 25/39 strikeout to walk ratio. Though Wright State doesn't face the toughest in-conference competition as a member of the Horizon League, he doubled off of Kumar Rocker on Opening Day and picked up five hits (including three home runs) in nine at bats in the Knoxville regional against Duke and Tennessee. Black is a professional hitter through and through, showing elite plate discipline and feel for the barrel that enable him to draw a ton of walks (16.7% career rate) and rarely strike out (10.1%), boding well for his transition to pro baseball. Not nearly the athlete that Frelick is, Black still taps above average game power because he is so adept at choosing pitches and executing on them when he gets them. To me, it's a ceiling of 15-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, and although he's an average runner, he's a good baserunner that went eleven for twelve in stolen base attempts this spring. The Toronto native won't provide a ton of value defensively as an adequate second baseman, but the bat is plenty good enough to profile every day. Adding to Black's allure is age, as he's young for the class and didn't turn 21 until after the draft. He signed right at slot value for roughly $2.2 million.
2-51: LHP Russell Smith, Texas Christian. My rank: #202.
Okay, I'm not a huge fan of this pick, but we can still draw some positives. Russell Smith has been an extremely consistent performer at TCU for three years now, posting a 3.51 ERA and a 163/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 141 career innings, including marks of 3.83 and 101/20 in 82.1 innings this season. A massive, 6'9" lefty, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and tops out around 95, with the pitch playing up because of his feel for it. He can sink it when he needs to like a traditional tall pitcher, but unlike many others his size, he also puts nice ride on the pitch when he wants to, giving hitters multiple looks. The North Texas native adds a slider and a changeup, with both grading out as average based on pure movement but the latter playing up to at least above average again due to his feel for the pitch. With a clean, relatively low effort delivery, he pours in strikes and locates well within the zone, making him a pretty complete pitcher aside from the lack of a swing and miss breaking ball. The Brewers likely see him as a safe bet #4 starter whose feel for pitching will carry him through the minors relatively quickly, though he will turn 23 in September and was the oldest player drafted at the time he heard his name called in the second round. Smith signed for $1 million, which was roughly $440,000 below slot value and enabled the Brewers to reel in a couple bit overslot signings on day three.
3-86: 3B Alex Binelas, Louisville. My rank: #64.
I mentioned during Sal Frelick's review that many other top college bats underwhelmed this spring, and while I specifically had Alex Binelas (and quite a few others) in mind when I wrote that, the Brewers are getting really nice buy-low value here in the third round. A product of Oak Creek High School in the southern Milwaukee suburbs (hometown pick!), Binelas had an exceptional freshman year at Louisville by slashing .291/.383/.612 with 14 home runs and a 48/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, then injured his hand in the second game of his sophomore season and didn't get back on the field before the shutdown. 2021 began as a disaster, as he picked up just two hits in his first eight games and was still hitting just .145 in mid-March. He heated up later in the season and the end result was respectable: .256/.348/.621, 19 HR, 51/21 K/BB. However, it was not enough to recover his stock from that early season slump, which could be a blessing in disguise for the Brewers since they were able to get him in the third round. Binelas shows plus raw power from the left side, a product of a lightning quick left handed swing and tremendous strength that enables him to absolutely sting the ball with elite exit velocities to all fields. He's gotten to that power consistently in games aside from that slump, blasting 33 home runs in 111 games at Louisville and at one point homering in four straight against Clemson, Vanderbilt, and Duke in early May. He also had a three homer game against Clemson in the ACC tournament. The Wisconsinite's problem, however, lies in his plate discipline. He'll likely always be a streaky hitter that struggles with swing and miss, meaning there's a chance he's never more than a power hitting bench/platoon bat. A third baseman for much of his Louisville career, he always looked choppy over there and moved to first base in 2021. In the shifting era, it's unlikely he moves back over to the hot corner without some serious improvements, and he may be best served as an adequate corner outfielder. There's a high ceiling here if Binelas can be "on" more than he's "off," with the chance for Joey Gallo-type numbers. He signed for $700,000, which was $300 over slot value. Maybe he used that money to take his family out to a fancy dinner or something. Through four games in the ACL, he has three hits in eleven at bats in addition to four walks.
4-116: RHP Logan Henderson, McLennan JC [TX]. My rank: #124.
Here's an interesting one. The industry was pretty split on Logan Henderson, who ranked #105 on the BA 500 but just #234 on MLB Pipeline and #268 at Prospects Live. I was definitely in the optimistic boat, so I like this pick. He was absolute money for McLennan JC in Waco, Texas this spring, putting up a 1.66 ERA and a 169/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings, playing a leading role as the Highlanders won the JUCO World Series. The undersized 5'11" righty lacks much projection, but his combination of youth, pitchability, and now-stuff makes him a very intriguing prospect nonetheless. His fastball has ticked up into the low 90's lately, getting up to around 94-95 at its best, and its high spin rates make it play almost like an "invisiball." He adds a distinct slider and curveball, neither of which are true swing and miss pitches but which get the job done, and his best pitch is a plus changeup. Henderson commands the zone extremely well, and given that he only turned 19 in March, that's extra impressive. There may not be a ton of ceiling here but he has as good a chance as any teenager to work his way into a big league rotation. The Houston-area native signed for slot value at $497,500, but unlike Alex Binelas I guess he couldn't convince Milwaukee to round up.
5-147: SS Ethan Murray, Duke. My rank: #197.
Ethan Murray is simply a ballplayer who lacks a carrying tool, but does a lot of things well. He's a career .292/.392/.432 hitter at Duke who looked like his usual self in 2021, slashing .297/.397/.440 with three home runs and a 46/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. Murray has a high baseball IQ that has enabled him to be extremely consistent, managing the strike zone well and finding the barrel more often than not. Though he'll never be a big power threat, he does hit the ball hard and should continue to find holes and gaps, giving him plenty of extra base projection. There's a similar story on defense, where he makes all the routine plays at shortstop but lacks the athleticism to cut off balls deep in the hole and save runs. For that reason, the Charlottesville-area native has a pretty clear utility infield projection, someone who can tap 5-10 home runs per season and get on base but likely not earn any All Star appearances. If he does hit just enough to play every day, the glove would look really good at second base. He signed for $272,500, which was $95,900 below slot value, and has two hits in seven at bats so far in the ACL.
10-297: C Wes Clarke, South Carolina. My rank: #222.
The Brewers went for power to close out day two. Wes Clarke blasted eight home runs in his first six games in 2021 against Dayton, Winthrop, and Clemson, then kept mashing home runs all season long and finished with a .271/.428/.663 line, 23 home runs, and a 73/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. If you got back to 2020, he has 31 home runs in 73 games, and the 23 this year tied for the NCAA lead with Reds competitive balance pick and Florida State catcher Matheu Nelson. Clarke packs a ton of strength into his 6'2", 235 pound frame, consistently punishing mistake pitches while being perfectly willing to take his walks if pitchers don't come to him. That's the One Big Positive. The Lynchburg, Virginia-area native swings and misses a lot, and while he is battle tested against SEC pitching, pro ball might still be a bit of a transition for him. He was drafted as a catcher, but that might be a stretch and first base is the more likely scenario, where his well below average speed likely keeps him from being anything more than an average defender there. Clarke reminds me a little bit of a discount Aaron Sabato. He signed for $75,000, which was $70,500 below slot value, and has two hits in eight at bats (including a home run) so far in the ACL.
12-357: LHP Caden Vire, Skyview HS [WA]. Unranked.
The Brewers went a little crazy on day three, and their biggest bonus of the day went to Caden Vire. He's a complete and total wild card, one who might never make it past A ball but who could be the next best Brewers pitching prospect. The 6'6" lefty is rail thin, with a ton of room to add strength, and the fact that he doesn't even turn 18 until September bodes even better for his physical development. Vire has a ton of moving parts in his high effort delivery, which will likely need a complete overhaul, and it seriously impacts his command as he tends to sail pitches up and to his arm side or yank them at right handers' feet. The Portland-area native sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, just scraping 90, but he puts a lot of spin on the ball and figures to add significant velocity anyways. His slider requires projection as well but it comes with some late bite, missing plenty of bats when it's located. The Brewers have their work cut out for them and we shouldn't expect Vire in the big leagues any time soon, but if they get it right, he has a chance to be a big piece of their future rotation. Committed to Arizona State, he instead signed for $497,500, of which $372,500 counts against the Brewers' bonus pool.
14-417: OF Jace Avina, Spanish Springs HS [NV]. My rank: #230.
As with Caden Vire, the Brewers are hoping to strike gold with Jace Avina, an extremely talented prep bat who is unproven against better competition. He stands out for his athleticism around the diamond, with above average speed and a strong arm giving him a chance to play virtually any position. The glove might be a bit choppy for the infield and since the Brewers announced him as an outfielder, they may just stick him straight in the grass and let him develop there. At the plate, he's hit over power, which makes it extra difficult to project on him given his circumstances. Avina wasn't seen much on the showcase circuit and played his high school ball in the Reno area, where the competition isn't the greatest, so his strong hit tool is pretty untested. He does show a quick bat from the right side and hits the ball hard consistently, and if he adds a bit of loft to his relatively flat swing, he has a chance for average power. It's the kind of player that could make it to campus and quickly increase his stock when his performance doesn't drop off against better competition, and the Brewers believed that would have happened at Nevada so they are buying him out early. Avina signed for $255,900, of which $130,900 counts against the bonus pool.
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