This is more of a preliminary list of first basemen, as many current third basemen (Josh Jung, Kody Hoese, Drew Mendoza, Rece Hinds, etc.) could be forced across the diamond as pressure mounts on their glove-work. Once a player ends up at first, the pressure is immediately on the bat to perform because most of these guys aren't providing much value defensively. That said, there is a group of first basemen in this class that can really hit, and it's led by California's Andrew Vaughn, one of the best hitters in recent draft memory. Behind him, everyone else has questions about something, whether contact, power, or both, but all carry potent bats with high upside.
Tier I: Andrew Vaughn
The Cal slugger stands alone in the first tier. Andrew Vaughn is as good as it gets at the plate, following up his monster sophomore season (23 HR, .402/.531/.819, 18/44 K/BB) with a big junior season, slashing .374/.530/712 with 14 home runs and a 28/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 46 games (including .318/.465/.580 with five home runs in 24 games against a tough in-conference schedule). Vaughn is incredibly disciplined at the plate, walking just about twice as often as he strikes out and putting himself in a great position to handle higher level pitching. That helps him get to his big raw power often, as he has cracked 49 home runs over 154 games at Cal, slugging .690 along the way. Vaughn looks like a fairly safe bet to be a middle of the order masher, which should alleviate any concerns over his lack of defensive value. He figures to go either to the White Sox with the third pick or the Marlins with the fourth pick, with a small chance he falls to the Tigers at #5 or Padres at #6.
Tier II: Michael Busch, Logan Wyatt, Tyler Callihan
After Vaughn, we are unlikely to see another first baseman taken until the back half of the first round. There, three more bats come into play, though each has their share of question marks. UNC's Michael Busch followed up a big sophomore season (13 HR, .317/.465/.521, 30/55 K/BB) with a strong run through the Cape Cod League (6 HR, .322/.450/.567, 17/19 K/BB), then came out and slashed .285/.447/.543 with 12 home runs and a 34/50 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 51 games this season. Busch showcases big raw power with a keen eye at the plate, and that advanced plate discipline helped drive his performance on the Cape. Mechanically, he keeps his hands back well, but sometimes they look like they take a little bit too long to get going, which could lead to swing and miss concerns at the next level. Still, he has a very strong track record to stand on, and he could fit into the second half of the first round as a potential high on-base, home run-hitting producer, albeit with a bit more risk than Vaughn. Meanwhile, Louisville's Logan Wyatt has a fairly similar profile to Busch, showing a better present approach at the plate with a bit less power. After slashing .339/.490/.522 with six home runs and a 37/63 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, he hit well on the Cape (4 HR, .305/.458/.438, 24/29 K/BB) and has been strong during his junior season, slashing .304/.472/.508 with eight home runs and a 36/57 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. Wyatt, like Vaughn, has an exceptional feel for the strike zone that should have no problem playing up at the next level, and while his power has played closer to average at Louisville, he has started to add some loft to his swing and could his his 6'4" frame to eventually hit 20-30 home runs per season. Given that Busch looks on track to land in that range as well, I actually prefer Wyatt as a prospect and would draft him before his ACC rival. That looks unlikely to happen, though, and Wyatt probably fits somewhere in the comp round in the 30-40 range. Tyler Callihan, a high schooler from Jacksonville, is actually a third baseman at this point, but I include him here due to the lack of present-first basemen and the strong possibility that he is forced across the diamond. Callihan stands just 5'11", small for a corner infielder, but he has great feel for the barrel and consistently sprays line drives and extra base hits around the field. The South Carolina commit also generates a fair amount of loft and torque in his swing, giving him the chance to turn those doubles into home runs down the line, and he's a better contact hitter (relative to his age) than Busch and possibly Wyatt at this point. He also may be able to stick at third base, where there would be less pressure for him to develop power. Like Wyatt, he figures to go somewhere in the comp round or early second round.
Tier III: Spencer Jones, Michael Toglia, Spencer Brickhouse
The third tier of guys obviously come with their own set of questions, all showing the tools to be impact hitters at the next level but but also having holes in their profile. Southern California high schooler Spencer Jones has one of the more unique profiles in this class, as he is the top two-way player in the draft and could very realistically, even likely, be drafted as a pitcher. Additionally, he opened enough eyes over the summer to earn some first round buzz, but an elbow injury (not Tommy John) cost him his whole spring, and he's really all projection and not much track record at this point. Standing 6'7", he generates a lot of power from the left side and made pretty good contact over the summer, giving him a ton of upside at the plate if he were to give up hitting and focus solely on improving and getting to that power. However, without much of a track record, it may be difficult for teams to pay enough money to keep him away from his Vanderbilt commitment. It's hard to project where he'll be drafted, but he currently looks like a second rounder based on talent alone. Over at UCLA, Michael Toglia has been right in the middle of a Bruins lineup that has powered the team to the top of the college baseball world (so far), though his numbers are down a hair from his sophomore season. After slashing .336/.449/.588 with 11 home runs and a 60/48 strikeout to walk ratio in 2018, he's down to .303/.374/.585 with 11 home runs and a 51/20 strikeout to walk ratio through 49 games in 2019. He has a simple swing (from both sides of the plate) with some loft that should help him continue to produce at the next level, but he also lacks the strong plate discipline that has pushed Busch and Wyatt into first round consideration. That led to a more pedestrian .209/.323/.388 line with seven home runs on the Cape, though switch hitters do take longer to develop sometimes and Toglia also won't be 21 until August, making him one of the younger college players available. He looks like a second rounder at this point with the potential to hit 20-30 home runs in the majors with middling on-base percentages – a classic #5 hitter. Lastly, despite there being more draft buzz around his teammate Bryant Packard coming into the season, Spencer Brickhouse has led the East Carolina offense by slashing .333/.473/.648 with 12 home runs and a 36/37 strikeout to walk ratio through 46 games. Standing at 6'4", he uses a simple swing and quick wrists to drive the ball into the gaps and over fences, though his low and wide setup at the plate sometimes causes the bat path to get a little long. He has solid plate discipline working in his favor and he has produced in college ball, so he shout fit somewhere into rounds three through five.
Others: Andrew Daschbach, Jason Hodges, Henry Gargus, Garrett Frechette, Joe Naranjo
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