First 5 rounds: Jordan Groshans (1-12), Griffin Conine (2-52), Adam Kloffenstein (3-88), Sean Wymer (4-116), Christopher Bec (5-146)
Also notable: Joey Murray (8-236), Cal Stevenson (10-296), John Aiello (14-416), Andy McGuire (28-836)
Instead of focusing on upside or floor, the Blue Jays split the difference and grabbed a bunch of players early on who offered a good mix of both. I like their draft overall, and I think Jays fans should be happy with what they got here. Getting two guys from the same high school in the first three rounds is a nice bonus as well. However, third rounder Adam Kloffenstein's huge bonus (almost $1.8 million above slot) is going to make the bonus pool tight everywhere else and definitely affected their drafting strategy.
1-12: SS Jordan Groshans (my rank: 32)
This is a bit of a reach with the 12th overall pick, but since they saved $800,900 on his signing bonus, it's more excusable. For a high schooler, he offers a great mix of floor and upside, as his bat is already advanced and he has the ability to stick in the dirt. Though the bat is advanced for his age, the high schooler from outside of Houston will need some mechanical adjustments to add lift to his swing and thus power to his profile. Because he hit well against good pitching on the showcase circuit and already shows the ability to drive the ball to all fields, that shouldn't be too much of an issue. On defense, he probably won't stick at shortstop, but Toronto will give him every chance to try. He probably ends up at third base and hits 20 home runs per year with on-base percentages up around .350. Slot value was just over $4.2 million, but he signed for $3.4 million to save his team some money, which they put to his teammate in the third round.
2-52: OF Griffin Conine (my rank: 36)
Already having the sons of Vladimir Guerrero, Craig Biggio, and Dante Bichette playing together on their AA team in New Hampshire and getting fantastic results out of them, the Jays decided to add another ballplayer's kid in Griffin Conine, son of Jeff Conine. The younger Conine came into the spring with sky high expectations following a fantastic summer in the Cape Cod League (.329/.406/.537, 9 HR, 43/20 K/BB), but those high expectations may have gotten to him, as he changed his approach and struggled mightily during the first half of his junior season at Duke. His swing got long and he swung at too many pitches outside the zone, exacerbating his already present strikeout issues. However, he turned it around in the middle of the season, and his final line turned out to be pretty good: .286/.410/.608, 18 HR, 74/43 K/BB. The left handed power obviously stands out, as does the high walk rate at 15.5%. However, the strikeouts also stand out, as 26.6% is exceptionally high and it will cause issues in his transition to pro ball. The swing will have to be shortened and his approach will have to improve, but ultimately, the power, as well as the potential to be an average right fielder, stand out enough that I would definitely give him a shot. He's also young for a college junior, not turning 21 until July, so that's another bonus. Slot value is $1.35 million and he has not signed yet. Depending on how the money falls, the Jays may only be able to offer him an under-slot deal.
3-88: RHP Adam Kloffenstein (my rank: 38)
Groshans' high school teammate in Magnolia, Texas, Kloffenstein is a fantastic talent for the third round, though they did pay a first round price to get him. The 6'5" righty is durably built and should have no problems sticking in the rotation, though with that durable build comes less projection than the typical 6'5" high school arm. That's okay, because where he is at now is already really good. He can vary his fastball from a low 90's sinker to a mid 90's straight burner, and he can also change the shape of his breaking ball at will. It will probably develop into two pitches, a curve and a slider. The changeup is there as well, and it looks good at times. Combine that with good command and a late birthday (he turns 18 in August), and you have a safer bet than most high schoolers to stick in the rotation. As you can tell by my ranking, I think he's a borderline first round prospect, so getting him here is exciting. However, his $2.45 million signing bonus was nearly $1.8 million above slot, only $800,900 of which was saved on Groshans, so the Jays will have to save money elsewhere. They did already get $135,200 back on tenth rounder Cal Stevenson's under-slot deal, but there is more work to be done.
4-116: RHP Sean Wymer (my rank: 91)
I wasn't a big fan of Wymer to begin with this season, and when his shift from the TCU bullpen to the rotation produced underwhelming results, I basically wrote him off as a top 100 prospect. However, I'm intrigued just enough by his profile that I pushed him back into the top 100, and here is why. Wymer finished the season 6-3 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 15 games (10 starts), striking out 69 and walking 14 in 74 innings for the Horned Frogs. He throws his fastball in the low 90's and adds an overall average mix of a curveball, slider, and changeup. At 6'1", he lacks projectability, and I originally thought he belonged back in the bullpen. I do have a little bit of hope that he can start, as he has a durable build and good command, and I also get the feeling that he might just be getting used to starting, and with a full season under his belt and some pro coaching, he could take off in the near future and become a back-end arm in the rotation. If not, he was successful as a reliever for TCU as a sophomore (2.10 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 66/10 K/BB) and he can transition back there as a long reliever. I think he's good value in the fourth round. He has not signed yet, with his bonus pool being worth $478,600.
28-836: 1B Andy McGuire (unranked)
The Texas two way star has had a bit of a wild ride. I had the opportunity to practice alongside Andy in high school, as I was a sophomore on the JV team when he was widely being considered a top 100 prospect as an infielder for the 2013 draft. He was intent on attending Texas and slipped to the Rockies in the 36th round, didn't sign, then took the bumpiest of roads from there. In 22 games as a freshman in 2014, he slashed an abysmal .113/.210/.127, then switched to the mound full time as a sophomore in 2015, putting up a 5.25 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP over 13 appearances. In 2016, he transferred to USC Aiken in South Carolina, but transferred straight back to Texas and sat out the season due to NCAA transfer rules. After not making the Longhorns team in 2017, he got a shot as a fifth year senior in 2018 and made the most of it. In 40 games as a hitter, he slashed .263/.383/.500 with a pair of home runs and an 8/7 strikeout to walk ratio, and in 27 appearances as a reliever, he put up a 2.01 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 28/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 31 innings. The Blue Jays took him in the 28th round as an infielder, where he'll look to continue to resurrect his career. McGuire showed great plate discipline with that 8/7 strikeout to walk ratio (17%/14.9%), though in an admittedly small sample size, which is especially impressive considering his four year layoff between collegiate at bats. The talent is definitely there, and if you go back and look at MLB.com's 2013 top draft prospects list, you'll find him at number 62. He is a fantastic guy who has worked incredibly hard to be where he is today, and I wish him the best of luck with his pro career.
Others: 8th rounder Joey Murray is the latest in a long line of Kent State aces, finishing his junior season 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 141/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.2 innings. While the strikeout rate is high, he doesn't throw rockets, instead sitting in the upper 80's with his fastball. He gets his swings in misses on deception and movement, as his delivery is quirky and his curve and slider both have good movement. With his mediocre command, he likely ends up a reliever, but the deception as well as the velocity boost he'll get should help him climb the ladder. 10th rounder Cal Stevenson is a college performer from the University of Arizona, finishing up his senior season with a .293/.416/.397 slash line, a home run, and a 16/35 strikeout to walk ratio as the Wildcats' leadoff man. Despite being a senior, he's actually the age of a college junior, turning 22 in September. He'll never hit for any power, limiting his ceiling to that of a fourth outfielder, but he'll provide good defense and on-base abilities. His 7.1% strikeout rate was nice and low, and when you combine that with a very good 15.6% walk rate, you get a guy who should be able to handle pro pitching with ease. 14th rounder John Aiello might be a signability risk after coming off a down year at Wake Forest, but that's okay because it is the 14th round. He was a well regarded prospect out of high school in 2015, but chose to head to campus and had a huge sophomore season in 2017 by slashing .328/.417/.643 with 20 home runs and a 76/25 strikeout to walk ratio. However, he regressed to .231/.346/.389 with eight home runs while keeping that ugly 79/25 strikeout to walk ratio, so he's definitely a risk. If he improves his plate discipline and shows that 2018 was a fluke, this is a great pick in the middle of the draft.
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