First 5 rounds: Brady Singer (1-18), Jackson Kowar (1-33), Daniel Lynch (1-34), Kris Bubic (CBA-40), Jonathan Bowlan (2-58), Kyle Isbel (3-94), Eric Cole (4-122), Austin Cox (5-152)
Also notable: Zach Haake (6-182), Jackson Lueck (8-242)
The Royals had a very clear strategy here, taking college pitchers with each of their first five picks and waiting until their twelfth pick to take a high school player at all. Their farm system is bare bones empty right now, so they didn't have time to wait around for some high schoolers to develop; they took high schoolers with their first two picks in 2017 and junior college players with their next two. With five of the first 58 picks, you would hope they came away with a good draft, and while I don't like all of their picks, they definitely did a great job replenishing their farm system.
1-18: RHP Brady Singer (my rank: 2)
Brady Singer, long considered a favorite to go first overall until Casey Mize took over that position midway through the spring, had one of the most unexpected falls of this year's draft. The Florida Gators ace won the Dick Howser Trophy as the top player in college baseball this year, going 12-1 with a 2.30 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 107/21 strikeout to walk ratio in 101.2 innings in the SEC (heading into the College World Series), the toughest conference in college baseball. He's your classic top of the rotation prospect, bringing stuff, command, projectability, a track record, and makeup to the table. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's with plenty of run, and his slider can be a wipeout pitch at times. His changeup is advanced as well, and he commands it all with confidence. The 6'5" righty has plenty of room to grow and add good weight, and while his delivery can get a bit out of sync, his arm is very loose and he seems like less of an injury risk than most pitchers. He supposedly is a very hard worker, and anybody who has watched him play know he is a very tough competitor. The only question with Singer is his consistency, as he had some tough starts earlier in the season and his stuff has flattened out at times. I think that it's nothing pro coaching can't smooth out, and the Royals have to be very, very happy to get a talent like Singer with the 18th pick. He hasn't signed yet because he is still playing in the College World Series (I'm actually watching him on the mound against Texas Tech as I write this sentence), with slot value sitting at a little over $3.3 million for this pick.
1-33: RHP Jackson Kowar (my rank: 16)
Another pick, another 6'5" Florida Gator right hander who fell just a little farther than expected. Entering the College World Series, Kowar is 9-5 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 102/41 strikeout to walk ratio in 105.2 innings. Like Singer, he throws his fastball in the mid 90's, though it's his changeup that that sets him apart rather than his breaking ball, just dropping off before it gets to the plate. That curve is going to need some work, as it looks good at times but lacks the consistency to be a reliable out pitch in pro ball at this point. Like Singer, he's projectable and should be able to add more velocity to his fastball. Obviously, he's still pitching in the CWS, and slot value is just over $2.1 million.
1-34: LHP Daniel Lynch (my rank: 35)
Lynch put up two mediocre seasons at the University of Virginia in 2016 and 2017, not getting his ERA below 5.00 in either season, but something clicked for him on the Cape over the summer and he held it into the spring. On the Cape, he was 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 25/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 30.1 innings, and with UVA this year, he was 4-4 with a 3.96 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 105/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 88.2 innings. The numbers weren't excellent in Charlottesville, but his stuff looks miles better than it did during his first two seasons. His fastball is now up into the low 90's, and his curve, slider, and advanced changeup can keep hitters off balance. He commands it all very well, and as a 6'4" lefty with a smooth delivery, it's easy to see him adding velocity without sacrificing command. Apparently, the bump in his stuff came when he shed the typical UVA pitching style for his own, as UVA pitchers have a terrible track record. He looks like a back-end starter now, but don't underestimate him. He has already signed for just under $1.7 million, saving the Royals $369,200 for their bonus pool.
CBA-40: LHP Kris Bubic (my rank: 59)
I'm not a huge fan of this pick, but Bubic is a good player. The Stanford lefty finished up his junior season 8-1 with a 2.62 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 101/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 innings. He's not a power pitcher, throwing his fastball in the low 90's, and he's not projectable, standing at 6'3" with a stocky frame. Instead, he relies on pretty good command and a very good changeup with plenty of run and drop on it. The curveball is mediocre, but he mixes his pitches well enough to get the most out of them. The stuff played up on the Cape Cod League last summer, where he was 4-1 with a 1.65 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 41/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings, mostly due to his pitchability. Bubic is also young for the class, not turning 21 until August, so together it makes for a very nice second round profile, fitting in the 45-60 range for me. I personally view him a little bit more as a tweener, because he doesn't hide the ball well and his walk rate is just a bit high for a pitchability "high floor" type. His ceiling is that of a #3 or #4 starter but there is a decent shot he ends up in the bullpen, so in my opinion he's not the best value at the #40 pick. He signed for $1.6 million, which is $186,300 under slot.
2-58: RHP Jonathan Bowlan (unranked)
Bowlan is a 6'6" right hander out of the University of Memphis, finishing his junior season 2-9 with a 3.71 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 104/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 85 innings. Bowlan is a big guy, carrying 262 pounds on his towering frame, and he uses that size to generate a low 90's fastball that can bump into the mid 90's easily if he reaches back for more. His slider is also a very good secondary offering that helped him rack up all those strikeouts (including 18 in one game against a very strong South Florida lineup), and he has a changeup. His problem is consistency, and he also did not finish up the season well. His ERA sat at 2.75 entering his final two starts, but Tulane roughed him up for five runs and Wichita State tacked on seven, bumping his ERA up almost a run. He is a bit of a project for a college arm, especially one in the second round, but he has very high upside and could be a mid-rotation starter. The more likely landing spot, though, is in the bullpen, where he could sit in the mid 90's and use that sharp slider more effectively. He signed for $697,500, which is $470,800 below slot.
3-94: OF Kyle Isbel (my rank: 58)
Isbel, the Royals' sixth pick, is the first player they took that wasn't a college pitcher, and I'm a big fan of his, as you can tell by his ranking ahead of Bowlan and even Bubic. Isbel was the center fielder at UNLV, slashing .357/.441/.643 with 14 home runs and a 43/34 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games, admittedly in a hitter-friendly environment. His strikeout rate remained in line with his career norms at 15.3%, though his walk rate jumped to 12.1%, showing improved patience to go along with his average strikeout rate. He does a little bit of everything, showing some power to go along with that patience, good contact ability, speed, and good defense in the outfield, and I think the power plays up due to his whippy swing. The only question for him would be how much it plays up, considering he's 5'11" and on the skinnier side, and if he makes enough contact to make up for whatever power doesn't play up. The swing may have to be shortened if contact becomes a problem. Personally, I see a 20 homer bat that can get on base, steal double digit bases, and play good defense. That's a great grab in the third round, and he signed for just $592,300, which is $2,500 below slot.
Others: 4th rounder Eric Cole is out playing for Arkansas in the College World Series, slashing .329/.417/.550 with 14 home runs and a 43/37 strikeout to walk ratio against tough SEC pitching entering the CWS. He's a pretty similar player to Isbel, putting up slightly worse numbers in a better conference, playing the same position, and having a similar height and build. He's a little slower than Isbel and I don't think his swing is quite as projectable, showing less loft and a little more movement, so he's more likely to end up a fourth outfielder. 5th rounder Austin Cox comes from Mercer, where he was 7-4 with a 4.52 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 124/43 strikeout to walk ratio in 87.2 innings. He's a 6'3" lefty that throws his fastball in the low 90's with movement, and his curveball has some hard, late movement on it, helping him generate tons of strikeouts. He has a slider and a changeup as well, but those need work if he wants to remain a starter. His herky-jerky delivery has caused some command problems and made his stuff play down a little at Mercer, so getting him to throw strikes will be the first order of business for the Royals. 6th rounder Zach Haake entered the season with a chance to go in the top fifty picks after a great sophomore season at John A. Logan Community College in Illinois, but he struggled this year after transferring to Kentucky, finishing 2-4 with an 8.47 ERA, a 1.82 WHIP, and a 36/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 34 innings. The 6'4" righty is probably a reliever at the next level, where his stuff is electric, including a mid 90's fastball and a great slider. He often struggles to throw strikes though, which, like the case with Cox, causes his stuff to play down. He might already be a bust but the Royals are willing to wait it out and see if they can turn him around. 8th rounder Jackson Lueck is a well-known college performer, one who has mashed as a three year starter at Florida State. Unfortunately, he's trending in the wrong direction, as his slash lines have gotten worse from his freshman year (.379/.494/.576) to his sophomore year (.318/.405/.507) to his junior year (.245/.364/.476) while his BABIP, or pseudo-luck-factor, has uncoincidentally dropped like a rock (.495 to .377 to .255). He's not the best fielder out in the outfield, but he does have power, patience, and good contact ability, so when his BABIP bounces back, he should be able to hit his way at least into the upper minors. From there, we'll see, but he could end up bringing a helpful power bat to the major league team down the line.
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