2017 Draft Preview: Keston Hiura

2B/OF Keston Hiura (University of California-Irvine): 6', 185 lbs, born 8/4/1996.

Overview

Hit: 65. Power: 45. Run: 50. Throw: 40. Field: 45.

Keston Hiura, aside from having one of the cooler names in the draft, lives and dies by his hit tool. The good news, it's plus-plus and is likely the best in the class. He has a quick stroke that has helped him put up a tremendous .442/.567/.693 batting line for UC-Irvine in the Big West, which would be enough to give him top-ten consideration if there weren't so many question marks about his defense and health. He has exclusively been a DH this spring due to elbow issues, which is enough to knock him into the second half of the first round, but don't expect him to fall out of the top 25-30 picks.

Strengths
Hiura hits. Over 56 games for the Anteaters this year, he batted .442 with eight home runs, 24 doubles, and a triple, good for a .693 slugging percentage. After walking 17 and 25 times in his freshman and sophomore seasons in 2015 and 2016 (6.5% and 10.3% of his plate appearances), he has upped his patience significantly in 2017, walking 50 times, or 19.2% of his plate appearances. He has improved a quick right handed stroke, one that could get sweepy early in his career but is more linear now. He has lightning quick hands, which helps his barrel find the ball with great consistency and should help his hitting ability play up. Hiura also won't turn 21 until August, making him one of the younger college juniors in this year's crop.

Weaknesses
Hiura lacks a defensive home. He's adequate at second base, but he won't impress anybody with his below average range and arm. Many scouts foresee a move to left field, which would put more pressure on his (albeit excellent) bat, where he would still be a below average defender. Scouts also haven't been able to assess the chances of that move this year because of an elbow injury that has forced him into the DH role for the entirety of the season, one which many scouts believe could need Tommy John surgery. Additionally, one minor knock on his hitting is his 14.6% strikeout rate this season (38 in 261 PA's), which isn't atrocious but is a little high for the draft's best contact hitter, especially one that plays in the Big West rather than the SEC or ACC. It is an improvement from last year's 18.1% rate and his freshman year's 15.6% rate. Hiura is also unlikely to develop more than average power, but his game is in the gaps anyways.

MLB Comp
I honestly see a little bit of Daniel Murphy in Hiura. Though Murphy hits left handed and Hiura hits righty, there are a lot of similarities. Both come from mid-major schools (Jacksonville University for Murphy), and both are decent defenders at second base who rely on hitting for their value, specifically contact. While Murphy has added more power to his game recently via adding loft, both hitters show quick hands and an innate ability to get the barrel to the ball no matter where it is in the zone for loud contact. To me, if you disregard Murphy's recent power breakout, I think Hiura could put up similar numbers to what the Nationals' second baseman did during his Mets tenure.