Major Additions: Aroldis Chapman, Matt Holliday, Chris Carter
Major Losses: Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi
Strengths: Young Arms, Bullpen
Weaknesses: Offensive Core, Offensive Stability
Potential Breakout Stars: The Whole Bullpen, Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Chad Green, Luis Cessa, Clint Frazier
The very first thing that jumps off the page with the Yankees is their plethora of young arms, especially in the bullpen. Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, and Tyler Clippard will form a very strong back of the bullpen, but it seems that all of their mid-level pitching prospects are ready to step up right now. Dietrich Enns (age 25), Johnny Barbato (24), Ben Heller (25), Jonathan Holder (23), and Chasen Shreve (26) all appear ready to make an immediate impact, and even if some falter, there is so much depth here that they can just call on the next guy. The rotation starts off great with Masahiro Tanaka, but there are a lot of question marks after that. Michael Pineda and C.C. Sabathia are talented but Pineda has never shown any consistency and Sabathia is getting up there in age. Luis Severino was excellent in 2015 (2.89 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), but struggled in 2016 (5.83 ERA, 1.45 WHIP), and while he has all the talent in the world, he is far from a proven commodity. What the lack in certainty, though, they make up for in depth. Chad Green was solid in his 2016 debut (4.73 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), and a breakout in 2017 would not be wholly surprising. There's swingman Adam Warren, youngster Brian Mitchell, and the very intriguing Luis Cessa (4.35 ERA, 1.11 WHIP). Cessa walked just 14 batters in 70.1 innings in 2016, and if he can find a way to miss more bats, he could do great things for the Bombers. The offense could go in any number of directions. They have the pieces, but most of them have question marks attached. There's the aging sluggers, Matt Holliday (age 37) and Chase Headley (32), the aging speedsters, Brett Gardner (33) and Jacoby Ellsbury (33), the unproven young bats, Gary Sanchez (24), Aaron Judge (24), and Greg Bird (24), the two "you get what you got's," Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius, and then there's Chris Carter. That's a lot of assertion and not a lot to back it up, so let's break it down. Castro and Gregorius are the only "sure things" in the Yankees lineup, meaning we more or less know what we're getting. He's typically been a one to three win player (according to Fangraphs) throughout his career, worth 1.1 fWAR last season. This year, it's a pretty safe bet that he'll be worth about 1-2 wins, meaning he'll be a slightly below average regular. Didi Gregorius' power breakout was for real last season, as Statcast batted ball data from Baseball Savant showed clear, across the board increases in average exit velocity, distance, and barrels (Statcast stat for the hardest hit balls) from 2015 to 2016, and he should be able to repeat in 2017. Now, four projected Yankees starting position players are 32 or older. Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury are both known for their speed, but they are likely to trend down in that department as they continue to age. Chase Headley and Matt Holliday are known more for their power, and while Headley may not see too much of a decline in his age 32 season, 37 year old Matt Holliday is far from a sure thing, both in production and simply staying on the field. He'll split time at DH with Chris Carter, who has as much raw power as anybody in baseball (except for Giancarlo Stanton) but who has shown a complete inability to actually hit the baseball. Carter will also split time at first base with Greg Bird, who slashed .261/.343/.529 in an excellent rookie season in 2015 but who missed all of 2016 after shoulder surgery. Gary Sanchez was downright unbelievable last season (.299/.376/.657), but it will be pretty much impossible for him to keep that up over a full season in 2017, especially after he registered just one hit in his final eight games in 2016 and hit just .222 in the month of September. If I were to try to predict the future, I'd wager that he'll have ups and downs but will ultimately put up a respectable season, something similar to or slightly better than the numbers that departing catcher Brian McCann put up. 6'7" Aaron Judge, known for his huge power and frequently compared to Giancarlo Stanton, has question marks as big as he is. He has always struck out in large quantities, and high strikeout levels in the minor leagues are often a warning sign of players who struggle to transition to the majors. Stanton, who represents the best case scenario, had similar strikeout numbers but was also ahead of Judge on the age curve, playing at levels younger than when Judge was there. Also, don't look now, but top prospects Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier could be up in the majors by the end of the season. Overall, this offense has question marks all over the place, but if all or most players reach their realistic best case scenarios, the Yankees will contend. They have too much depth on the mound, even though they lack in impact talent aside from Tanaka, Chapman, and Betances, to be a liability there.
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