For a long time, the Dodgers were linked to Twins' second baseman Brian Dozier. Instead, they acquired Logan Forsythe from the Rays in exchange for prospect Jose De Leon. Forsythe will take over at second base, which was originally set to be manned by Enrique Hernandez, who hit just .190 last year. Forsythe isn't the same player as Dozier, but if you compare Dozier's inconsistent career numbers with what Forsythe has done in the past two seasons, you find that Forsythe isn't that much worse of a player than Dozier, despite the difference in prospect cost in a potential trade. Forsythe was mostly a backup in the early part of his career from 2011-2014, and he played like one, but 2015 and 2016 have been different stories. In 2015, he hit .281 with 17 home runs and 33 doubles over 153 games for the Rays, then he hit .264 with 20 home runs and 24 doubles over 127 games in 2016. According to Baseball Reference, he has been worth 8.4 WAR (wins above replacement) over the past two seasons, which is not far below Dozier's 8.9 and is significantly higher than Enrique Hernandez's 1.5 over the same span. Of course, Dozier's 6.5 WAR in 2016 alone dwarfs Forsythe's 3.4 and Hernandez's 0.1, but that is what makes Dozier's price go up. Forsythe is owed $7 million in 2017, and the Dodgers will hold an $8.5 million option for 2018. For his career, the former Arkansas Razorback has 55 home runs, 97 doubles, 34 stolen bases, and a .255 average over 618 games.
Meanwhile, the Rays got a pretty special arm in return for their second baseman. Jose De Leon is just 24 years old, but he will have every chance to crack the rotation in 2017, and should be a staple for a long time. With Drew Smyly being traded to the Mariners, Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi hold the only guaranteed spots, though Blake Snell is very likely to snag the third spot. That leaves veteran Alex Cobb, Matt Andriese, prospects Jacob Faria and Jaime Schultz, and the rookie De Leon to compete for the final two spots. Cobb was very good in 2014 (10-9, 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP), but missed all of 2015 with Tommy John surgery and struggled in limited action in 2016 (1-2, 8.59 ERA, 1.77 WHIP). Andriese put up so-so results as a starter in 2016 (7-7, 4.80 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), but was much better in ten relief appearances (2.38 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 19/3 K/BB). That is where De Leon comes in. A 24th round pick out of Southern University in Baton Rouge in 2013, he has shot up prospect charts with his mid-90's fastball and tough changeup, seemingly striking out every batter he faced as he rose through the minors. In fact, in addition to his 3.35 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over four minor league seasons, he has struck out 446 batters in 330.2 innings while walking just 99. Reaching the majors for the first time in 2016, he had some difficulty but held his own in a small sample size, going 2-0 with a 6.35 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP over four starts. It may be that Snell, Cobb, and Andriese take the three remaining rotation spots, but even if he doesn't make the rotation out of spring training, someone's bound to get injured or become ineffective, and De Leon will be right there to claim the spot. The incumbents better watch out, because behind De Leon, Jaime Schultz, Jacob Faria, Chih-Wei Hu, Brent Honeywell, Taylor Guerrieri, and Ryan Yarbrough all showed well at AA, AAA, or both last season, and could be knocking on the door soon.
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