Sunday, October 16, 2022

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at the ACC

2022 draftees: 57. Top school: Georgia Tech (8)
2022 preseason writeup (published 10/2/2021)

Top 2022 draftees:
1-9, Royals: OF Gavin Cross (Virginia Tech)
1-11, Mets: C Kevin Parada (Georgia Tech)
2-40, Dodgers: C Dalton Rushing (Louisville)
2-42, Orioles: 3B Max Wagner (Clemson)
2-54, Guardians: LHP Parker Messick (Florida State)
CBB-68, Twins: SS Tanner Schobel (Virginia Tech)
CBB-70, Rays: SS Chandler Simpson (Georgia Tech)

The ACC had yet another year of 50+ draftees, dominated by position players as the league was known around college baseball for its loaded lineups. Each of the first four players drafted and six of the first seven were position players, led by first rounders Gavin Cross of Virginia Tech and Kevin Parada of Georgia Tech. The league looks perhaps even deeper this year, with close to a dozen players with a realistic chance to play their way into the first round conversation quickly in 2023. Obviously we won't see that many drafted there, but every player on this list could realistically be one of those names called in the first round come July 2023. Like last year, it's a hitter-heavy list, something that is becoming part of the ACC's brand. Let's look through the top dozen prospects in the conference.

1. OF Travis Honeyman, Boston College.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 190 lbs. Born 10/2/2001. Hometown: Massapequa, NY.
2022: 6 HR, .329/.402/.506, 5 SB, 16/11 K/BB in 41 games.
Boston College hasn't seen much team success lately with just one winning season out of the past six, but they have produced plenty of high end draft prospects including Justin Dunn, Cody Morissette, Luke Gold, Sal Frelick, the latter of whom shares some similarities to Travis Honeyman. Frelick, the fifteenth overall pick in 2021, was the school's highest drafted player since fourth overall pick Tony Sanchez in 2009, and Honeyman has a chance to beat Frelick this year. After picking up one (1) hit as a freshman in 2021, he broke out as one of the team's best hitters in 2022 and and boosted his stock further with an excellent run through the Cape Cod League, where he slashed .289/.400/.530 with four home runs in 24 games. He makes a ton of contact from the right side, striking out just 8.7% of the time at BC in 2022 and a still-solid 18.2% on the Cape, with exceptional adjustability in his swing and the ability to get to balls all over the zone. He's similar to Frelick in that sense, but at 6'2", his long arms and extremely quick hands help him produce high exit velocities and above average pull side power in games. It's hard to bust him in, as he can pull those hands in and turn on the ball with the best of them, but he has no problem going the other way either and the power will start to come that way as he gets stronger. The Long Island native is not quite as fast as Frelick and is not guaranteed to stick in center field, but he may hit for more impact while maintaining nearly as high an on-base percentage, though to this point he makes too much contact early in counts to draw high numbers of walks. Honeyman has plenty of upside, with the chance to hit 20+ home runs a year with high, batting average-driven on-base percentages, potentially from center field.

2. OF Jack Hurley, Virginia Tech.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6', 185 lbs. Born 3/13/2002. Hometown: Boalsburg, PA.
2022: 14 HR, .375/.452/.664, 10 SB, 51/32 K/BB in 58 games.
Jack Hurley might be the most exciting player in the ACC. An immediate contributor as a freshman in 2021, he broke out as one of the best hitters in arguably the best lineup in college baseball in 2022, slashing an incredible .375/.452/.664 in 58 games. He brings a high energy style of play to the ballpark, taking big swings in the box, searching for extra bases where he can find them, and running full speed into the outfield wall if need be. He's not huge at six feet tall, but he generates a ton of torque with those big swings and taps above average power consistently in games, naturally lifting and driving the ball to all fields. He previously struggled with swing and miss, striking out 30.8% as a freshman, but he dropped that rate to 18.8% in 2022 and hopes to continue trending in the right direction in 2023. He hammers fastballs and is improving against offspeed stuff, so that will be his primary focus in 2023. Defensively, he payed left field last year while Gavin Cross manned center, but he's plenty fast enough to slide over to center this year and should be able to stick there in pro ball as well. It's a profile littered with 55's and if he can continue to improve against offspeed stuff, he has a chance to become an impact player at the major league level that provides value in a multitude of ways.

3. 3B Yohandy Morales, Miami.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 210 lbs. Born 10/9/2001. Hometown: Miami, FL.
2022: 18 HR, .329/.411/.650, 6 SB, 60/34 K/BB in 60 games.
Yohandy Morales has been a priority follow for scouts down in South Florida for a while now. A big name in the 2020 high school class, he got off to a hot start before the COVID shutdown and pushed his name into top three rounds consideration, but ultimately stayed home to attend Miami. Morales burst onto the scene in Coral Gables by slashing .284/.343/.531 with eleven home runs as a freshman, then improved each number in his triple slash this past spring before a strong showing with the US Collegiate National Team over the summer. First and foremost, Morales stands out for his power. He's a big, lanky guy at 6'4", packing plenty of lean strength onto that frame that helps him put great leverage on the ball. Content with more of a line drive approach for now, he generates big exit velocities and can easily lift the ball out of the park when he wants to, and even his mishits can cause problems for pitchers. To this point, he has been a bit aggressive at the plate and has struck out north of 20% of the time in both of his collegiate seasons, so that will be something to watch this coming spring. If he can manage that and show more discipline in 2023, it's an easy first round bat that could end up with 55 hit, 60 power. Additionally, he's a solid athlete that has showed well at third base, making for a very well-rounded profile that will be very intriguing early in the draft. By cutting that strikeout rate just a little, he could easily pass Honeyman and Hurley on this list and be the first ACC player drafted.

4. 3B Brock Wilken, Wake Forest.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 225 lbs. Born 6/17/2002. Hometown: Valrico, FL.
2022: 23 HR, .272/.362/.602, 0 SB, 71/34 K/BB in 60 games.
In a conference full of power bats, you might not find one more prodigious than Brock Wilken. The Tampa-area product has already blasted 40 home runs over two years at Wake Forest, plus thirteen more over two Cape seasons. He really cemented himself as a top prospect in this class with a fantastic run through the Cape Cod League in 2021, just as he was turning 19 years old, and when you include his more ordinary 2022 Cape season he hit .271/.400/.471 over 73 games. So long story short, Wilken has faced a huge sample of high level pitching and has consistently performed for a long time now. While Yohandy Morales is leaner, Wilken is a barrel chested 6'4" that looks like he would fit right in for Dave Clawson on the gridiron. He deploys that copious strength into big right handed swings, and the ball just jumps off his bat like few in college baseball. He can easily put it out to any field with plus power and does plenty of damage on mishits as well, and if he makes enough contact, he could profile for thirty-plus home runs a year at the major league level. Wilken is a patient hitter that works counts well, spoiling tough pitches until he gets a good one to hit, though he does get into trouble occasionally in those deep counts and his 24.2% strikeout rate last spring was a bit higher than you'd like to see. He'll probably always struggle with swing and miss, but that grinder mentality in the box will serve him well and he has done nothing but hit for a very long time now. He also possesses a plus arm that could give him a shot at third base, though he'll need to get more agile to stick there long term. At his ceiling, he could be a similar player to Pete Alonso.

5. RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 200 lbs. Born 3/8/2002. Hometown: Albemarle, NC.
2022: 11-3, 3.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 105/26 K/BB in 99.1 innings.
It's all about the bats in this conference, but Rhett Lowder has so far emerged as the best arm in the prestigious league. He jumped right into the rotation as a freshman and broke out as a sophomore, striking out over one hundred batters along the way. There is no one plus attribute here, but Lowder does a little bit of everything well. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can get up to 97 at his best, while his slider and changeup both look consistently above average to give him three big league pitches. He commands everything well to both sides of the plate, effectively navigating the loaded lineups of the ACC by executing where he needed to. That combination of pitchability and stuff is hard to find at times, and the North Carolina native also comes with some projection in a skinny 6'2" frame. Most pitchers nowadays like to identify as a Max Scherzer-esque "psychopath" or a Landon Sims-like "bulldog" on the mound, but Lowder doesn't really fit either of those descriptions. An artist in his spare time (literally, he creates oil paintings), he's quiet and composed on the mound and doesn't let much rattle him. It's the full package as a starting pitcher, one that has a very good chance to wind up in the middle of a big league rotation.

6. RHP Teddy McGraw, Wake Forest.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 10/30/2001. Hometown: Oneonta, NY.
2022: 5-2, 4.10 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 67/38 K/BB in 70.2 innings.
We'll round out the Wake Forest section of this list with Teddy McGraw, another 6'2" righty in the Demon Deacon rotation but one who gets things done a little differently than Rhett Lowder. While Lowder has about as well-rounded a profile as you're going to get, McGraw is much more of a loud stuff guy who is still refining his overall feel for pitching and one who hopes to truly break out in 2023. While the ACC numbers aren't quite there (and Wake Forest's hitter-friendly David F. Couch Ballpark doesn't do him any favors), like Brock Wilken he has thrived over two summers in the Cape Cod League, where he has a combined 3.20 ERA and a 47/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 innings. He can touch 98 early in starts and can still hold low 90's velocity towards the end, with heavy running and sinking action that makes it tough to square up. He's recently worked to add a four seam fastball that can ride away from his more natural two seam plane, giving hitters another look. McGraw's best pitch is a plus slider with nasty hard snap that misses a ton of bats, and he's working on a changeup that flashes above average as well. He moves well on the mound with an athletic delivery and a low release, but to this point his fringy command has held him back from becoming the impact arm Wake Forest wants him to be. Controlling at bats and setting himself up with better counts will be on the to do list in 2023, and if he can, there's no reason he shouldn't go in the first round. If his command plateaus and he continues to wind up in hitters' counts, he may be a reliever at the next level and the second round would make more sense.

7. 3B Jake Gelof, Virginia.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 2/25/2002. Hometown: Rehoboth Beach, DE.
2022: 21 HR, .377/.477/.764, 3 SB, 49/41 K/BB in 58 games.
Zack Gelof hit .316/.396/.478 with 16 home runs over a three year career at UVA, then went to the A's in the second round of the 2021 draft. Two years later, his brother Jake has a chance to beat his draft position, now that he's coming off a monster sophomore season in which he set the UVA school record for RBI (81) and finished near the top of the school leaderboards in multiple other stats. He loves to turn on the ball and can do so virtually anywhere in the zone, not having to wait for that middle-in fastball to crank one. ACC pitching did not faze him one bit, as he hammered virtually everything thrown at him and had opposing managers circling his name in the lineup. Despite the big numbers, he wasn't always the most consistent hitter and lost his approach at times, but those highest on the Delaware native may be willing to write that off as an underclassman just being a young hitter. There is also some swing and miss present in his game, as he ran an 18.7% strikeout rate this past spring, but he's pretty patient too and overall it's not a major concern. He has the look of a 25+ home run hitter with solid on-base percentages that can hit in the middle of a major league lineup if everything breaks right and he gets more consistent at the plate. He's also a solid defender at third base that should be able to stick there, providing additional value all around. There are many similarities to Yohandy Morales on this list, though Morales is bigger, more athletic, and had a better summer.

8. C Kyle Teel, Virginia.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 190 lbs. Born 2/15/2002. Hometown: Mahwah, NJ.
2022: 6 HR, .276/.402/.439, 3 SB, 36/41 K/BB in 58 games.
Kyle Teel didn't have quite as loud a season in 2022 as his teammate Jake Gelof, but his lengthy track record keeps them neck and neck in terms of prospect status. Teel had a chance to go in the top three rounds of the 2020 draft out of a New Jersey high school, but pulled his name before the event because he was dead set on Charlottesville. He made an immediate impact as a freshman, slashing .335/.416/.526 with nine home runs in 2021, but didn't hit for quite as much impact in 2022 as he dropped to .276/.402/.439 and he struggled in 14 games between the Collegiate National Team and the Cape Cod League (.146/.271/.195). Teel is a very disciplined hitter that works counts effectively, something you might expect from a seasoned ACC catcher, and that helps him continue to get on base consistently and provide value even when his bat goes cold. His load can get rigid as he stabs the handle towards his back foot a bit before exploding towards the ball, messing with his timing occasionally. Still, is strong pitch selection helps him keep the swing and miss to a minimum despite the moving parts in his swing, and when it's all clicking, he's a true impact hitter as we saw during that freshman season. Behind the plate, he's more athletic than most catchers and has shown the ability to handle multiple other positions around the diamond. His pure glovework is still a work in progress but that athleticism gives him a nice baseline and is plenty enough to give scouts confidence he'll eventually develop into at least an average defender back there. Left handed hitting catchers that can hit and field at a high level are hard to find, so if he can recapture his 2021 form while continuing to make strides on defense, he could go early in the first round.

9. SS Alex Mooney, Duke.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 7/6/2002. Hometown: Rochester Hills, MI.
2022: 3 HR, .292/.393/.392, 12 SB, 41/27 K/BB in 54 games.
Alex Mooney continues the trend on this list of players who earned considerable draft interest out of high school, and in this case he could well have heard his name in the top fifty picks. One of the top incoming recruits in the entire country, he jumped into the everyday lineup immediately as a freshman and ended up having a solid, if unspectacular, first season in Durham. He wasted no time getting acclimated to ACC pitching, posting nearly a .400 on-base percentage and running just a 16.7% strikeout rate as a 19 year old, but he also wound up slugging below .400 as he only managed fourteen extra base hits in 54 games. The Detroit-area native posted similar numbers over the summer in the Cape Cod League (.263/.330/.389), but it's worth noting that he bumped his ISO from .100 to .126 and went from three home runs in 54 games to five home runs in 46 games despite transitioning to wood bats and facing better pitching. Mooney brings a great combination of strength, athleticism, and baseball IQ to the diamond, and it's important to remember this was only his first season in college ball. He's old for a sophomore and will turn 21 before the draft, though, so taking that next step in 2023 will be very important if he wants to go in the top two rounds. Personally, I think he will. He has very quiet hands in the box and uses them to guide the barrel to different parts of the zone with precision, recognizing pitches well and making adjustments in the box. It's an above average hit tool for now that has a chance to become plus, and as he continues to fill out his 6'1" frame, hopefully he can tap average power as well. Defensively, his athleticism, strong internal clock, and feel for the infield give him every shot to stick at shortstop, though a more explosive athlete could push him to second or third base depending on what system he ends up in. This is a profile filled with average or better tools that could all tick up to 55 or better if he continues to progress.

10. IF LuJames Groover, North Carolina State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 4/16/2002. Hometown: Morrow, GA.
2022: 10 HR, .364/.440/.568, 4 SB, 44/28 K/BB in 57 games.
There is a saying that hitters hit, and that certainly applies to LuJames Groover. He began his career at Charlotte but transferred after one season to NC State, where he was one of their best hitters and figures to be the centerpiece in the Wolfpack lineup now with Tommy White off to LSU. Groover is a professional hitter through and through, one who makes contact as consistently and with as much authority as anybody in the conference. He struck out just 16.1% of the time in 2022 while producing high exit velocities, meaning lots of scorching grounders and screaming line drives. That's the Atlanta-area product's approach for now, with a flat swing geared towards those hard line drives that helped him hit .364 at NC State and previously .351 as a freshman at Charlotte. Though he doesn't have much loft in his right handed swing, he can turn on the ball when he needs to and finds such a high volume of barrels that he did run into ten home runs last year, and he has a chance at above average power in pro ball if he decides to make that a larger part of his game. Given his innate feel for hitting, he should be able to if he wants to. Defensively, Groover is more of a question mark. He appeared at first base, second base, and both corner outfield spots for NC State last year and hasn't really turned heads at any of them, so barring positive developments on that front, the pressure will be on his bat. He's a decent athlete that can handle himself around the diamond, but his best case scenario is as a bat-first second baseman and there's a chance he ends up at first base for good.

11. RHP Jackson Baumeister, Florida State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 225 lbs. Born 7/10/2002. Hometown: Jacksonville, FL.
2022: 1-2, 5.60 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 41/20 K/BB in 27.1 innings.
Jackson Baumeister is yet another big name high school prospect who made it to campus. He had a chance to go in the top three rounds in 2021 and ended up in Tallahassee instead, but unlike Alex Mooney, he wasn't an immediate contributor. Rather, he got buried in an FSU pitching staff that proved to be the deepest in the conference, making seventeen relief appearances and two late-season midweek starts, but he'll have a chance to step into a much larger role in 2023 after the entire weekend rotation left either for pro ball or the transfer portal. Baumeister spent his summer on the Cape and threw nearly as many innings there (21) as he did all season long at FSU (27.1), and showed well with a 4.28 ERA and a 30/10 strikeout to walk ratio. He's an excellent athlete that gets down the mound well with a fluid delivery, getting good extension out front with a low release point that helps his stuff play up. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and tops out around 96 with riding action, while a sharp downer curveball has a chance to be his best pitch if he can add a little more power. The Jacksonville native is also working on an improving changeup, though it's still inconsistent to this point and he can slow his arm down at times. Below average command kept him from clawing through that FSU depth chart and earning innings last year, but given his athleticism and repeatable delivery, he has every chance to develop average command in time. If he does, he's a legitimate starting pitching prospect, but he'll need to build up some track record in Tallahassee this year to crack the top two rounds.

12. RHP Carson Montgomery, Florida State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 205 lbs. Born 8/13/2002. Hometown: Windermere, FL.
2022: 4-1, 5.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 62/23 K/BB in 54 innings.
For all the fanfare that followed Jackson Baumeister to Tallahassee, Carson Montgomery was an even bigger prospect as a prep that ranked as the top prospect on my list to reach campus (though #'s 2 and 4, Kevin Parada and Dylan Crews, have since surpassed him in a big way), though like Baumeister, he's yet to break out. Though Montgomery graduated in 2020 and Baumeister was a 2021, he's actually more than a month younger as he's extremely young for his class and Baumeister is very old, interestingly enough. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 98, though it plays down a touch and catches a lot of barrels in the zone because of its generic movement. By far his best pitch is a plus slider with huge spin rates that misses a ton of bats, and pro teams will likely have him pitch off of it in the minors. He also flips in an average changeup, rounding out a big league three pitch arsenal. He's athletic on the mound but does have an interesting double leg lift that impacts his break towards the plate, and to this point his control is well ahead of his command. For most pitchers who can hit 98 and add a nasty breaking ball, that's not so much of an issue anymore, but given Montgomery's fastball's tendency to find more barrels than it misses, it's certainly important for him. If he can get better about locating his prodigious stuff or finds a way to get more movement on his fastball, he can be an impact starting pitcher at the big league level. Given his youth, not turning 21 until after the draft, there's a solid chance that happens.

Honorable Mentions
Just Missed: Catcher Cooper Ingle (Clemson) was the first player off the list after slashing .351/.449/.526 with eight home runs for the Tigers last year and is one of my favorite players in the conference. He utilizes a short, slasher-type swing focused on lashing line drives around the field, but he can turn on one if he needs to and could be a fun prospect to develop. An interesting .252/.401/.319 run through the Cape Cod League with more walks (30) than strikeouts (28) highlighted his exceptional feel for hitting and also called into question somewhat his ability to create impact with wood bats.
Post-Hype: Yohandy Morales wasn't the only big name to reach Miami's campus following the 2020 draft, but Alejandro Rosario hasn't quite lived up to expectations with a 6.09 ERA and a strikeout rate below 20% over two years in Coral Gables. He began to turn that around with a strong, albeit brief stint on the Cape (1.74 ERA, 13/1 K/BB) and has a chance to finally put it together this spring. Armed with a fastball that can hit 99 and an improving slider/splitter combo, he's one of the better athletes in the conference and could make for a fun ball of clay for whoever drafts him.
Top Transfer: The transfer portal taketh away from NC State with Tommy White heading to LSU, but it also giveth as the Wolfpack pulled Old Dominion star Carter Trice across the border to Raleigh. Trice was a two year performer for the Monarchs, slashing .324/.411/.620 with 31 home runs and 26 stolen bases over 111 games, bringing a dynamic skill set to NC State that should translate to the ACC. Undersized at 5'11", he has big power from the right side and above average speed. He has struggled with swing and miss throughout his career but has shown well over two summers on the Cape (.262/.348/.454).
Deep Sleeper: Wake Forest is pulling in a very interesting young lefty named Sean Sullivan, who posted a 4.45 ERA and a 78/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings at Northwestern in 2022. He draws many similarities to Miami's (now the Rockies') Carson Palmquist as a true sidearm lefty that gets by more on command than stuff, sitting around 90 with his fastball while adding a sweeping slider and a plus changeup. I'm very excited to see what happens at Wake Forest's pitching lab over the offseason and he could be primed for a big time breakout.

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