Rockies Sign Wade Davis

Wade Davis: 4-2, 2.30 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 79/28 K/BB, 58.2 IP
Three Years, $52 million, $15 million vesting/mutual option for 2021

After re-signing Jake McGee and adding Bryan Shaw, the Rockies made their biggest move yet with the bullpen by adding Wade Davis to be the closer to replace Greg Holland, signing him for three years and $52 million. That contract, on a per-year basis, is the most expensive contract ever for a reliever, just barely eclipsing Aroldis Chapman's five year, $86 million deal from last offseason ($17.3 million to $17.2 million). At this point, with the likes of Chris Rusin, Mike Dunn, Adam Ottavino, and Scott Oberg also in the bullpen, the Rockies will have a very strong relief corps in 2018 to match a very strong rotation led by Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, and Chad Bettis, among others. This combination of a deep rotation and bullpen gives Colorado perhaps the best pitching staff it has ever had, though the offense needs significant work. Aside from Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado, there are no consistent, productive hitters in the lineup, aside from DJ LeMahieu's average contact bat. Now, back to Davis. The 6'5" right hander is a converted starter who was pretty decent in that role (4.57 ERA, 1.45 WHIP in 88 career starts), but he has been beyond excellent as a reliever (1.65 ERA, 0.98 WHIP in 305 appearances). He was at his best in 2014 and 2015, but his 2017 season saw him put up a very solid 2.30 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 79/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 appearances (note the high strikeout rate), and he is still one of the game's best relievers. His ERA will jump in Colorado in this 2018-2020 period, but there aren't many out there who are better than Davis. It should also be noted that Davis is the first player to sign this offseason after rejecting a qualifying offer, so he will cost the Rockies their third highest draft pick in 2018. Now, it's time for them to go pick up a bat or two.

Brewers Sign Jhoulys Chacin

Jhoulys Chacin: 13-10, 3.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 153/72 K/BB, 180.1 IP

They don't get talked about a lot, but the Brewers are a good team with a chance to contend with the Cubs and Cardinals in the NL Central, and adding Jhoulys Chacin is a big step in the right direction. They already lost staff leader Jimmy Nelson (12-6, 3.49 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) for a portion of the 2018 season, but Chacin joins a rotation that does include Zach Davies (17-9, 3.90, 1.35) and Chase Anderson (12-4, 2.74, 1.09) at the front end, and Chacin is no slouch himself. The 29 year old had a big year in 2017, going 13-10 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 32 starts for the Padres, and he should fit right in to the middle of the Milwaukee rotation. Chacin's slider is one of the best in baseball, posting the second highest "slider value" (according to Fangraphs) in baseball, behind only Max Scherzer. However, there is one split that catches my attention. In 16 home starts in San Diego's pitcher-friendly PETCO Park, Chacin went 9-3 with a 1.79 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP, but in 16 road starts, he went 4-7 with a 6.53 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. That's the difference between the best home ERA in all of baseball and the worst road ERA in all of baseball (min 80 innings for both), which is a bit troubling. However, looking further back, he had a 3.52 ERA at home and a 5.85 ERA on the road in 2016. Extending it out over his career, which includes six seasons pitching in pitchers' hell Coors Field, he still has a much lower home ERA (3.65) than road (4.27), so it may be a case of him just really liking to pitch in familiar environments. Chacin is an interesting pitcher, and the Brewers got a fair deal on him at $15 million. For his career, the Venezuela native is 59-67 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 195 games (167 starts) for the Rockies, Diamondbacks, Braves, Angels, and Padres.

Indians Add Yonder Alonso to Lineup

Yonder Alonso: 28 HR, .266/.365/.501, 2 SB, 132 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR
Two years, $16 million, $8 million vesting option for 2020

Signing Yonder Alonso is a great move by the Indians. Alonso had a big breakout season in 2017, one very comparable to that of the man he'll be replacing in the lineup, Carlos Santana. Alonso hit .266/.365/.501 with a 132 wRC+, while Santana slashed .259/.363/.455 with a 117 wRC+, and while Santana signed for $60 million with the Phillies, Alonso's contract is worth just $16 million. Obviously, Santana has a much longer track record than Alonso, but Alonso is no slouch and should have no problem replacing Santana in the lineup. His big power breakout in 2017 was fueled by fly balls and hard contact, as he set career highs in both (43.2% and 36%, respectively), while naturally setting a career low in ground balls (33.9%). In addition to all those fly balls, his 13.1% walk rate was also a career high, putting together a power/on-base package that cleanly fits the $16 million price tag. His 132 wRC+ placed him 29th in baseball, just behind Anthony Rizzo (133) and ahead of the likes of Nolan Arenado (129), Buster Posey (128), and Corey Seager (127). For his career, the former Miami Hurricane has 67 home runs, a .268/.340/.407 line, and 5.7 fWAR over 806 games.

Evan Longoria Shipped to San Francisco for Denard Span, Prospects

Giants Get: Evan Longoria (Age 32): 20 HR, .261/.313/.424, 6 SB, 96 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

$14.5 million

Rays Get: Denard Span (Age 33): 12 HR, .272/.329/.427, 12 SB, 102 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR

Christian Arroyo (Age 22): 3 HR, .192/.244/.304, 1 SB, 44 wRC+, -0.5 fWAR

Matt Krook (Age 23): 4-9, 5.12 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 105/66 K/BB, 91.1 IP at High Class A

Stephen Woods (Age 22): 6-7, 2.95 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 113/64 K/BB, 110 IP at Class A

I don't like the idea of the Giants trading for Evan Longoria. He is a good player, but the Giants are unlikely to contend in 2017 and beyond, as their roster has little long-term depth due to a farm system that only got weaker in dealing three prospects. He has five years and $88 million left on his contract (with the Rays paying $14.5 million), and while that's about market value for a good bat and a good glove together, they gave up a major leaguer and three good prospects (though the Rays are sending money with him). Denard Span is owed $15 million for 2018 (assuming the Rays buy out his contract for 2019), so that offsets some, but it is still not a good trade for a Giants team that should be rebuilding, not stretching out an already closed window of contention. All of that said, Longoria patches up a big hole in the Giants roster, sliding into a solid infield that includes Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, and Brandon Crawford as well. The outfield is less fearsome (Hunter Pence, Jarrett Parker, Gorkys Hernandez, Mac Williamson), but at least the infield is patched up. Longoria is coming off a down offensive year, one where he slashed .261/.313/.424 with 20 home runs over 156 games, good for a 96 wRC+, but his good defense helped bring his fWAR up to 2.5. It was still by far the worst season of his career, the first in which his wRC+ dipped below league average (100) and also the first full season in which he failed to put up at least 3.3 fWAR. He is coming off an excellent 2016 (36 HR, .273/.318/.521, 123 wRC+, 4.5 fWAR), and there is definitely still sock in the bat, but he's on the wrong side of 30 and it would make sense that he would trend downwards. For his career, the California native and former Long Beach State Dirtbag has 261 home runs, a .270/.341/.483 slash line, and 49.6 fWAR over 1435 games.

Going back to the Rays, mainly for salary relief, is Denard Span, who grew up 15 minutes from downtown Tampa. Span, who gets on base at a good clip and still has good speed at 33 years old, has seen his power spike in since coming to San Francisco. After never hitting more than eight home runs in a season from 2008-2015, Span cracked eleven and twelve home runs in 2016 and 2017, and his .155 isolated power (slugging minus batting average) in 2017 was far and away a career high. In fact, overall, he was more productive at the plate in 2017 (102 wRC+) than Longoria (96 wRC+). That's not to say he's a better hitter in the long run, but he's definitely a productive hitter. For his career, Span has 60 home runs, a .283/.348/.396 slash line, 176 stolen bases, and 26.5 fWAR over 1222 games. 22 year old shortstop Christian Arroyo is the biggest piece moving, though, and he's also a Tampa-area native to boot. Arroyo is an advanced hitter with excellent bat to ball skills, one who is tough to strike out and who can have some sneaky power when he gets into one. In 2017, he made a mockery of AAA pitching in the small sample of 25 games, slashing .396/.461/.604 with four home runs, seven doubles, and a pair of stolen bases, striking out twelve times to six walks. He also spent 34 games in the big leagues with the Giants, slashing .192/.244/.304 with three home runs, five doubles, and one stolen base. He struck out 32 times and walked eight times, and while he wasn't exactly a prized contributor in the lineup, he showed competence and should be ready for a full season in the majors in 2018 once he works his way back from the broken hand that ended his season in August. He has a high floor as a utility man and a relatively high ceiling as an everyday shortstop and a high-OBP leadoff man. Matt Krook, a San Francisco native, is an interesting pitching prospect. Krook was a highly regarded prospect coming out of high school and dominated the Pac-12 as a freshman at Oregon (1.79 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 60 strikeouts in 45.1 innings), but blew out his elbow, missed 2015, and couldn't throw a strike as a redshirt-sophomore for the Ducks in 2016 (5.03 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 49 walks in 53.2 innings). The Giants liked his raw stuff, which includes a running low to mid 90's fastball and an excellent power curveball, and took him in the fourth round. After walking 35 in 40.2 innings in his pro debut last year, he walked another 66 in 91.1 innings in 2017, making progress but not much. On the bright side, in his final five games, he walked just one batter in 10.2 innings while striking out 17 and allowing just one run. If he really turned a corner in those final games, he could be a mid-rotation starter for the Rays. If not, he still has a good chance at being a power reliever. Lastly, 22 year old Stephen Woods was drafted in the eighth round out of SUNY Albany in 2016, and the Giants have done a great job cleaning him up thus far. Like Krook, he struggles with command, but his great stuff led to a 2.95 ERA and 113 strikeouts in 110 innings in 23 starts at Class A Augusta in 2017. The 64 walks were a bit high, but he comes in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a hard cutter-slider, and a good curveball, so he could very well become a back-end starter if he doesn't end up in the bullpen.

Angels Continue to Build with Addition of Zack Cozart

Zack Cozart: 24 HR, .297/.385/.548, 3 SB, 141 wRC+, 5.0 fWAR
Three Years, $38 million

If there was any doubt they were going for a division crown after the signing of Shohei Ohtani, the Angels have alleviated it with the trade for Ian Kinsler and the signing of Zack Cozart. They probably won't catch the Astros, but their is always a chance and if not, the Angels are in really good position for a Wild Card spot. After years of decency, posting fWAR's between 1.2 and 2.5 every year from 2012-2016, Cozart broke out in a big way in 2017 by slashing .297/.385/.548 with 24 home runs, a 141 wRC+, and 5.0 fWAR over 122 games. His .312 BABIP (versus a .280 career mark) suggests that luck may have played a part in his breakout, but not by much, and his batted ball data supports his breakout being real. His 30.8% hard-hit rate was the second highest of his career (after the 31.2% rate in 2016), while his 42.3% fly ball rate was a career high and his 38.2% ground ball rate was a career low. Cozart also brings defensive value, and though he'll move from shortstop to third base in deference to wizard Andrelton Simmons, it's a big upgrade in the field for the Halos. Now with Simmons, Cozart, Kinsler, Mike Trout, and Martin Maldonado in the field, the Angels will boast one of baseball's best defenses with the likelihood to bring home multiple Gold Gloves. For his career, the Ole Miss alumnus has 82 home runs, a .254/.305/.411 slash line, and 14.9 fWAR over 743 games.

Phillies Sign Carlos Santana

Carlos Santana: 23 HR, .259/.363/.455, 5 SB, 117 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR
Three Years, $60 million, $17.5 million club option for 2021

The Phillies' signing of slugger Carlos Santana is an interesting one as they gear up for a potential run of contention in the next few years. Young stars Rhys Hoskins, J.P. Crawford, Aaron Nola, Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, and more are ready to or already have come into their own, and with the Marlins and Mets trending in the wrong direction, the door is as open as it ever will be for Philadelphia. The Nationals aren't going anywhere, and the Braves are on their way up, but with the young core the Phillies have, there is no reason they can't join them in the next few seasons. Veteran Carlos Santana will be right in the middle of that, drawing walks and crushing home runs with regularity. In each of his past seven seasons, Santana has hit at least 18 home runs and walked at least 88 times, reaching 20 home runs five times and 100 walks twice. This past season, he slashed .259/.363/.455 with 23 home runs in 154 games, good for a 117 wRC+ and 3.0 fWAR, his seventh straight season with more than 2.0 fWAR. Meanwhile, he also set a career low with his 14.1% strikeout rate, and he'll no doubt be a big presence in the middle of the lineup. Defensively, though, he's more of a question mark. It looks like, as of now, he'll play first base with defensive question mark Rhys Hoskins moving to the outfield. Hoskins is not a butcher, but he's also not great out there, so Odubel Herrera and Aaron Altherr/Nick Williams (whoever ends up starting) will need to step up to make up for Hosksins. However, that's a small problem to have considering Santana's bat. For his career, the Dominican has 174 home runs, a .249/.365/.445 slash line, and 23.0 fWAR over 1116 games.

Cardinals Send Stephen Piscotty Home to Oakland A's

A's Get: Stephen Piscotty: 9 HR, .235/.342/.367, 3 SB, 92 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR

Cardinals Get: Max Schrock: 7 HR, .321/.379/.422, 4 SB, 128 wRC+ at AA

Yairo Munoz: 13 HR, .300/.330/.464, 22 SB, 109 wRC+ at AA and AAA

The Stephen Piscotty trade makes for a pretty good story. Piscotty, a San Francisco Bay Area native, had a down year in 2017 as his mother was diagnosed with ALS and he struggled with balancing the demands of professional baseball with his mother's illness. In response, the Cardinals made a classy move and shipped him from St. Louis across the country to Oakland, where he can play just a half hour from his hometown of Pleasanton. Playing closer to his mother, Piscotty could see a big bounce back and look more like his 2016 self, where he slashed .273/.343/.457 with 22 home runs over 153 games, good for a 116 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. That stands in contrast to 2017, where he slashed .235/.342/.367 with nine home runs in 107 games, good for a 92 wRC+ and 0.2 fWAR. The A's aren't quite contenders yet, but he joins a young core that includes Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Chase Pinder, and the up and coming Franklin Barreto and Renato Nunez on offense as well a slew of arms. Due to the big extension he signed prior to the 2017 season, he's under contract for five years and just over $32 million, plus a $15 million club option for 2023, which means he'll be around by the time the A's start contending. If he can maintain his high walk rate and get back to his old ways of hitting, Piscotty is one of the players the A's will build around for the next half decade. For his career, the former Stanford Cardinal has 38 home runs, a .268/.346/.438 slash line, and 4.2 fWAR over 323 games.

Going back to St. Louis are two great prospects in Max Schrock and Yairo Munoz. Schrock, a 13th round pick out of the University of South Carolina by the Nationals in 2015, has become a fan favorite due to his gritty play. The 5'8" second baseman has simply hit and hit and hit everywhere he has gone, and that was certainly the case in 2017. In 106 games with AA Midland this year, he slashed .321/.379/.422 with seven home runs, good for a 128 wRC+. He also put up a very respectable 42/34 strikeout to walk ratio, and while that 7.4% walk rate could use a little bump, his 9.2% strikeout rate is sufficiently low enough to bring confidence in his ability to carry his hitting to the highest level. Schrock is definitely a name to watch in St. Louis. Equally highly regarded is Yairo Munoz, a 22 year old infielder who reached AAA in 2017. Starting with AA Midland, Munoz proved to be too much for the league, slashing .316/.348/.532 with six home runs and 12 stolen bases in 47 games (good for a 140 wRC+), earning a promotion to AAA Nashville. There, he more than held his own, slashing .289/.316/.414 with seven home runs and ten stolen bases in 65 games (good for an 86 wRC+). At this point, learning to draw more walks could raise his value significantly, but maintaining his average power in the big leagues would also be a boon. If he does both, he could be the Cardinals' starting third baseman within a couple years. If not, he still profiles as a solid utility man who can play all over the diamond, including shortstop.

Nationals Re-Sign Brandon Kintzler

Brandon Kintzler: 4-3, 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 39/16 K/BB, 71.1 IP
Two years, $10 million. Option for 2020, plus incentives could bring deal to $16 million

The back of the Nationals' bullpen will look similar to last year, as Brandon Kintzler is returning on a two year deal and Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson never left. The Nationals acquired Kintzler from the Twins at the trade deadline for a minor league arm, and he threw for a 3.46 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings down the stretch. Unlike many relievers nowadays, he doesn't strike out a ton of hitters, instead relying on weak contact and ground balls. In fact, he had a 54.9% ground ball rate in 2017 as well as a 25.7% hard contact rate, leading to a .271 opponents' BABIP. His deal is worth $10 million over two years, but if incentives are met and the 2020 option is exercised, it could be a three year deal worth $16 million. For his career, the righty out of Dixie State is 14-14 with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 208/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 306.2 innings. 

Angels Fill Second Base Hole with Ian Kinsler

Angels Get: Ian Kinsler: 22 HR, .236/.313/.412, 14 SB, 90 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR

Tigers Get: Troy Montgomery: 8 HR, .271/.358/.413, 15 SB, 113 wRC+ at Class A, High Class A, and AA

Wilkel Hernandez: 4-1, 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 44/22 K/BB, 44.1 IP at AZL and Rookie

The suddenly-contending Angels addressed another glaring hole in their roster, adding Ian Kinsler to play second base. Kinsler is a veteran who is clearly on the down-slope of his career, but he's still a great player who can provide value to a contending team. Over 139 games for the Tigers this year, he slashed .236/.313/.412 with 22 home runs and 14 stolen bases, and had he hit one more home run in 2010, it would have been his twelfth straight season with double digit home runs and stolen bases. With Kinsler on board, the Angels can now turn to shoring up their pitching staff behind Shohei Ohtani and Garrett Richards (and in my opinion a consistent innings-eater like Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, or C.C. Sabathia should do the trick if they choose the free agent route), and Kinsler will get to work hitting. He's under contract for $11 million for 2018 but will be a free agent after the season. He also provides value on defense, in fact enough to convert his 91 wRC+ to a season worth 2.4 fWAR. We can also expect his offensive numbers to get a bump from moving away from a pitcher-friendly park in Detroit. For his career, the former Missouri Tiger has 234 home runs, a .273/.342/.447 slash line, 225 stolen bases, and 46.4 fWAR over 1673 games.

The Tigers don't get any big names for Kinsler, but they are moving $11 million in salary and he is under contract for just one season. Troy Montgomery was drafted in the eighth round out of Ohio State in 2016, and a successful season saw the 23 year old outfielder reach AA in 2017. Starting off at Class A Burlington, he slashed .256/.418/.465 with a pair of home runs an a ridiculous 4/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 15 games, earning a quick promotion to High Class A Inland Empire. There, in the hitter-friendly California League, he slashed .282/.348/.443 with six home runs and nine stolen bases over 65 games, not excellent production by Cal League standards, but enough to earn a second promotion to AA Mobile. In 20 games to close out the season, he scuffled a bit, slashing .235/.350/.265 with a pair of doubles accounting for his only extra base hits, though he did steal four bases. He is a smart hitter who takes his walks, and he stands out on defense for his speed. He profiles well as a fourth outfielder, but if his power comes along, he could see some starts as a center fielder. Wilkel Hernandez is an 18 year old right handed pitcher out of Venezuela with success in a limited track record in the minors. After dominating the Dominican Summer League in five starts as a 17 year old in 2016, he moved up to the Arizona League in 2017 and put up a 2.61 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in eleven games (seven starts), striking out 42 and walking 20 in 41.1 innings. Moved up to Rookie level Orem for one relief appearance at the end of the season, he held Idaho Falls (Royals) to one run on two hits and two walks over three innings, striking out two. He's a project who is a long, long way away from the majors, but he turns just 19 in April and is loaded with a low 90's fastball from a projectable 6'3" frame. He may have to convert to relief if he can't refine his secondary pitches, but he's an exciting wild card of a prospect who could end up being very good.

After Missing on Stanton, Cardinals Acquire Marlins' Ozuna

Cardinals Get: Marcell Ozuna: 37 HR, .312/.376/.548, 1 SB, 142 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR

Marlins Get: Sandy Alcantara: 0-0, 4.32 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 10/6 K/BB, 8.1 IP

Magneuris Sierra: 0 HR, .317/.359/.317, 2 SB, 86 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR

Zac Gallen: 10-8, 2.93 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 121/35 K/BB, 147.2 IP at High Class A, AA, and AAA

Daniel Castano: 9-3, 2.57 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 81/13 K/BB, 91 IP at Class A Short Season

After Stanton, the trade of Marcell Ozuna to the Cardinals is perhaps the biggest this offseason. St. Louis is a team with very real playoff aspirations, but an outfield of Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham, and Stephen Piscotty/Randal Grichuk isn't quite enough for a World Series run. With Piscotty likely to be dealt to the A's, Ozuna can step in and seriously upgrade the team. He'll immediately be the best bat in the lineup, slotting right in the middle with Fowler, Pham, Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko, Paul DeJong, and Yadier Molina around him. He has two years of arbitration left, meaning the Cardinals will have him cheap in both 2018 and 2019, and they'll be his age 27 and 28 seasons. You might not have heard about it because of his small market team, but Ozuna blossomed from an above-average hitter to one who straight up mashed in 2017. A year after slashing a respectable .266/.321/.452 with 23 home runs in 2016, good for a 106 wRC+ and 2.5 fWAR, Ozuna got onto another level this year, slashing .312/.376/.548 with 37 home runs, a 142 wRC+, and 4.8 fWAR in 2017, earning a spot in his second straight All Star Game. His 142 wRC+ was good for 15th in all of baseball, slotting him ahead of such names as Charlie Blackmon (141), Zack Cozart (141), George Springer (140), and Cody Bellinger (138). Even with defense that Fangraphs rated as overall negative in value, his 4.8 fWAR was enough to place him 21st among all MLB position players. His arm helped him "save" ten runs defensively, netting him a Gold Glove, and he has turned himself into a real asset. Are we due for some regression in 2018? Probably, when you consider his career-high .355 BABIP (versus .327 for his career), but you can also look at his career-high 39.1% hard-hit rate and career-high 9.4% walk rate and think their might have been something going on. For his career, the Dominican has 96 home runs and a .277/.329/.457 slash line, racking up 14.2 fWAR in 653 games, all with the Marlins.

For the Cardinals, this trade injects a huge amount of talent into a completely barren farm system, even after the Stanton and Gordon trades. Their top two prospects (according to MLB.com), Trevor Rogers and Braxton Garrett, combined to throw just 15.1 professional innings (all Garrett) in their entire careers. However, with the big haul coming in, their farm system immediately jumps from "awful" to "mediocre," and that's a big leap. Sandy Alcantara, a 22 year old Dominican fireballer, is one of two headliners in the package. He spent the minor league season with AA Springfield, putting up so-so numbers (4.31 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 106/54 K/BB in 125.1 innings), but was promoted to the majors in September and held his own (4.32 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 10/6 K/BB in 8.1 innings). His best pitch is his fastball, which sits in the mid to upper 90's and reaches 100 at times, followed by a pretty good changeup. His curveball is average right now, but a live arm like Alcantara's could tighten it in time. He's a string bean at 6'4" and 170 pounds and has the ceiling of a #2 starter, but even if his command and curveball don't develop in the way the Marlins hope, he could fall back onto being an elite reliever. Co-headlining the deal is 21 year old outfielder Magneuris Sierra, a fellow Dominican who made a huge jump in 2017. Sierra began the year at High Class A Palm Beach, slashing .272/.337/.407 with three doubles, four triples, and three stolen bases in 20 games. He was promoted straight to the majors in May, and spent the rest of the season bouncing back and forth between the Cardinals and AA Springfield. With Springfield, he slashed .269/.313/.357 with one home run and 17 stolen bases in 81 games, and with St. Louis, he slashed .317/.359/.317 with no extra base hits and two stolen bases in 22 games. Sierra is young, which is a bonus, and he plays excellent defense in center field, but he also has no power to speak of and hasn't yet mastered the art of drawing walks. He already has the contact ability to stick in the majors, but if he can improve his walk rate, he could be a top of the order hitter. If not, he's an excellent fourth outfielder/defensive replacement or a good bottom of the order hitter. 22 year old right hander Zac Gallen was a personal favorite of mine during his time back at the University of North Carolina, and the Cardinals selected him in the third round of the 2016 draft. From there, he has shut down minor league hitting, starting 2017 with High Class A Palm Beach and dominating to the tune of a 1.62 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 56/10 strikeout to walk ratio in nine starts. Promoted to AA Springfield, he held his own despite being just a year removed from college ball, going 4-5 with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 13 starts, striking out 42 and walking 19 in 71.1 innings. He had a few starts for AAA Memphis interspersed in there, where he put up a 3.48 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 23/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.2 innings. Gallen right now projects as a mid to back-end starter, throwing a running fastball in the low 90's, a darting cutter that contrasts well with the fastball, and a good changeup. With his above average command, he's pretty low risk, meaning it's hard to imagine him as ending up as anything less than a #5 starter. Lastly, there's Daniel Castano, a 23 year old right hander drafted in the 19th round out of Baylor in 2016. He really got going in 2017 in the Class A Short Season New York-Penn League, going 9-3 with a 2.57 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and an 81/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings. He's a bit on the older side for a prospect that far away from the majors, but he'll try to jump a few levels in 2018 and could be a back-end starter with his good command.

Cubs Add Morrow to Bullpen

Brandon Morrow: 6-0, 2.06 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 50/9 K/BB, 43.2 IP
2 years, $21 million, $12 million vesting option for 2020

Having lost Wade Davis to free agency and non-tendered Hector Rondon, Brandon Morrow is a big add for the Cubs. The bullpen looks weak as it is, with Pedro Strop (2.83 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 60.1 IP), Carl Edwards Jr. (2.98 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 66.1 IP), and Justin Wilson (3.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 58 IP) headlining what's left. Morrow adds another late inning option, as the 33 year old righty transitioned very well to relief work last season, putting up a 2.06 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP over 45 appearances, striking out 50 and walking nine in 43.2 innings. The difference was added power to his breaking ball and a three MPH bump in his average velocity from 95 to 98, leading to a career-high 29.4% strikeout rate to go along with a career-low 5.3% walk rate. It's important not to think of him as a replacement for Davis, as his peak last year was closer to Davis' average performance, but as an added weapon that can be used in the late innings. He was injured very often as a starter, and while that risk is somewhat lower now that he is a reliever, he's no guarantee to stay healthy throughout the year. For his career, he is 51-43 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 299 games (113 starts) since being drafted fifth overall out of Cal-Berkeley in 2006.

Yankees Acquire Stanton From Marlins

Yankees Get: Giancarlo Stanton: 59 HR, .281/.376/.631, 2 SB, 156 wRC+, 6.9 fWAR

$30 million (if Stanton does not opt out after 2020 season)

Marlins Get: Starlin Castro: 16 HR, .300/.338/.454, 2 SB, 110 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR

Jorge Guzman: 5-3, 2.30 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 88/18 K/BB, 66.2 IP at Class A Short Season

Jose Devers: 1 HR, .245/.336/.342, 16 SB, 100 wRC+ at DSL and GCL

In the blockbuster trade we've been waiting for, the Yankees acquired reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins in exchange for Starlin Castro and two low-level prospects. Stanton comes with a massive ten year, $295 million contract that runs through 2027, though Stanton can opt out after the 2020 season, which would leave the Yankees on the hook for three years and $77 million. The Marlins have agreed to ship $30 million along with Stanton if he does not exercise his opt-out, bringing the Yankees' total cost to $265 million, but they'll get no money if he does opt out. This likely takes New York out of the running to sign Bryce Harper after the 2018 season. Stanton gives the Yankees both baseball's two premier power hitters, and he and Aaron Judge could be the most fearsome offensive combination in the game, having combined for 111 home runs last season. Stanton will likely serve as the DH as Judge plus some combination of Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Jacoby Ellsbury man the outfield, though Ellsbury's name has been mentioned in trade rumors. This is a very dangerous Yankees team, and if you combine their star power with their depth and farm system, we are likely seeing the beginning of a new dynasty. For Stanton himself, he is coming off an MVP season in which he crushed 59 home runs and slashed .281/.376/.631 over 159 games, posting a 156 wRC+ and racking up 6.9 fWAR. Expect his numbers to get a boost in cozy Yankee Stadium and with better hitters protecting him in the lineup, but also know that most of Stanton's home runs go so far that the fence distance doesn't really matter. For his career, the LA native has 267 home runs, a .268/.360/.554 slash line, a 144 wRC+, and 34.1 fWAR over 986 games.

The most important thing the Marlins get out of this trade is salary relief. Stanton's contract was simply too expensive for the new ownership to handle, and the Marlins are rebuilding anyways so having Stanton on the books doesn't really make sense. Starlin Castro is the lone major leaguer going back to Miami, and he will slot right in at second base, which was just vacated by the Dee Gordon trade a few days earlier. Castro is on the hook for two years and $22 million, which wouldn't even make a dent in Stanton's ten year, $295 million (or three year, $77 million) deal and is still considerably cheaper than Gordon's three years and $38 million. Castro is coming off a very good season, having slashed .300/.338/.454 with 16 home runs and a 110 wRC+ for the Yankees, good for 1.9 fWAR in 119 games. He could use a few more walks to get that on-base percentage up, but for a rebuilding team, he can be a major contributor on offense and serve as a trade chip down the line. Meanwhile, Jorge Guzman is a 21 year old right handed pitcher who was acquired from the Astros in last year's Brian McCann trade. He had a huge breakout year in 2017 in Short Season ball with Staten Island, going 5-3 with a 2.30 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an 88/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 66.2 innings over 13 starts. Guzman brings blazing heat, throwing his fastball in the upper 90's while touching 101, 102, and even 103 MPH, enough juice to strike out 33.5% of the New York-Penn League hitters he faced this year. He also possesses the rare trait of being able to command that fastball, evidenced by a 6.8% walk rate this year. However, he does come with a few downsides. Guzman has a lot of work to do on his offspeed pitches, as he can't get by on fastball alone as he moves up to full season ball and beyond. He also turns 22 in January, so while he isn't old for a prospect, we're yet to see him pitch in full season ball and he's not exactly the youngest guy around. If it all breaks right, he has mid-rotation potential, but if those offspeed pitches never develop, he'll likely be a set-up man. Jose Devers, cousin of Red Sox star Rafael Devers, is an 18 year old shortstop out of the Dominican Republic. He is very much a wild card given his age and could develop in any number of directions, but we do know that he has a very good glove and can likely stick at shortstop. After slashing .239/.255/.326 with an ugly 16/0 strikeout to walk ratio over 11 games in the Dominican Summer League, he improved to .246/.359/.348 with a home run and a much better 21/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games upon a promotion to the Gulf Coast League. As I said, he has a long way to go, but he'll be 18 for all of 2018 and has plenty of time to develop.

Shohei Ohtani Signs With Angels

NPB Stats

Hitting: 8 HR, 31 RBI, .332/.403/.540, 0 SB

Pitching: 3-2, 3.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 29/19 K/BB, 25.1 IP

After whittling the field down to seven teams (Mariners, Dodgers, Giants, Angels, Rangers, Cubs, Padres), Japanese two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani has signed with the Los Angeles Angels. This is huge news for the franchise that already has baseball's best player, Mike Trout, as Ohtani comes well below market price. After shelling out $20 million to Ohtani's Japanese team, the Nippon-Ham Fighters, the Angels will kick just over $2 million to Ohtani as a signing bonus, saving a boatload of money from what they would have spent for a comparable talent on the open market. Let's start with the hitting. It is unclear what position Ohtani will play when he is not on the mound, but he will likely split time between DH and the outfield, giving the Angels a loaded Trout-Justin Upton-Ohtani outfield on some days. His hitting, in my opinion, is more of a question than his pitching, but the man can mash. He missed much of this past season to an ankle injury, but when he was on the field, he slashed .332/.403/.540 with eight home runs in 65 games. Back in 2016, when he was healthy, he crushed 22 home runs and slashed .322/.416/.588 in 104 games, showcasing big time power and an ability to get on base. I am a bit troubled by his strikeout rate, which sits at 26.3% over the past two seasons compared to a 12.7% walk rate, as he may have difficulty hitting superior major league pitching. He's more of a sure thing as a pitcher, where he'll slot into a banged up rotation that includes some combination of Garrett Richards, Matt Shoemaker, Tyler Skaggs, J.C. Ramirez, Andrew Heaney, and Parker Bridwell. None of those six threw more than 147.1 innings last year, and only Ramirez and Bridwell even threw more than 85. Ohtani's fastball sits in the upper 90's and was once clocked at 102.5 MPH, the fastest in Japanese history. Meanwhile, he brings a slew of offspeed pitches that can all grade as plus, giving him weapons galore to use against major league hitters. In his injury-limited 2017 in Japan, he posted a 3.20 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over five starts, striking out 29 and walking 19 in 25.1 innings. However, his healthy 2016 stats tell the real story, as he went 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 21 starts, striking out 174 and walking 45 in 140 innings. At this point, it looks like the only thing that could do him in on the mound are walks, so if he keeps those down, he could be an ace. Remember, he doesn't even turn 24 until July. This is a truly special talent. There is still work to be done, as they need at least one more consistent starter, and there is a gaping hole at second base. If they fill those spots and Albert Pujols, Kole Calhoun, and C.J. Cron can bounce back, they will give the Astros a run for their money in the AL West. Angels, get to work.

Mariners Acquire Dee Gordon, Signing Space for Prospects

Mariners Get: Dee Gordon, 2 HR, .308/.341/.375, 60 SB, 92 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR
$1 million in international signing bonus space
Marlins Get: Nick Neidert: 11-6, 3.45 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 122/22 K/BB, 127.2 IP at High Class A and AA
Robert Dugger: 6-6, 2.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 116/32 K/BB, 117.2 IP at Class A and High Class A
Chris Torres: 6 HR, .238/.329/.446, 14 SB, 116 wRC+ at AZL and Class A Short Season

This Marlins-Mariners trade has many implications. The Marlins are rebuilding and looking to dump salary, so shipping Dee Gordon and the three years and $38 million left on his contract to Seattle makes perfect sense. However, before I get to Gordon, perhaps the biggest news of this trade is that the Mariners now have $3.5575 million to offer Ohtani, shooting them to first place among the seven suitors (Rangers #2 at $3.535 million, Angels #3 at $2.315 million). If they sign Ohtani, this deal was a win, no questions asked. However, they do have a nice piece in Dee Gordon, the speedy second baseman with 212 stolen bases over the past four seasons. With Robinson Cano already at second base, Gordon will slide to centerfield despite never having played the outfield, but his speed should help him do just fine there. If you don't believe me, Billy Hamilton was a shortstop before the Reds moved him to center, and now he's arguably the best defensive centerfielder in the National League. Unfortunately for Gordon, most of his value comes from speed and defense, as he doesn't walk much and has never hit more than four home runs in a game. Fortunately, with all those singles, he still posted an on-base percentage of .341 in 2017, though it could get much higher if he became more patient. His 52.2% swing percentage was 20th highest in baseball this year, while his 36.6% O-swing percentage (out of zone) was 17th highest. He was able to keep his strikeout rates down because of his 77.9% O-contact percentage (9th highest in baseball), but this also suppresses his walks. If he can cut down on his chase rate just a little in Seattle, not only will it help his OBP, but he will also get numerous more chances to use his devastating speed on the bases. For his career, the Orlando area native has eleven home runs, a .293/.329/.367 slash line, and 278 stolen bases over 711 games for 11.6 total fWAR.

In return for their leadoff man and money, the Marlins got three prospects and salary relief. With Gordon's three years and $38 million off the books, Miami may have just a little more money to package with Giancarlo Stanton on his potential trade, increasing the value of prospects they could get in return. In terms of minor leaguers, the most prominent is 6'1" right hander Nick Neidert, a second round pick out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2015. Neidert dominated the hitter-friendly High Class A California League in 2017, going 10-3 with a 2.76 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, striking out 109 and walking 17 in 104.1 innings for Modesto. However, upon a promotion to AA Arkansas, he struggled in his six starts, going 1-3 with a 6.56 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP over 23.1 innings, striking out just 13 and walking five. While his command and changeup stand out, scouts don't like his breaking ball, and his future might hinge on his repeat performance in AA in 2018. If he struggles again, the Marlins could opt to push him to the bullpen where his fastball/changeup combination could play up, but if he gets a hold of the level and starts missing more bats, he could be a nice mid to back end starter in the bigs. 6'2" right hander Robert Dugger was an 18th round pick out of Texas Tech in 2016, but he upped his stock considerably with a successful 2017. Beginning with Class A Clinton, he went 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over 22 games (9 starts), striking out 69 to just 16 walks in 72 innings. Promoted to High Class A Modesto, he held his own in the hitter-friendly California League, going 2-5 with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over nine starts with 47 strikeouts to 16 walks in 45.2 innings. He has a ways to go, but the Mariners got good value out of a mid-round pick and the Marlins will look to develop a future starter. Lastly, shortstop Chris Torres just made it out of complex ball this year, but he also doesn't turn 20 until February. In 52 games this year (48 of which were in Short Season ball with Everett), Torres slashed .238/.329/.446 with six home runs and 14 stolen bases, striking out 69 times while drawing 28 walks. The numbers don't quite capture his strengths, as he is more of a contact hitter than a power guy. His best attribute is his defense, as he should be able to stick at shortstop all the way up the ladder, but his offense needs to come around for him to get the chance. At 19, he has plenty of time to develop into a future utility guy. 

Cubs Sign Chatwood to Three Year Deal

Tyler Chatwood: 8-15, 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 120/77 K/BB, 147.2 IP
Three years, $38 million

Having lost Jake Arrieta and John Lackey to free agency, the Cubs added Tyler Chatwood on a three year deal worth $38 million. This could be huge for both Chatwood and the Cubs, as he has sneakily been very good despite many factors working against him. One such factor was his home park, Coors Field, and he posted a 4.69 ERA because of it. However, that ERA comes out to a 94 ERA- (6% better than league average) when adjusted for park effects, and he was far better on the road than at home, even by Rockies standards. At home, he was 3-8 with a 6.01 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP, while on the road he went 5-7 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. These splits were even more pronounced in 2016, when his 3.87 overall ERA was split between 6.12 at home and 1.69 on the road. In fact, that 1.69 road ERA in 2016 was the best among all MLB starters by a long shot, well ahead of second place Rich Hill (1.89) and third place Steven Wright (2.09). Point is, don't just look at Chatwood's ERA and thing the Cubs are overpaying for a #4 or #5 starter. Pitching full time away from Coors Field, Chatwood is a #3 starter with a chance to be even better, and he cost the Cubs less than $40 million. The Cubs could go forward with their current rotation (which also includes Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and Eddie Butler), but Butler carries a bit of risk and a contending team such as the Cubs may want to go out and find someone to compete with him. If Butler falters, prospect Jen-Ho Tseng is the most obvious option, though fellow prospects Thomas Hatch, Adbert Alzolay, Duane Underwood, and Alec Mills could be ready by mid-season. Chatwood is just about to turn 28, making him one of the youngest free agents available and limiting risk at the back end of his contract. For his career, the SoCal native is 40-46 with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP over 130 games (113 starts), but note the 5.25 home ERA and the 3.31 road ERA.

Rangers Add Minor to Rotation

Mike Minor: 6-6, 2.55 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 88/22 K/BB, 77.2 IP
Three Years, $28 million, 10 Team No-Trade Clause

Not long after adding Doug Fister to their thin rotation, the Rangers have picked up starter-turned-reliever Mike Minor to give them options. Minor was a solid starter for the Braves from 2010-2014, posting his best season in 2013 by going 13-9 with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 32 starts. However, he missed all of 2015 and 2016 with shoulder problems, then returned as a reliever with the Royals in 2017 with great success. Over 65 appearances, he posted a 2.55 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio, and a 17.47 RE24 over 77.2 innings. The Rangers plan to slot him back into the rotation, where he'll work behind Cole Hamels, Martin Perez, and Doug Fister. The fifth starter spot is unclear at the moment, though the Rangers did bring back the non-tendered Chi Chi Gonzalez and rookie Yohander Mendez will look to make an impact. Minor hasn't started a major league game since 2014, so the move to the rotation is not be a certainty, but it is where the Rangers are leaning. If the rotation bid fails without him getting hurt, there is no reason he can't come back as a shut-down reliever like he was with Kansas City. For his career, the Vanderbilt alumnus is 44-42 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 176 games (110 starts).

Cardinals Trade Aledmys Diaz to Blue Jays

Blue Jays Get: Aledmys Diaz (7 HR, .259/.290/.392, 4 SB, 78 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR)

Cardinals Get: Minor leaguer J.B. Woodman (7 HR, .240/.320/.378, 8 SB, 98 wRC+ at Class A)

The Jays and Cardinals pulled off a minor trade, as St. Louis shipped infielder Aledmys Diaz to Toronto for minor league outfielder J.B. Woodman. With Kolten Wong, Greg Garcia, Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko, and the emergence of Paul DeJong, Diaz became expendable, and Blue Jays' middle infielders Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis missing time to injury, Diaz is good depth. He may not be quite starter quality, but he is a solid back-up who can handle starting duties without being a liability. He had a very strong rookie season in 2016, slashing .300/.369/.510 with 17 home runs, a 133 wRC+, and 2.7 fWAR in 111 games, but his performance dropped off in 2017. Over 79 games, he slashed .259/.290/.392 with seven home runs, a 78 wRC+, and 0.2 fWAR, so it's difficult to predict exactly how he'll be in 2018. His walk rate also plummeted in 2017, dropping from 8.9% to 4.3%. He'll need to pick that back up if he wants to be productive in 2018. However, he is under team control for five years, so he has plenty of time to bounce back.

22 year old outfielder J.B. Woodman will go back to St. Louis after a mediocre season. He was drafted in the second round in 2016 out of Ole Miss (though he ranked in fourth round territory in my rankings), and after a solid debut last year, he spent all of 2017 at Class A Lansing in the Midwest League. The Midwest League is a pitchers' league, but a slash line of .240/.320/.378 (98 wRC+) is pretty uninspiring for a college hitter in Class A. The Cardinals are great at developing talent, so Woodman could see more success in their system, and he could end up being a solid fourth outfielder in the future. In my opinion, the Blue Jays were the winners here.

White Sox Add Welington Castillo as Starting Catcher

Welington Castillo: 20 HR, .282/.323/.490, 0 SB, 113 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR
2 years, $15 million with $8 million club option for 2020

The White Sox have absolutely nobody behind the plate right now, so they added former Orioles catcher Welington Castillo on a two year deal. Despite their super-farm system, they more than likely won't contend in 2018, but Castillo could be a big help for a potentially contending 2019 team. That $8 million option could also come in handy if Castillo plays as expected, as they'll definitely be contending by then. He's coming off a solid year for the Orioles where he slashed .282/.323/.490 with 20 home runs over 96 games, posting a 113 wRC+ and racking up 2.7 fWAR with his solid defense. He's a good all around catcher who provides value behind the plate and with his power, and his approach isn't particularly fly ball-heavy anyways (though perhaps he should be), so Camden Yards didn't add much to his power anyways. On top of that, Chicago has a short porch in right field where most of his power is, and this move could help his offensive numbers. Before signing Castillo, the White Sox had Kevan Smith (4 HR, .283/.309/.388) slated at the top of the depth chart with Omar Narvaez (2 HR, .277/.373/.340) behind him, and that won't exactly cut it.

D-Backs Shore Up Bullpen With Trade For Brad Boxberger

Diamondbacks Get: Brad Boxberger (4-4, 3.38 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 40/11 K/BB, 29.1 IP)

Rays Get: Minor Leaguer Curtis Taylor (3-4, 3.32 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 68/23 K/BB, 62.1 IP at Class A)

The Diamondbacks did well for themselves here, acquiring reliever Brad Boxberger in exchange for a low-level minor league arm. Boxberger has been a bit inconsistent throughout his career as most relievers are, seeing his ERA/WHIP drop as low as 2.37/0.84 in 2014 and jump as high as 4.81/1.73 in 2016. He battled injuries early on in 2017 and was limited to just 30 appearances, but he was effective when on the mound, posting a 3.38 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 40/11 strikeout to walk ratio while racking up 5.74 RE24. He'll join Archie Bradley, Andrew Chafin, and Jimmie Sherfy in the back-end of an improving Arizona bullpen not only for this upcoming season, but for 2019 as well. He'll have to be careful about his fly ball rates, which have typically sat in the low forties as a percentage but could really hurt him in a dry air environment like Arizona. For his career, the former USC Trojan is 17-20 with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 231 appearances, striking out 297 and walking 113 in 231 innings.

Going back to Tampa Bay is low-level starting pitcher Curtis Taylor, a 6'6" righty drafted out of the University of British Columbia in 2016. After a successful stint in short season ball after he was drafted, Taylor moved on to Class A Kane County in 2017. He more than held his own in the Midwest League, going 3-4 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 13 starts, striking out 68 and walking 23 in 62.1 innings. Unfortunately, shoulder problems ended his season in July, but he's expected to be healthy for 2018. The 22 year old pitches in the mid-90's with a power slider to go along with his sinking fastball, though he does need to improve his changeup and his command if he wants to keep starting. As a reliever, he should be able to hit the upper 90's and add more power to his slider, and he could move quickly if that happens. At 22 and having never pitched above Class A, he's not exactly ahead of the development curve.

A's Add Yusmeiro Petit to Bullpen

Yusmeiro Petit: 5-2, 2.76 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 101/18 K/BB, 91.1 IP
2 years, $10 million

Some of the A's' top prospects are starting to come of age, including hitters Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Franklin Barreto, Dustin Fowler, and Renato Nunez and pitchers Jharel Cotton, Paul Blackburn, and potentially even A.J. Puk and Grant Holmes, so contention may not be too far off for Oakland. Yusmeiro Petit, their newest veteran reliever, was actually much better than you might realize last season. Over 60 appearances, which totaled 91.1 innings, he posted a 2.76 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 101/18 strikeout to walk ratio, racking up 21.91 RE24. 20.77 of that RE24 was put up in relief, good for the 12th best among all MLB relievers this year. Petit can be stretched out and even start in an emergency, quietly making him one of the most valuable relievers in baseball. With Blake Treinen, Santiago Casilla, Daniel Coulombe, and Ryan Dull also in that bullpen, the A's could be contenders soon.

Reviewing My 2016 Draft Rankings

Intro

I composed my first draft prospect list in 2015, which went 60 deep and, as you would expect from my first time, was filled with holes. I was able to successfully project the success of players like Walker Buehler, Kolby Allard, and Triston McKenzie, but swung and missed badly with a low ranking of Andrew Benintendi and a high ranking of Mike Nikorak. In 2016, with a year's experience under my belt, I ranked 150 players and published the top 100, and while it still wasn't my best work, I was much happier with it than I was with my 2015 rankings. I believe 2017 was the first year where I truly am content, but seeing that you can't evaluate a draft class on its first pro season, let's take a look back at how my 2016 draft rankings have fared 16 months in. 

Linked here are my top 100 draft prospects for 2016: http://www.coverthosebases.com/blog/silverman-top-100-players-in-the-2016-mlb-draft

There will be three sections:

Biggest Successes: Players that I ranked well ahead of industry consensus who, after their first full professional season, have outplayed that consensus and fit closer with my ranking than with most others

Biggest Misses I: Players that have outplayed my predictions, proving my ranking to be too conservative

Biggest Misses II: Players who I ranked well ahead of industry consensus who have not lived up to my expectations, proving my ranking to be too aggressive

Biggest Successes

#8 Forrest Whitley (MLB.com ranking: 12. Draft position: 17, Astros)

I loved everything about Whitley coming into draft day, noting the excellent downhill plane on his mid-90's fastball and his late-breaking, two-plane curveball. Putting an asterisk next to his name because of how high I was on him, I saw the potential to be an ace who could easily wind up as at least a mid-rotation starter. While he was ranked eighth on my list and 12th on MLB.com, he fell to pick #17, where the Astros took him. After a decent debut that summer, he caught fire this year and reached AA as a teenager. Not only did he pitch for AA Corpus Christi just 14 months after graduating high school, he actually thrived, posting a 1.84 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a sharp 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 14.2 innings. I projected him as a potential ace, and he has done everything necessary to remain on track for that.

#11 Dakota Hudson (MLB.com ranking: 15. Draft position: 34, Cardinals)

This is another instance where my ranking, MLB.com's ranking, and the draft position were all in order. I bought in on Hudson's breakout season at Mississippi State, citing his devastating fastball/slider combination despite the lack of a proven track record. Despite being thought of as more of a project than a finished product, Hudson has progressed rapidly through the St. Louis farm system, starting 2017 off with AA Springfield and pitching very well (9-4, 2.53 ERA, 77/34 K/BB) before a late season promotion to AAA Memphis in just his first full professional season. While his Memphis numbers weren't excellent (4.42 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 19/15 K/BB in 38.2 innings), the fact of the matter is that he was in AAA barely a year removed from college and that he has addressed, though not fully vanquished, questions about his durability. He'll need more polish at AAA to begin 2018, but we should see the Tennessee native in the majors at some point during the year, my buying into his breakout year is looking pretty good.

#28 Carter Kieboom (MLB.com ranking: 45. Draft position: 28, Nationals)

This one is different than the first two, because both I and the Nationals saw something in Kieboom that MLB.com didn't. I saw his long swing but noticed that the bat head was in the zone for a long time, comparing him to Anthony Rendon if he could tap into his raw power. Pessimists didn't like the risk he carried, but I was enamored enough with his offensive upside to put label him a first round talent. Like Whitely, he earned an asterisk next to his name, used to denote my favorite players in the draft. The Nationals seemingly agreed with my optimism, taking him in the same spot I ranked him. He has exceeded expectations so far, sticking at shortstop for now despite most prognosticating him as a third baseman, and his bat has translated up to full season ball with no problems. In 48 games at Class A Hagerstown (with time missed to injury), he slashed .296/.400/.497 with eight home runs and a solid 40/28 strikeout to walk ratio despite not turning 20 until the very end of the season. If he can stay healthy, that Anthony Rendon projection could work out.

#34 Alec Hansen (MLB.com ranking: 62. Draft position: 49, White Sox)

Alec Hansen was an interesting case. The 6'7" right hander entered the spring as a candidate to go #1 overall with his mid to upper 90's fastball and solid secondaries, but his command completely dissolved at the beginning of the season and he was booted from Oklahoma's rotation. He managed to right the ship somewhat as the season went on, but his final line was less than inspiring: 5.40 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 75/39 K/BB in 51.2 innings against mostly Big 12 competition. He had the high strikeout numbers, but if he couldn't harness his stuff, that would mean nothing at the next level. He plummeted in the rankings, but I chose to stay on the bandwagon and keep him at #34, 28 spots higher than MLB.com and 15 spots higher than his eventual draft position. I noted that pro coaching had the potential to streamline his delivery and improve his consistency, and so far, the results have been excellent. In 38 starts since being drafted, Hansen is 13-9 with a 2.39 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and most impressively, a 272/71 strikeout to walk ratio in 196 innings. He reached AA at the end of this season, making two starts and posting a 17/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 10.1 innings. The difference has been the return of his control, which was non-existent at OU (6.79 BB/9 in his junior year) but has reached an acceptable level in the minors (3.26 BB/9). At this point, he's looking more and more like the pitcher many thought could go first overall, and #34 could be too conservative a ranking when it's all said and done.

#56 Mike Shawaryn (MLB.com ranking: 139. Draft position: 148, Red Sox)

Mike Shawaryn is like Hansen-lite. After an excellent sophomore season at Maryland (13-2, 1.71 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 138/29 K/BB), he entered the spring as a potential first round pick. However, his junior season was inconsistent (6-4, 3.18 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 97/26 K/BB), and he slipped way down draft boards. He had a funky delivery to begin with, and skeptics saw the regression as a sign that his mechanics wouldn't work at the next level. I dropped him a fair amount as well, but I kept him in the top 60 because I didn't think his 2016 was as frightening as people thought. He maintained a high strikeout rate with 97 in 99 innings (I can't find batters faced data anywhere, so I don't know the K% or BB%), and he maintained a low walk rate of 2.36 per nine. The fact that he had solid control was what eased my mind over the mechanical worries, but it didn't for MLB teams, and he slipped to the fifth round, where the Red Sox took him 148th overall. Through 32 minor league starts reaching up to High Class A, he hasn't been amazing but he has more than held his own, going 8-8 with a 3.71 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 191/55 strikeout to walk ratio in 150.1 innings. Those numbers don't pop off the page, but I do like the high strikeout rate, and he's looking more like a second or third round pick than a fifth rounder right now. We'll have to keep an eye on the 0.80 career ground out to air out ratio though.

#63 Akil Baddoo (MLB.com ranking: 72. Draft position: 74, Twins)

This one is interesting. As of draft day, he was an extremely raw player with poor mechanics whose athleticism and overall trajectory got him noticed. He had big bat speed but looked like he would need a lot of refinement from pro coaching to get anywhere. A .178/.299/.570 slash line in the Gulf Coast League in 2016 seemingly confirmed that, though his 14.2% walk rate was promising. He spent the beginning of 2017 back in the GCL, slashing .267/.360/.440 in 20 games, but he caught fire upon a promotion to rookie level Elizabethton. In 33 games, the 18-19 year old slashed .357/.478/.579, walking 27 times (17.2%) to just 19 strikeouts (12.1%), boosting his stock considerably. Baddoo may have been raw last year, but he is well on his way to reaching his lofty ceiling.

#72 Zac Gallen (MLB.com ranking: 78. Draft position: 106, Cardinals)

My ranking wasn't too far ahead of MLB.com's ranking, but Gallen has been a success despite slipping out of the top 100, so I'll call it a win. He had a solid but unspectacular junior season at UNC (2.68 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 95/21 K/BB in 90.2 innings), relying more on pitchability and smarts than on pure stuff. Cognizant of that pitchability, I liked the stuff just enough to rank him ahead of industry consensus, and he's rewarded me so far. Just like Dakota Hudson, he was drafted by the Cardinals and ended up pitching in AAA by the end of 2017. Through 32 minor league games (29 starts), he is 10-8 with a 2.86 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 136/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 157.1 innings, and he should be one of the first pitchers from his draft class to break into the majors.

#74 Garrett Williams (MLB.com ranking: 154. Draft position: 215, Giants)

This is one I am very proud of. Scouts liked his stuff, but he struggled to stay healthy (31.2 innings in sophomore and junior seasons at Oklahoma State combined) and with his command (30 walks in that span). I was particularly enamored with his stuff, noting an "angled, running fastball, a two-plane curveball that he can mend the shape of, and a fading changeup" (from my 2016 pre-draft notes). I liked his delivery as well, and noted that getting farther from his shoulder injury could help improve his dreadful command, especially as he was on the mound consistently. This all depended on him staying healthy, but so far, he has, and he has thus far justified my extremely optimistic ranking 141 spots higher than he was picked. In 2017, between Class A Augusta and High Class A San Jose in the hitters' paradise California League, Williams went 6-5 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, striking out 96 to 35 walks in 97 innings. The walk rate is still a bit high, but it has come down significantly from college and I think it will continue to do so. Watch this one.

Biggest Misses I (under-projected)

#7 Nick Senzel (MLB.com ranking: 7. Draft position: 2, Reds)

This isn't that big of a miss considering I ranked Senzel in the same place as MLB.com, but I still underestimated him. His big junior season at Tennessee saw him slash .352/.456/.595 with eight home runs, but I saw him more as a solid third baseman than as a star. I recognized his high floor, but wasn't sold on a ceiling of anything higher than a solid, Chase Headley-type third baseman. However, he has already reached AA and is slashing .315/.393/.514 with 21 home runs in his minor league career, including a .340/.413/.560 line in 57 games at AA Pensacola. He still may not be on track for that Headley comparison, but he's skirting right along his ceiling and could push it higher into the Anthony Rendon range (like Kieboom). 

#77 Bo Bichette (MLB.com ranking: 90. Draft position: 66, Blue Jays)

I actually ranked Bichette thirteen spots ahead of MLB.com, but also eleven spots behind where he was taken by the Blue Jays. The talent was evident, as he showed great bat speed and bat control, even if his mechanics were a little wild. However, I, along with most of the teams who picked before the Jays, missed the true potential, as literally everything has gone right for Bichette since draft day. Through 132 games across three levels (22 in the GCL, 70 in Class A, 40 in High Class A), the 19 year old is slashing .372/.427/.591 with 18 home runs, 50 doubles, and 25 stolen bases, including a .323/.379/.463 line at High A this year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Despite being ranked 90th in his draft class by MLB.com in June 2016, he is now ranked as the 25th best prospect in all of baseball, and in my opinion, MLB.com is being too conservative yet again.

#117 Austin Hays (MLB.com ranking: 120. Draft position: 91, Orioles)

Again, I had Hays three spots ahead of MLB.com (as you can see, they're not very good prognosticators), but the Orioles recognized offensive ability that I didn't and took him 26 spots higher than I ranked him. I liked his quick swing but I didn't think the power would hold as he moved up, knocking him out of my top 100. As it turns out, his offensive breakout at the University of Jacksonville was no joke, and he has cracked no fewer than 36 minor league home runs over 166 games so far, slashing .330/.370/.576 in the short season New-York Penn League (38 games in 2016), High A Carolina League (64 games in 2017), and AA Eastern League (64 games). He even earned a September promotion to the big leagues, adding a 37th professional home run as the first player from the 2016 draft class to reach the majors.

#148 Bryse Wilson (MLB.com ranking: 144. Draft position: 109, Braves)

I saw nothing particularly special in Wilson, a high schooler from North Carolina, noting an uneven arm path and what I saw as a below-average slider. The Braves loved the arm strength that I merely liked, taking him 39 spots ahead of my ranking, and it has paid off in spades so far. The slider still isn't great, but they cleaned up his arm path and both his velocity and command have held up, helping him put up an excellent season for Class A Rome this year. Over 26 starts, the 19 year old went 10-7 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, striking out 139 and walking 37 in 137 innings. There are still questions as to how he will hold up at the higher levels without that slider, and he may still turn out to be a reliever, but there is certainly talent here that I did not pick up.

Biggest Misses II (over-projected)

#1 Mickey Moniak (MLB.com ranking: 5. Draft position: 1, Phillies)

This one is an interesting case. Moniak had helium throughout the Spring of 2016, starting as a mid-first round candidate before hitting his way into the top ten and ultimately top five consideration. General industry consensus never moved him past the 4-7 range, but he was a personal favorite of mine due to his swing mechanics and makeup, so I aggressively ranked him number one on my draft board well before the Phillies buzz. As it turned out, the Phillies agreed with me, selecting Moniak first overall. They aggressively assigned him to Class A Lakewood this year, and the results were underwhelming to say the least: .236/.284/.341, five home runs, eleven stolen bases in 123 games. He may have been 19 playing in full season ball, but those numbers just don't cut it. Unfortunately, when I saw Lakewood play at Delmarva on my day off work, Moniak was on the bench, and I only got to see one pinch-hitting plate appearance (he grounded out). Moniak is far from a bust, but he'll probably repeat the level in 2018 in hopes of adjusting. I still have high hopes for Moniak being a star outfielder in Philadelphia, but other players such as Forrest Whitley, Nick Senzel, Bo Bichette, and A.J. Puk have moved ahead of him in his draft class.

#15 Buddy Reed (MLB.com ranking: 30. Draft position: 48, Padres)

I remained optimistic on Alec Hansen and Mike Shawaryn when their stock faded, and that worked out, but it didn't work out when I did the same for Buddy Reed. An extremely athletic outfielder who slashed .305/.367/.433 with 18 stolen bases as a sophomore at Florida, he regressed to .262/.362/.395 with 24 stolen bases as a junior, looking lost at the plate and leading many scouts to question his floor. I still liked his athleticism at the time, but looking back, the warning signs were there, as his high sophomore strikeout rate (17.9%) jumped to 20.5% as a junior. In his full season debut with Class A Fort Wayne this year, he put up a disappointing .234/.290/.396 line with six home runs and 12 stolen bases in 88 games, striking out in 28% of his plate appearances. His athleticism could still help him adjust as he moves up, but he certainly hasn't justified a mid-first round ranking and probably never will.

#49 Jake Fraley (MLB.com ranking: 89. Draft position: 77, Rays)

As of draft day, Fraley struck me as a high floor, low ceiling outfielder who would ultimately fall somewhere between a Sam Fuld and a Gerardo Parra, with the overall projection of a starting outfielder with speed but limited pop. He slashed a career best .326/.408/.464 with five home runs and 28 stolen bases as a junior at LSU in 2016, showing a quick swing and an 11.8% walk rate (coupled with a 10.5% strikeout rate) that led me to make that high-floor projection. Unfortunately, injuries have limited his time on the field in pro ball, and in the 85 total games he has seen on the field, he is slashing just .229/.319/.356 with three home runs and 37 stolen bases. He spent 26 games in the High Class A Florida State League in 2017, which turned out to be a miserable failure as he slashed .170/.238/.255 with one home run, one stolen base, three caught stealing's, and a 22.9% strikeout rate to just a 6.7% walk rate. The 22 year old could concievably bounce back when healthy, but he has a lot of catch-up to play and just as much to prove.

#81 Walker Robbins (MLB.com ranking: 93. Draft position: 166, Cardinals)

This one is just a straight miss on my part. Robbins was a country strong power hitter from rural southeastern Mississippi, one who I believed could break out with pro refinement once his swing was cleaned up. Unfortunately, a year and a half later, that hasn't happened. Through 70 pro games (30 in the complex level Gulf Coast League in 2016, 40 in the Appalachian League in 2017), Robbins is slashing just .179/.239/.246 with two home runs and a 79/19 strikeout to walk ratio. That comes out to a 30% strikeout rate, a 7.2% walk rate, and virtually no production. Robbins is still just 19 and has time to right the ship, but at this point he is looking like a long shot.

Rangers Add Rotation Depth With Doug Fister

Doug Fister: 5-9, 4.88 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 83/38 K/BB, 90.1 IP
Contract: 1 Year, $3.5 million plus incentives, club option for 2019

The Rangers added to their rotation depth with Doug Fister, a 33 year old righty who has had success in the past but is bit of a wild card for 2018. Texas' rotation is one of the worst in baseball, led by ace Cole Hamels (4.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 148 IP) and #2 starter Martin Perez (4.82 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 185 IP), so anything out of Fister will be big. Back in 2014 with the Nationals, he went 16-6 with a 2.41 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, but injuries and inconsistency have kept him from posting an ERA below 4.19 in any of the past three seasons. In 2017, he had a four start stretch from August 22nd to September 6th where he went 3-1 with a 1.50 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 27/8 strikeout to walk ratio in 30 innings, but he was otherwise fairly ineffective, finishing 5-9 with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 18 games (15 starts) for the Red Sox. Also competing for the last three spots in the Texas rotation are Nick Martinez (5.66 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 111.1 IP), A.J. Griffin (5.94 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 77.1 IP), Yohander Mendez (5.11 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 12.1 IP), and the newly acquired Ronald Herrera (6.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 3 IP). It's safe to say that the Rangers will need to acquire a few more rotation arms if they want to compete in 2018. As for Fister, the 6'8" righty out of Fresno State has a career record of 82-85 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 230 games (214 starts) dating back to 2009.

Hall of Fame 2018: My Take

The BBWAA just released its Hall of Fame ballot for 2018. I'll list out my hypothetical ballot with my reasoning behind selecting each player, then I'll talk about notable exclusions and why I would not vote for them.

A quick(ish) primer on my views on steroids:

There are three ways to look at steroid users: let them all in (if they have worthy statistics), let in only those who would have made the Hall of Fame without steroids (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens), or don't let in any. I strongly favor giving those who may or may not have taken steroids the benefit of the doubt, but for those where we know, I fall into the third category. The Hall of Fame honors baseball's greatest players, and while Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens would certainly fit that label even if they stayed clean, the fact is that they knowingly broke the rules to gain an advantage. In 1991, Major League Baseball officially banned steroids, but a group of players, even if it was a large group of players, decided that the rules did not apply to them and that they could use steroids. They therefore were not only spitting on the game, but by playing by a different set of rules, were playing a different variation of the sport than the clean players and should not be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. The argument can be made that baseball was dying after the 1994 strike and that viewership was down, and that ownership pressured stars to use steroids to hit more home runs and save the sport, but I see those players more as martyrs than as victims; they still chose to cheat and corrupt the game. They played by a different set of rules and do not belong in the Hall of Fame.

My Ballot

1. Chipper Jones (468 HR, .303/.401/.529 slash, 150 SB, 141 wRC+, 84.6 fWAR)

This will be one of the two players we can all agree on. Chipper Jones played 20 years for the Atlanta Braves, crushing 468 home runs with an on-base percentage over .400 and good-enough defense at the hot corner. He was the NL MVP in 1999 when he slashed .319/.441/.633 with 45 home runs, good for a 165 wRC+ and 7.3 fWAR, and that year was far from an anomaly. I don't think anybody disagrees, so I'll use my words on the more controversial/borderline players.

2. Jim Thome (612 HR, .276/.402/.554 slash, 19 SB, 145 wRC+, 69.0 fWAR)

Jim Thome is the other uncontroversial player. He blasted 612 home runs over a 22 year career, and if that isn't enough to convince you on his own, he maintained a .402 career on-base percentage to make himself a true all-around threat at the plate. In 2002, he won the Roberto Clemente Award, and he was one of the few power hitters of the era to never be tied to steroids. Great guy, great hitter, Hall of Famer. Easy.

3. Edgar Martinez (309 HR, .312/.418/.515 slash, 49 SB, 147 wRC+, 65.5 fWAR)

If you don't think Edgar Martinez belongs in the Hall of Fame, you are wrong. It's true that he was a DH for most of his career and was a butcher in the field when he was out there, but how many times have you stopped and thought about Babe Ruth's defense? Or Ted Williams? Or Willie Stargell? They were all terrible, and if you're reaction is "well at least they played defense," I'm not exactly sure why going out into the field and hurting their team with their gloves is any better than DH'ing, and I'm sure they would have spent much of their careers at DH had the position been available. Now for Edgar's offense: his 147 career wRC+ places him 33rd all time, ahead of Mike Schmidt (147), Willie McCovey (145), Willie Stargell (145), Harmon Killebrew (142), Chipper Jones (141), Alex Rodriguez (141), Mike Piazza (140), and...you get it. Martinez didn't hit for as much power as some of the other guys, having only hit more than 30 home runs in a season once, but he was an on-base machine. His .418 on-base percentage ranks 21st all time, sandwiched between #20 Frank Thomas and #22 Stan Musial. Combine that with power, and he absolutely deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame.

4. Vladimir Guerrero (449 HR, .318/.379/.553 slash, 181 SB, 136 wRC+, 54.3 fWAR)

Vlad may have only played sixteen seasons, but he was a one-man wrecking crew at the plate nearly the entire time he was in the majors. For eleven years from 1998-2008, when offense in baseball was at its highest, Guerrero never posted a wRC+ below 129, meaning he was at worst 29% better at the plate than league average in any given year. He won the 2004 AL MVP by slashing .337/.391/.598 with 39 home runs, and that was only his fourth best season by fWAR (5.9) and his third best by wRC+ (154). Guerrero comes with significant faults away from his hitting, including his mediocre defense and his relative lack of longevity, but his prime, both in peak and length, matches up with almost any non-legendary hitter in the Hall. The only point of contention I have with his offense is his low walk rate (8.1% career) but his high batting average (.318) ensured that his on-base percentage would still be high enough (.379) and he hit for so much power that overall, I am not worried about the low walk rate. If anything, his tendency to swing at (and hit) everything got into pitchers heads enough that it could be seen as a bonus.

5. Andruw Jones (434 HR, .254/.337/.486 slash, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.1 fWAR)

Starting with Andruw Jones, I am less adamant about these next players, but I still believe they are Hall of Famers and would be included on my ballot accordingly. Jones wasn't a legendary hitter, slashing "just" .254/.337/.486 for his career and finishing with a 111 wRC+, just 11% above league average. He was average when it came to getting on base, had a good amount of pop (he did hit 51 home runs in 2005), and could steal a few bases. Offensively, that's an All Star package, but not a Hall of Fame one. Where Jones stood out was in center field, where he won ten straight Gold Gloves and was regarded as potentially the best ever. It's hard to quantify defense and even harder to compare quantified values with players from other eras, but in a time when hitters were blasting baseballs deep into the outfield, nothing fell around Jones in center field. Combine that with 434 home runs over 17 years, and Jones is a Hall of Famer.

6. Mike Mussina (270-153, 3.68 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 2813/785 K/BB, 3562.2 IP)

A 3.68 career ERA doesn't necessarily scream "Hall of Famer," but Mike Mussina deserves the call. For eighteen years, he pitched in hitters' parks (first in Baltimore then in New York) in a hitters' era in a strong division. When you look away from the raw 3.68 ERA, his 82 career ERA- (adjusted to league average, park-adjusted, lower is better) is comparable to that of John Smoltz (81), Juan Marichal (81), Bob Feller (82), and Ron Guidry (83). I am not as confident in pitching WAR as I am in hitting WAR, but Mussina's 82.2 fWAR ranks him 17th all time among pitchers, behind #16 Bob Gibson and ahead of #18 Fergie Jenkins. He topped 150 innings for seventeen straight seasons from 1992-2008, making his starts every fifth day as dependably as anyone. Had he pitched his career in another era and another ballpark, his ERA could be half a run lower and he'd be a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame. Combine his longevity with his performance, and Mike Mussina belongs in the Hall of Fame.

7. Curt Schilling (216-146, 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3116/711 K/BB, 3261 IP)

Schilling may not have been as consistent as Mussina, but he had higher peaks and overall, his numbers are about equal. His 79.8 fWAR is just behind Mussina's 82.2, ranking him 20th all time. His 80 ERA- is also just ahead of Mussina over slightly fewer innings. His peaks were incredible, as he put up four seasons of at least 7.2 fWAR, and in 2002, he racked up 9.3 by going 23-7 with a 3.23 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 316/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games (35 starts) in an extremely hitter-friendly Arizona ballpark in the middle of the Steroid Era. He also reached 300 strikeouts in 1997 and 1998. He had a bitter relationship with the media throughout his career, which has likely suppressed his votes, but I believe he has done enough to warrant a call to the Hall of Fame.

8. Billy Wagner (47-40, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1196/300 K/BB, 903 IP)

No, the best reliever on the ballot is not Trevor Hoffman, but Billy Wagner; I don't care how many saves Hoffman had. Though Wagner missed portions of some seasons to injury, he finished his career with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, striking out batters at ridiculous rates while keeping runners off the bases and establishing himself as the greatest closer of all time not named Mariano Rivera. His 24.1 career fWAR is the sixth highest ever for a reliever, and the five above him all threw significantly more innings. RE24 accumulates the change in run expectancy between each event (strikeout, hit, etc.), and it's very useful in measuring the situation to situation effectiveness of a reliever; Wagner's 198.17 is the second most of all time among relievers, behind only Rivera. In win-probability added, which is a pretty decent metric for measuring "clutchness," Wagner is fifth at 28.40, with three of the four ahead of him having thrown significantly more innings again (though Joe Nathan has thrown many fewer, surprisingly). On an out-for-out basis, Wagner is the best closer ever after Rivera.

9. Trevor Hoffman (61-75, 2.87 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 1133/307 K/BB, 1089.1 IP)

Wagner may be better, but Hoffman is still one of the greatest relievers ever. He made over one thousand appearances over eighteen seasons, making at least 47 appearances in each of those seasons except 2003. His 26.1 fWAR is the third most ever for a reliever, behind only Mariano Rivera (39.2) and Goose Gossage (28.9). He is one of ten relievers to ever pitch over one thousand games, and of those, only Mariano Rivera (2.06) and Kent Tekulve (2.85) have a lower ERA than his 2.87. Wagner was clearly the better pitcher on and inning for inning basis, but Hoffman's longevity and consistency is what makes him one of the greatest of all time.

10. Larry Walker (383 HR, .313/.400/.565 slash, 230 SB, 140 wRC+, 68.7 fWAR)

Larry Walker is a tough call because he spent nine and a half seasons in Colorado, including his prime, in the days before the humidor. However, his numbers were so outrageous during that prime, especially from 1997-2002, that even the humidor-less Coors Field can't explain away those numbers. In 1997, his best season, he cracked 49 home runs and slashed .366/.452/.720 while stealing 33 bases, good for a 177 wRC+ and 9.1 fWAR. Using wRC+, which adjusts for ballpark and league production, we can find a recent similar season with a more neutral context: this past season, Aaron Judge put up a 173 wRC+ by slashing .284/.422/.627 with 52 home runs. His career 140 wRC+ ranks 68th all time and puts him on the same level as David Ortiz and Frank Howard. At the same time, he just breaks even in defensive value, making him one of just 20 players with positive defensive value and a 140 wRC+. Throw in his 230 stolen bases, and that list of twenty drops to eleven for players with at least 200 stolen bases. Context be damned, Walker had a fantastic career.

Steroid Users Left Off (see steroid primer)

Barry Bonds (762 HR, .298/.444/.607 slash, 514 SB, 173 wRC+, 164.4 fWAR)

Roger Clemens (354-184, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 4672/1580 K/BB, 4916.2 IP)

Manny Ramirez (555 HR, .312/.411/.585 slash, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR)

Gary Sheffield (509 HR, .292/.393/.514 slash, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR)*

Sammy Sosa (609 HR, .273/.344/.534 slash, 234 SB, 124 wRC+, 60.1 fWAR)

*Sheffield was named in the Mitchell Report but has significantly less evidence against him as the other names. However, he's a borderline candidate as it is, and the doubt from the steroid allegations is enough to push more deserving players in.

Left Off

Scott Rolen (316 HR, .281/.364/.490 slash, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 70.1 fWAR)

Rolen is very close to being a Hall of Famer, and if the ballot wasn't limited to ten names, I might add him on. For now, though, Rolen will be left off due to other players being more deserving. Rolen was a very good hitter over his career, slashing .281/.364/.490 over a seventeen year career, but where he really shined was on defense. He picked up eight Gold Gloves between 1998 and 2010, and Fangraphs backs up his defensive prowess through their metrics. The high defensive value combined with his solid offense (a career 122 wRC+ is not too shabby) gives him 70.1 fWAR, more than any other non-steroid using hitter on the ballot aside from Chipper Jones, but I'm not as confident in Fangraphs' defensive metrics and will leave him off, at least for this year, due to uncertainty.

Fred McGriff (493 HR, .284/.377/.509 slash, 72 SB, 134 wRC+, 56.9 fWAR)

McGriff was a great hitter, hitting nearly 500 home runs and going sixteen seasons from 1987-2002 without posting an on-base percentage below .350. However, he provided no value on defense, which we saw with Jim Thome and Edgar Martinez wasn't enough to outright disqualify someone, but the offense just wasn't there for the era to alleviate it. His 134 wRC+ is pretty good, but if someone is going to get into the Hall of Fame, I'd like to see a little bit better if there is no defensive value being added. There were so many great power hitters in the era, even ones that weren't linked to steroids, that not everybody can get in.

Omar Vizquel (80 HR, .272/.336/.352 slash, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.6 fWAR)

Omar Vizquel was a legendary shortstop defensively, and with a career that spanned 24 seasons from 1989-2012, Vizquel has to at least be considered for the Hall of Fame. However, I can't "vote" for him because he was utterly useless on offense. It may seem hypocritical because I included "useless" defenders Jim Thome and Edgar Martinez, but I do value offense more than defense and a career .688 OPS (and .310 wOBA) is an outright liability in a lineup where offense is at an all time high. Only twice, in 1999 and 2002, did Vizquel produce more offense than the average hitter by wRC+, and he finished at 83 for his career. For context, some recent players with similar levels of offense include Mark Kotsay (84), Ben Revere (82), Craig Counsell (82), Gordon Beckham (81), and Jose Iglesias (81). This doesn't take away from the fact that Vizquel was an amazing player, as his defense was truly remarkable, but his ineptitude at the plate is enough to keep him out of the Hall for me.

Johan Santana (139-78, 3.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 1988/567 K/BB, 2025.2 IP)

Johan Santana was great, and at his prime from 2002-2010, he was a Hall of Famer. However, shoulder problems forced him to retire after just twelve seasons, and it's tough to convince a voter that 2025.2 innings is enough to get into the Hall of Fame. In fact, only one starting pitcher in the Hall of Fame threw fewer innings than Santana: Dizzy Dean, who went 150-83 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 1967.1 innings over twelve seasons. Santana does best Dean in both fWAR (45.3 to 40.9) and ERA- (74 to 77), but at this point, there are more deserving players on the ballot and Santana will have to wait. We can look back on his prime and see that from 2002-2010, only Roy Halladay (50.4) and Roy Oswalt (44) accumulated more fWAR than Santana (43.7), while his 2.90 ERA was tops among starting pitchers. Maybe in a few years.

Jeff Kent (377 HR, .290/.356/.500 slash, 94 SB, 123 wRC+, 56.1 fWAR)

Jeff Kent had a long career with respectable consistency, posting at least a 98 wRC+ in each of his seventeen seasons and reaching at least 120 in ten straight seasons from 1998-2007. He also played second base, occupying a key position and providing adequate defense there. He was also (a bit surprisingly) the 2000 NL MVP, slashing .334/.424/.596 with 33 home runs, good for a 159 wRC+ and 7.4 fWAR. It all adds up to a very good package, but unfortunately, I don't see it as quite enough to warrant a trip to the Hall of Fame in an era where so many players put up comparable numbers.

Others of note: Jamie Moyer (48.2 fWAR), Johnny Damon (44.5), Chris Carpenter (39.1), Carlos Zambrano (30.6), Carlos Lee (27.5)