Dodgers Get: Yu Darvish (6-9, 4.01 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 148/45 K/BB, Age 30)
Rangers Get: Willie Calhoun (23 HR, 67 RBI, .298 AVG, 3 SB, 131 wRC+ at AAA, Age 22)
Brendon Davis (9 HR, 43 RBI, .241 AVG, 3 SB, 115 wRC+ at Class A and High Class A, Age 20)
A.J. Alexy (2-6, 3.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 86/37 K/BB at Class A, Age 19
If somebody other than the Dodgers wants to win the National League pennant, they're really going to have to earn it. The best team in baseball just got much better, adding Tony Cingrani, Tony Watson, and Yu Darvish in separate trades. Just to give you a feel for how good this team is, Brock Stewart is the likely man out of the rotation and he has yet to give up an earned run in 16.2 innings this season. Darvish joins Alex Wood (2.38 ERA, 0.99 WHIP), Rich Hill (3.35 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), Hyun-Jin Ryu (3.83 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), Kenta Maeda (4.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), and of course, an injured Clayton Kershaw (2.04 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) in the Dodgers' super-rotation. Once Kershaw returns, the next man out will probably be Ryu, who I could see shifted to a bullpen role. Darvish's ERA this year is 4.01, which is a career worst, and his 3.98 FIP and 3.81 xFIP aren't much better, but he also allowed ten runs in his last start, which bumped his ERA up from 3.44. Moving from Texas to Los Angeles will help his numbers, as the Dodgers have better defense and a better catcher when it comes to pitch framing, so expect a hot Darvish down the stretch. He'll be a free agent after the season, but the Dodgers' are all-in for 2017 and got him without giving up Walker Buehler, Alex Verdugo, Yadier Alvarez, etc. For his career, Darvish is 52-39 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, striking out 960 and walking 294 in 782.2 innings.
The main prospect going back to Texas is AAA second baseman/outfielder Willie Calhoun. The 22 year old was drafted in the fourth round out of Yavapai Junior College in Arizona in 2015, and he shot through the minors, reaching AA in 2016 and AAA in 2017. He's been very good with Oklahoma City this year, slashing .298/.357/.574 with 23 home runs and just 49 strikeouts in 99 games. It's an offense-heavy league, but his wRC+ still comes out to a very good 131. He'll be ready for a major league trial soon, where he could be a multi-category contributor as an above average major league hitter despite being just 5'8". Brendon Davis was drafted the fifth round out of a California high school in 2015, and while he hasn't wowed with his production, he's been good enough, slashing .245/.357/.403 with eight home runs in 86 games for Class A Great Lakes before a promotion to High Class A Rancho Cucamonga. So far in High A, he's slashed .200/.273/.400 with one home run in eight games, but it's a small sample size and at 20 years old, he has time to adjust. He has a high ceiling, as shown by his big bad speed and feel for hitting, but he strikes out a ton (30.8% of the time this year) and will have to tone down his approach. A.J. Alexy was just drafted in the eleventh round in 2016 out of a Pennsylvania high school, and he's quickly adapted to pro ball. Pitching for Class A Great Lakes at just 19 years old this year, he has a 3.67 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP through 19 starts, striking out 86 and walking 37 in 73.2 innings. He works with erratic fastball velocity, anywhere from 88 to 93, and throws a solid curveball and changeup. If everything works out, the 6'4" righty could wind up a useful starting pitcher for the Rangers.
Monday, July 31, 2017
Nationals Finish Bullpen Rebuild, Add Brandon Kintzler
Nationals Get: Brandon Kintzler (2-2, 2.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 28 SV, 27/11 K/BB, Age 33)
Twins Get: Tyler Watson (6-4, 4.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 98/24 K/BB at Class A, Age 20)
International bonus pool space
Not long after acquiring Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to fix a disaster of a bullpen, the Nationals added another high leverage reliever, Brandon Kintzler. The 6' righty has been a pretty underrated reliever for the majority of his career, and his big year this year includes a 2.78 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, though he has struck out just 27 over 45.1 innings. Hopefully, the Nationals will go with a closer-by-committee, but that seems unlikely, and it will probably be either Kintzler or Doolittle who does the closing. His 3.68 FIP and 4.08 xFIP aren't terrible, but they don't really back up his 2.78 ERA as well as you would want out of a back-end guy. Overall, I'm lukewarm on this trade (I would have preferred Brad Hand or Brad Brach for the Nationals), but now with three new relievers, the bullpen is good enough that at least it's not a liability anymore. However way you look at it, the Nationals turned a 34th round pick and some bonus pool space into two months of a very good reliever. A free agent after the season, Kintzler has a career ERA of 3.24 with a 1.25 WHIP, having struck out 196 batters and walked 70 in 280.2 innings.
Going back to Minnesota is 2015 34th round pick Tyler Watson, a 20 year old left handed pitcher who has room to grow into his 6'5" frame. He's done nothing but outperform his low draft position (though he did fall more due to signability than due to a lack of talent), reaching Class A Hagerstown last year and pitching quite well there this year. Over 18 games (17 starts), he is 6-4 with a 4.35 ERA, but he has struck out 98 and walked just 24 in 93 innings, leading to a much better 3.39 FIP. He pitches around 90 right now but with all that height, it's easy to see him adding more velocity. He's not too different from another member of the Suns rotation who was traded this year, McKenzie Mills. Watson is a long way off, but he's just 20 years old and all signs point to him trending upwards.
Twins Get: Tyler Watson (6-4, 4.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 98/24 K/BB at Class A, Age 20)
International bonus pool space
Not long after acquiring Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to fix a disaster of a bullpen, the Nationals added another high leverage reliever, Brandon Kintzler. The 6' righty has been a pretty underrated reliever for the majority of his career, and his big year this year includes a 2.78 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, though he has struck out just 27 over 45.1 innings. Hopefully, the Nationals will go with a closer-by-committee, but that seems unlikely, and it will probably be either Kintzler or Doolittle who does the closing. His 3.68 FIP and 4.08 xFIP aren't terrible, but they don't really back up his 2.78 ERA as well as you would want out of a back-end guy. Overall, I'm lukewarm on this trade (I would have preferred Brad Hand or Brad Brach for the Nationals), but now with three new relievers, the bullpen is good enough that at least it's not a liability anymore. However way you look at it, the Nationals turned a 34th round pick and some bonus pool space into two months of a very good reliever. A free agent after the season, Kintzler has a career ERA of 3.24 with a 1.25 WHIP, having struck out 196 batters and walked 70 in 280.2 innings.
Going back to Minnesota is 2015 34th round pick Tyler Watson, a 20 year old left handed pitcher who has room to grow into his 6'5" frame. He's done nothing but outperform his low draft position (though he did fall more due to signability than due to a lack of talent), reaching Class A Hagerstown last year and pitching quite well there this year. Over 18 games (17 starts), he is 6-4 with a 4.35 ERA, but he has struck out 98 and walked just 24 in 93 innings, leading to a much better 3.39 FIP. He pitches around 90 right now but with all that height, it's easy to see him adding more velocity. He's not too different from another member of the Suns rotation who was traded this year, McKenzie Mills. Watson is a long way off, but he's just 20 years old and all signs point to him trending upwards.
Yankees Make Splash, Add Sonny Gray
Yankees Get: Sonny Gray (6-5, 3.43 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 94/30 K/BB, Age 27)
International bonus pool money
A's Get: Dustin Fowler (13 HR, 43 RBI, .293 AVG, 13 SB, 137 wRC+ at AAA, Age 22)
Jorge Mateo (8 HR, 37 RBI, .258 AVG, 39 SB, 114 wRC+ at High Class A and AA, Age 22)
James Kaprielian (out for season, Age 23)
This could be one of the biggest trades of the deadline when it's all said and done. Not long after adding Jaime Garcia to the rotation, the Bombers added Sonny Gray, who is in the middle of a big comeback season with the A's. A year after going 5-11 with a 5.69 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 22 starts, he's 6-5 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 18 starts, almost back to his ace-like 2014-2015 level. Among Yankees starters, only Luis Severino has put up better numbers than Gray, so his impact will be huge. Making this even sweeter for the Yankees is the fact that Gray still has two years of arbitration left, meaning he's under team control through 2019. Considering the fairly stacked rotation of Severino, C.C. Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, Jordan Montgomery, and Garcia, the Yankees didn't necessarily need another starter, but a guy like Gray makes an impact no matter how good your rotation is. As of now, it looks like rookie Jordan Montgomery will be the odd man out despite a solid season (4.15 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), as he has already thrown 110.2 innings this year and his career high is 139.1 in the minors. For his career, Gray is 44-36 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.
The A's got three high ceiling prospects for Gray, with Dustin Fowler being the closest to making an impact. Fowler would have actually spent a good portion of the season as the Yankees' starting right fielder had he not crashed into a wall in the first inning of his debut and gotten season ending surgery. Still, he had a great year at AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre (.293/.329/.542, 13 HR), and he'll be just 23 at the start of 2018, where he could break camp as a starter for the A's and is an early candidate for AL Rookie of the Year. The power-speed-defense combination will make him a valuable player for Oakland in the near future, though his one major flaw is his low walk rate (4.5% career in minors, 4.8% this year). He'll never be an effective leadoff man if he can't push his OBP over .320, but some increased patience could go a long way for the young outfielder. Jorge Mateo has an even wider gap between his ceiling and floor than Fowler, showcasing plus-plus speed and solid all around tools otherwise. After stealing 82 bases for Class A Charleston and High Class A Tampa in 2015, some of the prospect sheen wore off after a tough 2016 at Tampa that also included a two week suspension for insubordination. Back at Tampa again in 2017, he slashed a mediocre .240/.288/.400 with four home runs and 28 stolen bases in 69 games in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, but he's actually been much better since a promotion to AA Trenton. Over 30 games in the Eastern League, Mateo is slashing .300/.381/.525 with four home runs and 11 stolen bases, perhaps re-establishing himself as a top prospect. He might not be in the majors until late 2018 or 2019 at the earliest, but he just turned 22 in June and he has time to develop into a valuable middle infielder. Lastly, James Kaprielian is sitting out the 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery, so other Yankees pitching prospects such as Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield, and Domingo Acevedo had a chance to move ahead of him on prospect depth charts. A first rounder out of UCLA in 2015, he was supposed to be a low-ceiling, quick to the big leagues, back-end starter who carried little risk. However, he's thrown just 29.1 pro innings, though he's been very effective with a 2.45 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 36/7 strikeout to walk ratio. Once he's healthy in 2018, he could move through the minors quickly and help the A's rotation as soon as 2019.
International bonus pool money
A's Get: Dustin Fowler (13 HR, 43 RBI, .293 AVG, 13 SB, 137 wRC+ at AAA, Age 22)
Jorge Mateo (8 HR, 37 RBI, .258 AVG, 39 SB, 114 wRC+ at High Class A and AA, Age 22)
James Kaprielian (out for season, Age 23)
This could be one of the biggest trades of the deadline when it's all said and done. Not long after adding Jaime Garcia to the rotation, the Bombers added Sonny Gray, who is in the middle of a big comeback season with the A's. A year after going 5-11 with a 5.69 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 22 starts, he's 6-5 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 18 starts, almost back to his ace-like 2014-2015 level. Among Yankees starters, only Luis Severino has put up better numbers than Gray, so his impact will be huge. Making this even sweeter for the Yankees is the fact that Gray still has two years of arbitration left, meaning he's under team control through 2019. Considering the fairly stacked rotation of Severino, C.C. Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, Jordan Montgomery, and Garcia, the Yankees didn't necessarily need another starter, but a guy like Gray makes an impact no matter how good your rotation is. As of now, it looks like rookie Jordan Montgomery will be the odd man out despite a solid season (4.15 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), as he has already thrown 110.2 innings this year and his career high is 139.1 in the minors. For his career, Gray is 44-36 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.
The A's got three high ceiling prospects for Gray, with Dustin Fowler being the closest to making an impact. Fowler would have actually spent a good portion of the season as the Yankees' starting right fielder had he not crashed into a wall in the first inning of his debut and gotten season ending surgery. Still, he had a great year at AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre (.293/.329/.542, 13 HR), and he'll be just 23 at the start of 2018, where he could break camp as a starter for the A's and is an early candidate for AL Rookie of the Year. The power-speed-defense combination will make him a valuable player for Oakland in the near future, though his one major flaw is his low walk rate (4.5% career in minors, 4.8% this year). He'll never be an effective leadoff man if he can't push his OBP over .320, but some increased patience could go a long way for the young outfielder. Jorge Mateo has an even wider gap between his ceiling and floor than Fowler, showcasing plus-plus speed and solid all around tools otherwise. After stealing 82 bases for Class A Charleston and High Class A Tampa in 2015, some of the prospect sheen wore off after a tough 2016 at Tampa that also included a two week suspension for insubordination. Back at Tampa again in 2017, he slashed a mediocre .240/.288/.400 with four home runs and 28 stolen bases in 69 games in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, but he's actually been much better since a promotion to AA Trenton. Over 30 games in the Eastern League, Mateo is slashing .300/.381/.525 with four home runs and 11 stolen bases, perhaps re-establishing himself as a top prospect. He might not be in the majors until late 2018 or 2019 at the earliest, but he just turned 22 in June and he has time to develop into a valuable middle infielder. Lastly, James Kaprielian is sitting out the 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery, so other Yankees pitching prospects such as Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield, and Domingo Acevedo had a chance to move ahead of him on prospect depth charts. A first rounder out of UCLA in 2015, he was supposed to be a low-ceiling, quick to the big leagues, back-end starter who carried little risk. However, he's thrown just 29.1 pro innings, though he's been very effective with a 2.45 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 36/7 strikeout to walk ratio. Once he's healthy in 2018, he could move through the minors quickly and help the A's rotation as soon as 2019.
Astros Bolster Pitching Staff with Francisco Liriano
Astros Get: Francisco Liriano (6-5, 5.88 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 74/43 K/BB, Age 33)
Blue Jays Get: Nori Aoki (2 HR, 19 RBI, .272 AVG, 5 SB, 87 wRC+, Age 35)
Teoscar Hernandez (12 HR, 44 RBI, .279 AVG, 12 SB at AAA, 118 wRC+, Age 24)
Everyone knows the Astros' offense is a forced to be reckoned with this season, as they have had no problem out-slugging opponents with Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, etc. etc. etc. The pitching staff hasn't been quite on the same level, and while that's not an issue in the regular season with the 'stros beating up on the A's, Rangers, Angels, and Mariners, it may be a problem against the AL powerhouses in the playoffs. Liriano provides rotation depth in case Dallas Keuchel gets hurt again or Collin McHugh fails to solidify himself, but for now, he'll work out of the bullpen. He's made just 29 relief appearances in his career, but the hope is that he can add a few miles per hour to his fastball and sharpen his slider. He has been pretty ineffective as a starter this year, posting a 5.88 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP over 18 starts, allowing fewer than two runs in just two of those starts. He has a history of bouncing between effective and ineffective seasons, and it doesn't look like this is his year, but crazy things can happen when you move to the bullpen. He'll be a free agent after the season, and for his career, he is 102-97 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 303 games (274 starts). Over his 29 relief appearances in his career, he has a 5.15 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP, striking out 58 and walking 17 in 43.2 innings.
The Astros dealt from a position of strength, as the outfield is already crowded with Josh Reddick, George Springer (once he comes back from the quad injury), Jake Marisnick, and rookies Derek Fisher and Tony Kemp in addition to Aoki and Hernandez. Nori Aoki will work in with the Toronto outfield with Jose Bautista, Kevin Pillar, and Steve Pearce, bringing a mediocre .272/.323/.371 slash line over 70 games. He's a solid hitter who can get on base, but with a career-low .323 OBP this year without much power, his value is closer to that of a solid fourth outfielder than as a starter. He has one year of arbitration after 2017, so it's not just a rental for Toronto, and he should be a part of their plans next year. For his career, Aoki has 30 home runs and a .285/.350/.385 slash line over 719 games. Teoscar Hernandez was blocked in Houston, fighting with rookies Fisher and Kemp to take playing time from Reddick and Marisnick. The 24 year old slashed .230/.304/.420 with four home runs over 41 big league games last year, but has spent 2017 with AAA Fresno, slashing .279/.369/.485 with 12 home runs over 79 games. His power/speed combo makes him an intriguing prospect for the near-future, possibly even this year.
Blue Jays Get: Nori Aoki (2 HR, 19 RBI, .272 AVG, 5 SB, 87 wRC+, Age 35)
Teoscar Hernandez (12 HR, 44 RBI, .279 AVG, 12 SB at AAA, 118 wRC+, Age 24)
Everyone knows the Astros' offense is a forced to be reckoned with this season, as they have had no problem out-slugging opponents with Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, etc. etc. etc. The pitching staff hasn't been quite on the same level, and while that's not an issue in the regular season with the 'stros beating up on the A's, Rangers, Angels, and Mariners, it may be a problem against the AL powerhouses in the playoffs. Liriano provides rotation depth in case Dallas Keuchel gets hurt again or Collin McHugh fails to solidify himself, but for now, he'll work out of the bullpen. He's made just 29 relief appearances in his career, but the hope is that he can add a few miles per hour to his fastball and sharpen his slider. He has been pretty ineffective as a starter this year, posting a 5.88 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP over 18 starts, allowing fewer than two runs in just two of those starts. He has a history of bouncing between effective and ineffective seasons, and it doesn't look like this is his year, but crazy things can happen when you move to the bullpen. He'll be a free agent after the season, and for his career, he is 102-97 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 303 games (274 starts). Over his 29 relief appearances in his career, he has a 5.15 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP, striking out 58 and walking 17 in 43.2 innings.
The Astros dealt from a position of strength, as the outfield is already crowded with Josh Reddick, George Springer (once he comes back from the quad injury), Jake Marisnick, and rookies Derek Fisher and Tony Kemp in addition to Aoki and Hernandez. Nori Aoki will work in with the Toronto outfield with Jose Bautista, Kevin Pillar, and Steve Pearce, bringing a mediocre .272/.323/.371 slash line over 70 games. He's a solid hitter who can get on base, but with a career-low .323 OBP this year without much power, his value is closer to that of a solid fourth outfielder than as a starter. He has one year of arbitration after 2017, so it's not just a rental for Toronto, and he should be a part of their plans next year. For his career, Aoki has 30 home runs and a .285/.350/.385 slash line over 719 games. Teoscar Hernandez was blocked in Houston, fighting with rookies Fisher and Kemp to take playing time from Reddick and Marisnick. The 24 year old slashed .230/.304/.420 with four home runs over 41 big league games last year, but has spent 2017 with AAA Fresno, slashing .279/.369/.485 with 12 home runs over 79 games. His power/speed combo makes him an intriguing prospect for the near-future, possibly even this year.
Red Sox Add Addison Reed to Bullpen
Red Sox Get: Addison Reed (1-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 19 SV, 48/6 K/BB, Age 28)
Mets Get: Jamie Callahan (5-2, 3.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6 SV, 56/13 K/BB at AA and AAA, Age 22)
Stephen Nogosek (4-4, 3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 19 SV, 63/21 K/BB at Class A and High Class A, Age 22)
Gerson Bautista (3-2, 5.16 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 4 SV, 53/28 K/BB at High Class A, Age 22)
The Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays are all going for it, and the AL East is going to be very fun for the rest of the season. The Yanks have already acquired Todd Frazier, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, and Jaime Garcia, while the Rays have added Lucas Duda, Adeiny Hechavarria, Sergio Romo, and Dan Jennings. So far, the Red Sox have only acquired infielder Eduardo Nunez, but they added star reliever Addison Reed this morning. Craig Kimbrel has been great in the ninth inning (1.24 ERA, 0.60 WHIP), but they've had trouble bridging the gap from starters to Kimbrel, with Matt Barnes (3.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), Fernando Abad (3.09 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), and Heath Hembree (3.54 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) being more good than great and Tyler Thornburg out for the season. Addison Reed will take over as set-up man, carrying a 2.57 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP through 48 appearances, posting an excellent 48/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 49 innings. Those six walks account for just 3% of the hitters he has faced, and one of them was intentional anyways to Nationals star Daniel Murphy. This allows every member of the Boston bullpen to shift down a leverage level, putting them into situations they fit better in. Reed is a free agent after the season, so Boston is going for it this year. For his career, the San Diego State alum is 17-20 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 397/95 strikeout to walk ratio in 381 appearances.
The Mets traded two minor league pitchers for Reed in 2015, and all they got was two years of an excellent reliever and three more 22 year old right handed relievers. Neither of those original two guys (Matt Koch, Miller Diaz) is expected to make a big impact at the major league level, so it's safe to say this trade was a steal for the Mets. Now that they acquired A.J. Ramos for this year and next, Reed is fairly expendable, and they got quantity over quality for him. Instead of going for one high upside starter, they got three relievers, one of which we can expect to work out. In the likely scenario, the Mets essentially got full control of one useful reliever for two months of a great one. The most advanced player in this package is Jamie Callahan, who is already in AAA. The 6'2" righty started the season with AA Portland, but the Eastern League proved to be no match for him, as he posted a 1.38 ERA and a 0.62 WHIP over ten appearances, striking out 20 and walking none in 13 innings. Bumped to AAA Pawtucket, he hasn't been quite so overpowering, posting a 4.03 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 22 appearances and striking out 36 to 13 walks in 29 innings. His combination of a mid 90's fastball and a hard cutter have helped him succeed in relief, and he has the makings of being a solid 7th inning guy in the near future. At 22, he has time to adjust to AAA. Stephen Nogosek was just drafted in the sixth round out of Oregon last year, and the Sox started him off at Class A Greenville. There, he posted a 2.55 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, striking out 45 and walking 11 in 35.1 innings. Promoted to High Class A Salem, he's been decent, posting a 4.08 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over 13 appearances, striking out 18 and walking 10 in 17.2 innings. Like Callahan, he's a fastball/cutter guy, but he can change the speed and shape of both pitches and that should be a useful tool as he moves up the ladder. Gerson Bautista has spent the entire season at High Class A Salem, struggling to a 5.16 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP, striking out 53 but walking 28 in 45.1 innings. He has the highest ceiling out of the three, as his fastball is regularly up to 97 and has touched 100, and his slider has the makings of a plus pitch. However, he struggles with command, and that causes him to be hit hard occasionally.
Mets Get: Jamie Callahan (5-2, 3.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6 SV, 56/13 K/BB at AA and AAA, Age 22)
Stephen Nogosek (4-4, 3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 19 SV, 63/21 K/BB at Class A and High Class A, Age 22)
Gerson Bautista (3-2, 5.16 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 4 SV, 53/28 K/BB at High Class A, Age 22)
The Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays are all going for it, and the AL East is going to be very fun for the rest of the season. The Yanks have already acquired Todd Frazier, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, and Jaime Garcia, while the Rays have added Lucas Duda, Adeiny Hechavarria, Sergio Romo, and Dan Jennings. So far, the Red Sox have only acquired infielder Eduardo Nunez, but they added star reliever Addison Reed this morning. Craig Kimbrel has been great in the ninth inning (1.24 ERA, 0.60 WHIP), but they've had trouble bridging the gap from starters to Kimbrel, with Matt Barnes (3.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), Fernando Abad (3.09 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), and Heath Hembree (3.54 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) being more good than great and Tyler Thornburg out for the season. Addison Reed will take over as set-up man, carrying a 2.57 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP through 48 appearances, posting an excellent 48/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 49 innings. Those six walks account for just 3% of the hitters he has faced, and one of them was intentional anyways to Nationals star Daniel Murphy. This allows every member of the Boston bullpen to shift down a leverage level, putting them into situations they fit better in. Reed is a free agent after the season, so Boston is going for it this year. For his career, the San Diego State alum is 17-20 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 397/95 strikeout to walk ratio in 381 appearances.
The Mets traded two minor league pitchers for Reed in 2015, and all they got was two years of an excellent reliever and three more 22 year old right handed relievers. Neither of those original two guys (Matt Koch, Miller Diaz) is expected to make a big impact at the major league level, so it's safe to say this trade was a steal for the Mets. Now that they acquired A.J. Ramos for this year and next, Reed is fairly expendable, and they got quantity over quality for him. Instead of going for one high upside starter, they got three relievers, one of which we can expect to work out. In the likely scenario, the Mets essentially got full control of one useful reliever for two months of a great one. The most advanced player in this package is Jamie Callahan, who is already in AAA. The 6'2" righty started the season with AA Portland, but the Eastern League proved to be no match for him, as he posted a 1.38 ERA and a 0.62 WHIP over ten appearances, striking out 20 and walking none in 13 innings. Bumped to AAA Pawtucket, he hasn't been quite so overpowering, posting a 4.03 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 22 appearances and striking out 36 to 13 walks in 29 innings. His combination of a mid 90's fastball and a hard cutter have helped him succeed in relief, and he has the makings of being a solid 7th inning guy in the near future. At 22, he has time to adjust to AAA. Stephen Nogosek was just drafted in the sixth round out of Oregon last year, and the Sox started him off at Class A Greenville. There, he posted a 2.55 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, striking out 45 and walking 11 in 35.1 innings. Promoted to High Class A Salem, he's been decent, posting a 4.08 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over 13 appearances, striking out 18 and walking 10 in 17.2 innings. Like Callahan, he's a fastball/cutter guy, but he can change the speed and shape of both pitches and that should be a useful tool as he moves up the ladder. Gerson Bautista has spent the entire season at High Class A Salem, struggling to a 5.16 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP, striking out 53 but walking 28 in 45.1 innings. He has the highest ceiling out of the three, as his fastball is regularly up to 97 and has touched 100, and his slider has the makings of a plus pitch. However, he struggles with command, and that causes him to be hit hard occasionally.
Justin Wilson and Alex Avila to Cubs to Kick Off Deadline Day
Cubs Get: Justin Wilson (3-4, 2.68 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 13 SV, 55/16 K/BB, Age 29)
Alex Avila (11 HR, 32 RBI, .274 AVG, 0 SB, 133 wRC+, Age 30)
Tigers Get: Jeimer Candelario (1 HR, 3 RBI, .152 AVG, 0 SB, 36 wRC+, Age 23)
Isaac Paredes (7 HR, 49 RBI, .264 AVG, 2 SB, 112 wRC+ at Class A, Age 18)
A player to be named later or cash
The Cubs have underperformed this season, but they've been hot lately, and at 56-48, they're back in first place in the NL Central. On paper, they're still extremely strong (think Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Baez, Heyward on offense, Lester, Arrieta, Quintana, Hendricks in rotation), but the bullpen has been more good than excellent for them this year. Wade Davis has been good as closer (2.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), and Pedro Strop (2.52 ERA, 1.14 WHIP), Carl Edwards Jr. (2.51 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), and Koji Uehara (3.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) have been good behind him, but Brian Duensing (2.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) has been their only consistent lefty in the bullpen. So, they acquired lefty Justin Wilson, who is in the middle of a career year in Detroit (2.68 ERA, 0.94 WHIP). He's struck out 35% of the batters he's faced this year, including 43.2% of lefties, and he'll be a perfect fit for the Cubbies as they look to repeat as World Series Champions. Wilson isn't a rental, either, as he has one more year of arbitration and is therefore controllable through 2018. For his career, he has quietly been very good, going 21-14 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, striking out 313 and walking 114 in 298.1 innings. Also going to Chicago is catcher Alex Avila, who, aside from 57 games with the White Sox in 2016, has played his entire career for the Tigers. Mainly a backup catcher after his huge 2011 season (.295/.389/.506, 19 HR, 140 wRC+), he has had a big bounce back season in 2017, slashing .274/.394/.475 with 17 home runs and a 133 wRC+, accumulating 1.9 fWAR when you add in his solid defense. The Cubs' current catcher, Willson Contreras, has been good this year (.269/.340/.485, 16 HR), but Victor Caratini will need to go back to the minors to make room for Avila. Avila is a free agent after the season, and he has 84 career home runs to go along with a .243/.350/.402 slash line.
The main return to Detroit for its ninth inning battery is Jeimer Candelario, the top Cubs prospect left after the graduations of Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, and Javier Baez, as well as the trades of Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Eloy Jimenez, and Dylan Cease. Candelario, a third baseman, has hit well at AAA Iowa this year (.266/.361/.507, 12 HR), but he's blocked by you know who in Chicago and never really had a clear future in Chicago. He'll be a better fit in Detroit, though he'll still be blocked by Nick Castellanos. He's a very polished hitter who could put up above average numbers at the major league level in the near future, and at worst he should be a solid bench bat in Detroit starting this season. If it weren't for Kris Bryant, he'd be a major leaguer right now, and hopefully a change of scenery will do the 23 year old good. He has played in 16 major league games over the past two seasons, but without regular playing time, he hasn't been able to find his groove, slashing just .136/.240/.250 with one home run in 50 plate appearances. Isaac Paredes, who just turned 18 in February, is in only his second pro season, but he has played well at Class A South Bend against older competition this year. Through 92 games, he is slashing .264/.343/.401 with seven home runs and 25 doubles, and while those might not be eye-popping numbers, they're very credible for a player of his age and experience. A shortstop right now, he may have to move to second base or third base in the future, but being able to stick in the infield takes pressure off his bat. He's a long way off, but he could be a productive infielder in Detroit next to Candelario in a few years.
Alex Avila (11 HR, 32 RBI, .274 AVG, 0 SB, 133 wRC+, Age 30)
Tigers Get: Jeimer Candelario (1 HR, 3 RBI, .152 AVG, 0 SB, 36 wRC+, Age 23)
Isaac Paredes (7 HR, 49 RBI, .264 AVG, 2 SB, 112 wRC+ at Class A, Age 18)
A player to be named later or cash
The Cubs have underperformed this season, but they've been hot lately, and at 56-48, they're back in first place in the NL Central. On paper, they're still extremely strong (think Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Baez, Heyward on offense, Lester, Arrieta, Quintana, Hendricks in rotation), but the bullpen has been more good than excellent for them this year. Wade Davis has been good as closer (2.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), and Pedro Strop (2.52 ERA, 1.14 WHIP), Carl Edwards Jr. (2.51 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), and Koji Uehara (3.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) have been good behind him, but Brian Duensing (2.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) has been their only consistent lefty in the bullpen. So, they acquired lefty Justin Wilson, who is in the middle of a career year in Detroit (2.68 ERA, 0.94 WHIP). He's struck out 35% of the batters he's faced this year, including 43.2% of lefties, and he'll be a perfect fit for the Cubbies as they look to repeat as World Series Champions. Wilson isn't a rental, either, as he has one more year of arbitration and is therefore controllable through 2018. For his career, he has quietly been very good, going 21-14 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, striking out 313 and walking 114 in 298.1 innings. Also going to Chicago is catcher Alex Avila, who, aside from 57 games with the White Sox in 2016, has played his entire career for the Tigers. Mainly a backup catcher after his huge 2011 season (.295/.389/.506, 19 HR, 140 wRC+), he has had a big bounce back season in 2017, slashing .274/.394/.475 with 17 home runs and a 133 wRC+, accumulating 1.9 fWAR when you add in his solid defense. The Cubs' current catcher, Willson Contreras, has been good this year (.269/.340/.485, 16 HR), but Victor Caratini will need to go back to the minors to make room for Avila. Avila is a free agent after the season, and he has 84 career home runs to go along with a .243/.350/.402 slash line.
The main return to Detroit for its ninth inning battery is Jeimer Candelario, the top Cubs prospect left after the graduations of Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, and Javier Baez, as well as the trades of Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Eloy Jimenez, and Dylan Cease. Candelario, a third baseman, has hit well at AAA Iowa this year (.266/.361/.507, 12 HR), but he's blocked by you know who in Chicago and never really had a clear future in Chicago. He'll be a better fit in Detroit, though he'll still be blocked by Nick Castellanos. He's a very polished hitter who could put up above average numbers at the major league level in the near future, and at worst he should be a solid bench bat in Detroit starting this season. If it weren't for Kris Bryant, he'd be a major leaguer right now, and hopefully a change of scenery will do the 23 year old good. He has played in 16 major league games over the past two seasons, but without regular playing time, he hasn't been able to find his groove, slashing just .136/.240/.250 with one home run in 50 plate appearances. Isaac Paredes, who just turned 18 in February, is in only his second pro season, but he has played well at Class A South Bend against older competition this year. Through 92 games, he is slashing .264/.343/.401 with seven home runs and 25 doubles, and while those might not be eye-popping numbers, they're very credible for a player of his age and experience. A shortstop right now, he may have to move to second base or third base in the future, but being able to stick in the infield takes pressure off his bat. He's a long way off, but he could be a productive infielder in Detroit next to Candelario in a few years.
Sunday, July 30, 2017
Rockies Add Jonathan Lucroy, Hope For Turnaround
Rockies Get: Jonathan Lucroy (4 HR, 27 RBI, .242 AVG, 1 SB, 66 wRC+, Age 31)
Rangers Get: Player to be named later
By all accounts, Jonathan Lucroy's 2017 has been a disappointment to say the least. A year after slashing .292/.355/.500 with 24 home runs and a 123 wRC+, he's down to .242/.297/.338 with four home runs and a 66 wRC+. Accumulating a grand total of 0.2 fWAR this season, one of the game's top catchers has been essentially replacement level this year (versus 4.5 fWAR last year) and a change of scenery might be badly needed. Where better to go than to Colorado, where .240 hitters turn into stars in the high altitude? Making the situation even better for Lucroy is the fact that Rockies catchers have been awful this season, with Tony Wolters (.251/.349/.302, 52 wRC+), Ryan Hanigan (.259/.315/.358, 52 wRC+), and Dustin Garneau (.206/.260/.353, 41 wRC+) doing pretty much nothing from an offensive perspective. For a contending team, that's unacceptable, and it will be up to Lucroy to help remedy that. He'll be a free agent after the season, so it's now or never. For his career, Lucroy has 94 home runs, a .280/.339/.433 line, and 21 fWAR.
Rangers Get: Player to be named later
By all accounts, Jonathan Lucroy's 2017 has been a disappointment to say the least. A year after slashing .292/.355/.500 with 24 home runs and a 123 wRC+, he's down to .242/.297/.338 with four home runs and a 66 wRC+. Accumulating a grand total of 0.2 fWAR this season, one of the game's top catchers has been essentially replacement level this year (versus 4.5 fWAR last year) and a change of scenery might be badly needed. Where better to go than to Colorado, where .240 hitters turn into stars in the high altitude? Making the situation even better for Lucroy is the fact that Rockies catchers have been awful this season, with Tony Wolters (.251/.349/.302, 52 wRC+), Ryan Hanigan (.259/.315/.358, 52 wRC+), and Dustin Garneau (.206/.260/.353, 41 wRC+) doing pretty much nothing from an offensive perspective. For a contending team, that's unacceptable, and it will be up to Lucroy to help remedy that. He'll be a free agent after the season, so it's now or never. For his career, Lucroy has 94 home runs, a .280/.339/.433 line, and 21 fWAR.
Royals Acquire Melky Cabrera
Royals Get: Melky Cabrera (13 HR, 56 RBI, .295 AVG, 0 SB, 105 wRC+, Age 32)
Cash considerations
White Sox Get: A.J. Puckett (9-7, 3.90 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 98/46 K/BB at High Class A, Age 22)
Andre Davis (5-4, 4.83 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 87/23 K/BB at Class A, Age 23)
The red hot Royals, just coming off a nine game winning streak, realized they actually have a shot now at the postseason, and added outfield depth in Melky Cabrera. They had to give up a pair of solid pitching prospects to get him, but neither are elite, and Cabrera can help give the struggling Alex Gordon (.201/.294/.296, 5 HR) a break in left field. Cabrera is an on-base machine, and it has helped him post wRC+'s over 100 in three of the past four seasons. This year, he is slashing .295/.336/.436 with 13 home runs, though mediocre defense has caused him to be worth just 0.8 fWAR. He's just a rental, as he'll be a free agent after the season, but this may be the last year in the Royals' run of contention before they are forced to rebuild. For his career, Cabrera, who played for Kansas City in 2011, has 127 home runs and a career .286/.337/.418 slash line over 1618 games.
Two more prospects are being added to the White Sox' super-farm system, though neither has the elite status of Michael Kopech, Lucas Giolito, or Dylan Cease. A.J. Puckett was drafted in the second round (67th overall) last year out of Pepperdine after ranking 93rd on my pre-draft list, and he's met second round expectations so far. Through 20 starts at High Class A Wilmington this year, he's 9-7 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP, striking out 98 and walking 46 in 108.1 innings. He uses a fastball/changeup combination to get hitters out, but the development of his curveball will be his key to remaining a starter down the line, where he could be a #3 or #4 guy. If the curveball never develops, he can fall back as a solid reliever. The 22 year old earned some press before the 2016 draft due to having spent two weeks in 2011 in a medically-induced coma after a car accident. Andre Davis wasn't a very heralded prospect, even in the weak Royals system, where he was left out of MLB Pipeline's top 30 Royals prospects, and he'll likely get even more lost in the deep White Sox system, but he's an intriguing arm nonetheless. An eighth round pick out of Arkansas-Pine Bluff in 2015, Davis has spent 2017 with Class A Lexington, going 5-4 with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 18 starts, striking out 87 and walking 23 in 85.2 innings. I was on hand to see him start against Delmarva on July 13th, where he showcased a low 90's fastball and a promising curveball. The curve had good shape and was a swing and miss pitch when he could locate it, but it lacked sharpness at times and could be left up, where it would be hit. He's more of a depth piece than anything else, but he's 6'6" and left handed, so a conversion to the bullpen could shoot the 23 year old up depth charts.
Cash considerations
White Sox Get: A.J. Puckett (9-7, 3.90 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 98/46 K/BB at High Class A, Age 22)
Andre Davis (5-4, 4.83 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 87/23 K/BB at Class A, Age 23)
The red hot Royals, just coming off a nine game winning streak, realized they actually have a shot now at the postseason, and added outfield depth in Melky Cabrera. They had to give up a pair of solid pitching prospects to get him, but neither are elite, and Cabrera can help give the struggling Alex Gordon (.201/.294/.296, 5 HR) a break in left field. Cabrera is an on-base machine, and it has helped him post wRC+'s over 100 in three of the past four seasons. This year, he is slashing .295/.336/.436 with 13 home runs, though mediocre defense has caused him to be worth just 0.8 fWAR. He's just a rental, as he'll be a free agent after the season, but this may be the last year in the Royals' run of contention before they are forced to rebuild. For his career, Cabrera, who played for Kansas City in 2011, has 127 home runs and a career .286/.337/.418 slash line over 1618 games.
Two more prospects are being added to the White Sox' super-farm system, though neither has the elite status of Michael Kopech, Lucas Giolito, or Dylan Cease. A.J. Puckett was drafted in the second round (67th overall) last year out of Pepperdine after ranking 93rd on my pre-draft list, and he's met second round expectations so far. Through 20 starts at High Class A Wilmington this year, he's 9-7 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP, striking out 98 and walking 46 in 108.1 innings. He uses a fastball/changeup combination to get hitters out, but the development of his curveball will be his key to remaining a starter down the line, where he could be a #3 or #4 guy. If the curveball never develops, he can fall back as a solid reliever. The 22 year old earned some press before the 2016 draft due to having spent two weeks in 2011 in a medically-induced coma after a car accident. Andre Davis wasn't a very heralded prospect, even in the weak Royals system, where he was left out of MLB Pipeline's top 30 Royals prospects, and he'll likely get even more lost in the deep White Sox system, but he's an intriguing arm nonetheless. An eighth round pick out of Arkansas-Pine Bluff in 2015, Davis has spent 2017 with Class A Lexington, going 5-4 with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 18 starts, striking out 87 and walking 23 in 85.2 innings. I was on hand to see him start against Delmarva on July 13th, where he showcased a low 90's fastball and a promising curveball. The curve had good shape and was a swing and miss pitch when he could locate it, but it lacked sharpness at times and could be left up, where it would be hit. He's more of a depth piece than anything else, but he's 6'6" and left handed, so a conversion to the bullpen could shoot the 23 year old up depth charts.
Yankees Add Jaime Garcia to Rotation
Yankees Get: Jaime Garcia (5-7, 4.29 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 92/44 K/BB, Age 31)
Twins Get: Dietrich Enns (2-1, 1.99 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 47/10 K/BB at GCL and AAA, Age 26)
Zack Littell (14-1, 1.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 109/23 K/BB at High Class A and AA, Age 21)
When the Twins acquired Jaime Garcia from the Braves last week, they were 49-48 and just one game out of the Wild Card. Now, they're 50-52 and four games out of the Wild Card, so they flipped Garcia over to the Yankees for a pair of prospects. With Michael Pineda out for the season, Garcia will replace Caleb Smith in the New York rotation and help them try to fend off the Rays and Red Sox in the AL East. He's struggled with health in the past, but he's been healthy the past couple of seasons, and through 19 starts this year, he's 5-7 with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. With Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, C.C. Sabathia, and Jordan Montgomery also in the rotation, the Yankees should have no problems getting quality starts for the rest of the season. For his career, Garcia is 67-52 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over ten seasons, and he'll be a free agent after the season.
The Twins are getting two pitching prospects out of Garcia, with Dietrich Enns being the more advanced. Enns has done nothing but dominate since he was drafted out of Central Michigan in 2012, going 27-14 with a 1.87 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over his career, never posting an ERA above 2.94 in any given season. This year, in seven starts at AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre, he is 1-1 but with a 2.29 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, striking out 37 and walking 10 in 39.1 innings. He also made one dominant rehab start in the Gulf Coast League, striking out ten, walking none, and allowing just two hits over six shutout innings. The 6'1" lefty isn't overpowering but he works with what he has and should be a valuable back-end starter or reliever. Zack Littell had a breakout season in the mid-minors last year, going 13-6 with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 28 games (27 starts) for Class A Clinton and High Class A Bakersfield, and has built on it even more this year. Traded to the Yankees in the James Pazos deal, he started off with High Class A Tampa this year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, and he dominated by going 9-1 with a 1.77 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, striking out 57 and walking 15 in 71.1 innings. Promoted to AA Trenton, he kept up the good work, going 5-0 with a 2.05 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, striking out 52 and walking just eight in 44 innings. With his low 90's fastball and good curveball, he relies more on pitchability than on explosive stuff, but the 6'4" right has had no problems getting hitters out all the way up to AA.
Twins Get: Dietrich Enns (2-1, 1.99 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 47/10 K/BB at GCL and AAA, Age 26)
Zack Littell (14-1, 1.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 109/23 K/BB at High Class A and AA, Age 21)
When the Twins acquired Jaime Garcia from the Braves last week, they were 49-48 and just one game out of the Wild Card. Now, they're 50-52 and four games out of the Wild Card, so they flipped Garcia over to the Yankees for a pair of prospects. With Michael Pineda out for the season, Garcia will replace Caleb Smith in the New York rotation and help them try to fend off the Rays and Red Sox in the AL East. He's struggled with health in the past, but he's been healthy the past couple of seasons, and through 19 starts this year, he's 5-7 with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. With Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, C.C. Sabathia, and Jordan Montgomery also in the rotation, the Yankees should have no problems getting quality starts for the rest of the season. For his career, Garcia is 67-52 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over ten seasons, and he'll be a free agent after the season.
The Twins are getting two pitching prospects out of Garcia, with Dietrich Enns being the more advanced. Enns has done nothing but dominate since he was drafted out of Central Michigan in 2012, going 27-14 with a 1.87 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over his career, never posting an ERA above 2.94 in any given season. This year, in seven starts at AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre, he is 1-1 but with a 2.29 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, striking out 37 and walking 10 in 39.1 innings. He also made one dominant rehab start in the Gulf Coast League, striking out ten, walking none, and allowing just two hits over six shutout innings. The 6'1" lefty isn't overpowering but he works with what he has and should be a valuable back-end starter or reliever. Zack Littell had a breakout season in the mid-minors last year, going 13-6 with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 28 games (27 starts) for Class A Clinton and High Class A Bakersfield, and has built on it even more this year. Traded to the Yankees in the James Pazos deal, he started off with High Class A Tampa this year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, and he dominated by going 9-1 with a 1.77 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, striking out 57 and walking 15 in 71.1 innings. Promoted to AA Trenton, he kept up the good work, going 5-0 with a 2.05 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, striking out 52 and walking just eight in 44 innings. With his low 90's fastball and good curveball, he relies more on pitchability than on explosive stuff, but the 6'4" right has had no problems getting hitters out all the way up to AA.
Saturday, July 29, 2017
Mets Bolster Bullpen With A.J. Ramos
Mets Get: A.J. Ramos (2-4, 3.63 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 20 SV, 47/22 K/BB, Age 30)
Marlins Get: Merandy Gonzalez (12-3, 1.78 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 89/21 K/BB at Class A and High Class A, Age 21)
Ricardo Cespedes (1 HR, 15 RBI, .243 AVG, 1 SB, 64 wRC+ at GCL, Class A Short Season, and Class A, Age 19)
The Mets added a proven bullpen arm in A.J. Ramos, and his most important positive may be that he still has another year of arbitration left and therefore another under contract. The Mets are 48-53 and are unlikely to contend this year behind the 61-39 Nationals, especially after trading Lucas Duda to the Rays, so Ramos is more important for next year than this year, when they may be without pending free agents Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed. He's been very good for the Marlins over the past few seasons, with his best being 2015, where he posted a 2.30 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and an 87/26 strikeout to walk ratio in 70.1 innings. He took a moderate step back as both the walks and hits went up (though home runs went down), as he posted a 2.81 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 67 appearances, striking out 73 and walking 35 in 64 innings. He's been streaky this year with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, as he's gotten into grooves where he won't allow a run in ten or so straight appearances before posting back to back bad outings. For his career, Ramos is 15-16 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP, striking out 379 and walking 173 in 327.1 innings, all with the Marlins.
Merandy Gonzalez was good in Short Season ball last year (2.87 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), but he has really taken well to full season ball in his age-21 season. The Dominican product dominated the Class A South Atlantic League, going 8-1 with a 1.55 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP over 11 starts for Columbia, striking out 65 and walking just 13 in 69.2 innings. Promoted to the High Class A Florida State League, he has continued to get outs, going 4-2 with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over six starts for Port St. Lucie, striking out 24 and walking eight in 36.1 innings. He's much more control over command, meaning he can throw strikes easily (just 21 walks in 106 innings, 4.9% of the batters he's faced) but has difficulty commanding his pitches to the corners. He throws in the low to mid 90's right now with a solid curveball and changeup, and if he has to move to relief down the road, he'll be able to sit 95-97. He projects as a mid-rotation starter if he can learn command, but that's a big if. Ricardo Cespedes is a project, as he is just 19 years old playing in the low minors. He started the season off with Class A Columbia and slashed .417/.417/.500 over five games before being sidelined with an injury. He hasn't been great since returning, slashing .221/.253/.253 in 25 games between the Gulf Coast League and the New York-Penn League. He has all the tools, and it may be that all it takes for a breakout is consistent playing time. There's a good chance he never reaches the majors, but he's also the kind of player that has the potential to develop into a star.
Marlins Get: Merandy Gonzalez (12-3, 1.78 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 89/21 K/BB at Class A and High Class A, Age 21)
Ricardo Cespedes (1 HR, 15 RBI, .243 AVG, 1 SB, 64 wRC+ at GCL, Class A Short Season, and Class A, Age 19)
The Mets added a proven bullpen arm in A.J. Ramos, and his most important positive may be that he still has another year of arbitration left and therefore another under contract. The Mets are 48-53 and are unlikely to contend this year behind the 61-39 Nationals, especially after trading Lucas Duda to the Rays, so Ramos is more important for next year than this year, when they may be without pending free agents Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed. He's been very good for the Marlins over the past few seasons, with his best being 2015, where he posted a 2.30 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and an 87/26 strikeout to walk ratio in 70.1 innings. He took a moderate step back as both the walks and hits went up (though home runs went down), as he posted a 2.81 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 67 appearances, striking out 73 and walking 35 in 64 innings. He's been streaky this year with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, as he's gotten into grooves where he won't allow a run in ten or so straight appearances before posting back to back bad outings. For his career, Ramos is 15-16 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP, striking out 379 and walking 173 in 327.1 innings, all with the Marlins.
Merandy Gonzalez was good in Short Season ball last year (2.87 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), but he has really taken well to full season ball in his age-21 season. The Dominican product dominated the Class A South Atlantic League, going 8-1 with a 1.55 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP over 11 starts for Columbia, striking out 65 and walking just 13 in 69.2 innings. Promoted to the High Class A Florida State League, he has continued to get outs, going 4-2 with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over six starts for Port St. Lucie, striking out 24 and walking eight in 36.1 innings. He's much more control over command, meaning he can throw strikes easily (just 21 walks in 106 innings, 4.9% of the batters he's faced) but has difficulty commanding his pitches to the corners. He throws in the low to mid 90's right now with a solid curveball and changeup, and if he has to move to relief down the road, he'll be able to sit 95-97. He projects as a mid-rotation starter if he can learn command, but that's a big if. Ricardo Cespedes is a project, as he is just 19 years old playing in the low minors. He started the season off with Class A Columbia and slashed .417/.417/.500 over five games before being sidelined with an injury. He hasn't been great since returning, slashing .221/.253/.253 in 25 games between the Gulf Coast League and the New York-Penn League. He has all the tools, and it may be that all it takes for a breakout is consistent playing time. There's a good chance he never reaches the majors, but he's also the kind of player that has the potential to develop into a star.
Orioles Add Hellickson to Struggling Rotation
Orioles Get: Jeremy Hellickson (6-5, 4.73 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 65/30 K/BB, Age 30)
Phillies Get: Hyun Soo Kim (1 HR, 10 RBI, .232 AVG, 0 SB, 60 wRC+, Age 29)
Garrett Cleavinger (2-4, 6.28 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 3 SV, 42/23 K/BB at AA, Age 23)
International signing bonus money
The Orioles rotation has been downright awful this season, and it's a big part of the reason they are 48-54. Chris Tillman (7.65 ERA, 1.98 WHIP), Kevin Gausman (5.79 ERA, 1.72 WHIP), Ubaldo Jimenez (6.93 ERA, 1.56 WHIP), Wade Miley (5.69 ERA, 1.79 WHIP) have all disappointed mightily, with only Dylan Bundy (4.53 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) looking even remotely adequate among Orioles starting pitchers. The Orioles' starters' ERA is a collective 5.90, the worst in the AL by a huge margin over the second-worst White Sox (5.03). Even if the Orioles don't end up contending this year, they need something to at least make the games bearable for fans who don't like Coors Field-type slugfests. This is where Jeremy Hellickson comes in. Hellickson had a big bounce back year for the Phillies in 2016 (12-10, 3.71 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), and while he hasn't been quite as good in 2017 (4.73 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), he's still a quality arm that can eat up innings and spare O's fans once every five days. If Baltimore flips a switch and makes a run at the AL East title, Hellickson could be even more helpful. Be weary though; Hellickson's 5.50 FIP doesn't help his case, and Camden Yards is just as much of a hitters' park as Citizens Bank Park. For his career, Hellickson is 67-63 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 194 games (187 starts) since 2010. He'll be a free agent after the season.
The Phillies brought in an outfield in Hyun Soo Kim, which is convenient because they just traded away Howie Kendrick (though Kendrick bats right handed and Kim left handed). Kim had a great rookie season as a platoon bat last year, slashing .302/.382/.420 (.321/.393/.446 against right handed pitching), but has regressed this year, slashing just .232/.305/.288 over 56 games. Kim is only useful against right handed pitching, as he holds a career .038/.194/.038 slash line in 31 plate appearances against left handers. For his career, Kim has seven home runs to go along with a .281 batting average (and a solid .359 on-base percentage) over 151 games. He has exactly one career hit against left handed pitching and will be a free agent after the season. The more important player, in a long term context, coming to Baltimore is minor league reliever Garrett Cleavinger. Cleavinger was a third round pick out of Oregon in 2015, reaching AA Bowie in 2017. The results haven't been pretty in the Eastern League, as he has a 6.28 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP over 27 appearances, but he has also struck out 42 batters in 38.2 innings. If he can clean up his command, Cleavinger could be a solid middle-reliever for the Phillies in the near future. He throws left handed, so that's always a plus.
Phillies Get: Hyun Soo Kim (1 HR, 10 RBI, .232 AVG, 0 SB, 60 wRC+, Age 29)
Garrett Cleavinger (2-4, 6.28 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 3 SV, 42/23 K/BB at AA, Age 23)
International signing bonus money
The Orioles rotation has been downright awful this season, and it's a big part of the reason they are 48-54. Chris Tillman (7.65 ERA, 1.98 WHIP), Kevin Gausman (5.79 ERA, 1.72 WHIP), Ubaldo Jimenez (6.93 ERA, 1.56 WHIP), Wade Miley (5.69 ERA, 1.79 WHIP) have all disappointed mightily, with only Dylan Bundy (4.53 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) looking even remotely adequate among Orioles starting pitchers. The Orioles' starters' ERA is a collective 5.90, the worst in the AL by a huge margin over the second-worst White Sox (5.03). Even if the Orioles don't end up contending this year, they need something to at least make the games bearable for fans who don't like Coors Field-type slugfests. This is where Jeremy Hellickson comes in. Hellickson had a big bounce back year for the Phillies in 2016 (12-10, 3.71 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), and while he hasn't been quite as good in 2017 (4.73 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), he's still a quality arm that can eat up innings and spare O's fans once every five days. If Baltimore flips a switch and makes a run at the AL East title, Hellickson could be even more helpful. Be weary though; Hellickson's 5.50 FIP doesn't help his case, and Camden Yards is just as much of a hitters' park as Citizens Bank Park. For his career, Hellickson is 67-63 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 194 games (187 starts) since 2010. He'll be a free agent after the season.
The Phillies brought in an outfield in Hyun Soo Kim, which is convenient because they just traded away Howie Kendrick (though Kendrick bats right handed and Kim left handed). Kim had a great rookie season as a platoon bat last year, slashing .302/.382/.420 (.321/.393/.446 against right handed pitching), but has regressed this year, slashing just .232/.305/.288 over 56 games. Kim is only useful against right handed pitching, as he holds a career .038/.194/.038 slash line in 31 plate appearances against left handers. For his career, Kim has seven home runs to go along with a .281 batting average (and a solid .359 on-base percentage) over 151 games. He has exactly one career hit against left handed pitching and will be a free agent after the season. The more important player, in a long term context, coming to Baltimore is minor league reliever Garrett Cleavinger. Cleavinger was a third round pick out of Oregon in 2015, reaching AA Bowie in 2017. The results haven't been pretty in the Eastern League, as he has a 6.28 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP over 27 appearances, but he has also struck out 42 batters in 38.2 innings. If he can clean up his command, Cleavinger could be a solid middle-reliever for the Phillies in the near future. He throws left handed, so that's always a plus.
Nationals Acquire Outfield Help in Howie Kendrick
Nationals Get: Howie Kendrick (2 HR, 16 RBI, .340 AVG, 8 SB, 126 wRC+, Age 34)
Phillies Get: McKenzie Mills (12-2, 3.01 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 118/22 K/BB at Class A, Age 21)
International Bonus Money
Nationals outfielders currently on the disabled list: Adam Eaton, Jayson Werth, Michael Taylor, Ryan Raburn, Chris Heisey, and if you count him as both a shortstop and an outfielder, Trea Turner. Suddenly, it makes a ton of sense that the Nationals are adding an outfield bat in Howie Kendrick. After a down year with the Dodgers in 2016 (.255/.326/.366, 8 HR, 79 wRC+), Kendrick is having a bounce back season by slashing .340/.397/.454 with a pair of home runs and a 126 wRC+ in 39 games. It's a small sample size that includes an inflated .418 BABIP (career mark of .339), so obviously he won't hit .340 over extended time, but he'll bring added depth in a place the Nationals really need it. Rookie Andrew Stevenson can get more time to develop in AAA, and Adam Lind can slide back into the bench/first base role that he fills better than the left field role, where he is a defensive liability. The 12 year veteran is set to hit free agency after the season, but the Nationals only really need him as a rental anyways, where he can add insurance as the Nationals look to avoid speed bumps on their way to the NL East title while looking towards more. For his career, Kendrick has 97 home runs, a .290 batting average, and 119 stolen bases over 1383 games, accumulating 27.9 fWAR.
The Nationals drafted McKenzie Mills in the 18th round in 2014 as a high risk, high reward, high school arm, and so far, he's on track to fulfill that reward. They brought him along slowly, as he tossed just 57.2 mediocre innings between 2014 and 2015, and he performed adequately in 2016, going 4-5 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 12 starts for Class A Short Season Auburn, striking out 46 and walking 28 in 53.1 innings. They turned him loose in full season ball in 2017, and the results have been excellent. Over 18 starts, he has gone 12-2 with a 3.01 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP, striking out 118 and walking just 22 in 104.2 innings at Class A Hagerstown, earning a promotion to High Class A Potomac just one day before he was shipped to Philadelphia. The 21 year old lefty stands 6'4" and throws in the low 90's with a solid curveball and changeup that has has shown better feel for in 2017. Mills still carries considerable risk as a prospect, but he's trending in the right direction and is a good return for a rental like Kendrick.
Phillies Get: McKenzie Mills (12-2, 3.01 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 118/22 K/BB at Class A, Age 21)
International Bonus Money
Nationals outfielders currently on the disabled list: Adam Eaton, Jayson Werth, Michael Taylor, Ryan Raburn, Chris Heisey, and if you count him as both a shortstop and an outfielder, Trea Turner. Suddenly, it makes a ton of sense that the Nationals are adding an outfield bat in Howie Kendrick. After a down year with the Dodgers in 2016 (.255/.326/.366, 8 HR, 79 wRC+), Kendrick is having a bounce back season by slashing .340/.397/.454 with a pair of home runs and a 126 wRC+ in 39 games. It's a small sample size that includes an inflated .418 BABIP (career mark of .339), so obviously he won't hit .340 over extended time, but he'll bring added depth in a place the Nationals really need it. Rookie Andrew Stevenson can get more time to develop in AAA, and Adam Lind can slide back into the bench/first base role that he fills better than the left field role, where he is a defensive liability. The 12 year veteran is set to hit free agency after the season, but the Nationals only really need him as a rental anyways, where he can add insurance as the Nationals look to avoid speed bumps on their way to the NL East title while looking towards more. For his career, Kendrick has 97 home runs, a .290 batting average, and 119 stolen bases over 1383 games, accumulating 27.9 fWAR.
The Nationals drafted McKenzie Mills in the 18th round in 2014 as a high risk, high reward, high school arm, and so far, he's on track to fulfill that reward. They brought him along slowly, as he tossed just 57.2 mediocre innings between 2014 and 2015, and he performed adequately in 2016, going 4-5 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 12 starts for Class A Short Season Auburn, striking out 46 and walking 28 in 53.1 innings. They turned him loose in full season ball in 2017, and the results have been excellent. Over 18 starts, he has gone 12-2 with a 3.01 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP, striking out 118 and walking just 22 in 104.2 innings at Class A Hagerstown, earning a promotion to High Class A Potomac just one day before he was shipped to Philadelphia. The 21 year old lefty stands 6'4" and throws in the low 90's with a solid curveball and changeup that has has shown better feel for in 2017. Mills still carries considerable risk as a prospect, but he's trending in the right direction and is a good return for a rental like Kendrick.
Friday, July 28, 2017
Rays Add Power Bat in Lucas Duda
Rays Get: Lucas Duda (17 HR, 37 RBI, .246 AVG, 0 SB, 127 wRC+, Age 31)
Mets Get: Drew Smith (1-2, 1.60 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 7 SV, 40/9 K/BB at High Class A, AA, and AAA, Age 23)
This is a simple rental deal, with the Rays adding a power bat for a couple months in exchange for a power arm. Lucas Duda is an underrated player, as you can look at his .246 batting average, 25.1% strikeout rate, and mediocre defense and dislike him. However, he has a 12.7% walk rate that leads to a solid .347 on-base percentage, and his 38 extra base hits this year (21 doubles, 17 homers) give him a .532 slugging percentage, enough to push his wRC+ to 127, meaning he creates 27% more runs than the average hitter. The Rays, at 53-50, are quietly creeping up on the Red Sox and the Yankees in the AL East, and Duda's power will be helpful in getting them over the hump. He has played his entire eight year career with the Mets, crushing 125 home runs while slashing .246/.343/.457 over 760 games. He actually leaves New York seventh on the Mets' all time home run list, behind only Darryl Strawberry (252), David Wright (242), Mike Piazza (220), Howard Johnson (192), Dave Kingman (154), and Carlos Beltran (149).
Drew Smith is an intriguing young reliever out of Dallas Baptist University, pushing his fastball into the upper 90's' and racking up strikeouts in bunches in the minors. Smith actually began the season with High Class A Lakeland, the Tigers' Florida State League affiliate, and has bounced around quite a bit, finding himself traded to the Rays and pitching for High Class A Charlotte, AA Montgomery, and AAA Durham at various points during the season. Overall, he has a 1.60 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP between those four teams, primarily in High Class A, striking out 40 and walking just nine in 45 innings. The 6'2" righty will presumably start off with AA Binghamton, and he could be in the Mets' bullpen by the end of the season if all goes well in the upper minors.
Mets Get: Drew Smith (1-2, 1.60 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 7 SV, 40/9 K/BB at High Class A, AA, and AAA, Age 23)
This is a simple rental deal, with the Rays adding a power bat for a couple months in exchange for a power arm. Lucas Duda is an underrated player, as you can look at his .246 batting average, 25.1% strikeout rate, and mediocre defense and dislike him. However, he has a 12.7% walk rate that leads to a solid .347 on-base percentage, and his 38 extra base hits this year (21 doubles, 17 homers) give him a .532 slugging percentage, enough to push his wRC+ to 127, meaning he creates 27% more runs than the average hitter. The Rays, at 53-50, are quietly creeping up on the Red Sox and the Yankees in the AL East, and Duda's power will be helpful in getting them over the hump. He has played his entire eight year career with the Mets, crushing 125 home runs while slashing .246/.343/.457 over 760 games. He actually leaves New York seventh on the Mets' all time home run list, behind only Darryl Strawberry (252), David Wright (242), Mike Piazza (220), Howard Johnson (192), Dave Kingman (154), and Carlos Beltran (149).
Drew Smith is an intriguing young reliever out of Dallas Baptist University, pushing his fastball into the upper 90's' and racking up strikeouts in bunches in the minors. Smith actually began the season with High Class A Lakeland, the Tigers' Florida State League affiliate, and has bounced around quite a bit, finding himself traded to the Rays and pitching for High Class A Charlotte, AA Montgomery, and AAA Durham at various points during the season. Overall, he has a 1.60 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP between those four teams, primarily in High Class A, striking out 40 and walking just nine in 45 innings. The 6'2" righty will presumably start off with AA Binghamton, and he could be in the Mets' bullpen by the end of the season if all goes well in the upper minors.
Tuesday, July 25, 2017
Royals, Padres Shuffle Arms
Royals Get: Trevor Cahill (4-3, 3.69 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 72/24 K/BB, Age 29)
Ryan Buchter (3-3, 3.05 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 47/18 K/BB, 1 SV, Age 30)
Brandon Maurer (1-4, 5.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 38/8 K/BB, 20 SV, Age 27)
Padres Get: Travis Wood (1-3, 6.91 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 29/20 K/BB, Age 30)
Matt Strahm (2-5, 5.45 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 37/22 K/BB, Age 25)
Esteury Ruiz (3 HR, 23 RBI, .419 AVG, 9 SB, 200 wRC+ at AZL, Age 18)
At 50-47 and a game and a half back of the Indians as of this trade, the surging Royals have worked their way back into the playoff hunt and shuffled arms with the Padres to make sure things keep going the way they are. The biggest name coming to Kansas City is Trevor Cahill, who is in the middle of a comeback season. Through eleven starts, the San Diego native is 4-3 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP, striking out 72 to just 24 walks in 61 innings. He's no ace, but it's reminiscent of his 2010-2013 stretch with the A's and Diamondbacks, when he was a serviceable mid-rotation starter. With Nathan Karns out for the season, that will be a helpful addition. For his career, the 6'4" righty is 73-79 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 273 games (185 starts). Ryan Buchter isn't exactly a household name, but he's been pretty dominant since he surfaced in San Diego. Over 42 appearances this year, he has a 3.05 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a solid 47/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.1 innings. Those are back-end numbers that could be very valuable in a stretch run. For his career, Buchter is 7-3 with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, striking out 30.7% of the batters he faced. Somehow, in this Padres bullpen that also includes Buchter and star reliever Brad Hand, Brandon Mauerer has held on to the closer's role, and he'll also be going to Kansas City. Maurer hasn't been that good this year, putting up a 5.72 ERA, though his 1.19 WHIP and 3.23 FIP are much better. He's been penalized by a .315 opponents' BABIP, which isn't extremely high but is the highest mark he's allowed since his rookie 2013 season. Together with Buchter, he'll help strengthen that bullpen that hasn't seen much consistency. For his career, Maurer is 14-25 with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, striking out 274 and walking 92 in 319.2 innings. Cahill will be a free agent after the season, but Buchter is under team control through 2021 and Maurer through 2019.
San Diego is out of the playoff race, so they got rid of three of their better pitchers in favor of some younger arms and one veteran. Travis Wood is the one veteran, having pitched eight years for the Reds, Cubs, and Royals. He's been up and down, but this year has been a down year following his signing with Kansas City. Through 28 games (3 starts), he is 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP, striking out just 29 and walking 20 in 41.2 innings. He's been equally bad between the bullpen and rotation, putting up a 6.28 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP over 25 relief appearances as well as an 8.31 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP in three starts. He has been victimized a bit by a .369 BABIP, leading to a better 4.52 FIP but it's still not what you want. Many pitchers have revitalized their careers in San Diego (See Trevor Cahill), so he has a chance there. He's under control through 2018. For his career, Wood is 44-55 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 287 games (136 starts). Matt Strahm, who turns 26 after the season, may be the most exciting pickup, as he dominated in his rookie 2016 (1.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 30/11 K/BB) before taking a step back in 2017 (5.45 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 37/22 K/BB). Young and controllable through 2022, Strahm could become a fixture in the San Diego bullpen. One thing's for sure, San Diego is a long way from his hometown of Fargo, North Dakota. Lastly, Esteury Ruiz is a long way off, but he could develop into an exciting prospect in time. At the age of 17 last year, he slashed .313/.378/.512 with five home runs and 13 stolen bases over 56 games in the Dominican Summer League, and his bat hasn't slowed down this year. Promoted up to the complex-level Arizona League, he has dominated the low-level pitching, slashing .419/.440/.779 with three home runs and nine stolen bases over 21 games. It's a small sample, but the 18 year old is flashing above average tools across the board and could become a top prospect if he keeps hitting like this.
Ryan Buchter (3-3, 3.05 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 47/18 K/BB, 1 SV, Age 30)
Brandon Maurer (1-4, 5.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 38/8 K/BB, 20 SV, Age 27)
Padres Get: Travis Wood (1-3, 6.91 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 29/20 K/BB, Age 30)
Matt Strahm (2-5, 5.45 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 37/22 K/BB, Age 25)
Esteury Ruiz (3 HR, 23 RBI, .419 AVG, 9 SB, 200 wRC+ at AZL, Age 18)
At 50-47 and a game and a half back of the Indians as of this trade, the surging Royals have worked their way back into the playoff hunt and shuffled arms with the Padres to make sure things keep going the way they are. The biggest name coming to Kansas City is Trevor Cahill, who is in the middle of a comeback season. Through eleven starts, the San Diego native is 4-3 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP, striking out 72 to just 24 walks in 61 innings. He's no ace, but it's reminiscent of his 2010-2013 stretch with the A's and Diamondbacks, when he was a serviceable mid-rotation starter. With Nathan Karns out for the season, that will be a helpful addition. For his career, the 6'4" righty is 73-79 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 273 games (185 starts). Ryan Buchter isn't exactly a household name, but he's been pretty dominant since he surfaced in San Diego. Over 42 appearances this year, he has a 3.05 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a solid 47/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.1 innings. Those are back-end numbers that could be very valuable in a stretch run. For his career, Buchter is 7-3 with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, striking out 30.7% of the batters he faced. Somehow, in this Padres bullpen that also includes Buchter and star reliever Brad Hand, Brandon Mauerer has held on to the closer's role, and he'll also be going to Kansas City. Maurer hasn't been that good this year, putting up a 5.72 ERA, though his 1.19 WHIP and 3.23 FIP are much better. He's been penalized by a .315 opponents' BABIP, which isn't extremely high but is the highest mark he's allowed since his rookie 2013 season. Together with Buchter, he'll help strengthen that bullpen that hasn't seen much consistency. For his career, Maurer is 14-25 with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, striking out 274 and walking 92 in 319.2 innings. Cahill will be a free agent after the season, but Buchter is under team control through 2021 and Maurer through 2019.
San Diego is out of the playoff race, so they got rid of three of their better pitchers in favor of some younger arms and one veteran. Travis Wood is the one veteran, having pitched eight years for the Reds, Cubs, and Royals. He's been up and down, but this year has been a down year following his signing with Kansas City. Through 28 games (3 starts), he is 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP, striking out just 29 and walking 20 in 41.2 innings. He's been equally bad between the bullpen and rotation, putting up a 6.28 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP over 25 relief appearances as well as an 8.31 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP in three starts. He has been victimized a bit by a .369 BABIP, leading to a better 4.52 FIP but it's still not what you want. Many pitchers have revitalized their careers in San Diego (See Trevor Cahill), so he has a chance there. He's under control through 2018. For his career, Wood is 44-55 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 287 games (136 starts). Matt Strahm, who turns 26 after the season, may be the most exciting pickup, as he dominated in his rookie 2016 (1.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 30/11 K/BB) before taking a step back in 2017 (5.45 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 37/22 K/BB). Young and controllable through 2022, Strahm could become a fixture in the San Diego bullpen. One thing's for sure, San Diego is a long way from his hometown of Fargo, North Dakota. Lastly, Esteury Ruiz is a long way off, but he could develop into an exciting prospect in time. At the age of 17 last year, he slashed .313/.378/.512 with five home runs and 13 stolen bases over 56 games in the Dominican Summer League, and his bat hasn't slowed down this year. Promoted up to the complex-level Arizona League, he has dominated the low-level pitching, slashing .419/.440/.779 with three home runs and nine stolen bases over 21 games. It's a small sample, but the 18 year old is flashing above average tools across the board and could become a top prospect if he keeps hitting like this.
Thursday, July 20, 2017
Yankees, White Sox Pull Off Blockbuster
Yankees Get: Todd Frazier (16 HR, 44 RBI, .207 AVG, 4 SB, 103 wRC+, Age 31)
David Robertson (4-2, 2.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 13 SV, 47/11 K/BB, Age 32)
Tommy Kahnle (1-3, 2.50 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 60/7 K/BB, Age 27)
White Sox Get: Tyler Clippard (1-5, 4.95 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 42/19 K/BB, Age 32)
Blake Rutherford (2 HR, 30 RBI, .281 AVG, 9 SB, 112 wRC+ at Class A, Age 20)
Ian Clarkin (4-5, 2.62 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 58/25 K/BB at High Class A, Age 22)
Tito Polo (5 HR, 37 RBI, .307 AVG, 27 SB, 138 wRC+ at High Class A and AA, Age 22)
The Yankees offense has been performing on all cylinders behind guys like Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Starlin Castro, and Gary Sanchez, but with some guys slumping a bit, they needed to inject some firepower into the lineup to ensure a postseason run. They got that in the powerful bat of Todd Frazier, a New Jersey native who clubbed 40 home runs a year ago. Though his batting average is just over .200, we know today that batting average is not a great way to evaluate a player, and his overall slash line comes out to a pretty solid .207/.328/.432, good for above-league-average production at a 103 wRC+. He should get regular playing time at third base, as well as possibly at first base. He won't be the star of his new lineup, but Frazier will provide enough power to act as protection for the Yankees' young stars. He'll be a free agent at the end of the season, so this is just a rental. For his career, Frazier has 164 home runs and a .247/.318/.461 line over 873 games. David Robertson pitched for the Yankees from 2008-2014, replacing Mariano Rivera as the Yankees' closer in 2014 with pretty good results (3.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 96/23 K/BB). He has been inconsistent with the White Sox, but his 2.70 ERA this year is his lowest in his four years as a closer, and he'll add to a strong bullpen that already includes Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances, though both have underperformed somewhat this year. Robertson is under contract through 2018, and the Yankees will have to pay him about $18 million for the year and a half. For his career, Robertson has a 2.95 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 732/222 strikeout to walk ratio, and if you care about saves, he has 131 of those in 555 appearances. Lastly, Tommy Kahnle has been better than you might think. Over 37 appearances this year for the White Sox, the 27 year old righty quietly put up a 2.50 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a remarkable 60/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings, striking out 42.6% of the batters he faced. That's pretty ridiculous. With three years of arbitration ahead of him, Kahnle is controllable through 2020, and he's an underrated get in this deal. For his career, he has a 3.68 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 189/86 strikeout to walk ratio over 157 appearances.
After losing the two biggest pieces in their bullpen, the rebuilding White Sox wanted to make sure they at least didn't have a Nationals-esque bullpen, because not even a rebuilding team should be blowing leads every night. Tyler Clippard will be shipped west to Chicago, where he will look to rectify what has been the worst season of his career. Through 40 appearances so far, the 32 year old has a 4.95 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP, both of which are his highest in his nine years as a reliever. As recently as last year, he put together a 2.49 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 29 appearances after his trade to the Yankees, so he could easily bounce back with this trade, and he'll likely serve as Chicago's closer. He'll be a free agent after the season, but the White Sox have so many prospects coming up that they probably don't care all that much. For his career, Clippard is 47-40 with a 3.06 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 726/275 strikeout to walk ratio over 598 games (8 starts). Blake Rutherford is the most exciting piece in this deal for the White Sox, as he was the Yankees' first round pick (18th overall) last year and has hit well since signing. Over 71 games for Class A Charleston this year, he slashed .281/.342/.391 with a pair of home runs despite just turning 20 in May. The advertised power wasn't quite there, but he's also a year out of high school playing in full season ball, so we shouldn't be too worried about that yet. He did have 20 doubles and a pair of triples to go along with those two home runs in 71 games, so he has shown some power that could mature into over-the-fence power as he fills out. Most importantly, he has a real chance to be an impact bat for the ChiSox down the road, though he's still a few years off and needs to show more game power. Ian Clarkin was the Yankees' comp round pick (33rd overall) back in 2013, missed all of 2015 with elbow issues and is a bit behind in his development, but he seems to have found his groove at High Class A Tampa this year. Over 15 games (14 starts) while repeating the level, he is 4-5 with a 2.62 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP, striking out 58 and walking 25 in 75.2 innings. The numbers are good, but they aren't great (especially given the pitcher-friendly environment of the Florida State League), and while he could still be a #3 or #4 starter at some point, he may fall back on the bullpen eventually. He turned 22 in February. Tito Polo is perhaps most well known for starring on Team Colombia at the World Baseball Classic this year, and it seems like he used the event as a springboard for this year. Beginning at High Class A Tampa, he slashed .289/.346/.434 with four home runs over 60 games in that pitchers' environment, earning a promotion to AA Trenton. There, he has caught fire in 14 games, slashing .382/.460/.545 with his fifth home run of the season. Showcasing his plus speed, he has added 27 stolen bases this year, giving him 157 over his minor league career. He probably won't hit enough to be a starter, but he could be a valuable role player as a Willy Taveras type guy.
David Robertson (4-2, 2.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 13 SV, 47/11 K/BB, Age 32)
Tommy Kahnle (1-3, 2.50 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 60/7 K/BB, Age 27)
White Sox Get: Tyler Clippard (1-5, 4.95 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 42/19 K/BB, Age 32)
Blake Rutherford (2 HR, 30 RBI, .281 AVG, 9 SB, 112 wRC+ at Class A, Age 20)
Ian Clarkin (4-5, 2.62 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 58/25 K/BB at High Class A, Age 22)
Tito Polo (5 HR, 37 RBI, .307 AVG, 27 SB, 138 wRC+ at High Class A and AA, Age 22)
The Yankees offense has been performing on all cylinders behind guys like Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Starlin Castro, and Gary Sanchez, but with some guys slumping a bit, they needed to inject some firepower into the lineup to ensure a postseason run. They got that in the powerful bat of Todd Frazier, a New Jersey native who clubbed 40 home runs a year ago. Though his batting average is just over .200, we know today that batting average is not a great way to evaluate a player, and his overall slash line comes out to a pretty solid .207/.328/.432, good for above-league-average production at a 103 wRC+. He should get regular playing time at third base, as well as possibly at first base. He won't be the star of his new lineup, but Frazier will provide enough power to act as protection for the Yankees' young stars. He'll be a free agent at the end of the season, so this is just a rental. For his career, Frazier has 164 home runs and a .247/.318/.461 line over 873 games. David Robertson pitched for the Yankees from 2008-2014, replacing Mariano Rivera as the Yankees' closer in 2014 with pretty good results (3.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 96/23 K/BB). He has been inconsistent with the White Sox, but his 2.70 ERA this year is his lowest in his four years as a closer, and he'll add to a strong bullpen that already includes Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances, though both have underperformed somewhat this year. Robertson is under contract through 2018, and the Yankees will have to pay him about $18 million for the year and a half. For his career, Robertson has a 2.95 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 732/222 strikeout to walk ratio, and if you care about saves, he has 131 of those in 555 appearances. Lastly, Tommy Kahnle has been better than you might think. Over 37 appearances this year for the White Sox, the 27 year old righty quietly put up a 2.50 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a remarkable 60/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings, striking out 42.6% of the batters he faced. That's pretty ridiculous. With three years of arbitration ahead of him, Kahnle is controllable through 2020, and he's an underrated get in this deal. For his career, he has a 3.68 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 189/86 strikeout to walk ratio over 157 appearances.
After losing the two biggest pieces in their bullpen, the rebuilding White Sox wanted to make sure they at least didn't have a Nationals-esque bullpen, because not even a rebuilding team should be blowing leads every night. Tyler Clippard will be shipped west to Chicago, where he will look to rectify what has been the worst season of his career. Through 40 appearances so far, the 32 year old has a 4.95 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP, both of which are his highest in his nine years as a reliever. As recently as last year, he put together a 2.49 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 29 appearances after his trade to the Yankees, so he could easily bounce back with this trade, and he'll likely serve as Chicago's closer. He'll be a free agent after the season, but the White Sox have so many prospects coming up that they probably don't care all that much. For his career, Clippard is 47-40 with a 3.06 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 726/275 strikeout to walk ratio over 598 games (8 starts). Blake Rutherford is the most exciting piece in this deal for the White Sox, as he was the Yankees' first round pick (18th overall) last year and has hit well since signing. Over 71 games for Class A Charleston this year, he slashed .281/.342/.391 with a pair of home runs despite just turning 20 in May. The advertised power wasn't quite there, but he's also a year out of high school playing in full season ball, so we shouldn't be too worried about that yet. He did have 20 doubles and a pair of triples to go along with those two home runs in 71 games, so he has shown some power that could mature into over-the-fence power as he fills out. Most importantly, he has a real chance to be an impact bat for the ChiSox down the road, though he's still a few years off and needs to show more game power. Ian Clarkin was the Yankees' comp round pick (33rd overall) back in 2013, missed all of 2015 with elbow issues and is a bit behind in his development, but he seems to have found his groove at High Class A Tampa this year. Over 15 games (14 starts) while repeating the level, he is 4-5 with a 2.62 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP, striking out 58 and walking 25 in 75.2 innings. The numbers are good, but they aren't great (especially given the pitcher-friendly environment of the Florida State League), and while he could still be a #3 or #4 starter at some point, he may fall back on the bullpen eventually. He turned 22 in February. Tito Polo is perhaps most well known for starring on Team Colombia at the World Baseball Classic this year, and it seems like he used the event as a springboard for this year. Beginning at High Class A Tampa, he slashed .289/.346/.434 with four home runs over 60 games in that pitchers' environment, earning a promotion to AA Trenton. There, he has caught fire in 14 games, slashing .382/.460/.545 with his fifth home run of the season. Showcasing his plus speed, he has added 27 stolen bases this year, giving him 157 over his minor league career. He probably won't hit enough to be a starter, but he could be a valuable role player as a Willy Taveras type guy.
Wednesday, July 19, 2017
Diamondbacks Add Thunder to Lineup with J.D. Martinez
Diamondbacks Get: J.D. Martinez (16 HR, 39 RBI, .305 AVG, 2 SB, 162 wRC+, Age 29)
Tigers Get: Dawel Lugo (7 HR, 43 RBI, .282 AVG, 1 SB, 116 wRC+ at AA, Age 22)
Sergio Alcantara (3 HR, 28 RBI, .279 AVG, 11 SB, 96 wRC+ at High Class A, Age 21)
Jose King (0 HR, 9 RBI, .261 AVG, 2 SB at AZL, 84 wRC+, Age 18)
The Diamondbacks have an awful farm system as it is, but because they're locked in a three-way race for the NL West, they needed to do something to get a leg up. J.D. Martinez provides only short-term value because his contract ends after this season, but that's what Arizona needs right now. The rental has one of the best pure bats in baseball, posting a wRC+ above 130 in each of his four seasons with the Tigers, including what would be a career high 162 this season. In more traditional stats, he's slashing .305/.388/.630 with 16 home runs in 57 games this year, and that's in a pitchers' park and overall pitchers' division in Detroit. Moving to Chase Field, which is much more of a hitters' park than Comerica, Martinez should see his offensive numbers increase even more, and the slugger will be an integral part of the D-Backs lineup, which includes Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, and A.J. Pollock, going forward. He doesn't provide much defensive value, but he's been worth 1.7 fWAR this year, and his bat is pretty special. For his career, Martinez has 123 home runs and a .283/.340/.494 slash line over 710 games for the Astros and Tigers. He'll be a free agent at the end of the season.
The Tigers had pretty slim pickings from the D-Backs system, but since Martinez was going to be a rental no matter what team he went to, they weren't about to grab any Clint Fraziers or Eloy Jimenez's. They did get one of the brightest young stars in a dim Arizona system in Dawel Lugo. Lugo had a breakout year in the extremely hitter-friendly High Class A California League in 2016 (.314/.348/.514, 13 HR, 129 wRC+) and continued to hit once he was promoted to AA Mobile (.306/.322/.451, 4 HR, 122 wRC+). Arizona got a new AA affiliate, so at AA Jackson this year, he's been good but not great, slashing .282/.325/.428 with seven home runs and a 116 wRC+ at the age of 22. As of now, he projects as an average third baseman who could fall back on being a utility man. Sergio Alcantara played at four different levels last year, but he's been the starting shortstop all year at High Class A Visalia, where he has been just about league average at the plate by slashing .279/.344/.362 with three home runs and a 96 wRC+ in the hitter-friendly environment. He's an excellent defender, and his glove work alone could be enough to get him to the majors as a utility man so long as he hits just enough. He'll never be an impact bat, but he could fit the Jose Iglesias mold that the Tigers already have at shortstop. Alcantara just turned 21 a few days ago, so time is on his side. Jose King is by far the least advanced player in this trade, having played just 74 games total in his pro career. King had an extremely successful pro debut in the Dominican Summer League last year (.350/.402/.413, 21 SB, 141 wRC+), though he has been more good than great through 13 games in the Arizona League this year (.261/.333/.348, 84 wRC+). The shortstop has a fairly advanced approach at the plate and above average speed but has shown little to no game power so far. He's just 18 years old, but he has a long way to go before he makes an impact. Think of King as a high school draft pick.
Tigers Get: Dawel Lugo (7 HR, 43 RBI, .282 AVG, 1 SB, 116 wRC+ at AA, Age 22)
Sergio Alcantara (3 HR, 28 RBI, .279 AVG, 11 SB, 96 wRC+ at High Class A, Age 21)
Jose King (0 HR, 9 RBI, .261 AVG, 2 SB at AZL, 84 wRC+, Age 18)
The Diamondbacks have an awful farm system as it is, but because they're locked in a three-way race for the NL West, they needed to do something to get a leg up. J.D. Martinez provides only short-term value because his contract ends after this season, but that's what Arizona needs right now. The rental has one of the best pure bats in baseball, posting a wRC+ above 130 in each of his four seasons with the Tigers, including what would be a career high 162 this season. In more traditional stats, he's slashing .305/.388/.630 with 16 home runs in 57 games this year, and that's in a pitchers' park and overall pitchers' division in Detroit. Moving to Chase Field, which is much more of a hitters' park than Comerica, Martinez should see his offensive numbers increase even more, and the slugger will be an integral part of the D-Backs lineup, which includes Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, and A.J. Pollock, going forward. He doesn't provide much defensive value, but he's been worth 1.7 fWAR this year, and his bat is pretty special. For his career, Martinez has 123 home runs and a .283/.340/.494 slash line over 710 games for the Astros and Tigers. He'll be a free agent at the end of the season.
The Tigers had pretty slim pickings from the D-Backs system, but since Martinez was going to be a rental no matter what team he went to, they weren't about to grab any Clint Fraziers or Eloy Jimenez's. They did get one of the brightest young stars in a dim Arizona system in Dawel Lugo. Lugo had a breakout year in the extremely hitter-friendly High Class A California League in 2016 (.314/.348/.514, 13 HR, 129 wRC+) and continued to hit once he was promoted to AA Mobile (.306/.322/.451, 4 HR, 122 wRC+). Arizona got a new AA affiliate, so at AA Jackson this year, he's been good but not great, slashing .282/.325/.428 with seven home runs and a 116 wRC+ at the age of 22. As of now, he projects as an average third baseman who could fall back on being a utility man. Sergio Alcantara played at four different levels last year, but he's been the starting shortstop all year at High Class A Visalia, where he has been just about league average at the plate by slashing .279/.344/.362 with three home runs and a 96 wRC+ in the hitter-friendly environment. He's an excellent defender, and his glove work alone could be enough to get him to the majors as a utility man so long as he hits just enough. He'll never be an impact bat, but he could fit the Jose Iglesias mold that the Tigers already have at shortstop. Alcantara just turned 21 a few days ago, so time is on his side. Jose King is by far the least advanced player in this trade, having played just 74 games total in his pro career. King had an extremely successful pro debut in the Dominican Summer League last year (.350/.402/.413, 21 SB, 141 wRC+), though he has been more good than great through 13 games in the Arizona League this year (.261/.333/.348, 84 wRC+). The shortstop has a fairly advanced approach at the plate and above average speed but has shown little to no game power so far. He's just 18 years old, but he has a long way to go before he makes an impact. Think of King as a high school draft pick.
Monday, July 17, 2017
Nationals Bolster Bullpen With Doolittle, Madson
Nationals Get: Sean Doolittle (1-0, 3.38 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 3 SV, 31/2 K/BB, Age 30)
Ryan Madson (2-4, 2.06 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 1 SV, 39/6 K/BB, Age 36)
A's Get: Blake Treinen (0-2, 5.73 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 3 SV, 32/13 K/BB, Age 29)
Sheldon Neuse (9 HR, 51 RBI, .291 AVG, 12 SB, 133 wRC+ at Class A, Age 22)
Jesus Luzardo (1-0, 1.32 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 15/0 K/BB at GCL, Age 19)
The Nationals and A's have made numerous trades in recent years, and less than a year after the Marc Rzepczynski for Max Schrock deal, the A's sent the Nationals two more relievers. Sean Doolittle has spent his entire six year career in Oakland, battling injuries but performing like a back-end reliever when healthy. Though the 3.38 ERA might not show it, he's been straight up dominant this year, striking out 31 batters while walking just two in 21.1 innings, leading to a much better 2.35 FIP. He had a rough patch from June 30th to July 5th, allowing five runs in 3.2 innings over four appearances, but he seems to have righted the ship, retiring nine straight batters in his three subsequent outings. He seems like the favorite to become the Nationals new "closer," if they decide to continue with that archaic bullpen model and lock one reliever into one inning. As an extra plus, he's under contract through 2020 for under $20 million total. For his career, Doolittle is 13-13 with a 3.09 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, striking out 300 batters in 253 innings. Ryan Madson is also a veteran reliever, having pitched for the Phillies from 2003-2011, the Royals in 2015, and the A's since 2016, sandwiched around a lengthy Tommy John surgery recovery from 2012-2014. He has been better than ever in 2017, his age 36 season, putting up a 2.06 ERA, a 2.43 FIP, a 0.79 WHIP, and a 39/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 39.1 innings. He has been especially lights-out recently, allowing just one run on two hits, no walks, and a hit batsmen over his past nine appearances, coming out to a 0.90 ERA, a 0.20 WHIP, and eleven strikeouts in ten innings. He's under contract for this year and next, and he'll be paid just over $10 million for that year and a half. For his career, Madson is 56-43 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, striking out 693 batters in 797.1 innings.
Blake Treinen, who was originally drafted by the A's out of South Dakota State in 2011, is the only major leaguer going back to Oakland. He came to the Nationals in the Michael Morse trade and quickly made his mark, putting up a 2.49 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 15 games (seven starts) as a rookie in 2014. After a decent 2015, he seemed to put it all together in 2016, putting up a 2.28 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 73 appearances, striking out 63 batters in 67 innings and showcasing a nasty two-seamer/slider combination. However, he took a big step back this year, struggling to a 5.73 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP over 37 appearances, striking out 32 and walking 13 in 37.2 innings. His 3.75 FIP suggests he's due for some regression, but the Nationals need results now and Treinen wasn't providing them. He still has three years of arbitration ahead of him, meaning he'll be under team control through 2020, like Doolittle. For his career, Treinen is 8-11 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP, striking out 190 in 223 innings. Sheldon Neuse was the Nationals' second round pick out of Oklahoma in 2016, and after a sluggish start to his pro career last year (.230/.305/.341), he broke out this year with Class A Hagerstown, slashing .291/.349/.469 with nine home runs over 77 games, showcasing the upside of a starting third baseman in the majors. He's still a long way off, and at 22, he's not old by prospect standards but he's not young either. He adds to the impressive infield depth Oakland is stockpiling in its system, joining Matt Chapman, Renato Nunez, Franklin Barreto, Richie Martin, Yairo Munoz, Joey Wendle, and former Nationals prospect Max Schrock. Jesus Luzardo was the Nationals' third round pick in 2016, but he could have gone higher had he not gone down with Tommy John surgery before the draft. Finally healthy, the 19 year old made his pro debut on June 28th, and through three starts so far, he's been excellent, going 1-0 with a 1.32 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, striking out 15 and walking nobody in 13.2 innings for the GCL Nationals. Focusing merely on pounding the strike zone for now, he's been fairly hittable, allowing 14 hits in those 13.2 innings for a .259 opponents' batting average, but given the overall results, you'll take it every time for a teenager working his way back from surgery. It will be a few years before he's ready for the majors, but he could be a mid-rotation starter around the year 2020.
Ryan Madson (2-4, 2.06 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 1 SV, 39/6 K/BB, Age 36)
A's Get: Blake Treinen (0-2, 5.73 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 3 SV, 32/13 K/BB, Age 29)
Sheldon Neuse (9 HR, 51 RBI, .291 AVG, 12 SB, 133 wRC+ at Class A, Age 22)
Jesus Luzardo (1-0, 1.32 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 15/0 K/BB at GCL, Age 19)
The Nationals and A's have made numerous trades in recent years, and less than a year after the Marc Rzepczynski for Max Schrock deal, the A's sent the Nationals two more relievers. Sean Doolittle has spent his entire six year career in Oakland, battling injuries but performing like a back-end reliever when healthy. Though the 3.38 ERA might not show it, he's been straight up dominant this year, striking out 31 batters while walking just two in 21.1 innings, leading to a much better 2.35 FIP. He had a rough patch from June 30th to July 5th, allowing five runs in 3.2 innings over four appearances, but he seems to have righted the ship, retiring nine straight batters in his three subsequent outings. He seems like the favorite to become the Nationals new "closer," if they decide to continue with that archaic bullpen model and lock one reliever into one inning. As an extra plus, he's under contract through 2020 for under $20 million total. For his career, Doolittle is 13-13 with a 3.09 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, striking out 300 batters in 253 innings. Ryan Madson is also a veteran reliever, having pitched for the Phillies from 2003-2011, the Royals in 2015, and the A's since 2016, sandwiched around a lengthy Tommy John surgery recovery from 2012-2014. He has been better than ever in 2017, his age 36 season, putting up a 2.06 ERA, a 2.43 FIP, a 0.79 WHIP, and a 39/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 39.1 innings. He has been especially lights-out recently, allowing just one run on two hits, no walks, and a hit batsmen over his past nine appearances, coming out to a 0.90 ERA, a 0.20 WHIP, and eleven strikeouts in ten innings. He's under contract for this year and next, and he'll be paid just over $10 million for that year and a half. For his career, Madson is 56-43 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, striking out 693 batters in 797.1 innings.
Blake Treinen, who was originally drafted by the A's out of South Dakota State in 2011, is the only major leaguer going back to Oakland. He came to the Nationals in the Michael Morse trade and quickly made his mark, putting up a 2.49 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 15 games (seven starts) as a rookie in 2014. After a decent 2015, he seemed to put it all together in 2016, putting up a 2.28 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 73 appearances, striking out 63 batters in 67 innings and showcasing a nasty two-seamer/slider combination. However, he took a big step back this year, struggling to a 5.73 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP over 37 appearances, striking out 32 and walking 13 in 37.2 innings. His 3.75 FIP suggests he's due for some regression, but the Nationals need results now and Treinen wasn't providing them. He still has three years of arbitration ahead of him, meaning he'll be under team control through 2020, like Doolittle. For his career, Treinen is 8-11 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP, striking out 190 in 223 innings. Sheldon Neuse was the Nationals' second round pick out of Oklahoma in 2016, and after a sluggish start to his pro career last year (.230/.305/.341), he broke out this year with Class A Hagerstown, slashing .291/.349/.469 with nine home runs over 77 games, showcasing the upside of a starting third baseman in the majors. He's still a long way off, and at 22, he's not old by prospect standards but he's not young either. He adds to the impressive infield depth Oakland is stockpiling in its system, joining Matt Chapman, Renato Nunez, Franklin Barreto, Richie Martin, Yairo Munoz, Joey Wendle, and former Nationals prospect Max Schrock. Jesus Luzardo was the Nationals' third round pick in 2016, but he could have gone higher had he not gone down with Tommy John surgery before the draft. Finally healthy, the 19 year old made his pro debut on June 28th, and through three starts so far, he's been excellent, going 1-0 with a 1.32 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, striking out 15 and walking nobody in 13.2 innings for the GCL Nationals. Focusing merely on pounding the strike zone for now, he's been fairly hittable, allowing 14 hits in those 13.2 innings for a .259 opponents' batting average, but given the overall results, you'll take it every time for a teenager working his way back from surgery. It will be a few years before he's ready for the majors, but he could be a mid-rotation starter around the year 2020.
Friday, July 14, 2017
Cubs Add Quintana to Rotation
Cubs Get: Jose Quintana (4-8, 4.49 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 109/40 K/BB, Age 28)
White Sox Get: Eloy Jimenez (8 HR, 32 RBI, .271 AVG, 0 SB, 131 wRC+ at High Class A, Age 20)
Dylan Cease (1-2, 2.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 74/26 K/BB at Class A, Age 21)
Bryant Flete (6 HR, 37 RBI, .305 AVG, 4 SB, 117 wRC+ at High Class A, Age 24)
Matt Rose (14 HR, 38 RBI, .227 AVG, 0 SB, 105 wRC+ at High Class A, Age 22)
The Cubs struggled to a 43-45 record in the first half, but with one of the strongest rosters in baseball, they are still very much looking to contend this season. Due to a lackluster rotation that has seen pretty much every starter underperform, they added the young, controllable Jose Quintana in a deal with the cross-town White Sox. Quintana is under contract through the 2020 season for just over $30 million total, so he can help the team not just this year, but in 2018, 2019, and 2020. One of baseball's more underrated starters, he was one of the best pitchers in the American League in 2016, going 13-12 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, striking out 181 batters and walking just 50 in 208 innings. He hasn't been as good in 2017, going 4-8 with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, but he has been turning things around as of late. He went 2-7 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over the first two months of the season, spanning eleven starts, but since the start of June, he is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, striking out 45 batters to just 12 walks in 40 innings over seven starts. In the Cubs current rotation, Jon Lester (5-6, 4.25 ERA), Jake Arrieta (8-7, 4.35 ERA), John Lackey (5-9, 5.20 ERA), and Kyle Hendricks (4-3, 4.09 ERA) have all been disappointing, so the addition of Quintana will be very welcome. Eddie Butler (4-3, 3.88 ERA) actually leads Cubs starters in ERA, so it will be interesting how they decide to go about fitting Quintana into the rotation. For his career, the Colombia native is 50-54 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 172 games (169 starts), all with the White Sox.
To get three and a half years of a #2 starter, you're going to have to give up a fair amount, and the Cubs did just that. The White Sox, who already added top prospects Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Dane Dunning, and Luis Alexander Basabe, among others, to their system via recent trades, got a few more here. Highlighting the return package is Eloy Jimenez, a 20 year old outfielder who could be a multi-category contributor in the majors. Always known for his potential, he had a breakout year at Class A South Bend in 2016 (.329/.369/.532, 14 HR) and was promoted to High Class A Myrtle Beach this year, where he was slashing .271/.351/.490 with eight home runs at the time of the trade. He'll be 20 for all of 2017, so he has plenty of time to develop into an impact player. Dylan Cease was a sixth round pick out of high school in 2014 after blowing out his elbow, but has developed into a solid starting pitching prospect, posting a career 2.58 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over parts of three minor league seasons. So far with Class A South Bend this year, he has a 2.79 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP through 13 starts, striking out 74 batters in 51.2 innings. The 6'2" righty won't turn 22 until after the season, and with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a power curveball, he has front of the rotation potential. While Jimenez and Cease are the clear headliners, second baseman Bryant Flete offers helps offer organizational depth for the Sox. Signed back in 2012 out of Venezuela, Flete's development hasn't gone in a straight line, as he reached AA in 2015 but spent most of 2016 at Class A and all of 2017 at High Class A. With Myrtle Beach this year, he slashed .305/.355/.425 with six home runs, flashing utility upside but ultimately not performing the way one would hope for a 24 year old. He has average tools across the board. Lastly, first baseman Matt Rose has shown some big power in the minors but has struggled with contact. An 11th round pick out of Georgia State in 2015, Rose slashed .227/.281/.481 with 14 home runs for High Class A Myrtle Beach this year, but he has struck out in 24.8% of his plate appearances while walking in just 5.9%. As he is, he won't make it to the major leagues on his power alone, but if he can improve his plate discipline, there is room for a guy who can walk and hit home runs. Right now, though, he doesn't walk.
White Sox Get: Eloy Jimenez (8 HR, 32 RBI, .271 AVG, 0 SB, 131 wRC+ at High Class A, Age 20)
Dylan Cease (1-2, 2.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 74/26 K/BB at Class A, Age 21)
Bryant Flete (6 HR, 37 RBI, .305 AVG, 4 SB, 117 wRC+ at High Class A, Age 24)
Matt Rose (14 HR, 38 RBI, .227 AVG, 0 SB, 105 wRC+ at High Class A, Age 22)
The Cubs struggled to a 43-45 record in the first half, but with one of the strongest rosters in baseball, they are still very much looking to contend this season. Due to a lackluster rotation that has seen pretty much every starter underperform, they added the young, controllable Jose Quintana in a deal with the cross-town White Sox. Quintana is under contract through the 2020 season for just over $30 million total, so he can help the team not just this year, but in 2018, 2019, and 2020. One of baseball's more underrated starters, he was one of the best pitchers in the American League in 2016, going 13-12 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, striking out 181 batters and walking just 50 in 208 innings. He hasn't been as good in 2017, going 4-8 with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, but he has been turning things around as of late. He went 2-7 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over the first two months of the season, spanning eleven starts, but since the start of June, he is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, striking out 45 batters to just 12 walks in 40 innings over seven starts. In the Cubs current rotation, Jon Lester (5-6, 4.25 ERA), Jake Arrieta (8-7, 4.35 ERA), John Lackey (5-9, 5.20 ERA), and Kyle Hendricks (4-3, 4.09 ERA) have all been disappointing, so the addition of Quintana will be very welcome. Eddie Butler (4-3, 3.88 ERA) actually leads Cubs starters in ERA, so it will be interesting how they decide to go about fitting Quintana into the rotation. For his career, the Colombia native is 50-54 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 172 games (169 starts), all with the White Sox.
To get three and a half years of a #2 starter, you're going to have to give up a fair amount, and the Cubs did just that. The White Sox, who already added top prospects Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Dane Dunning, and Luis Alexander Basabe, among others, to their system via recent trades, got a few more here. Highlighting the return package is Eloy Jimenez, a 20 year old outfielder who could be a multi-category contributor in the majors. Always known for his potential, he had a breakout year at Class A South Bend in 2016 (.329/.369/.532, 14 HR) and was promoted to High Class A Myrtle Beach this year, where he was slashing .271/.351/.490 with eight home runs at the time of the trade. He'll be 20 for all of 2017, so he has plenty of time to develop into an impact player. Dylan Cease was a sixth round pick out of high school in 2014 after blowing out his elbow, but has developed into a solid starting pitching prospect, posting a career 2.58 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over parts of three minor league seasons. So far with Class A South Bend this year, he has a 2.79 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP through 13 starts, striking out 74 batters in 51.2 innings. The 6'2" righty won't turn 22 until after the season, and with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a power curveball, he has front of the rotation potential. While Jimenez and Cease are the clear headliners, second baseman Bryant Flete offers helps offer organizational depth for the Sox. Signed back in 2012 out of Venezuela, Flete's development hasn't gone in a straight line, as he reached AA in 2015 but spent most of 2016 at Class A and all of 2017 at High Class A. With Myrtle Beach this year, he slashed .305/.355/.425 with six home runs, flashing utility upside but ultimately not performing the way one would hope for a 24 year old. He has average tools across the board. Lastly, first baseman Matt Rose has shown some big power in the minors but has struggled with contact. An 11th round pick out of Georgia State in 2015, Rose slashed .227/.281/.481 with 14 home runs for High Class A Myrtle Beach this year, but he has struck out in 24.8% of his plate appearances while walking in just 5.9%. As he is, he won't make it to the major leagues on his power alone, but if he can improve his plate discipline, there is room for a guy who can walk and hit home runs. Right now, though, he doesn't walk.
2017 Draft Review: San Francisco Giants
First 5 rounds: Heliot Ramos (1-19), Jacob Gonzalez (2-58), Seth Corry (3-96), Garrett Cave (4-126), Jason Bahr (5-156)
Also notable: Bryce Johnson (6-186), John Gavin (8-246), Rob Calabrese (10-306), Doug Still (11-336), Orlando Garcia (15-456)
In my opinion, the Giants came away with a pretty unexciting draft haul. There is some upside here, but early in the draft, there were better options available when they made their selections. Ultimately, the Ramos selection will make or break this draft, because if he pans out, it will be a lot easier to swallow what I see as reaches with Gonzalez and Corry. Interestingly, though their first three picks were high schoolers, the Giants took 30 consecutive college or junior college players in rounds four through 33.
1-19: OF Heliot Ramos (my rank: 37)
Ramos was difficult to evaluate due to the lack of recent public video, but he is one of the biggest wild cards in this draft when it comes to his on-field projection. Not turning 18 until September, he is one of the youngest players in the class, and he had some of the most helium in the class as well. He showcases the loud tools scouts love, including easy plus speed and power, and he has the ceiling of a Carlos Beltran or Alfonso Soriano dual-threat player. As one would expect from a 17 year old Puerto Rican, he is also extremely raw, and his approach at the plate needs significant refinement before he is ready to face higher level competition. He has a simple, quick swing, so his refinement going forward is going to be much more about adjusting to higher levels than it will be about mechanics. Ramos signed for just over $3.1 million, at slot for the 19th pick.
2-58: 1B/3B Jacob Gonzalez (my rank: 146)
The son of former World Series hero Luis Gonzalez, Jacob is a power high school bat from Arizona. Gonzalez could easily hit 30 home runs in the majors, but he'll have to significantly improve his contact, which is below average at this point. His swing mechanics can be inconsistent and swing and miss has been an issue even at the high school level, and as a likely first baseman or left fielder, the pressure will be on his bat. He's also somewhat old for his class, having turned 19 in June. Gonzalez signed for $950,000, which is $171,300 below slot.
3-96: LHP Seth Corry (my rank: 123)
A third straight high schooler and in my opinion, at least a second straight reach, Corry struggles with command but can sit in the low 90's with a straight fastball and a good curveball. While the fastball/curveball package is a good one despite the lack of life on his fastball, the fact that Corry can't command the fastball and the fact that he has trouble repeating his delivery lead some evaluators to think he's best off in the bullpen, where he can run his fastball into the mid 90's and won't have to worry about a changeup. He's a 6'2" lefty, which is a plus, but he's a risky pick. Corry signed for $1 million, which is $441,500 above slot.
4-126: RHP Garrett Cave (my rank: 99)
Coming from DII Tampa, Cave is an interesting arm to say the least. In relief, he can run his fastball into the upper 90's with a power slider, though the fastball, like Corry's, is straight and he can't command it. He has a chance to be a fast mover and reach the majors as a bullpen arm quickly as long as he can throw the ball somewhere near the strike zone, but the Giants could choose to make him a starter and pray they can fix his command. He has done a good job of maintaining mid 90's velocity even as a starter. Cave signed for $417,200, at slot for the 126th pick.
5-156: RHP Jason Bahr (unranked)
Who doesn't like a fun success story? Bahr didn't get to pitch in 2014, made just one appearance in 2015, and was cut from the University of Central Florida baseball team for the 2016 season. Pitching well over the summer, new head coach Greg Lovelady picked him back up and stuck him on the UCF pitching staff for the 2017 season, and Bahr shined. Over 24 games (five starts), the 6'5" righty went 0-2 with a 2.97 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and 98 strikeouts to just 15 walks in 60.2 innings. He sits 93-94 in relief and commands it well enough, though his secondaries will need significant work if he wants to reach the majors. Bahr signed for $250,000, which is $60,800 below slot.
Others: 6th rounder Bryce Johnson was a three year starter at Sam Houston State, where he made a name for himself with his advanced approach at the plate, plus speed, and plus defense in center field. He has almost no power, but he was a consistent performer all three years in Huntsville, slashing .338/.418/.409 with three home runs and 69 stolen bases in 184 games. He had his best year as a junior this year, slashing .350/.453/.433 with 33 stolen bases, and he profiles best as a fourth outfielder going forward but with a chance to be Denard Span or Ben Revere. 8th rounder John Gavin was a three year performer at Cal State Fullerton, finishing a successful career 21-8 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 53 games (48 starts). The 6'6" lefty sits around 90 with his fastball and has below average secondaries, leaving him very little margin for error, but he commands everything well and is extremely durable, giving him a chance to be a back-end starter. 10th rounder Rob Calabrese was the star of the University of Illinois-Chicago's offense this year, slashing .353/.425/.583 with eight home runs in 56 games, striking out in just 10.7% of his at bats. As a catcher, the pressure will be more on his glove than his bat, and he could hit his way into a back-up catcher's role. 11th rounder Doug Still burst onto the scene at Missouri State as a transfer from Jefferson College, going 8-3 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in his first season in Division I baseball, striking out 89 and walking 27 in 103 innings. Missouri State has produced a lot of great pitching in the past, including Ross Detwiler, Brad Ziegler, Shaun Marcum, and Jon Harris, and Still could work his way up as a durable lefty. 15th rounder Orlando Garcia improved every year at Texas Tech, finishing with a solid junior year in which he slashed .305/.386/.550 with 13 home runs in 59 games, and he's a great defender who can stick at shortstop in pro ball. Plate discipline is one thing holding him back, as he struck out in 24.5% of his plate appearances and walked in just 10.3%. He could be a utility man down the line.
Also notable: Bryce Johnson (6-186), John Gavin (8-246), Rob Calabrese (10-306), Doug Still (11-336), Orlando Garcia (15-456)
In my opinion, the Giants came away with a pretty unexciting draft haul. There is some upside here, but early in the draft, there were better options available when they made their selections. Ultimately, the Ramos selection will make or break this draft, because if he pans out, it will be a lot easier to swallow what I see as reaches with Gonzalez and Corry. Interestingly, though their first three picks were high schoolers, the Giants took 30 consecutive college or junior college players in rounds four through 33.
1-19: OF Heliot Ramos (my rank: 37)
Ramos was difficult to evaluate due to the lack of recent public video, but he is one of the biggest wild cards in this draft when it comes to his on-field projection. Not turning 18 until September, he is one of the youngest players in the class, and he had some of the most helium in the class as well. He showcases the loud tools scouts love, including easy plus speed and power, and he has the ceiling of a Carlos Beltran or Alfonso Soriano dual-threat player. As one would expect from a 17 year old Puerto Rican, he is also extremely raw, and his approach at the plate needs significant refinement before he is ready to face higher level competition. He has a simple, quick swing, so his refinement going forward is going to be much more about adjusting to higher levels than it will be about mechanics. Ramos signed for just over $3.1 million, at slot for the 19th pick.
2-58: 1B/3B Jacob Gonzalez (my rank: 146)
The son of former World Series hero Luis Gonzalez, Jacob is a power high school bat from Arizona. Gonzalez could easily hit 30 home runs in the majors, but he'll have to significantly improve his contact, which is below average at this point. His swing mechanics can be inconsistent and swing and miss has been an issue even at the high school level, and as a likely first baseman or left fielder, the pressure will be on his bat. He's also somewhat old for his class, having turned 19 in June. Gonzalez signed for $950,000, which is $171,300 below slot.
3-96: LHP Seth Corry (my rank: 123)
A third straight high schooler and in my opinion, at least a second straight reach, Corry struggles with command but can sit in the low 90's with a straight fastball and a good curveball. While the fastball/curveball package is a good one despite the lack of life on his fastball, the fact that Corry can't command the fastball and the fact that he has trouble repeating his delivery lead some evaluators to think he's best off in the bullpen, where he can run his fastball into the mid 90's and won't have to worry about a changeup. He's a 6'2" lefty, which is a plus, but he's a risky pick. Corry signed for $1 million, which is $441,500 above slot.
4-126: RHP Garrett Cave (my rank: 99)
Coming from DII Tampa, Cave is an interesting arm to say the least. In relief, he can run his fastball into the upper 90's with a power slider, though the fastball, like Corry's, is straight and he can't command it. He has a chance to be a fast mover and reach the majors as a bullpen arm quickly as long as he can throw the ball somewhere near the strike zone, but the Giants could choose to make him a starter and pray they can fix his command. He has done a good job of maintaining mid 90's velocity even as a starter. Cave signed for $417,200, at slot for the 126th pick.
5-156: RHP Jason Bahr (unranked)
Who doesn't like a fun success story? Bahr didn't get to pitch in 2014, made just one appearance in 2015, and was cut from the University of Central Florida baseball team for the 2016 season. Pitching well over the summer, new head coach Greg Lovelady picked him back up and stuck him on the UCF pitching staff for the 2017 season, and Bahr shined. Over 24 games (five starts), the 6'5" righty went 0-2 with a 2.97 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and 98 strikeouts to just 15 walks in 60.2 innings. He sits 93-94 in relief and commands it well enough, though his secondaries will need significant work if he wants to reach the majors. Bahr signed for $250,000, which is $60,800 below slot.
Others: 6th rounder Bryce Johnson was a three year starter at Sam Houston State, where he made a name for himself with his advanced approach at the plate, plus speed, and plus defense in center field. He has almost no power, but he was a consistent performer all three years in Huntsville, slashing .338/.418/.409 with three home runs and 69 stolen bases in 184 games. He had his best year as a junior this year, slashing .350/.453/.433 with 33 stolen bases, and he profiles best as a fourth outfielder going forward but with a chance to be Denard Span or Ben Revere. 8th rounder John Gavin was a three year performer at Cal State Fullerton, finishing a successful career 21-8 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 53 games (48 starts). The 6'6" lefty sits around 90 with his fastball and has below average secondaries, leaving him very little margin for error, but he commands everything well and is extremely durable, giving him a chance to be a back-end starter. 10th rounder Rob Calabrese was the star of the University of Illinois-Chicago's offense this year, slashing .353/.425/.583 with eight home runs in 56 games, striking out in just 10.7% of his at bats. As a catcher, the pressure will be more on his glove than his bat, and he could hit his way into a back-up catcher's role. 11th rounder Doug Still burst onto the scene at Missouri State as a transfer from Jefferson College, going 8-3 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in his first season in Division I baseball, striking out 89 and walking 27 in 103 innings. Missouri State has produced a lot of great pitching in the past, including Ross Detwiler, Brad Ziegler, Shaun Marcum, and Jon Harris, and Still could work his way up as a durable lefty. 15th rounder Orlando Garcia improved every year at Texas Tech, finishing with a solid junior year in which he slashed .305/.386/.550 with 13 home runs in 59 games, and he's a great defender who can stick at shortstop in pro ball. Plate discipline is one thing holding him back, as he struck out in 24.5% of his plate appearances and walked in just 10.3%. He could be a utility man down the line.
Thursday, July 13, 2017
First Half Awards
AL MVP: Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): 30 HR, 66 RBI, .329 AVG, 6 SB, 197 wRC+.
After a fairly miserable debut in 2016 (.179/.263/.345), Judge has been unstoppable in his first full season, slashing .329/.448/.691 with 30 home runs through 84 games, already setting the Yankees rookie home run record and winning a Home Run Derby. His 197 wRC+ shows that he's creating nearly twice as many runs as the league average hitter, and although he has struck out in 29.8% of his plate appearances, he has also walked in 16.7%, providing value in more than just home run power. His outside-the-zone swing percentage is down from 33.6% last year to 24.1% this year, showing sustainable success. Mark McGwire holds the rookie record with 49 home runs, but Judge is just 19 away and could easily become the first rookie ever to hit 50 in a season. His on-base percentage sits at .448 right now, and even if he follows Steamer's fairly pessimistic projection and posts a .352 OBP for the rest of the season, he'll still finish at .408, so he's the whole offensive package. He's been worth 5.5 fWAR this year, well ahead of second-place Jose Altuve's 4.4.
Runner-up: Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Indians): 17 HR, 48 RBI, .332 AVG, 10 SB, 157 wRC+.
After Judge, there are a lot of players who have produced about the same amount this year, but I chose to put Ramirez in the runner-up spot because of the ridiculous amount of lineup protection in Houston, where George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa all could easily fill this spot. Ramirez has put up his own crazy-good numbers without the same amount of protection in the lineup, slashing .332/.388/.601 with 17 home runs and 27 doubles through 86 games. Adding ten stolen bases and good defense at third base, he has been worth 3.9 fWAR, holding up more than his fair share of the responsibility as part of the Indians young dynamic duo with Francisco Lindor. He's been especially hot as of late, slashing .401/.446/.774 since June 3rd, spearheading the Indians' run to the top of the AL Central.
Honorable mentions: Jose Altuve (13 HR, .347 AVG, 18 SB, 161 wRC+), George Springer (27 HR, .310 AVG, 2 SB, 164 wRC+), Carlos Correa (20 HR, .325 AVG, 0 SB, 161 wRC+), Mike Trout (16 HR, .337 AVG, 10 SB, 208 wRC+)
NL MVP: Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals): 20 HR, 65 RBI, .325 AVG, 2 SB, 161 wRC+.
Bryce has been producing back at his 2015 levels, slashing .325/.431/.590 in the middle of a lineup that has been one of the most prolific in baseball. He sits second to Joey Votto in just about every offensive category, but because he adds value with good defense in right field, he truly contributes to the Nationals in every way he can. He slumped a bit in late May and into early June, but he seems to have rebounded and is slashing .433/.528/.700 in the month of July, currently sitting on an eight game hitting streak. Overall, he has been worth 3.8 fWAR.
Runner-up: Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): 26 HR, 68 RBI, .315 AVG, 3 SB, 167 wRC+.
Votto's edge over Paul Goldschmidt is razor thin, but I think he has just enough to take the runner-up spot, slashing .315/.427/.631 with 26 home runs through 88 games. Arguably the closest thing this generation of baseball players has to Ted Williams, Votto has walked in 16.1% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 10.9%. He hits for power, he gets on base, he makes the hitters around him better, and he's overall one of the very first bats I'd pick to be in my lineup this year. What's even crazier is that his .291 BABIP says that he may have been the recipient of bad luck so far, especially considering his career rate is .354, though his hard hit rate and soft hit rates aren't quite as stellar as they have been in the past, so who knows. What we do know is that Votto leads the NL in home runs (26), slugging percentage (.631), OPS (1.058), wOBA (.432), and wRC+ (167), and that he has been worth 3.8 fWAR.
Honorable mentions: Paul Goldschmidt (20 HR, .312 AVG, 13 SB, 153 wRC+), Daniel Murphy (14 HR, .342 AVG, 1 SB, 146 wRC+), Justin Turner (10 HR, .377 AVG, 2 SB, 183 wRC+), Ryan Zimmerman (19 HR, .330 AVG, 1 SB, 148 wRC+).
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (Boston Red Sox): 11-4, 2.75 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 178/22 K/BB.
During his time with the White Sox, Sale bounced back and forth between "very good" and "excellent," and when he was shipped over to a tougher division and a tougher home park in Boston, it was expected that his numbers would revert back to "very good," at least at first, as had happened with David Price. However, Sale had no intentions of letting that happen, instead putting himself on pace for what may be the best season of his career with a 2.75 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. He has struck out 35.9% of the batters he has faced, which is a ridiculous number for a starter, meanwhile walking only 4.4%. He has been surprisingly consistent, as you might be surprised to hear he has just three scoreless starts this season, but he hasn't been blown up in any, either. His best start came on April 20th, when he struck out 13 Blue Jays over eight shutout innings, allowing four hits and walking just one. His worst start came in his return to Chicago, when the White Sox touched him up for six runs (five earned) over five innings, but he still struck out nine.
Runner-up: Dallas Keuchel (Houston Astros): 9-0, 1.67 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 69/18 K/BB.
Keuchel has only made eleven starts due to injuries, but no pitcher other than Chris Sale has been able to step in and firmly take over this runner-up spot, with even the best pitchers' ERA's creeping up close to 3.00. Over a month ago, when Keuchel made his most recent start, he was the clear front runner for the AL Cy Young Award, holding a 1.67 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and just 48 hits allowed in 75.2 innings. He has given up more than two runs in just one of his eleven starts, when manager A.J. Hinch left him in too long and he gave up three runs in the ninth inning while vying for a complete game. Other than that easily avoidable bad-on-paper start, he is 9-0 with a 1.20 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. When he's on the mound, he's easily been the most dominant pitcher in baseball this year, and we're eagerly awaiting his imminent return.
Honorable mentions: Corey Kluber (7-3, 2.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP), Jason Vargas (12-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), Ervin Santana (10-6, 2.99 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), Carlos Carrasco (10-3, 3.44 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).
NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals): 10-5, 2.10 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 173/27 K/BB.
Slowly and steadily, Max Scherzer has put up an amazing season. His 0.78 WHIP is lower than any full National League season since 1876, and if he can maintain the pace he is on, it will be the second lowest in MLB history, trailing only Pedro Martinez's 0.74 in 2000. He's also leading the MLB in ERA this year at 2.10, enough to give him the rare edge over Clayton Kershaw for NL Cy Young. He has absolutely dominated almost every time out, reaching double digits in strikeouts in 11 of his 18 starts and striking out at least one batter per inning in all 18. In terms of consistency, his worst month in terms of both ERA and WHIP was April, when he went 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP, striking out 40 batters in 33.2 innings. Not bad for your worst month.
Runner-up: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers): 14-2, 2.18 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 159/22 K/BB.
We're seeing classic Clayton Kershaw, as he is in the middle of posting his fifth straight season with an ERA below 2.20 and a WHIP below 0.95. Like Scherzer, the highest ERA he has posted in any month was a 2.43 mark in May, and he has shown the uncanny ability to bounce back from tough starts and keep them from snowballing. He has only allowed more than two runs in a game four times this year, but in his subsequent start after each of those games, he is 4-0 with a 0.94 ERA and a 0.59 WHIP, striking out 39 in 28.2 innings. Nobody gets to Kershaw two starts in a row, and that's part of what makes him great.
Honorable mentions: Zack Greinke (11-4, 2.86 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), Robbie Ray (8-4, 2.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), Ivan Nova (9-6, 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), Gio Gonzalez (7-4, 2.86 ERA, 1.23 WHIP).
AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): 30 HR, 66 RBI, .329 AVG, 6 SB, 197 wRC+.
See MVP write-up. If Judge gets his projected 252 additional plate appearances this year (Steamer) and literally strikes out in every single one, he'd still slash .176/.290/.370 with 30 home runs, which would still theoretically have him in the running.
Runner-up: Andrew Benintendi (Boston Red Sox): 12 HR, 51 RBI, .279 AVG, 9 SB, 106 wRC+.
Benintendi won't catch Judge, but he's having a fine season in his own right. Through 82 games, Benintendi, who just over two years ago was still suiting up for the Arkansas Razorbacks, is slashing .279/.357/.446 with 12 home runs and nine stolen bases, showcasing an all around game that will be hugely valuable for the Red Sox in the coming years. If you look closer, though, he's actually having a better season than the numbers say. He had a horrible slump in which he went hitless in seven straight games from May 10th to the 17th, totaling 26 at bats, but outside of that, he's been putting up All Star numbers: all 12 of his home runs (obviously) with a .305/.375/.487 slash line. With his low .299 BABIP, he'll likely finish the season with better numbers than he has right now. He has been worth 1.4 fWAR this year.
Honorable mentions: Trey Mancini (14 HR, 44 RBI, .312 AVG, 1 SB, 133 wRC+), Jordan Montgomery (6-4, 3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), Yulieski Gurriel (11 HR, 44 RBI, .297 AVG, 1 SB, 115 wRC+), Danny Barnes (2-2, 2.31 ERA, 0.90 WHIP)
NL Rookie of the Year: Cody Bellinger (Los Angeles Dodgers): 25 HR, 58 RBI, .261 AVG, 5 SB, 145 wRC+.
While Bellinger hasn't quite dominated the NL the way Aaron Judge has dominated the AL, he's been quite amazing in his 70 games, slashing .261/.342/.619 with 25 home runs. He may not hit .300 to back up his power, but he has supplemented his average .261 batting average with 33 walks, good for 11.3% of his plate appearances and a .342 on base percentage. Of course, when you're slugging over .600 with those 25 home runs, anything more than an acceptable OBP is just a bonus. He already has six multi-homer games. From May 5th to June 25th, a span of just 48 games, he blasted 21 home runs. His uppercut is, in my opinion, baseball's most aesthetically pleasing swing, and when you add in his great defense, he's a complete player. He's been worth 2.3 fWAR this season.
Runner-up: Kyle Freeland (Colorado Rockies): 9-7, 3.77 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 65/41 K/BB.
Freeland has been an enigma this year. The 8th overall pick of the 2014 draft, Freeland has kept his ERA under 4.00 despite pitching half his games in Coors Field, an extremely difficult place to be a pitcher. Oddly enough, he has been way better at Coors (5-4, 3.23 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) than he has been on the road (4-3, 4.35 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). Additionally, he's somehow getting it done with a low strikeout rate (14%) and a high walk rate (8.8%) that should theoretically hurt him in an environment where any ball put in play is dangerous. He has induced 1.8 ground outs for every fly out, so he does have that going in his favor. In his final start before the All Star Break, he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the White Sox and finished with 8.1 shutout innings on one hit, three walks, and nine strikeouts at Coors Field.
Honorable mentions: Jesus Aguilar (9 HR, 34 RBI, .294 AVG, 0 SB, 131 wRC+), Josh Bell (16 HR, 44 RBI, .239 AVG, 2 SB, 107 wRC+), Antonio Senzatela (9-3, 4.63 ERA, 1.24 WHIP), Ian Happ (13 HR, 31 RBI, .257 AVG, 3 SB, 122 wRC+).
2017 Draft Review: San Diego Padres
First 5 rounds: MacKenzie Gore (1-3), Luis Campusano (2-39), Blake Hunt (CBB-69), Mason House (3-78), Sam Keating (4-108), Jonny Hozma (5-138)
Also notable: Alex Cunningham (9-258), Dominic Taccolini (10-288), Nick Feight (19-558), Daniel Cabrera (26-768)
The Padres threw all the chips in and took high risk high schoolers with each of their first six picks: two pitchers (always the injury risk), two catchers (low success rate historically), and two guys from way off the prospect map (one who played no major showcase events, one from Alaska...Alaska). The Padres' major league team doesn't really have anything going for it right now other than Wil Myers and the vastly underrated Ryan Schimpf, so they have time to toy around with some high risk, high reward prospects.
1-3: LHP MacKenzie Gore (my rank: 4)
Coming into the season, Gore was in the first round conversation but was projected to go somewhere in the back half or even in the Competitive Balance Round, outside the top 30, but a spectacular spring had his name rocketing up draft boards to the point where he was in the conversation for first overall pick. The Padres ultimately grabbed him with the third pick, even with names like Kyle Wright and Brendan McKay still on the board. The high school lefty from the small town of Whiteville, North Carolina, population fewer than 6,000, is everything scouts love. Aside from being lefty, he's 6'3" and well built, can hit the mid 90's with his fastball, has a big, hard curveball that can put batters away, and has made progress on a changeup. He's extremely competitive in the best way, bringing a bulldog mentality to the mound that reminds some of fellow rural North Carolina lefty Madison Bumgarner. Gore has a lot of wasted movement in his delivery which leads pessimists to believe he'll land in the bullpen, but optimists, myself included, see the opportunity to streamline everything and possibly add even more velocity and sharpness. He has true top of the rotation potential, but as a high school pitcher, he naturally comes with the considerable risk of completely flopping. Gore signed for $6.7 million, which is $31,900 above slot.
2-39: C Luis Campusano (my rank: 51)
Another riser in this draft class, Campusano hit his way to the top of the catching class with M.J. Melendez (Royals, 2-52), coming from high school near Augusta, Georgia. The first thing scouts noticed was that he came into the season in excellent physical condition, which is a plus both on the field, where it helps performance, and off the field, where it hints towards a strong work ethic. While he doesn't project to win any Gold Gloves, he's good enough behind the plate to be able to stick there, though high school catchers have a low success rate historically. At the plate, he is power over contact, showing plus power from a simple swing, but he hasn't proven his ability to make contact against advanced pitching. If he can't make contact, he can't get to his power, and that renders everything else useless. He's got some Rod Barajas in him, but he could end up a far superior player to the former catcher. He'll have to make contact to do so, though. He signed for $1.3 million, $460,700 below slot.
CBB-69: C Blake Hunt (my rank: 96)
Hunt, a southern California high school product, will have a lot of work to do to reach his ceiling. He's great defensively, actually better behind the plate than Campusano, but his swing has more issues. Hunt possesses some power potential with his short, powerful swing, but he doesn't get much extension and his stride doesn't gain any ground. The Padres will have to toy with both the stride and his swing path, giving him lots of bust potential, but between him and Campusano, the Padres are hoping to get their next MLB catcher. Hunt signed for $1.6 million, $751,400 above slot.
3-78: OF Mason House (my rank: 85)
For some reason, all of the public baseball video on House amounts to one swing, so I have to lean heavily on online scouting reports. He's a power left handed bat who scouts had a tough time evaluating because he didn't play any major showcase events, and his small town Whitehouse, Texas high school didn't play any high level competition. From that one in-game swing I saw online, the swing seems a bit long, but being raw is forgivable in his case. He's a good athlete who can run, so he's not a one-dimensional bat, and he'll be an interesting prospect to follow. House signed for $732,200, at slot for the 78th pick.
4-108: RHP Sam Keating (unranked)
Keating is on the right trajectory, with his velocity and stuff improving steadily over the past year. He began sitting consistently in the low 90's this spring, and his slider and curveball have become more distinct from each other. He has a loose arm and an easy delivery, so as long as he stays healthy and continues his current path, he could be a big league starter. Standing 6'3", he's a classic starting pitching prospect. Keating signed for $900,000, which is $403,000 over slot.
26-768: OF Daniel Cabrera (my rank: 73)
Cabrera won't sign here in the 26th round, likely instead attending LSU, but he's a solid hit over power prospect. He has a quick left handed, line drive swing, and he should be a safe bet to hit for average and get on base at higher levels. However, most of his other tools are at or below average, and he isn't overall an exciting prospect. That could change after three years in Baton Rouge, but for now, he'll have to prove he can be more than a one-dimensional player.
Others: 5th rounder Jonny Homza comes from South Anchorage High School in Alaska, but the Padres were able to buy him out of attending Hawaii for $250,000, which is $121,200 under slot. He was drafted as a third baseman despite his ability to catch, and he has a strong swing that is similar to Blake Hunt's. As an extreme cold weather player, he has a lot of work to do, but it could pay off. 9th rounder Alex Cunningham was an integral part of Coastal Carolina's run to the 2016 NCAA Championship, going 10-4 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, but he returned to school this year and was even better. As a senior, he went 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, striking out 117 batters in 106 innings while walking just 24. Already 23, he should be a quick mover through the minors, already seeing a promotion to High Class A Lake Elsinore. 10th rounder Dominic Taccolini played four years at Arkansas, alongside the likes of Andrew Benintendi, Zach Jackson, and Blaine Knight, but he never quite put it together on the mound. He finished with a decent senior year, going 4-1 with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP against tough SEC competition, striking out 49 in 51 innings. Taccolini will also be a quick mover through the minors, likely as a reliever whose stuff could suddenly jump forward in pro ball. 19th rounder Nick Feight was a big reason that UNC-Wilmington's offense was among the most feared in college baseball in 2016, slashing .349/.412/.726 with 21 home runs against admittedly weak Colonial Athletic Association competition. He took a small step back in 2017, slashing .293/.355/.536 with 15 home runs as a junior, and as a first baseman, his bat will have to carry him. The Northern Virginia native (Battlefield HS) performed reasonably well on the Cape (.270/.316/.416), but he's likely an organizational bat unless he can take a big step forward offensively.
Also notable: Alex Cunningham (9-258), Dominic Taccolini (10-288), Nick Feight (19-558), Daniel Cabrera (26-768)
The Padres threw all the chips in and took high risk high schoolers with each of their first six picks: two pitchers (always the injury risk), two catchers (low success rate historically), and two guys from way off the prospect map (one who played no major showcase events, one from Alaska...Alaska). The Padres' major league team doesn't really have anything going for it right now other than Wil Myers and the vastly underrated Ryan Schimpf, so they have time to toy around with some high risk, high reward prospects.
1-3: LHP MacKenzie Gore (my rank: 4)
Coming into the season, Gore was in the first round conversation but was projected to go somewhere in the back half or even in the Competitive Balance Round, outside the top 30, but a spectacular spring had his name rocketing up draft boards to the point where he was in the conversation for first overall pick. The Padres ultimately grabbed him with the third pick, even with names like Kyle Wright and Brendan McKay still on the board. The high school lefty from the small town of Whiteville, North Carolina, population fewer than 6,000, is everything scouts love. Aside from being lefty, he's 6'3" and well built, can hit the mid 90's with his fastball, has a big, hard curveball that can put batters away, and has made progress on a changeup. He's extremely competitive in the best way, bringing a bulldog mentality to the mound that reminds some of fellow rural North Carolina lefty Madison Bumgarner. Gore has a lot of wasted movement in his delivery which leads pessimists to believe he'll land in the bullpen, but optimists, myself included, see the opportunity to streamline everything and possibly add even more velocity and sharpness. He has true top of the rotation potential, but as a high school pitcher, he naturally comes with the considerable risk of completely flopping. Gore signed for $6.7 million, which is $31,900 above slot.
2-39: C Luis Campusano (my rank: 51)
Another riser in this draft class, Campusano hit his way to the top of the catching class with M.J. Melendez (Royals, 2-52), coming from high school near Augusta, Georgia. The first thing scouts noticed was that he came into the season in excellent physical condition, which is a plus both on the field, where it helps performance, and off the field, where it hints towards a strong work ethic. While he doesn't project to win any Gold Gloves, he's good enough behind the plate to be able to stick there, though high school catchers have a low success rate historically. At the plate, he is power over contact, showing plus power from a simple swing, but he hasn't proven his ability to make contact against advanced pitching. If he can't make contact, he can't get to his power, and that renders everything else useless. He's got some Rod Barajas in him, but he could end up a far superior player to the former catcher. He'll have to make contact to do so, though. He signed for $1.3 million, $460,700 below slot.
CBB-69: C Blake Hunt (my rank: 96)
Hunt, a southern California high school product, will have a lot of work to do to reach his ceiling. He's great defensively, actually better behind the plate than Campusano, but his swing has more issues. Hunt possesses some power potential with his short, powerful swing, but he doesn't get much extension and his stride doesn't gain any ground. The Padres will have to toy with both the stride and his swing path, giving him lots of bust potential, but between him and Campusano, the Padres are hoping to get their next MLB catcher. Hunt signed for $1.6 million, $751,400 above slot.
3-78: OF Mason House (my rank: 85)
For some reason, all of the public baseball video on House amounts to one swing, so I have to lean heavily on online scouting reports. He's a power left handed bat who scouts had a tough time evaluating because he didn't play any major showcase events, and his small town Whitehouse, Texas high school didn't play any high level competition. From that one in-game swing I saw online, the swing seems a bit long, but being raw is forgivable in his case. He's a good athlete who can run, so he's not a one-dimensional bat, and he'll be an interesting prospect to follow. House signed for $732,200, at slot for the 78th pick.
4-108: RHP Sam Keating (unranked)
Keating is on the right trajectory, with his velocity and stuff improving steadily over the past year. He began sitting consistently in the low 90's this spring, and his slider and curveball have become more distinct from each other. He has a loose arm and an easy delivery, so as long as he stays healthy and continues his current path, he could be a big league starter. Standing 6'3", he's a classic starting pitching prospect. Keating signed for $900,000, which is $403,000 over slot.
26-768: OF Daniel Cabrera (my rank: 73)
Cabrera won't sign here in the 26th round, likely instead attending LSU, but he's a solid hit over power prospect. He has a quick left handed, line drive swing, and he should be a safe bet to hit for average and get on base at higher levels. However, most of his other tools are at or below average, and he isn't overall an exciting prospect. That could change after three years in Baton Rouge, but for now, he'll have to prove he can be more than a one-dimensional player.
Others: 5th rounder Jonny Homza comes from South Anchorage High School in Alaska, but the Padres were able to buy him out of attending Hawaii for $250,000, which is $121,200 under slot. He was drafted as a third baseman despite his ability to catch, and he has a strong swing that is similar to Blake Hunt's. As an extreme cold weather player, he has a lot of work to do, but it could pay off. 9th rounder Alex Cunningham was an integral part of Coastal Carolina's run to the 2016 NCAA Championship, going 10-4 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, but he returned to school this year and was even better. As a senior, he went 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, striking out 117 batters in 106 innings while walking just 24. Already 23, he should be a quick mover through the minors, already seeing a promotion to High Class A Lake Elsinore. 10th rounder Dominic Taccolini played four years at Arkansas, alongside the likes of Andrew Benintendi, Zach Jackson, and Blaine Knight, but he never quite put it together on the mound. He finished with a decent senior year, going 4-1 with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP against tough SEC competition, striking out 49 in 51 innings. Taccolini will also be a quick mover through the minors, likely as a reliever whose stuff could suddenly jump forward in pro ball. 19th rounder Nick Feight was a big reason that UNC-Wilmington's offense was among the most feared in college baseball in 2016, slashing .349/.412/.726 with 21 home runs against admittedly weak Colonial Athletic Association competition. He took a small step back in 2017, slashing .293/.355/.536 with 15 home runs as a junior, and as a first baseman, his bat will have to carry him. The Northern Virginia native (Battlefield HS) performed reasonably well on the Cape (.270/.316/.416), but he's likely an organizational bat unless he can take a big step forward offensively.
Wednesday, July 12, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Los Angeles Dodgers
First 5 rounds: Jeren Kendall (1-23), Morgan Cooper (2-62), Connor Wong (3-100), James Marinan (4-130), Riley Ottesen (5-160)
Also notable: Wills Montgomerie (6-190), Zach Pop (7-220), Rylan Bannon (8-250), Donovan Casey (20-610), Preston Grand Pre (24-730)
The Dodgers leaned college this year, taking just two high schoolers in the first 20 rounds and just five overall in 40 rounds. They also played the overslot/underslot game, going underslot in the second round as well as in rounds five through ten to be able to go well overslot in rounds one, four, and eleven. Even though they stuck with the college route, there are some exciting upside players here, most notably first rounder Jeren Kendall and fifth rounder Riley Ottesen.
1-23: CF Jeren Kendall (my rank: 13)
A candidate to go first overall coming into the season, Kendall saw his stock slip this year not because of a change in performance, but because of the lack thereof. Kendall profiles more like a high school prospect in that he has high upside with lots of tools, but also carries a lot of risk. He performed well at Vanderbilt in the tough SEC this year, slashing .307/.372/.556 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases, showing a quick, powerful swing as well as plus speed and a good arm. Because his speed also plays on defense, he actually has a chance for four plus tools, which is what caused scouts to consider him first overall in the first place, but he has one issue that could hurt him significantly: contact. Teams were hoping that he would improve his strikeout rate from his sophomore year (21.5%), but instead, it actually jumped to 25.1% this year, dwarfing his 8.1% walk rate. He was also a subpar performer in the Cape Cod League, slashing .216/.286/.333 over two years, exacerbating questions about how everything will play up. If the Dodgers can toy with his short swing to improve his contact rate, he could be an All Star. If not, he might just be a fourth outfielder who can do everything but put the bat on the ball. Kendall signed for just under $2.9 million, $194,800 above slot.
2-62: RHP Morgan Cooper (my rank: 69)
Cooper missed the 2015 season, which would have been his sophomore year at Texas, with Tommy John surgery, and his stuff didn't bounce back fully in 2016. However, it did in 2017, as the Longhorn ace went 6-3 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 16 games (15 starts), striking out 110 batters in 89.1 innings. As a starter, he throws in the low to mid 90's, adding a slider and curveball with some good shape, as well as a changeup that has improved. He hasn't proven he has the durability to start for a full MLB season and he may end up as a reliever, but for now he has the upside of a #3 or #4 starter who can move fairly quickly. Cooper signed for $867,500, which is $150,700 below slot.
3-100: C Connor Wong (my rank: 87)
Wong doesn't quite fit the typical catcher mold, coming in at a skinny 5'10" and showing above average speed on the base paths. Still, he slashed .287/.379/.494 with 12 home runs at Houston this year, also seeing time in the infield in addition to behind the plate. He also performed well on the Cape last summer, slashing .313/.354/.442 over 41 games, and with his quick swing, I like his chances to reach the majors. He's not all that dissimilar to current Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes, as even if Wong doesn't show enough arm strength to stay behind the plate, he could play second base in LA. He signed for $547,500, which is $10,400 over slot.
4-130: RHP James Marinan (my rank: 81)
Marinan was a pop-up prospect this year, coming out throwing in the low to mid 90's from a projectable 6'5" frame, though he hasn't proven that his secondaries are anything special. The south Florida high schooler has hit 96 on the gun, his slider is sharp at times, and he has a high ceiling as a #2 starter. The lack of a track record and proven secondary offerings though make him a risky pick. Marinan signed for $822,500, which is $421,500 above slot.
5-160: RHP Riley Ottesen (my rank: 147)
Ottesen started college at Utah two years late due to his Mormon mission in Japan, then wasn't anything special as a draft-eligible freshman in 2016 (2-2, 6.38 ERA, 1.56 WHIP). He took a step forward in 2017, and although he didn't dominate, he went 5-4 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, striking out 72 and walking 33 in 95 innings. He can hit the mid 90's with his fastball and his secondary offerings are coming along, but he turns 23 in October and hasn't really put up any inspiring numbers in the Pac-12. He's likely a future reliever, and the Dodgers have a track record of turning random guys into successful MLB relief pitchers (Kenley Jansen, Grant Dayton). Ottesen signed for $197,500, which is $101,800 below slot.
7-220: RHP Zach Pop (my rank: 135)
Pop is an interesting college arm, standing 6'4" and coming from the University of Kentucky. Pop was decent this year, putting up a 3.48 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP while striking out 20 in 20.2 innings out of the Wildcats bullpen, but it's the stuff that scouts love. Pop can run his fastball into the upper 90's with a hard, if at times loopy, slider. If the Dodgers can tighten up that slider and get it more consistent, he'll easily have two major league pitches to use out of the LA bullpen. His problem, however, is command. He throws with a high effort delivery, and his three quarters arm slot is difficult to repeat, and it led to him walking 14 batters in those 20.2 innings this year. Best case scenario, the Dodgers get a set-up man in the seventh round. Worst case scenario, Pop never reaches the majors and walks everybody he faces. He signed for $147,500, which is $34,700 below slot.
Others: 6th rounder Wills Montgomerie comes from UConn, where he had a successful three year career as a starter (15-8, 3.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) despite being overshadowed by Anthony Kay and Tim Cate in that Husky rotation. A Cape performer (2-2, 1.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 28/10 K/BB), he has inconsistent fastball velocity that can reach 95 at times, but also sometimes sits closer to 90. With a decent slider and inconsistent command, he's probably best off in the bullpen, where he could race Ottesen and Pop to the majors. 8th rounder Rylan Bannon had a breakout year at Xavier this year, slashing .339/.449/.633 with 15 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 61 games, and he's a pretty good infield defender as well. He played third base for the Musketeers, but he may also fit well at second base, his high school position, and projects as a utility man going forward. He signed for $122,500, which is $28,900 below slot. He has also gotten off to a hot start in the Pioneer League, slashing .438/.471/.781 through eight games for Rookie level Ogden. 20th rounder Donovan Casey probably won't sign and will instead return to Boston College for his senior year, where the two-way star could build on one or both of his skillsets. He was considered a better prospect as a hitter this year despite slashing just .286/.370/.362 with two home runs, as he shows above average raw power in batting practice with good whipping action on the barrel. His power has never translated into games, though, as he has difficulty with contact and with squaring the ball up. As a pitcher, he went 5-2 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP out of the bullpen, and he could wind up drafted as a pitcher next year. 24th rounder Preston Grand Pre isn't the most exciting prospect on this list, but he has one of the top baseball names in the draft and slashed .325/.400/.425 for Cal this year. He shows little to no power as well as little ability to draw a walk (6.5%), but he has good enough bat to ball skills and will try to work his way up as a light hitting utility man.
Also notable: Wills Montgomerie (6-190), Zach Pop (7-220), Rylan Bannon (8-250), Donovan Casey (20-610), Preston Grand Pre (24-730)
The Dodgers leaned college this year, taking just two high schoolers in the first 20 rounds and just five overall in 40 rounds. They also played the overslot/underslot game, going underslot in the second round as well as in rounds five through ten to be able to go well overslot in rounds one, four, and eleven. Even though they stuck with the college route, there are some exciting upside players here, most notably first rounder Jeren Kendall and fifth rounder Riley Ottesen.
1-23: CF Jeren Kendall (my rank: 13)
A candidate to go first overall coming into the season, Kendall saw his stock slip this year not because of a change in performance, but because of the lack thereof. Kendall profiles more like a high school prospect in that he has high upside with lots of tools, but also carries a lot of risk. He performed well at Vanderbilt in the tough SEC this year, slashing .307/.372/.556 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases, showing a quick, powerful swing as well as plus speed and a good arm. Because his speed also plays on defense, he actually has a chance for four plus tools, which is what caused scouts to consider him first overall in the first place, but he has one issue that could hurt him significantly: contact. Teams were hoping that he would improve his strikeout rate from his sophomore year (21.5%), but instead, it actually jumped to 25.1% this year, dwarfing his 8.1% walk rate. He was also a subpar performer in the Cape Cod League, slashing .216/.286/.333 over two years, exacerbating questions about how everything will play up. If the Dodgers can toy with his short swing to improve his contact rate, he could be an All Star. If not, he might just be a fourth outfielder who can do everything but put the bat on the ball. Kendall signed for just under $2.9 million, $194,800 above slot.
2-62: RHP Morgan Cooper (my rank: 69)
Cooper missed the 2015 season, which would have been his sophomore year at Texas, with Tommy John surgery, and his stuff didn't bounce back fully in 2016. However, it did in 2017, as the Longhorn ace went 6-3 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 16 games (15 starts), striking out 110 batters in 89.1 innings. As a starter, he throws in the low to mid 90's, adding a slider and curveball with some good shape, as well as a changeup that has improved. He hasn't proven he has the durability to start for a full MLB season and he may end up as a reliever, but for now he has the upside of a #3 or #4 starter who can move fairly quickly. Cooper signed for $867,500, which is $150,700 below slot.
3-100: C Connor Wong (my rank: 87)
Wong doesn't quite fit the typical catcher mold, coming in at a skinny 5'10" and showing above average speed on the base paths. Still, he slashed .287/.379/.494 with 12 home runs at Houston this year, also seeing time in the infield in addition to behind the plate. He also performed well on the Cape last summer, slashing .313/.354/.442 over 41 games, and with his quick swing, I like his chances to reach the majors. He's not all that dissimilar to current Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes, as even if Wong doesn't show enough arm strength to stay behind the plate, he could play second base in LA. He signed for $547,500, which is $10,400 over slot.
4-130: RHP James Marinan (my rank: 81)
Marinan was a pop-up prospect this year, coming out throwing in the low to mid 90's from a projectable 6'5" frame, though he hasn't proven that his secondaries are anything special. The south Florida high schooler has hit 96 on the gun, his slider is sharp at times, and he has a high ceiling as a #2 starter. The lack of a track record and proven secondary offerings though make him a risky pick. Marinan signed for $822,500, which is $421,500 above slot.
5-160: RHP Riley Ottesen (my rank: 147)
Ottesen started college at Utah two years late due to his Mormon mission in Japan, then wasn't anything special as a draft-eligible freshman in 2016 (2-2, 6.38 ERA, 1.56 WHIP). He took a step forward in 2017, and although he didn't dominate, he went 5-4 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, striking out 72 and walking 33 in 95 innings. He can hit the mid 90's with his fastball and his secondary offerings are coming along, but he turns 23 in October and hasn't really put up any inspiring numbers in the Pac-12. He's likely a future reliever, and the Dodgers have a track record of turning random guys into successful MLB relief pitchers (Kenley Jansen, Grant Dayton). Ottesen signed for $197,500, which is $101,800 below slot.
7-220: RHP Zach Pop (my rank: 135)
Pop is an interesting college arm, standing 6'4" and coming from the University of Kentucky. Pop was decent this year, putting up a 3.48 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP while striking out 20 in 20.2 innings out of the Wildcats bullpen, but it's the stuff that scouts love. Pop can run his fastball into the upper 90's with a hard, if at times loopy, slider. If the Dodgers can tighten up that slider and get it more consistent, he'll easily have two major league pitches to use out of the LA bullpen. His problem, however, is command. He throws with a high effort delivery, and his three quarters arm slot is difficult to repeat, and it led to him walking 14 batters in those 20.2 innings this year. Best case scenario, the Dodgers get a set-up man in the seventh round. Worst case scenario, Pop never reaches the majors and walks everybody he faces. He signed for $147,500, which is $34,700 below slot.
Others: 6th rounder Wills Montgomerie comes from UConn, where he had a successful three year career as a starter (15-8, 3.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) despite being overshadowed by Anthony Kay and Tim Cate in that Husky rotation. A Cape performer (2-2, 1.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 28/10 K/BB), he has inconsistent fastball velocity that can reach 95 at times, but also sometimes sits closer to 90. With a decent slider and inconsistent command, he's probably best off in the bullpen, where he could race Ottesen and Pop to the majors. 8th rounder Rylan Bannon had a breakout year at Xavier this year, slashing .339/.449/.633 with 15 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 61 games, and he's a pretty good infield defender as well. He played third base for the Musketeers, but he may also fit well at second base, his high school position, and projects as a utility man going forward. He signed for $122,500, which is $28,900 below slot. He has also gotten off to a hot start in the Pioneer League, slashing .438/.471/.781 through eight games for Rookie level Ogden. 20th rounder Donovan Casey probably won't sign and will instead return to Boston College for his senior year, where the two-way star could build on one or both of his skillsets. He was considered a better prospect as a hitter this year despite slashing just .286/.370/.362 with two home runs, as he shows above average raw power in batting practice with good whipping action on the barrel. His power has never translated into games, though, as he has difficulty with contact and with squaring the ball up. As a pitcher, he went 5-2 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP out of the bullpen, and he could wind up drafted as a pitcher next year. 24th rounder Preston Grand Pre isn't the most exciting prospect on this list, but he has one of the top baseball names in the draft and slashed .325/.400/.425 for Cal this year. He shows little to no power as well as little ability to draw a walk (6.5%), but he has good enough bat to ball skills and will try to work his way up as a light hitting utility man.